It's funny -- when I originally hopped on the Mike Williams bandwagon a couple of weeks ago, his ADP was in the 13th round and he was still sort of flying under the radar.

A few days later, I took Williams in the 10th round of my Industry Insiders Draft:

10.03: Mike Williams, WR
This was one of those there’s-no-one-else-I-like-so-I’m-going-to-take-this-guy picks. Williams has really played well in the preseason and as a rookie, he is already the Bucs clear-cut WR1. Josh Freeman isn’t bad, and the Bucs are probably going to have to throw more than they’d like as they try to stay in games this season, so this could all add up to a top 25 year for Williams.

When I made that pick, one of the other 'insiders' commented, "I think that's the earliest that I've seen Williams go."

I wasn't sure whether or not to take that as an insult, but it struck me as funny when, several days later, Williams went in the 7th round in two of my slow email drafts.

What's the point? Well, it seems like in the world of WRs, the talent drops off a cliff at a certain point in the 7th or 8th round. Once guys like Jeremy Maclin, Mike Wallace, Malcom Floyd, Pierre Garcon, Johnny Knox and Percy Harvin go, things are starting to get tight at WR. Maybe Donald Driver and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are still worthy of 7th or 8th rounders in PPR leagues, but who's left after that? Lee Evans? Bernard Berrian? Braylon Edwards? Most fantasy owners are going to pass up these retreads in favor of the upside of Williams, which means he could very well go as early as the 7th round in 12-team leagues.

That's not to say that there aren't still some interesting wideouts out there. Guys like Laurent Robinson, Jacoby Jones, Santonio Holmes and Louis Murphy are worthwhile picks, but not in the 7th round. Just don't expect to land Mike Williams in the 10th round or later anymore -- that ship has sailed.

Earlier in the week, I tackled the RBs and WRs, and now it's time to discuss late season success with regard to QBs and TEs. Here are a few players that performed well down the stretch and what that success means for the upcoming fantasy season:

QUARTERBACKS

Brett Favre (285 yards, 2.1 TD over the L8 games) was terrific for the Vikings, especially down the stretch. But throw in a bum ankle and a M.I.A. Sidney Rice and things aren't lined up quite as well for ol' #4 in 2009. Rice is especially important considering his ability to go up and retrieve all the ill-advised bombs that Favre has a tendency to chuck up. Favre was QB8 last year and I think he's looking at a finish in the 12-15 range this season...Ben Roethlisberger (310 yards, 1.8 TD over the L6 games) is going to be suspended for the first 4-5 games, and he's going in the 9th or 10th round as a result. This makes him a great value for use in a QBBC, because he's probably going to give you top 10 numbers once he starts his season...Vince Young (198 passing yards, 29 rushing yards, 1.3 TD over the L8 games) had a better second half of the season than Kurt Warner, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Carson Palmer and Joe Flacco, yet he's being drafted behind all of these players (save for the retired Warner) heading into the 2010 season. He has three tough matchups to start the year, but it should be relatively smooth sailing after that.

TIGHT ENDS

Jermichael Finley's strong finish (5.5-72-0.5 TD over the L8 games, including the playoffs) has him poised to be a breakout star in 2010. He's going a little early for my taste, often ahead of a far more proven option in Jason Witten, but he has tremendous upside and is a great pick in the late 4th or early 5th, after the last solid WRs (Steve Smith 1.0, Steve Smith 2.0, Wes Welker, etc.) are off the board. With Donald Driver in the twilight of his career, Finley is poised to become the Packers' #1 or #2 option in the passing game, and that's saying something with the way Aaron Rodgers is throwing the ball...Kevin Boss (3.4-41-0.6 TD over the L9 games) was a big part of the Giants' passing game down the stretch, especially in the red zone. If he can just stay healthy enough to post these kinds of numbers for an entire season, he could finish in the top 10. Given his late round ADP, he's a very solid TE2 with some upside...Fred Davis (4.1-46-0.6 TD) was terrific for the Redskins after Chris Cooley's season-ending injury. Cooley is back now and Davis's draft stock is in the tank, but he might be the only true TE handcuff out there. If you grab Cooley in the middle rounds, be sure to grab Davis as insurance. Donovan McNabb loves to throw to his TE and Washington is hurting at WR2, so if one guy gets the lion's share of the targets, there's a good chance he finishes in the top 10 at the position.

On Sunday, Mike Klis of the Denver Post said that Knowshon Moreno doesn't look close to returning to practice:

...from here, running back Knowshon Moreno and receiver Demaryius Thomas don’t look anywhere near close to returning. Both are running and cutting very gingerly.

Considering Moreno suffered his hamstring injury Aug. 1 _ four weeks ago today _ either he’s a slow healer or he received a least a partial tear. I’m betting on the latter.

On Monday, Klis reported that Josh McDaniels 'indicated' Moreno would practice this week:

In his postgame comments, Broncos coach Josh McDaniels indicated starting tailback Knowshon Moreno would practice this week. Moreno’s primary backup, Correll Buckhalter, returned to practice on a limited basis last week but did not play in the preseason game Sunday night against Pittsburgh.

“I think that’s always best for a running back – same thing with (RB Correll Buckhalter) – to get hit before they actually go on to a regular-season game,” McDaniels said. “”But, if that’s not the best thing for us to do, the smartest decision to make, then we’ll probably hold off on that. We’re going to practice this week – we’ll be in pads on Tuesday and we’ll see if we can bang one or both of them around if they’re ready to go by then. We don’t have a timetable yet but both of them are getting close.”

The bit about the hamstring being a tear and not a strain is somewhat worrisome. Moreno is slipping in drafts and owners should proceed with caution. I just passed him up for Mike Sims-Walker in the late 5th, but I'd grab him in the 6th if he makes it back to me. It's vital that anyone who picks Moreno grab his handcuff, Correll Buckhalter, who his battling his own injury at the moment. The good news is that Buck is usually around very late in drafts.

For what it's worth, the team is listing him as probable for Week 1.

Tuesday Update: He has been cleared for practice, but Rotoworld is reporting that Moreno is telling people that he's only at about 80% right now.

One of the numbers I look at when evaluating players, especially young or up-and-coming players, is their performance over the last half of the season. I've found that, typically, if a guy plays well late in the season, he will take that momentum/success into the next season.

With that in mind, here are several players at each position that played a lot better in the second half of the 2009 season than they did early on.

RUNNING BACKS

I've outlined Jamaal Charles's resume here, and I think it's time people get back on his bandwagon...Fred Jackson (114 total ypg, 0.5 TD over the L6 games) was probably going to start for the Bills, but an injury has opened the door for C.J. Spiller, who has been electric...Jerome Harrison (198 total ypg, 1.7 TDs over the L3 games) is holding onto RB1 duties in Cleveland at this point, but rookie Montario Hardesty is back practicing and there's a good chance that he'll eat into Harrison's carries...Justin Forsett (88 total ypg, 0.6 TD over the L8 games) was great down the stretch for the Seahawks, but he's mired in a three-way battle with Leon Washington and Julius Jones...Knowshon Moreno (84 total ypg, 0.8 TD over the L8 games) is the clear starter in Denver, when healthy, but he can't seem to stay on the field...Chris Wells (73 total ypg, 0.6 TD over the L11 games) is clearly the superior runner in Arizona, yet he's still relegated to backup duties behind Tim Hightower...With the season-ending injury to Ben Tate, Arian Foster (121 total ypg, 1.5 TDs over the L2 games) has gone from an RB3-type 8th or 9th round sleeper to a bona fide RB2-quality 4th round pick.

All of these players are worth looking for on draft day, and only Forsett seems to be overvalued at this point in the preseason.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Anquan Boldin (6.1-78-0.5 over the L8 games) had a nice finish to the 2009 season, but he's joining a new, run-oriented offense in Baltimore. I'd still expect top 20 numbers out of him, but a top 10 finish seems unlikely...Calvin Johnson (5.4-79-0.5) has all the talent in the world, but he has a spotty injury history and hasn't much consistency at QB. With Matthew Stafford looking like the real deal, CJ is in line for a big year, assuming he stays healthy...Robert Meachem (4.1-58-0.8 over the L9 games) was dynamite for the Saints down the stretch and became something of a touchdown machine. He's battling a toe injury right now, but assuming he's good to go by Week 1, he should settle into the Saints' WR2 role, which could mean a top 20 finish...The performance of Terrell Owens (4-69-0.5 over the L8 games) late in the season just goes to show that he still has some gas left in the tank. With a better QB throwing to him, he should have a solid WR3-type year...Chris Chambers (4-68-0.4) blew up after joining the Chiefs in the middle of last season. But he's always been a fantasy tease, and with the re-emergence of freshly-out-of-the-doghouse Dwayne Bowe, he's probably not going to post those kinds of numbers again. Still, he'd be a good WR4/WR5 bye week fill in...Michael Crabtree (4.4-57-0.2 over L11 games) sure didn't show any ill effects from his early season holdout. His numbers were somewhat modest, but the fact that he was even able to produce at that level with no preseason work and no rapport with Alex Smith is a testament to his considerable talent. He should take a step forward into the top 20 this season...Jabar Gaffney (4.4-62-0.3 over the L7 games) appears to be the WR1 in Denver and seems to have a good relationship with Kyle Orton. He's not going to catch a bunch of touchdowns, but he's a worthwhile reserve in PPR leagues...Malcom Floyd (4.0-62-0.0 over the L8 games) will definitely benefit from the absence of Vincent Jackson and will take over WR1 duties in San Diego. If he gets Jackson's targets (7.1 per game) and converts at the same rate and yardage as he did last season (59.2%, 17.2 ypc), he's looking at an 1150-yard season...Brandon Gibson (4.3-44-0.1 over the L8 games) put up decent PPR numbers last season, but he's listed behind Danny Amendola on the Rams' depth chart, which means he has competition for that underneath stuff that he made a living with last season...Brian Hartline (2.7-45-0.3 over the L7 games) obviously didn't set the world on fire, but he was consistently involved in his rookie season and now he's locked into the starting job opposite Brandon Marshall. He could play Wes Welker to Marshall's Randy Moss. At this point, Hartline is only worth a look in PPR leagues.

Heading into the preseason, Jamaal Charles's stock was quite high, and for good reason. The 23 year-old had just come off an eight-game stretch where he averaged 140.8 total yards and 1.0 TD per game. He was going in the early second -- I even saw a few drafts where he was going in the late first -- but with the acquisition of Thomas Jones and the beginning of Todd Haley's mind games (i.e. refusing to list Charles atop the Chiefs' depth chart), Charles's stock has slipped into the late 3rd/early 4th.

I just snagged him in a slow email draft at 3.10 on the heels of his first start of the preseason. He fumbled his first attempt, but finished with 40 yards on six carries and caught a 20-yard pass. During the preseason, Charles has averaged 8.2 yards per touch versus TJ's 3.2. Even Haley said that he'd "be a fool" if he didn't play Charles given that type of disparity in production:

"We want this guy to be playing when the games count," said Haley. "He's coming off a pretty significant (surgery). ... We want him to be playing at a high level." Haley admitted he'd "be a fool" to not play Charles if he's severely outproducing Thomas Jones in terms of yards per carry. Added the coach: "We've got great competition. Both of those guys want to be pretty good."

Moreover, Footballguys lists KC's schedule as the second-easiest for RBs, predicting four favorable matchups through Week 16 (along with zero unfavorable matchups).

I'd still take Pierre Thomas and maybe even Ryan Grant ahead of Charles, but once they're off the board and I'm staring at guys like LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Knowshon Moreno, Chris Wells and Jahvid Best, Charles is looking awfully good.

There were a couple of pieces of good news for Owen Daniels this week. First, he had an MRI that said he was fully healed. Later, he was cleared to play by the noted sports physician Dr. James Andrews, who was the one who surgically repaired the torn ACL in Daniels' right knee.

"Owen's been cleared; totally healthy," Kubiak said on Wednesday. "I was out on the practice field during special teams and he called (head athletic trainer Geoff Kaplan) and we talked to Dr. Andrews, and boy, he's fired up. It's great for our team."

Daniels has been going in the late 7th for the whole month of August, but when you look at his average numbers for the first seven games of the season -- 5.6 catches for 71 yards and 0.7 TDs -- that's 17.0 fantasy points per game in a PPR league, which are TE1-type numbers.

Sure, he's a risk, and he's probably not going to come out in Week 1 and tear up the Colts' defense, but he is a proven player and the doctors are saying that he's ready to go.

After Tony Gonzalez and Brent Celek are off the board, I'd start thinking about Daniels in the 6th round. I've been targeting Zach Miller in the 8th, and will continue to do so, but Daniels is the more proven player, so it's a different kind of risk.

Earlier this week, I summarized my draft in the FSWA Industry Insiders League. My colleague (and Bullz-Eye Editor-In-Chief), Jamey Codding, is also in the league this year and the draft for his division was held last night.

The results for each round are below. For the first 10 rounds, I'll analyze each pick while comparing his strategy to mine, and Jamey will provide an outline of his thinking for each selection.

Round 1
#1 Team Bob Harris - Chris Johnson, RB, TEN
#2 KFFL- R. Bonini - Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN
#3 Rotowire Houston-Smith - Ray Rice, RB, BAL
#4 Sporting News - Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC
#5 Fantasy Insights - Smitty - Andre Johnson, WR, HOU
#6 Team Shaw - Michael Turner, RB, ATL
#7 Draft Sharks - Smola - Frank Gore, RB, SFO
#8 Team J. Levit - Randy Moss, WR, NWE
#9 ProSportsBlogging Brian Moore - Steven Jackson, RB, STL
#10 The Scores Report - Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
#11 CBSSports - Eisenberg - Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
#12 KFFL - McRae - Ryan Mathews, RB, SDG

JP's Analysis: There were no huge surprises in the 1st, and Jamey did well to grab arguably the most consistent WR of the last five years in Reggie Wayne. It's a PPR league where owners can start up to four wideouts, so it makes a lot of sense to draft a WR late in the first when all of the top RBs are already gone.

Jamey's Thoughts: I can probably count on one hand the number of times I've taken a receiver in the first round, but after doing a couple of mock drafts and getting a feel for the kind of RB and WR that would be available at the 3/4 turn, I did the unthinkable (for me) and committed to going WR/WR with my first two picks. I was hoping to get Moss here but, despite some concerns about the crowded receiving corps in Indy, I was happy to land Peyton Manning's #1 in Wayne, a PPR rock.

Round 2
#1 KFFL - McRae - DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR
#2 CBSSports - Eisenberg - Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI
#3 The Scores Report - Miles Austin, WR, DAL
#4 ProSportsBlogging Brian Moore - Drew Brees, QB, NOR
#5 Team J. Levit - Brandon Marshall, WR, MIA
#6 Draft Sharks - Smola - Roddy White, WR, ATL
#7 Team Shaw - Ryan Grant, RB, GNB
#8 Fantasy Insights - Smitty - Aaron Rodgers, QB, GNB
#9 Sporting News - Steve Smith, WR, NYG
#10 Rotowire Houston-Smith - Greg Jennings, WR, GNB
#11 KFFL- R. Bonini - Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL
#12 Team Bob Harris - Marques Colston, WR, NOR

JP's Analysis: Going WR-WR in the first two rounds is a bold yet intriguing strategy for those saddled with a late first round pick. There is good depth at RB this season, so he's figuring that he'll be able to get two solid starters at the 3/4 turn. And just look -- only one RB (Ryan Grant) was taken in the remainder of the 2nd round. I love Miles Austin in the 2nd this season, or even at 1.11 or 1.12 in the first.

Jamey's Thoughts: I actually like Austin more than Wayne but figured I had a better chance of landing Austin at 2.3 than Reggie. With the #1 receivers in two of the game's most potent passing offenses locked in, I felt pretty good about the WR/WR strategy. Now...the long wait to see which running backs lasted to 3.10.

Round 3
#1 Team Bob Harris - Cedric Benson, RB, CIN
#2 KFFL- R. Bonini - Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
#3 Rotowire Houston-Smith - Chad Ochocinco, WR, CIN
#4 Sporting News - DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
#5 Fantasy Insights - Smitty - Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ
#6 Team Shaw - Dallas Clark, TE, IND
#7 Draft Sharks - Smola - Jamaal Charles, RB, KAN
#8 Team J. Levit - Peyton Manning, QB, IND
#9 ProSportsBlogging Brian Moore - Matt Forte, RB, CHI
#10 The Scores Report - Pierre Thomas, RB, NOR
#11 CBSSports - Eisenberg - Joseph Addai, RB, IND
#12 KFFL - McRae - Wes Welker, WR, NWE

JP's Analysis: I also went WR-WR in my draft, and Thomas ended up going 3.09. Jamey is benefiting here from a few owners going off the reservation a bit. Dallas Clark is an okay pick in the third, but Chad Ochocinco and Cedric Benson could have been had in the 4th round. This essentially pushed Thomas down to 3.10, and Jamey was happy to pounce. Wayne-Austin-Thomas = great start.

Jamey's Thoughts: I had visions of Mendenhall falling into my lap when he made it through the second round (he was squarely on my radar with my first or second pick, until I changed my strategy) but those hopes were quickly dashed. After that, I had my eye on three guys -- Jamaal Charles, Pierre Thomas and LeSean McCoy -- for my RB1, hoping the WR/WR strategy would pay off. When Charles went off the board at #7, I wondered if my heart was about to be broken with all three of my guys going in the three picks proceeding mine. Instead, I nabbed the #1 back in an explosive offense. To echo JP's analysis, Wayne+Austin+Thomas = great start. Now I just have to hope McCoy slips back to me in the fourth....

Round 4
#1 KFFL - McRae - Jahvid Best, RB, DET
#2 CBSSports - Eisenberg - Ronnie Brown, RB, MIA
#3 The Scores Report - Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN
#4 ProSportsBlogging Brian Moore - Antonio Gates, TE, SDG
#5 Team J. Levit - Chris Wells, RB, ARI
#6 Draft Sharks - Smola - Michael Crabtree, WR, SFO
#7 Team Shaw - LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI
#8 Fantasy Insights - Smitty - Steve Smith, WR, CAR
#9 Sporting News - Jason Witten, TE, DAL
#10 Rotowire Houston-Smith - Hines Ward, WR, PIT
#11 KFFL- R. Bonini - Mike Sims-Walker, WR, JAC
#12 Team Bob Harris - Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR

JP's Analysis: Whereas I had a pretty easy decision in the 4th (Chris Wells or Ochocinco), Jamey had to choose amongst Moreno, Wells and LeSean McCoy. McCoy has looked good in the preseason and his stock seems to be on the rise, but Jamey elected to go with Moreno, who has had a hamstring issue in camp. This is really six one way and half a dozen the other.

Jamey's Thoughts: Wait...what? McCoy was there for the taking but I talked myself into Moreno. I typically avoid injury concerns like this, especially this early with a RB who has a bum hamstring, but assuming he recovers in time for Week 1, there's no doubt in my mind that Moreno will get more carries and score more TDs than McCoy, although McCoy should have more catches. Still, take the hamstring out of the equation (which, I admit, isn't easy to do), and Moreno just feels like the safer pick.

Round 5
#1 Team Bob Harris - Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG
#2 KFFL- R. Bonini - Tony Romo, QB, DAL
#3 Rotowire Houston-Smith - Tom Brady, QB, NWE
#4 Sporting News - Felix Jones, RB, DAL
#5 Fantasy Insights - Smitty - Arian Foster, RB, HOU
#6 Team Shaw - Matt Schaub, QB, HOU
#7 Draft Sharks - Smola - Jermichael Finley, TE, GNB
#8 Team J. Levit - Vernon Davis, TE, SFO
#9 ProSportsBlogging Brian Moore - Dwayne Bowe, WR, KAN
#10 The Scores Report - Percy Harvin, WR, MIN
#11 CBSSports - Eisenberg - Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG
#12 KFFL - McRae - Terrell Owens, WR, CIN

JP's Analysis: I landed Witten at 5.10, but both he and Vernon Davis were already gone in Jamey's draft. Percy Harvin is a high risk/high reward pick, especially with Sidney Rice missing half the season. If he can get those migraines under control, he's in for a big season. I don't think I would have done anything differently here, given the options.

Jamey's Thoughts: With two RB and two WR in place, it was time to build some depth. I would have loved to get Steve Smith 1.0 or Hines Ward here as a WR3 but that wasn't in the cards, and I also was considering Dwayne Bowe but was ultimately relieved when he was taken one pick before me. Something about that situation just doesn't sit well with me. In the end, I love the Harvin pick, even more so with Sidney Rice hitting the shelf. I could see him racking up a ton of catches as the Vikes' new #1 receiver. Admittedly, the migraine concerns are, well, concerning, and I'd probably feel more comfortable with Harvin as my WR4, but I'm nonetheless excited to see what he can do.

Round 6
#1 KFFL - McRae - T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, SEA
#2 CBSSports - Eisenberg - Malcom Floyd, WR, SDG
#3 The Scores Report - Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
#4 ProSportsBlogging Brian Moore - Marion Barber, RB, DAL
#5 Team J. Levit - Jay Cutler, QB, CHI
#6 Draft Sharks - Smola - Pierre Garcon, WR, IND
#7 Team Shaw - Santana Moss, WR, WAS
#8 Fantasy Insights - Smitty - Tony Gonzalez, TE, ATL
#9 Sporting News - Philip Rivers, QB, SDG
#10 Rotowire Houston-Smith - Brent Celek, TE, PHI
#11 KFFL- R. Bonini - Reggie Bush, RB, NOR
#12 Team Bob Harris - Joe Flacco, QB, BAL

JP's Analysis: After taking Harvin at 5.10, I probably would have recommended a RB here, and there were a few good RB3 candidates available, including Reggie Bush (still solid in PPR leagues) and C.J. Spiller. But I can't fault Jamey for going after the up-and-coming Mike Wallace, who should have a fine year as Pittsburgh's deep threat.

Jamey's Thoughts: None of the backs who were still on the board got my motor running (I've never been much of a Bush fan, for several reasons), so I went with the upside play here. Having Wayne and Austin gives me all sorts of stability at WR but I still felt the need to back up my Harvin pick with another WR I felt comfortable starting. And, as JP stated earlier, I may very well end up starting all four WR.

Round 7
#1 Team Bob Harris - Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI
#2 KFFL- R. Bonini - Kellen Winslow, TE, TAM
#3 Rotowire Houston-Smith - C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF
#4 Sporting News - Donald Driver, WR, GNB
#5 Fantasy Insights - Smitty - Michael Bush, RB, OAK
#6 Team Shaw - Bernard Berrian, WR, MIN
#7 Draft Sharks - Smola - Johnny Knox, WR, CHI
#8 Team J. Levit - Carnell Williams, RB, TAM
#9 ProSportsBlogging Brian Moore - Robert Meachem, WR, NOR
#10 The Scores Report - Kevin Kolb, QB, PHI
#11 CBSSports - Eisenberg - Matt Ryan, QB, ATL
#12 KFFL - McRae - Brett Favre, QB, MIN

JP's Analysis: I ended up with Kolb in the 8th, and I think we'll both be happy with his production this season. He is not a sure thing, however, so fantasy owners who don't want to deal with the risk should try QBBC. Eli Manning went 9.07 and Ben Roethlisberger went 11.11, so Jamey would have had to take Eli at 8.03, which probably seemed early considering Kolb's availability at 7.10. In the end, I don't think Kolb owners have much to worry about, but the guy is a bit unproven.

Jamey's Thoughts: The 18 picks between my 6th and 7th round selections were torturous because I knew I needed a QB desperately and there were only four that I felt comfortable with as my QB1: Rivers, Flacco, Cutler and Kolb. Of course, the first three went before we even got out of the sixth. I thought I was doomed. Thankfully, Kolb made it back to me and, honestly, I like him about as much as I like the other three. Kolb looked very good against the Bengals last week and, although he has yet to throw a preseason TD, he's 17-for-28 overall with a 7.9 YPA average. In this offense and with these weapons, I think the bust factor is very low here and the Eagles, judging by the McNabb trade, seem to agree. Are you going to argue with Andy Reid?

Round 8
#1 KFFL - McRae - Lee Evans, WR, BUF
#2 CBSSports - Eisenberg - Chris Cooley, TE, WAS
#3 The Scores Report - Jerome Harrison, RB, CLE
#4 ProSportsBlogging Brian Moore - Steve Breaston, WR, ARI
#5 Team J. Levit - Clinton Portis, RB, WAS
#6 Draft Sharks - Smola - Justin Forsett, RB, SEA
#7 Team Shaw - Devin Hester, WR, CHI
#8 Fantasy Insights - Smitty - Tim Hightower, RB, ARI
#9 Sporting News - Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG
#10 Rotowire Houston-Smith - Ricky Williams, RB, MIA
#11 KFFL- R. Bonini - Dez Bryant, WR, DAL
#12 Team Bob Harris - Laurence Maroney, RB, NWE

JP's Analysis: Jamey had his pick of Harrison, Portis, Forsett and Jacobs in the 8th. (They were all gone by the 7th in my draft. Grrr.) Harrison has a lot of upside, but it's not clear what rookie Montario Hardesty's role is going to be once he starts practicing again. Anyone who drafts Harrison should target Hardesty as a handcuff. I'm sure that's what Jamey intended to do, but as you'll see next round, it didn't work out. Regardless, the Browns biggest strength is their offensive line, so whomever gets the lion's share of carries in Cleveland is bound to have a RB3-type year.

Jamey's Thoughts: I waited a lot longer than I would have liked to get my third RB, but was pleased to snag Harrison here. I'm not touching Portis this season, I'm not at all confident in Jacobs and there's a whole bunch of uncertainty in that Seattle backfield. Things aren't all that much clearer in Cleveland with the rookie Hardesty on board, but as a Browns fan, I've watched Harrison throughout his career and I've long been convinced that he could be a dangerous back if given the opportunity. He got that opportunity last year and exploded. Will he get a chance to shine again this year? My guess is Hardesty and Harrison will both get plenty of work in a traditional (these days, anyway) thunder-and-lightning scenario. I like Hardesty but his minor preseason knee injury does nothing to alleviate durability concerns, and even when he's healthy, Harrison has the higher PPR ceiling. I'm telling you, the dude is electric on screens.

Round 9
#1 Team Bob Harris - Carson Palmer, QB, CIN
#2 KFFL- R. Bonini - Steve Slaton, RB, HOU
#3 Rotowire Houston-Smith - Darren Sproles, RB, SDG
#4 Sporting News - Owen Daniels, TE, HOU
#5 Fantasy Insights - Smitty - Mike Williams, WR, TAM
#6 Team Shaw - New York Jets, D/ST, NYJ
#7 Draft Sharks - Smola - Eli Manning, QB, NYG
#8 Team J. Levit - Jabar Gaffney, WR, DEN
#9 ProSportsBlogging Brian Moore - Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
#10 The Scores Report - Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
#11 CBSSports - Eisenberg - LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ
#12 KFFL - McRae - Montario Hardesty, RB, CLE

JP's Analysis: Hardesty has been going in the late 10th in recent drafts, so I'm guessing Jamey was irritated when he went at 9.12. Considering who he was targeting next round, I don't think he was planning to take Hardesty at 10.03, which might come back to haunt him. Jackson isn't a bad pick here, but Spiller has looked pretty good in the preseason as he's been forced into the starting role. I think I would have preferred to lock up the Cleveland running game here.

Jamey's Thoughts: I had been eying Jackson for a few rounds but assumed I could keep waiting. I was right. Spiller is obviously a concern but, again, I think both backs will get enough work to be useful fantasy plays. I would have taken Hardesty if he lasted another round or two but, all things being equal, I like Jackson's skill set better and feel pretty good with him as my RB4.

Round 10
#1 KFFL - McRae - Dexter McCluster, WR, KAN
#2 CBSSports - Eisenberg - Vincent Jackson, WR, SDG
#3 The Scores Report - Zach Miller, TE, OAK
#4 ProSportsBlogging Brian Moore - Derrick Mason, WR, BAL
#5 Team J. Levit - Nate Burleson, WR, DET
#6 Draft Sharks - Smola - Darren McFadden, RB, OAK
#7 Team Shaw - Thomas Jones, RB, KAN
#8 Fantasy Insights - Smitty - Santonio Holmes, WR, NYJ
#9 Sporting News - Devin Aromashodu, WR, CHI
#10 Rotowire Houston-Smith - Braylon Edwards, WR, NYJ
#11 KFFL- R. Bonini - Sidney Rice, WR, MIN
#12 Team Bob Harris - Greg Olsen, TE, CHI

JP's Analysis: Zach Miller in the 10th is a beautiful pick. I probably would have taken him 9.10 because "KFFL-McRae" hadn't yet drafted a TE (and I'd be worried that he'd snag him on the turn), so I still would have missed out on Hardesty. I think Miller is going to have a great season and would only draft a TE earlier in the draft if there was great value or there wasn't anyone else there that I liked.

Jamey's Thoughts: There were a whole bunch of mid-tier TE that I liked but I never seemed to be in the right situation to take them. Here, with four RB and four WR plus my starting QB in place, I grabbed Miller after reading this update for him on Rotoworld: "Raiders TE Zach Miller was a 'one-man wrecking crew' in Wednesday's passing drills. It's been a common sight at Raiders camp." This guy can play, and Jason Campbell could help him become an elite fantasy TE.

Here's how his entire roster came together:

QB: Kolb, Cassel, Orton
RB: Thomas, Moreno, Harrison, F. Jackson, Washington
WR: Wayne, Austin, Harvin, Wallace, Collie, Hartline, Nelson
TE: Z. Miller, Watson
K: Longwell
DT: NE, OAK

JP's Analysis: I'm sure Jamey was hoping to do better than Cassel and Orton as Kolb's backups and I believe he would have been better served going after Alex Smith and/or David Garrard who were both available in the 13th and 14th. Of that group, I'm most optimistic about Smith, who averaged 16.7 fantasy points per game in his 11 starts last year.

Assuming Kolb produces, this is a very balanced squad. The strength is obviously the receiver position, but the RBs are better than average and Zach Miller provides a lot of upside at TE.

Jamey's Thoughts: Um...yeah, I had my sights set a little higher than Cassel and Orton coming into the draft, to be sure. If I had it to do over again, I probably would have taken Vince Young or Chad Henne in the 12th instead of Leon Washington, but he was the last RB that I liked to round out my backfield and, at the time, he seemed like the right choice. However, I'm confident enough in Kolb that I'm not overly concerned with my two backups, although I chose these two (back-to-back in the 13th and 14th) for some upside (Cassel) and stability (Orton). Can Charlie Weis get the most out of Cassel in his second year as the KC starter? And nobody in Denver is taking Orton's job away this season. Quinn? Tebow? Please. He's not a superstar, but would you believe that Orton finished 14th overall in ESPN's standard scoring format last season? In fact, he was directly behind Kurt Warner and several spots ahead of Carson Palmer, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan and David Garrard. There's value here.

As for the rest of my team, I'd say the WR/WR strategy certainly paid off. If I had gone with Mendenhall with either of my first two picks, I would have been left with the likes of Wes Welker, Michael Crabtree, Steve Smith 1.0 and Hines Ward as my WR2. All fine players, sure, but I'm feeling pretty damn good about my top two guys, especially considering I was able to grab a pair of clear-cut starting RB in Pierre Thomas and Knowshon Moreno and still back them up with some solid depth. Overall, I was happy with my first FSWA draft. Now, it's time to see if I can join JP in the playoffs this year.

Adam Levitan of Rotoworld released his list of late-round fliers, and there are a few interesting names to be found:

1. JACOBY JONES: Kevin Walter continues to keep his nose in front as the starter, but Jones is right there.

For a guy that only had 27 catches last season, Jones had some good games. He went for 2-73-1 against Tennessee, 7-94-1 in two games against Indy, and finished with a total of 7-144-2 over the last two games against the Dolphins and Pats. Walter is better suited for the slot, but Jones has to be consistent to get starter's snaps, especially if Owen Daniels is anywhere close to 100%.

2. JABAR GAFFNEY: Locked in as a starter and looking like Kyle Orton’s favorite target. How does he have an ADP of 160?

I'm starting to warm up to Gaffney, who continues to be Orton's first choice in the passing game. A career filled with fantasy disappointment ensures that you'll be able to get him late. His value is enhanced in PPR leagues.

3. KAREEM HUGGINS: He’s up to No. 2 on the Bucs’ depth chart, ahead of Derrick Ward. With Cadillac Williams still a major injury risk, Huggins should be drafted in all leagues at this point.

I was a fan of Ward when he went to TB, so I'm surprised that he's on the outs given what they're paying him, but there is a buzz about the 'explosive' Huggins.

5. MIKE WILLIAMS (TB): The rookie has drawn praise from everyone under the sun. Strong bet to lead the Bucs in receiving yards.

I reached for him in the early 10th in my industry insiders league, but I wanted to lock him up in at least one league. He's the WR1 in Tampa Bay and Josh Freeman is a capable QB. Finishing in the top 30 is a real possibility.

7. LEGEDU NAANEE: He’s the clear No. 2 receiver in San Diego and is dropping jaws with his raw skills. Tons of upside here.

Owners are all over Maclom Floyd, But Naanee has considerable athleticism. Remember, with Gates controlling the middle of the field, the third option in the SD passing game generally doesn't do a whole lot.

8. OWEN DANIELS: Coming off ACL surgery, he’s hoping to be cleared as soon as this week. He’s a beast when healthy and is worth a stash as well if there’s roster space.

It's all about that knee. Daniels is in a contract year so he's going to gut it out if he can. He's not a bad guy to grab if you take Zach Miller or Visanthe Shiancoe later on, assuming you want to form a little TE committee.

In case you haven't heard, Sidney Rice will be out until midseason after undergoing hip surgery. Obviously, this is a big loss for the Vikings, but what about the fantasy implications?

Let's start with Rice himself. He's going to miss the first half of the season and that assumes his recovery goes to plan. Rice is no more than a late-round pick. Stash him on your roster if you have the space and hope that he makes it back for the stretch run.

This news theoretically bumps up Harvin's stock a bit, but with his migraine issues, there's no guarantee he's going to play 16 games either. He's been going 6.10 over the last week, and while I'd rather have Santana Moss at this point, Harvin is not a bad pick in the 6th or the 7th. But don't draft him unless you have a high tolerance for week-to-week uncertainty. That's just how it's going to be with Harvin, at least for this year.

Bernard Berrian seemingly gets the biggest bump of all the Viking players, and a 29 years old, he has plenty of football left to play. But Berrian is not Rice, so don't expect anything more than fantasy WR3-type numbers. He's currently going in the 14th, but I'd start to think about him in the 10th. And remember, he could be pushed back to the bench midseason if Rice comes back.

I'd also bump up Visanthe Shiancoe a bit more. I already liked him as a mid- to late-round sleeper after he posted TE5-type numbers over the last half of the '09 season. Favre loves to throw to his tight end, especially around the goal line, and with Rice out, he'll lean on Shiancoe even more.

As for Favre himself, this will probably hurt his numbers. He has a tendency to throw the ball up for grabs, and Rice excelled at using his length and leaping ability to go up and snag the ball out of the air. I'd expect fewer yards, fewer TDs and more picks. That's just the nature of the beast.

The last guy to consider is Adrian Peterson. With Rice out, the defense will be able to crowd the box a bit more, but he'll likely get more carries with the Vikings taking a more conservative approach offensively. His ypc will probably dip a bit, but more carries could offset this. I would still draft him in the top 4.

For the third straight season, I was invited to join the Fantasy Sports Writers Association's Industry Insiders League. Last season, I made the playoffs and finished fourth out of 60 teams after scoring the most points in my 12-team division during the regular season. In 2008, I also made the postseason and finished second in my division in points scored.

The following is a run through of the first half of the draft. Keep in mind that this is a high-performance PPR league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 DT.

1.10: Randy Moss, WR
I drew the 10th pick -- grrr -- and knew I was probably going to have to take a WR with at least one of my first two picks in order to keep pace with the owners picking earlier in the first round. It's a PPR league and we can start up to four WRs, so wideouts are a vital part of the first couple of rounds. One RB/RB combo I was considering was Rashard Mendenhall and Jamaal Charles, but when my pick came up I elected to go with the top WR on my board, Randy Moss. The top four RBs, Andre Johnson and Frank Gore were off the board, and in the two seasons where he's had Tom Brady as his QB, Moss has finished WR4 (in 2009) and WR1 (in 2007). And it didn't hurt that his offseason workout ensures that he'll be in top physical condition heading into the season. Regarding the other available WRs, Larry Fitzgerald's QB situation worries me a little and Reggie Wayne has to fight for targets with several other capable receivers. Moss will get plenty of looks even with Wes Welker working the underneath stuff and he's always a top target in the redzone.

2.03: Larry Fitzgerald, WR
Ryan Matthews, Reggie Wayne, Drew Brees and Rashard Mendenhall went on the turn, so it was down to Fitzy, Roddy White and Jamaal Charles for me at 2.03. Todd Haley is playing mind games with Charles in KC, and even though he tore up the league last season, I didn't feel comfortable taking him here. Besides, I liked the RB talent that has been slipping into the late third and early fourth rounds in mock drafts this summer. So I went with Fitzy, Matt Leinart be damned. With Anquan Boldin in Baltimore, Fitzgerald is bound to get a few more targets, right?

3.10: Ryan Grant, RB
Grant isn't going to catch many passes, but he was RB9 last season and will get plenty of goal line carries in the Packers' potent offensive attack. The remaining WRs weren't too enticing (Welker, Colston and both Steve Smiths were gone), so I was definitely looking RB here. DeAngelo Williams went 3.08 and Pierre Thomas went 3.09, and I would have drafted either before Grant. But with Moss and Fitzy already on the roster, I feel more than comfortable going with Grant as my RB1.

4.03: Chris Wells, RB
Matt Forte, Knowshon Moreno, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady went on the turn, so my decision here was between Chris Wells and Chad Ochocinco. Wells scored 105 points in the last eight games (that's an RB11 pace), and the Cardinals figure to run the ball more now that Matt Leinart is under center. Wells averaged 4.5 ypc and showed great vision and speed last season, scoring seven times in his last eight games.

5.10: Jason Witten, TE
In the 4th and 5th rounds, a number of RBs -- Addai, Best, Benson, Foster, Bradshaw, Spiller, Jones -- were drafted, leaving me with just one RB that I liked on this turn: Ronnie Brown. By his standards, Jason Witten had a down year last season, finishing TE6, but he scored 120 points over his last eight games, so he came on when it counted. Those are TE2 numbers. I also considered Brown, Hakeem Nicks and Hines Ward here, but Witten is a good solid pick with some upside, so I grabbed him.

6.03: Hines Ward, WR
Do I regret taking Ward over Ronnie Brown here? Given the way the rest of the draft went, maybe a little. I thought that I'd be able to snag someone like Jerome Harrison, Michael Bush or Carnell Williams with my 7th round pick to give myself a decent RB3, so I instead elected to go with Ward, who is perennially undervalued in PPR leagues. Over the last three seasons, he has finished as WR14, WR15 and WR25 (because he missed three games in '07 due to injury). Sure, he's 34, but his biggest threat to targets (Santonio Holmes) is gone and the guy had 95 catches last season. There's no reason he should be the 25th wideout drafted.

7.10: Terrell Owens, WR
With the aforementioned Harrison, M. Bush and Williams off the board -- sigh -- it was at this point that I decided that I'd be starting four WRs most weeks and relying on Grant and Wells to carry the load at RB. I normally wouldn't touch Owens, but with the way he's played in the preseason, he's too good to pass up in the 7th round. Besides, if he gets off to a good start, I could always trade him for some RB depth.

8.03: Kevin Kolb, QB
Again, with my lack of RB depth, I probably should have drafted Darren Sproles here, but I like Kolb's upside in the 8th round. Unproven? Yes. But he threw for 320+ yards and two TD in each of his two starts last season and has looked sharp in the preseason. Andy Reid loves to throw the ball, so there's a decent chance that Kolb's numbers will be gaudy enough to have him in the Top 5 by season's end.

9.10: Tim Hightower, RB
Damn, Sproles went 9.06. Sigh. With my last RB3 sleeper gone, I elected to shore up the running game by taking Hightower, who will be a Top 15 RB if Wells were to go down. In fact, he catches enough passes that I wouldn't feel terrible about starting him alongside Wells during Grant's bye week.

10.03: Mike Williams, WR
This was one of those there's-no-one-else-I-like-so-I'm-going-to-take-this-guy picks. Williams has really played well in the preseason and as a rookie, he is already the Bucs clear-cut WR1. Josh Freeman isn't bad, and the Bucs are probably going to have to throw more than they'd like as they try to stay in games this season, so this could all add up to a top 25 year for Williams.

That pretty much sums up the first half of the draft. I won't bore you with all of the details of my late round picks, though I was particularly happy to get Devin Hester in the 13th, who should be able to make hay in Mike Martz's offense. I went with DTBC (SD, MIA) in the 14th and 16th and took a deep sleeper, the Dolphins' Brian Hartline, in the 19th.

Here's the full roster:

QB: Kolb, Palmer
RB: Grant, Wells, Hightower, Buckhalter, Westbrook, Mew. Moore
WR: R. Moss, Fitzgerald, Ward, T.O., M. Williams, Hester, Hartline
TE: Witten, Boss
K: Bironas
DT: SD, MIA (DTBC)

Will this team be good enough for a third straight playoff berth? Only time will tell.

I know there are many owners heading into drafts over the next few weekends, so I'm going to endeavor to update the position rankings every Friday through the weekend before the season starts.

Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Tight Ends

I just added Mike Williams to my list of sleeper WRs:

The reviews have been rave for the rookie out of Syracuse. He has already won the starting split end job and has impressed Peter King, Pete Prisco and even Adam Schefter, who says that Williams "has star written all over him." Now it's important to keep in mind that Williams is a rookie, but when a player is impressing this much for a team in desperate need of a playmaker at WR, fantasy owners should take notice. I'd definitely look to draft Williams in the later rounds, but don't wait too long.

Just the fact that Williams is the Bucs' WR1 gives him a certain amount of value. Throw in the rave reviews from this summer and we have a very interesting pick once the 10th round arrives.

Chris Wesseling of Rotoworld has released updated carry projections for the entire AFC, but let's focus on five teams: the Chiefs, Texans, Colts, Bills and Raiders.

We'll go one by one:

Jamaal Charles: 220
Thomas Jones: 140
Kestahn Moore: 30

Charles emerged as the Chiefs' MVP last year, averaging 20 carries and 121 rushing yards once hit he the starting lineup at mid-season. The projection above accounts for Jones in slightly more than a Willis McGahee-type short-yardage/inside role, giving Charles just under 14 carries per contest. Throw in three receptions per week and it's enough to leave Charles as a borderline RB1.

Obviously, these numbers disregard the fact that TJ is still atop the depth chart and the head coach is telling the press that Charles's role is 'undefined.' While it would seem incomprehensible to fantasy owners that Haley would limit Charles's touches given how well he played last season, the news out of KC should not be ignored. TJ has been overlooked everywhere he's went and while I'm hoping for a 60/40 split like we see here, I wouldn't be surprised if it's more 50/50.

Arian Foster: 215
Steve Slaton: 125
Jeremiah Johnson: 20
Chris Henry: 10

The line for now trendy Foster love starts behind Rotoworld. We were hyping the former Tennessee star as a Dynasty deep sleeper once the Texans snatched him up after last year's draft while promoting him as the potential answer in Houston by mid-November. Although Ben Tate's season-ending broken fibula has killed Foster's sleeper potential for this year, it certainly offers more clarity in this backfield: Foster is Batman; Slaton is Robin. Draft accordingly.

I didn't jump on the Foster bandwagon until earlier this summer, but with Tate's injury, he looks like he should vastly outplay his current draft position (9.02 over the last week). Look for his ADP to continue to rise. I'd start thinking about picking him in the 7th or the 8th. He played very well at the end of last season, has drawn rave reviews from the coaching staff this summer, and it's clear that the team doesn't view Slaton as a feature back any longer.

Joseph Addai: 190
Donald Brown: 140
Mike Hart: 25

Brown's assorted injuries and pass-protection woes ("God damn-it, Donald!") led to Addai hogging 65 percent of the carries last season. That won't happen again this year. Addai is due to hit free agency in 2011, and the Colts want to see what they have in their explosive 2009 first-rounder. Addai is being overdrafted as a reliable RB2.

People have been writing off Addai for a few years now, yet in PPR leagues, he finished as last season's RB6. Pundits are optimistic about Brown's chances because Addai is in a contract year, and the argument goes that the Colts will want to see what they have in Brown. Even so, Rotoworld is projecting 190 carries for Addai, which is 29 carries off of last year's pace. Throw in 40 receptions and eight TD (a reasonable estimate for Addai given how often the Colts get into the redzone) and you still have a solid to serviceable RB2 -- and that assumes Brown gets those 140 carries. What if the Colts instead elect to get all they can out of Addai while he's still in town?

Fred Jackson: 190
C.J. Spiller: 150
Marshawn Lynch: 105

F-Jax is "shooting for" for a return from his broken hand by the season opener, which is on the optimistic end of the scale. I took 10 carries from his projection and split them between Spiller and Lynch. Jackson should remain the primary inside runner. He's clearly outplayed Lynch for two years, and Spiller doesn't run between the tackles.

Fred Jackson looked pretty good last year when he was the featured back, but he's 29 years old and the Bills elected to draft C.J. Spiller as their RB of the future. Jackson is sidelined with a broken hand, so Spiller has a crack to take the starting job. The Bills' offense is pretty pathetic, and this is shaping up as a RBBC, so my recommendation is to avoid it altogether, if you can.

Michael Bush: 190
Darren McFadden: 170
Michael Bennett: 30

Cable has given mixed signals on his intentions for the backfield, mentioning both a tandem attack and a "best man wins" competition. Bush is clearly a stronger inside runner while McFadden operates much better in space. My gut tells me McFadden is in for a breakout season, but Bush is the safe bet to lead this team in carries.

Bush averaged 4.8 ypc last year and was in the top 10 in yards after first contact, so the guy can run. With Jason Campbell under center, the Raiders should be able to run the ball more, which would seem to be Tom Cable's preference. Bush is clearly the best first- and second-down back on the roster, while McFadden would be better served if he assumed a Reggie Bush-type role. But these are the Raiders and they're unpredictable. I'd stay away unless you're looking for a fourth RB in the 8th or 9th round.

Originally published 8/27/09
Updated 8/16/10

Snake drafts are simple, easy to understand and organized.

Auctions are not.

They are haphazard and chaotic, and that’s part of what makes them so much fun.

Want Chris Johnson? He’s yours…if you’re willing to pay. You’re not beholden to a certain draft slot or to the whim of the guy picking in front of you. It’s your team and the decisions you make will completely shape your roster, for good or for bad.

Auctions come in all shapes and sizes, but for the past couple of seasons I’ve played in one where each team has a $400 salary cap and a roster of 20 players. It’s a slow online auction. Every day, each owner is responsible for nominating one player along with an opening bid, which can’t be seen by the other owners in the league. Bidding is open for 24 hours, unless the high bidder changes, in which case the clock is reset. At any particular time there might be 20 or 30 players up for bidding, but the slow format gives owners plenty of time to consider their options.

I generally budget 85-90% of my total cap for my starters. This way, I have already accounted for some extra funds to acquire some cheap backups in the later part of the auction. This might seem like a lot to spend on your starters, but these are the guys that are playing week in and week out, so it’s smart to put the vast majority of your resources to that end.

Last year, I ended up with Tony Romo ($14, very smart), Adrian Peterson ($111, smart), Brian Westbrook ($71, dumb), Larry Fitzgerald ($84, smart), Brandon Marshall ($21, very smart), Steve Smith 2.0 ($11, very smart), Owen Daniels ($10, smart until he went down) and Marshawn Lynch ($30, very dumb), with Jason Elam ($2) and the Eagles ($3) rounding out my starting lineup. My backups weren't great, but I snagged Tim Hightower for $8 and Eli Manning for $6. I also had the Jets for $3.

Hightower stepped in for Westbrook when he went down, and this team cruised until I lost Daniels to a knee injury. I spent the next three weeks trying to replace him, trading away some depth and burning all of my bidding bucks in the process. I ended up taking third place after losing in the semis.

When approaching an auction there are two prevailing strategies to consider when bidding on players:

SMASH AND DASH

In most auctions, owners are amped up and ready to spend. Usually, big-name players are nominated first, so there is a sense of urgency when there are 12 or 15 of the game’s top 20 or 30 players on the board. The bids come fast and furious and prices are usually inflated. How do you know if they’re inflated? There are a number of auction spreadsheets out there, but I like to use the Value Based Drafting spreadsheet that Footballguys.com distributes.

A membership to the site is worth it, but if you don’t want to join, don’t worry, the first few updates are free. You can then customize the Excel spreadsheet to your league’s specifications and modify the player projections as you see fit. The spreadsheet will generate a cheatsheet that will have a list of all the players by position and by price. This will be your guide during the auction.

The “smash and dash” approach is to hit the auction hard in the first few days, acquiring 2-4 top players – 1st or 2nd rounders in a traditional draft format – spending anywhere from 50-80% of your total budget. While you need to trust your spreadsheet, don’t be afraid to pay a bit more than MSRP to get a guy you want.

Last season, I spent 67% of my budget on AP, Westy and Fitz. Even though Westy went down, Peterson and Fitz were still able to lead my team to a playoff berth.

Once you have your first few players, look to round out your roster with cheaper players, hoping that your studs will stay healthy and carry you to the playoffs. Depending on how far you pushed your payroll, this may be easier said than done. Owners who saved their money for the middle of the auction are going to be able to outbid you at will, so you have to hope that those owners aren’t interested in the cheaper players that you want. If you’re patient, you can usually find good deals in the later stages of the draft.

This is a high risk, high reward strategy. But if you focus on getting your studs for 70%-85% of their true value, you'll be in good shape.

SIT AND WAIT

Another approach is to sit on the sidelines while the other owners trip over themselves overbidding on every player on the board. At some point, they’ll all run out of money having overspent on their studs and won’t have any money left to fill out the rest of their roster with anything but scrubs.

This is the point in the auction – usually when 50% of the total league payroll has been allocated – that the proverbial worm turns. This is when you step in with your wad of cash and pounce on value when it reveals itself. It’s not uncommon for good players (3rd-5th rounders) to go for 50% or less of their true value. The strategy here is to build a balanced squad made up of solid mid-round talent. This type of team will be better able to absorb an injury or two .

There are two drawbacks to this strategy: 1) fantasy champions usually have at least one or two studs and 2) it can be difficult to sit idly by at start of the auction as a series of very talented players come and go.

Both strategies, if followed to the letter, have significant drawbacks. This is why I advocate something of a hybrid approach, which I dubbed...

THE HYBRID APPROACH

This strategy requires the owner to play a little defense in addition to offense. The first thing I do is nominate a player that I don’t really want. Look for players going in the 1st or 2nd round of mock drafts whom you would pass on at their current average draft positions. For example, Michael Turner is going 1.07 this summer. In a PPR league, I think that's too high, so I'll throw his name out there to cause a feeding frenzy and eat up some of the resources of the other owners in the league. I’ll usually cap my bid at 50-60% of the player’s value (according to my spreadsheet), so that no one gets a screaming deal (i.e. I will take Turner if it’s at a 50% discount).

Then, as the big-name players are nominated, I’ll bid them up to different levels depending on how strongly I feel about them...60-70% if I’m lukewarm...70-80% if I like them...80-85% if I really like them...90-100% if I love them.

Sometimes, I’ll end up with the high bid on 2-3 big name players early on. Don’t be afraid to spend a good chunk of your payroll on discounted studs. If you can get three first round or early second round players for 60%-75% of your total payroll, you are in good shape. Just lay low for a while and let the owners sitting on the sideline play defense on the big-name players. Only enter the fray if there is a value player available that fits your budget.

If you don’t end up with any studs in the first third of the draft, don’t fret, there are bound to be several first and second round talents still available, along with plenty of players who are going in the middle rounds of snake drafts. Keep track of who has and who hasn’t been nominated and only bid with a sense of urgency if the last stud RB or WR becomes available. Chances are, you’ll be able to get him at a price that wasn’t available earlier in the auction.

CONCLUSION

As you can see, auction strategy is something of a nebulous topic. It depends largely on what kind of auction you’re in. If you’re surrounded by aggressive spenders, then it pays to bide your time. If you’re surrounded by bargain hunters, then it is wise to land a few studs early, provided you can get them at a discount. You should know what kind of auction you’re in by the time the first few players fall off the board. Keep a running total of what players are going for and divide that by their total value. If the number is greater than 1.1, you're in an aggressive league (or at least there are a few aggressive owners). If it's less than 0.9, you're probably in a passive league, so look for some discounted studs early on. Just pay attention, spend wisely, and pounce when the time is right. This might be at the start, in the middle, or at the end. It all depends.

I've only participated in four or five auction drafts in my career, so I'm still learning. If you have any tips or suggestions for our readers, please feel free to share them below.

Fantasy football drafts are starting to ramp up, and we're here to answer your questions about who to keep, which players to target and anything else that might be troubling you.

Fire away.

Per the Houston Chronicle...

Tate suffered a broken ankle in the 19-16 preseason loss at Arizona. He’s expected to undergo surgery on Tuesday.

Tate, the second-round pick from Auburn, was third team behind Foster and Slaton. Kubiak wanted to see him play for two quarters against the Cardinals. Tate was injured at the end of a 12-yard run when he was tackled by rookie linebacker Daryl Washington.

Tate will be placed on injured reserve.

I was already a fan of Arian Foster this summer, but with Tate out, I like his chances even more. Here's what I wrote in my sleeper RBs piece.

Of everyone on this list, Foster could very well turn out to be the best value if things break his way. Houston’s offensive line is decent, and Foster had a couple of nice games late last season - 19 carries, 97 yards, TD versus Miami and 23 touches, 145 yards, 2 TD against New England - giving him some momentum heading into 2010. His head coach called the 23-year-old ‘mature beyond his years’ and says he’ll be tough to unseat atop the Texans’ depth chart. Meanwhile, rookie Ben Tate ‘has a long way to go’ while Steve Slaton is spending time in camp working on his kick return skills. This points to Foster as the opening day starter. As long as he doesn’t fumble away the job, Foster’s ADP is bound to move into the middle rounds as the preseason wears on.

With Tate out, I'm now targeting Foster in the 7th or the 8th round. He should make a solid third RB and could be a RB2 in a pinch in a flex league that only requires two RB starters. Kubiak lost confidence in Slaton last season and I wouldn't be surprised to see Foster crack the top 20 assuming he stays healthy and doesn't start coughing up the ball.

Here's a quick look:

I tend to shy away from Randy Moss on draft day, mainly due to the reputation that he earned in Oakland of being a malcontent. But the Raiders will make anyone a little crazy, right?

After watching some video of how he spent his summer, I'm definitely considering taking him in the late first/early second.

Tim Martin, who has trained Moss the past eight years and is the innovator of the workout, believes the Patriots receiver doesn’t get enough credit for how well he’s maintained his body over time, and how hard he’s worked to stay at the top of his game.

“Yeah, he is very talented, but he outworks 99 percent of the NFL,” said Martin, when reached by phone last week. “I heard Jerry Rice talk about how hard Larry Fitzgerald works. I’ve seen his workout ... if people take a look at what myself and Randy do, you’ll see a lot of things you don’t see other people doing. I’d put our regimen up against anyone else’s.”

During camp, Moss has had that quick first step and extra gear, particularly on the long bomb routes, as he’s easily beaten many of the younger corners, Darius Butler and Devin McCourty. The past few days during the joint practice sessions with New Orleans, he also made the Saints secondary look slow.

You can see highlights of his workout regimen here.

Since joining the Patriots, Moss has averaged 83-1255-15.7 in three seasons. Even if we throw out his monstrous '07 campaign (98-1493-23), he has averaged 76-1136-12 over the last two years, and that included playing an entire season with Matt Cassel instead of Tom Brady. Brady returned in '09 and Moss posted 83-1264-13.

If he's healthy, and it sure looks like he is, there's no reason to believe that he's not capable of putting up similar numbers in 2010. This makes him an intriguing pick in the late first round/early second round as fantasy owners have to decide whether or not to go stud WR or take one of the second- or third-tier RBs that are still there.

Over the last couple of weeks, I've outlined my strategy for the upcoming fantasy football season in the various segments of the 2010 Fantasy Football Preview. In this post, I'll attempt to pull them all together to provide a (somewhat) coherent strategy that you can, if you so choose, use on draft day.

Below is an overview of the various components. Note: I'm assuming this is a 12-team, TE-required PPR league.

1. Quarterback By Committee (QBBC)
This year, I am recommending that fantasy owners draft Eli Manning in the 7th round and Ben Roethlisberger in the 9th (since it looks like Roger Goodell is going to shorten his suspension to four games and in effect, raise Ben's fantasy stock). I'm going with 7th/9th because it looks like Eli's ADP is creeping up as the fantasy preseason wears on. If Eli goes before your pick in the 7th, then go with Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or Carson Palmer, in that order. Their schedules all mesh well with Big Ben's.

2. Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC)
I'm targeting the Chargers in the 14th, and then using my next pick on the Patriots, Dolphins, Colts or Bears, in that order. If you miss out on the Chargers, there are various other options outlined in the DTBC piece.

3. Draft Zach Miller in the 8th round.
Here's what I wrote about Miller in our TE preview:

Jason Campbell is in as the starter in Oakland, which means that for the first time, Miller will have a capable QB throwing the ball. Campbell loved throwing it to Chris Cooley in Washington, so Miller projects to have a nice year. He caught 37 passes over his final six games and with a solid QB under center, he should be able to build off of that success.

Of course, if Tony Gonzalez or Brent Celek somehow slip into the 8th, I'd take either over Miller, but barring that, Miller is my man in the 8th.

The rest is fill in the blanks and it largely depends on your draft position and who you like in each round. I put together the table below as an outline. Along the top you'll see different picks (1-4, 5, 6-7, 8-12) which represents all the picks in the first round. (Note: You can see a bigger version of the table by clicking on it.)

If you get one of the top four picks, you should take one of the top four running backs -- Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew. I would probably go in that order, but there isn't much difference amongst the four. Then in the second round, you would grab Brandon Marshall, Calvin Johnson, Greg Jennings, DeSean Jackson or Marques Colston. In the third, you'd grab Shonn Greene, Ryan Grant or Pierre Thomas. And so on...

If you have the #5 pick and one of the top four RBs is there, grab him. If not, draft Andre Johnson and zag while everyone else is zigging. On the way back, you'd target Roddy White (but if Miles Austin or Randy Moss slips, jump on them). If they're all gone, grab Greene or Grant. As the draft wears on, if you're fine with running with only three RBs, you can go with a WR in the 10th (Hester or Knox). But if you do grab White in the 2nd, you better go RB with a later pick, like Foster or Sproles in the 10th, or maybe Ronnie Brown, Justin Forsett or Ahmad Bradshaw in the 6th. That's why those players (along with White) are listed in a different color.

Remember, this is only a guide and it represents my feelings about all these players as of Tuesday, August 10th at 7:45 PM. If positive or negative news breaks about any of these guys, move them up or down accordingly.

Those fantasy owners thinking about drafting Jamaal Charles in the second round should take note: The Chiefs released their first depth chart of the preseason and Thomas Jones is listed ahead of Charles.

I just spoke with Anthony Stalter and he said that owners shouldn't read too much into this. I tend to agree, but this is a 2nd round pick we're talking about. It's too early to draft a guy that isn't even listed first on his team's depth chart. I still like Charles this year, but even if he gets 50% of the touches, it's still not going to be enough to justify a second round pick over more defined backfields like Green Bay (Ryan Grant), San Diego (Ryan Matthews) or New Orleans (Pierre Thomas) -- teams that are much better offensively and feature better-defined roles.

Charles is still worth a pick in the 3rd or the 4th and could move back into the 2nd if the reports out of camp indicate that he'll get 60% of the carries. Right now, it looks like a timeshare. Ugh.

This quite perplexing considering Charles' age (23) and performance down the stretch last season. He averaged 141 total yards and 1.0 TD per game over the last eight games. His is a situation to keep an eye on.

Giants beat writer Mike Garafolo of the The Star-Ledger seems to think so...

RB Ahmad Bradshaw (yes, I put him in the starter category because he's taking all of the first reps with the starters, it seems) continues to look like his rookie self. He went off left edge and moved well, changing direction a few times. RB Brandon Jacobs looked pretty good tonight as well.

Here are the stats from last season:

Jacobs - 224 rushes, 835 yards, 5 TD; 18-184-1
Bradshaw - 163 rushes, 778 yards, 7 TD; 21-201-0

Bradshaw averaged more than a yard more per carry and only finished 40 yards behind Jacobs in total yards despite 58 fewer touches.

How you feel about this situation depends on how you feel about Jacobs' knees. If he's healthy, he'll almost certainly get enough first and second down work and goal line carries to keep Bradshaw from being a bona fide fantasy RB2.

But here we are, about a month away from the season and Bradshaw appears to be pressing Jacobs for the starting job. This could be a coaching ploy to motivate Jacbos (whom Garafolo also said looked good), it could be a way to reduce Jacobs' workload in the preseason since he's coming off of knee surgery, or it could be an actual change to the Giants depth chart. For what it's worth, Tom Coughlin says that the press is "too hung up on that stuff." (Spoken like a man who doesn't have a fantasy football draft to prepare for.)

Considering Jacobs is going a full two rounds earlier than Bradshaw (who is a nice value in the 9th), the latter would appear to be a better value given his upside. Regardless, fantasy owners who draft Jacobs in the 6th or the 7th should definitely grab Bradshaw in the 8th as insurance.

Per the USA Today:

The only sure thing is that Roethlisberger will sit out at least the four games. However, the commish likes the way the quarterback has reacted to the suspension. (Click here for Steelers' schedule)

"He is doing great," Goodell said. "... I've been encouraged by what I have seen. He's understanding the seriousness of the issue. I think that's a very positive development."

For those fantasy owners who made it through my rather extensive QBBC article (or at least read the parts printed in bold), Roethlisberger is an interesting middle- to late-round pick this year. He's usually underrated because the Steelers are still perceived to be a running team when in recent years they have been far more willing to throw the ball. And now this suspension has depressed his value even further.

But it looks like the commissioner may reduce his suspension from six games to four, and if he does, it would only serve to enhance Roethlisberger's already appealing fantasy value.

As outlined in the aforementioned QBBC article, Roethlisberger forms a nice platoon with both Eli Manning and Matt Ryan (and, by the way, Joe Flacco). If Goodell reduces his suspension to four games, it means that he would return in Week 6 after the Steelers' bye. That matchup is against the Browns, and it's a tasty matchup indeed. In fact, it's better than any of the matchups of the other QBs in play. The question is, would you want to start him in his first start of the season? Wouldn't he be rusty?

That's your call, but I wouldn't be afraid to start him, not if he's facing the Browns after he's had two weeks to take all the snaps in practice. It wouldn't be that much different than the first game of the season.

The downside of the lowered suspension is that his average draft position is probably going to rise. Still, only the savvy owners are going to jump on a guy that is going to miss four games; In recent years, Brandon Marshall and Steve Smith both went about two rounds later than they should have because they were facing suspensions. Generally speaking, Big Ben is an undervalued 7th or 8th round QB, which means he'll likely go in the 9th or the 10th.

Yesterday, I listed a few sleeper RBs that I'm targeting in the mid to late rounds, and today I'll tackle the WR position. I've already discussed a few 10th-round-type players in the WR preview -- specifically Derrick Mason, Malcom Floyd and Devin Aromashodu -- so I'll limit this list to players with average draft positions (ADP) in the 11th round or later.

Johnny Knox (10.11) & Devin Hester (10.11)
I've already broken my 11th round rule. Knox and Hester are practically going on the 11th, so I'll give myself a pass. Truth is, I like all the Bears receivers in Mike Martz's wide open system, but I'm not sure which guy will finish the best stats. Hester seems built to be a Wes Welker slot-type guy (with more quickness), while Knox has a ton of speed. Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune thinks that Knox is emerging as Jay Cutler's top target and Rotoworld speculates that it's because of his ability to control his elite speed a la Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. It's entirely possible that all three wideouts will have fantasy relevant seasons.

Kenny Britt (11.12)
The second-year Britt did not have a very good offseason, showing up to minicamps out of shape and generally driving the coaching staff crazy. But he's doing better in training camp, even though he's currently running with the second team. He is clearly the most talented of the Titans' WRs and it should only be a matter of time before he's Tennessee's top option in the passing game. As a rookie he caught 42 passes for 701 yards and three scores. He was WR51 last year with those numbers, but with just 10 more catches and 150 more yards, he'll be knocking on the Top 30. Seeing as he's currently being drafted W47, he should be a good value, even in the 9th or 10th.

Nate Burleson (12.04)
Burleson went for 63-812-3 for Seattle last season and has had an up and down career. But the always-trailing Lions will be forced to throw a lot and Burleson should be able to make hay opposite Calvin Johnson, who will receive most of the attention in the secondary. And let's not forget that Scott Linehan is the Lions' new OC, and the last time these two worked together, Burleson went for 68-1006-9 as a member of the 2004 Minnesota Vikings. Don't expect nine scores, but Burleson should be an effective WR3 or WR4 in PPR leagues.

Chris Chambers (12.10)
Just shoot me now. I had long given up on Chambers ever offering any consistent fantasy production, but then he gets picked up by the Chiefs and rattles off 45-730-5 in the last nine games of the season. Those are WR8-type numbers, people. So what do we do with him this year? Well, I guess if he's still available in the 11th or 12th round you can do worse. The guy proved he could play in the Chiefs' offense last season, and that's something.

Chaz Schilens (13.04)
His foot is still giving him some trouble, but the X-rays are negative, so hopefully that soreness goes away. If it does, Schilens should have a nice year. He finished fairly strong in 2009, with 4.4-53-0.4 over the last five games, and now he finally has a pretty decent QB throwing to him in Jason Campbell. Keep an eye on that foot in the preseason and if the pain starts to clear up, look at Schilens in the 11th or the 12th.

Mohamed Massaquoi (13.04)
Let's be clear -- I'm not high on Jake Delhomme or the Cleveland passing game. But anytime you can get the top option in a passing game, no matter how bad it is, in the 13th freaking round, you have to take notice. Massaquoi is entering his second season after posting a respectable 34-624-3 as a rookie. We know two things about the Browns: 1) they'll have to throw a lot to stay in games and 2) if Jake Delhomme likes a guy he will force the ball to him. If Massaquoi becomes that guy, he could take a big step forward stat-wise in his sophomore season.

Laurent Robinson (14.01)
Robinson got off to a great start in 2009, catching 11 passes for 141 yards and a TD in the first two games before going down with a season ending leg injury that required surgery. There has been little in the way of news coming out of St. Louis, but everyone expects him to start for the Rams this season, provided his leg is sufficiently healed. If it is, he could very well pick up where he left off last season -- the Rams will be throwing a lot late in games trying to catch up, and that's a recipe for PPR success.

Jacoby Jones (14.09)
Labeled as 'immature,' Jones has finally won over his head coach with his maturity this offseason. Now, if he can only beat Kevin Walter out for a starting job. Jones surely has more physical ability, but Walter is a good route runner and has soft hands. Jones is a flyer, for sure, but if he can beat Walter out for the WR2 job opposite Andre Johnson, a 1,000-yard season is well within reach.

Mike Williams (14.02)
The reviews have been rave for the rookie out of Syracuse. He has already won the starting split end job and has impressed Peter King, Pete Prisco and even Adam Schefter, who says that Williams "has star written all over him." Now it's important to keep in mind that Williams is a rookie, but when a player is impressing this much for a team in desperate need of a playmaker at WR, fantasy owners should take notice. I'd definitely look to draft Williams in the later rounds, but don't wait too long.

All 2010 Fantasy Football Articles | 2010 Position Rankings

There are twenty running backs currently going in the first four rounds and 19 of them -- Matt Forte excluded -- are playing in what I refer to as 'settled' running back situations. We can move forward feeling pretty certain that these 19 RBs, barring injury, will get enough touches to be productive starting-caliber fantasy running backs.

But this piece isn't about those guys. It's about the rest of this year's RB crop, or specifically RBs going in the 7th round or later: The Sleepers.

Below is a list of a few guys that I'm targeting later in drafts. They enter the 2010 season unproven, or unsettled in their respective situations, or even over the hill. I'll list them in order of their current ADP at Antsports:

Brandon Jacobs (7.01)
In his worst season in three years, Jacobs finished as 2009's RB31 on balky knees. He had them scoped in the offseason and says he feels better than ever. He's just 28 years old and only has 779 career carries, so his mileage is pretty low given his age. Moreover, the Giants have a great offensive line and a solid passing attack to keep defenders out of the box. I'm expecting a bounce-back year from Jacobs, making him a nice RB2 for owners loading up on WRs early or a great RB3 on any roster.

Justin Forsett (7.05)
Pete Carroll has a history of using RBBC, so if he's in a major timeshare I'm not sure Forsett is even worth his current draft position. But looking solely at his resume, there's a lot to be excited about. He averaged 5.4 ypc last season, and had a couple of impressive performances against Arizona (22 touches, 149 yards, TD) and St. Louis (22 carries, 130 yards, 2 TD). He was also #6 in Yards After Contact Per Attempt (YCo/Att) which put him in some good company. Forsett's prospects for 2010 depend less on his ability to beat out Julius Jones or Leon Washington and more on Carroll's willingness to let him loose.

Clinton Portis (8.10)
It seems like Portis has been around forever, but he'll be 29 at season's start and has averaged 4.0+ ypc over the last two seasons. He is reunited with his former coach, Skeletor, and has been drawing rave reviews in camp, largely because he has lost some weight and has had a great offseason. Considering that Larry Johnson is his main competition, I expect Shanny will go with the guy he knows and give Portis the bulk of the work.

Michael Bush (9.06)
Bush averaged 4.8 ypc last year behind a very suspect offensive line. The Raiders have (probably) realized that Darren McFadden would be more productive in a Reggie Bush-type role, so Michael Bush could be something of a poor man's Pierre Thomas this season. Bush was #2 in YCo/Att with 3.4 yards per attempt, which gives us a glimpse of his pure strength and running ability. If he runs well in preseason, he should be a nice value in the 8th or 9th round. On the whole, the Raiders' offense should be better with Jason Campbell under center.

Darren Sproles (10.05)
Not in a PPR league? You can probably skip to the next guy. Sproles is a third-down specialist who is very effective in the passing game. He finished last season as RB22 in PPR leagues largely due to his 45 catches for 497 yards. Ryan Matthews has replaced LaDainian Tomlinson, and Norv Turner would be wise to keep the rookie's load relatively light in the hopes of keeping him fresh. That means a lot of work for Sproles, who is always a threat to break a long gainer. Also, if your league rewards individuals for punt or kick returns, Sproles is a huge threat on special teams as well.

Arian Foster (11.04)
Of everyone on this list, Foster could very well turn out to be the best value if things break his way. Houston's offensive line is decent, and Foster had a couple of nice games late last season -- 19 carries, 97 yards, TD versus Miami and 23 touches, 145 yards, 2 TD against New England -- giving him some momentum heading into 2010. His head coach called the 23-year-old 'mature beyond his years' and says he'll be tough to unseat atop the Texans' depth chart. Meanwhile, rookie Ben Tate 'has a long way to go' while Steve Slaton is spending time in camp working on his kick return skills. This points to Foster as the opening day starter. As long as he doesn't fumble away the job, Foster's ADP is bound to move into the middle rounds as the preseason wears on.

All 2010 Fantasy Football Articles | 2010 Position Rankings

Ah, the kicker. This is always the last part of our annual preview that I write because, honestly, it's the last thing I'm thinking about on draft day. In most leagues, it doesn't matter who your kicker is, as long as he's decent. And if you don't find a decent kicker on draft day, you'll surely have an opportunity to pick one up as the season wears on.

I generally look for two things when selecting a kicker:

1. He kicks for a team with a good offense.
In each of the last three seasons, six of the top 10 fantasy kickers played for teams that finished in the top 10 in yards per game. More yards generally means more opportunities for the kicker, be it field goals or extra points. Moreover, 23/30 (77%) of the top 10 kickers over the same span have been on teams that finished in the top 15 in yards per game.

In the last three years, only three teams have had a kicker make the top 10 every season: Tennessee (4th, 4th, 2nd), New England (9th, 1st, 7th) and Green Bay (6th, 10th, 1st). Of those three, only the Patriots and the Packers made the top 10 in each season in yards per game. Tennessee was 12th in 2009, 21st in 2008 and 21st in 2007. For whatever reason, Tennessee's strong running game coupled with a quality kicker (Rob Bironas) leads to a lot of made field goals.

Four teams -- Philadelphia, Minnesota, New York Giants and Denver -- have had a kicker make the top 10 in each of the last two years.

2. He kicks indoors or in a warm weather city, especially in the fantasy playoffs.
Looking at the aforementioned list of teams with consistent kicking success, nice weather has nothing to do with it. New England, Green Bay, Philadelphia, New York and Denver are hostile in December, while Tennessee is pretty iffy.

This is just a personal preference. I have been willing to give up a few points during the season if it means my kicker has nice weather to kick in during the fantasy playoffs. I don't want to be looking at a goose egg when my guy has to go out into below freezing weather and a 32 MPH crosswind.

But, thinking about it a little more, if it comes to that -- why not just change kickers? There are always guys out there on the waiver wire with good matchups, so if you have Mason Crosby and he's about to kick in terrible weather, you have options. Looking ahead, I'm going to put more of an onus on #1 than on #2.

The most important rule to remember on draft day is that you don't want to draft your kicker too early. A good rule of thumb is to wait until 8-10 kickers are already off the board before scooping up the best of what's left. I'd rather use those 12th, 13th and 14th round picks on a few RB or WR flyers, the last part of my QBBC or the start of my DTBC.

With that in mind, here are a few players going in round 15 or later that look to be good values on draft day. ADP data from Antsports.com.

Rob Bironas (15.02)
Bironas is the exception to the 'good offense' rule. The Titans have a great running game, but often stall in the opponent's territory, which is where Bironas comes in. He hasn't missed more than five FGs in any of the last three seasons and has finished in the top 4 for three consecutive years. Vince Young played well down the stretch and should make the Titans' offense more dynamic in 2010. Bironas has the Texans at home in Week 15 and plays at Kansas City in Week 16. The weather may not be great, but the matchups are.

Stephen Gostkowski (15.06)
He has finished in the top 9 in each of the last three seasons and there's no reason to think another top 10 finish isn't in store for 2010. The offense looks as good as last season, though the playoff schedule (GB, @ BUF) is pretty ugly, weather-wise.

Lawrence Tynes (16.04)
His fantasy playoff schedule (PHI, @ GB) isn't great weather-wise, but the Giants' kicker has been in the top 7 in each of the last two seasons and the G-men's offense looks as strong as ever.

Matt Prater (16.01)
Prater has finished as PK8 in his first two seasons. The Denver offense is far from prolific, but he's going to get his opportunities, and kicking in the thin Denver air increases his range. A favorable playoff schedule (@ OAK, HOU) doesn't hurt either.

Dan Carpenter (N/A)
Carpenter finished as PK11 last season and the Dolphins' offense should improve somewhat with the maturation of Chad Henne, the return of Ronnie Brown and the addition of Brandon Marshall. With two home games against the Bills and Lions, Carpenter might have the most favorable playoff schedule of all fantasy kickers.

Here are our official kicker rankings:

1. Mason Crosby
2. Nate Kaeding
3. Stephen Gostkowski

4. David Akers
5. Rob Bironas
6. Garrett Hartley
7. Lawrence Tynes

8. Dan Carpenter
9. Matt Prater
10. Ryan Longwell
11. Neil Rackers
12. David Buehler

13. Shayne Graham
14. Robbie Gould
15. Jeff Reed
16. Adam Vinatieri
17. Joe Nedney
18. Steve Hauschka
19. Nick Folk
20. Jay Feely

All 2010 Fantasy Football Articles | 2010 Position Rankings

The tight end position is often overlooked in fantasy football, but in leagues that award a point per reception, a stud TE can be quite valuable indeed. Over the past decade or so, NFL offensive coordinators have increasingly built game plans around their talented tight ends. It used to be that the position was meant to block in the running game and catch the occasional pass or two. But, more and more, the tight end has become a spot for a big playmaker with soft hands who can block a little.

The position isn't nearly as deep as QB, but since many fantasy owners don't consider taking a tight end until the fourth or fifth round, value is often found in the middle rounds. A vast majority of championship teams will get at least average production from the position, so no matter your strategy, you have to find a decent TE somewhere in your draft if you hope to be hoisting the trophy at the end of the season.

Here are a few TEs I'll be targeting this season along with the round in which each player becomes a good value.

Antonio Gates in the 4th
With Vincent Jackson prepared for a long holdout, Gates will get a ton of targets from Phillip Rivers. It appears that his foot injury is behind him, so he's in line for another Top 4 year. Gates is as consistent as they come.

Dallas Clark in the 5th
Clark was a stud last season, but with Anthony Gonzalez back and the continued development of Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, one wonders if he can post 100 catches again. His previous high was 77, so the gut says 'no.' Still, even if he takes a 20% cut in production, that still would have been good enough to be TE3 in '09.

Jason Witten, Vernon Davis or Jermichael Finley in the 5th/6th
All three of these guys are capable of putting up big numbers this season. Witten is Mr. Steady, Davis has one great year under his belt and Finley is Mr. Upside. Witten has averaged 90-1042-4.3 over the last three seasons and the Cowboys have said that they want to get him more involved in the red zone. Davis finished just behind Gates as last season's TE3, and should have another fine year as everything has stayed pretty much the same in San Francisco. Finley showed his worth in Week 4 against the Vikings when he posted 6-128-1 and finished the year on an eight-game tear in which he averaged 5.5-72-0.5, which are TE2-type numbers. The Packers lack a big body at WR around the goal line, so look for Finley to get his fair share of jump balls inside the 5-yard line.

Tony Gonzalez or Brent Celek in the 6th/7th
Gonzo is the consummate pro and has finished in the Top 5 in 10 of the last 11 seasons. He's 34, but he's still doing all (or at least most) of the things he was doing at 28. Even though the projections have him finishing TE6 or TE7, it's more likely that someone projected to finish ahead of him has a disappointing year and Gonzo sneaks into the Top 5 yet again.

As for Celek, some might downgrade him because Donovan McNabb is gone, but in the two weeks where Kevin Kolb got a lot of work (Weeks 2 & 3), Celek caught 16 passes for 208 yards and a TD. Granted, in Week 2 the Eagles were throwing from behind against the Saints, and Week 3 was against a very suspect Chiefs defense, but still -- Kolb feels comfortable with Celek. How you feel about the QB is how you feel about the TE. If Kolb has a good or great season, Celek will likely finish in the Top 6 or 7 again.

Kellen Winslow or Visanthe Shiancoe in the 9th
The bottom line is that if Winslow stays healthy, he's going to finish in the Top 10. Unfortunately, that's a big IF, and Winslow is already being held out of practice because of soreness in his knee after his sixth -- yes, his sixth -- knee surgery. Still, in the 9th, Winslow is a good value. Just be sure to draft his backup relatively quickly.

Shiancoe's value depends heavily on the pending return of Mr. Brett Favre. He posted Top 5 numbers over the second half of the season and Favre loves to look for his TE in the red zone.

Zach Miller in the 9th/10th
Jason Campbell is in as the starter in Oakland, which means that for the first time, Miller will have a capable QB throwing the ball. Campbell loved throwing it to Chris Cooley in Washington, so Miller projects to have a nice year. He caught 37 passes over his final six games and with a solid QB under center, he should be able to build off of that success.

Kevin Boss in the 12th
From Weeks 8-16, Boss averaged 3.5-46-0.6, which are TE7-type numbers. He's not terribly consistent, but he's entering his fourth season and has become one of Eli Manning's favorite targets around the goal line. Boss is better suited to be a backup, but a Top 10 finish is not out of the question if he gets consistent targets week to week.

Steering clear of... Chris Cooley. I like him, but with Fred Davis battling for snaps and a new QB in town, there's not enough stability to justify his 7th round ADP... Owen Daniels. He just had a setback with his knee, so if he's not back and looking good in the next couple of the weeks, I'll let someone else take the risk... Heath Miller. I like him in a backup role, maybe in the 12th round, but with Ben Roethlisberger suspended for the first six games, I wonder how effective the Steeler passing game will be with Byron Leftwich, who is not known for passing to his TE... Greg Olsen. He has great upside, and who knows, maybe Mike Martz will finally take advantage of his tight end. But there are too many other options in more stable situations.

Here are our official TE rankings, by tier:

1. Antonio Gates
2. Dallas Clark

3. Jason Witten
4. Vernon Davis
5. Jermichael Finley
6. Tony Gonzalez
7. Brent Celek

8. Kellen Winslow
9. Visanthe Shiancoe
10. Zach Miller
11. Chris Cooley
12. John Carlson

13. Greg Olsen
14. Heath Miller
15. Owen Daniels
16. Jeremy Shockey

17. Kevin Boss
18. Dustin Keller
19. Todd Heap
20. Tony Scheffler

All 2010 Fantasy Football Articles | 2010 Position Rankings

Are wideouts the new running backs? Not quite, but they continue to gain importance as more and more leagues make rules changes that enhance the value of the position. How do you know if you're in one of these leagues? If your rules only require one starting RB spot and has a flex position, or if it awards one point per reception, you can start thinking about drafting a WR in the middle of the first round.

As I noted in the RB preview, there is a pretty sizable drop off after the first five or six running backs this season, so as soon as Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice are off the board, it's time to consider going with a wideout. Frank Gore and Steven Jackson are justifiable picks at #5 or #6, but Andre Johnson is also worth consideration. And I'd rather have Larry Fizgerald than any of the RBs in the next tier (Michael Turner, Rashard Mendenhall, DeAngelo Williams, etc.).

If you're in a league that does NOT require two starting RBs, and you're drafting in the back half of round one, it makes a lot of sense to zag when everyone else is zigging, by grabbing a stud WR. You could even draft a second wideout early in the 2nd and wait to nab your first RB late in the third, when guys like Pierre Thomas, Chris Wells and Joseph Addai are still likely to be available. You could end up with Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne and Thomas as your core, and that's a group that is projected (by Footballguys) to outscore a Turner/Mendenhall/S. Rice core by almost 100 fantasy points over the course of the season (assuming a high-performance, PPR league).

If you're drafting in the first half of the first round and want to grab a stud RB early, don't be afraid to go WR with your next pick, as there will be plenty of RB talent available early in the third round, and given the relative depth in rounds 2 and 3, you won't be losing many points by letting Ryan Grant, Jamaal Charles or Knowshon Moreno go. Somebody comparable will be there in the 3rd.

Even if you load up on WR talent early, it's always nice to be able to pluck a good WR out of the pack in the middle rounds. Here are a few players that are going in the 6th-10th rounds that should outperform their current average draft positions. (Note: All ADP data is from Antsports.)

Hines Ward (6.01)
It's almost August, so that must mean I'm writing about Hines Ward as a value fantasy wideout. Sure, he's 34, but over the last two seasons he has averaged 88-1105-6.5. He was WR14 last season and WR15 the year before, so why is he being drafted WR23? It's not just his age -- he's going to be without Ben Roethlisberger for the first six games. But Byron Leftwich can hold down the fort, right? If he stays healthy, Ward should have another top 20 fantasy season.

Percy Harvin (6.03)
While Sidney Rice stole many of the headlines last season, Harvin put together a terrific rookie year en route to Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. Most wideouts take two or three years to get acclimated to the NFL, but Harvin had no issues, other than the occasional migrane. He finished with 60-790-6, and also gained 135 yards in the running game. He should be able to build on those numbers assuming #4 is back under center.

Santana Moss (7.02)
Even in what was rightfully considered a down year, Moss finished as WR28 with 70-902-3. He's being drafted WR27, even though his QB situation has improved from Jason Campbell to Donovan McNabb, who is far more likely to throw the ball downfield with accuracy. Moss is 31, so age is a concern, but it's not like he's over the hill. Moss has a great shot to shoot back into the Top 20 in 2010.

Donald Driver (7.04)
The Packers are worried about Driver's off-season knee scopes, but he said in mid-June that he feels so good that he wishes he had done it years ago. Driver is 35, so it's important to keep perspective, but these are the kinds of middle round singles and doubles that can seal a fantasy playoff berth. Driver was WR21 last season and WR23 the year before, yet he's going W28 in mock drafts. I figure he'll finish in the low 20's again with very little downside.

Mike Wallace (8.02)
I'd feel even better about this pick if Roethlisberger weren't suspended for the first six games, but them's the breaks. Wallace posted 39-756-3 as a rookie last season and gave the Steelers enough confidence to let Santonio Holmes go. He may not start for your fantasy team right away, but draft him as your third or fourth WR and you'll probably be using him by midseason.

Malcom Floyd (10.05)
Floyd is 28, so he isn't going to sneak up on anyone. But he did post 9-140 against the Redskins in Week 17 last year when Vincent Jackson sat out, and with V-Jax preparing for a long holdout, Floyd could emerge as the Chargers' top WR option. He has a career average of 16.5 ypc, which is promising.

Derrick Mason (10.06)
Like Ward and Driver, Mason is a tried and true fantasy WR. He finished WR17 last season and WR20 the year before, but is being drafted WR41 for some unknown reason. Sure, he's old (36), but he has three straight 1000+ yard seasons and hasn't shown any signs of slowing down. Anquan Boldin's arrival may cut into his targets, but his catches per target should rise with the attention Boldin is going to get. It also doesn't hurt that Joe Flacco has another year on his belt. If your WR corps is looking shaky in the 9th round, Mason can quickly stabilize it.

Devin Aromashodu (10.03)
Don't worry too much about Aromashodu's current position on the Bears' depth chart (WR3). Jay Cutler likes him and Mike Martz runs a lot of three-receiver sets. He posted 22-282-4 over the last four games of the season. By the way, I also like Devin Hester, who is currently going in the 11th round.

Here are our official WR rankings, by tier:

1. Andre Johnson

2. Larry Fitzgerald
3. Miles Austin
4. Reggie Wayne
5. Randy Moss
6. Roddy White

7. Calvin Johnson
8. Wes Welker
9. Marques Colston
10. Greg Jennings
11. DeSean Jackson
12. Steve Smith 2.0
13. Brandon Marshall
14. Steve Smith 1.0
15. Chad Ochocinco

16. Sidney Rice
17. Hines Ward
18. Percy Harvin
19. Anquan Boldin
20. Michael Crabtree
21. Hakeem Nicks
22. Mike Sims-Walker
23. Dwyane Bowe
24. Santana Moss
25. Terrell Owens
26. Johnny Knox

27. Donald Driver
28. Mike Wallace
29. Jeremy Maclin
30. Derrick Mason
31. Malcom Floyd
32. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
33. Mike Williams (TB)
34. Santonio Holmes
35. Pierre Garcon
36. Robert Meachem
37. Lee Evans
38. Jerricho Cotchery

39. Devin Hester
40. Steve Breaston
41. Vincent Jackson
42. Devin Aromashodu
43. Kenny Britt
44. Brian Hartline
45. Jabar Gaffney
46. Nate Burleson
47. Bernard Berrian
48. Mohamed Massoquoi
49. Dez Bryant
50. Jacoby Jones

51. Harry Douglas
52. Laurent Robinson
53. Chris Chambers
54. Donnie Avery
55. Eddie Royal
56. Chaz Schilens
57. Braylon Edwards

All 2010 Fantasy Football Articles | 2010 Position Rankings

Generally speaking, the running back position is the backbone of any good fantasy football team. But more and more, leagues have tried to de-emphasize the position by changing lineup requirements (i.e. one RB and a flex instead of two RB) or adding a point per reception, which increases the important of workhorse WRs and TEs.

Looking at the list of consensus early round running backs, one thing is clear -- there aren't many so-called 'studs' this season. Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew are no-brainers, but after that there's a drop off to a couple of would-be studs (Steven Jackson and Frank Gore) and an even bigger drop off to a deep tier of backs.

So it's a good year to think about drafting a stud WR in the middle- to late-first round instead of taking the first of a big batch of very similar prospects. For example -- in a PPR league, what are the chances that Pierre Thomas (ADP: 3.07) will outscore Michael Turner (1.09)? If both players stay healthy, I think the chances are pretty good. So therein lies the question: If you're drafting 1.07, why take Turner when you are likely to have a shot at a similar back in the second or third round?

Here's the answer -- you don't. I could see jumping on Gore/Jackson at 1.05/1.06, but after that, I'd much rather have Andre Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald (or even Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne or Miles Austin) than the top guy in the next group of RBs.

Look at it this way: Would you rather have Michael Turner and Brandon Marshall or Andre Johnson and Jamaal Charles? I'd rather have the latter.

In fact, this might be the year where I finally do the unthinkable and go WR-WR-WR in the first three rounds, gobbling up three of the top 12 or 13 wideouts and draft a couple of underrated RBs like Chris Wells (4.03), Cedric Benson (4.06), Matt Forte (4.10) or Joseph Addai (5.05) in the 4th and 5th rounds. Of course, you'd only want to pull this trick if your league allows you to start three wideouts.

With that in mind, here are a few backs who could be had in the third round or later that would make a nice addition to a lineup stacked with 2-3 stud wideouts. Who knows, maybe they'll even outscore Michael Turner...

(Note: All ADP data is from Antsports for mocks drafting in July for a 12-team PPR league.)

Pierre Thomas (3.07)
Thomas was RB16 last year despite scoring just one fantasy point in the first two games due to a knee injury. That's been his issue -- staying healthy. But when he's playing, he's productive. And with Mike Bell gone, Thomas figures to get all of the goal line work. Even with Reggie Bush stealing catches, Thomas is very active in the passing game. If he stays healthy, he has a great shot to finish in the Top 10, and he has a couple of nice matchups in Week 14 and Week 16, during the fantasy playoffs.

Ryan Grant (3.06)
Grant was RB9 last year. That's right...RB9. He finished strong, with six TD and 322 yards in the final four games of the season. He's not going to catch many passes, but the Packers have a prolific offense, and he's their main goal line option.

Joseph Addai (5.05)
It's funny -- Addai is coming off another fine campaign (RB6 last year), has no current injury concerns, is just 27 years old, yet he's going in the 5th round. What gives? He's an excellent pass catcher and has scored 35 TD in the last three years. If you're worried about Donald Brown, then burn a 9th rounder on him as a handcuff. There, you're set.

Shonn Greene (3.03)
When Greene has carried the ball 15+ times, he has averaged 126 rushing yards and 1.0 TD per game. All right, so he's only had 15+ carries four times in his career -- it's still an impressive stat. He destroyed the Bengals and Chargers in the playoffs with a total of 263 yards and two scores. LaDainian Tomlinson will back him up, but at this point, Greene is far more explosive. However, PPR owners should take note -- Greene has one (1) catch in his career, so Brian Westbrook he isn't.

Chris Wells (4.03)
Last season, Wells only carried the ball 23 times in the first four games and didn't score a touchdown. Over the next 11 games, he carried the ball 147 times for 679 yards and seven TD. Wells should benefit from the Cardinals' restructuring the offense now that Kurt Warner is no longer under center. He's a far better runner than Tim Hightower, who is more of a third-down back. Throw in an easy schedule and Wells could be in for a BIG year.

Knowshon Moreno (3.03)
All in all, Moreno had a pretty solid rookie year (275 touches, 1160 yard, 7 TD), though he battled some injuries throughout. He can catch the ball and is a good natural runner, though he's not a workhorse back. Correll Buckhalter will take some of his load.

Cedric Benson (4.06)
Assuming the threat of suspension is behind him, Benson projects to have another solid season in the Bengals' productive running game. He's a workhorse (301 carries) but his mileage is low for a 27-year-old. Don't expect much in the passing game, though he's show ability in that area.

Jahvid Best (5.07)
If you decide to go heavy on the wideouts in the first three rounds, Best is a nice RB2 to grab in the 5th. The indications are that he'll be RB1 in Detroit and with Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson, this is an offense that should be on the rise. Plus, he's good out of the backfield, so he should mop up even when the Lions are trailing big.

Matt Forte (4.10)
There are two schools of thought with regard to Mr. Forte. One theory is that he'll remain the starter and catch a ton of passes in Mike Martz's offense. The other is that the Bears signed Chester Taylor and will give him a lot of snaps, especially if Forte struggles behind the Bears' suspect O-line. I think it will be the former (though it should be noted that Anthony Stalter falls into the second group).

Our official RB rankings:

1. Chris Johnson
2. Ray Rice
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Maurice Jones-Drew

5. Frank Gore
6. Steven Jackson

7. Rashard Mendenhall
8. Michael Turner
9. DeAngelo Williams
10. Pierre Thomas

11. Ryan Grant
12. Jamaal Charles
13. Chris Wells
14. Joseph Addai
15. Chris Wells
16. Shonn Greene
17. Knowshon Moreno
18. Ryan Matthews
19. Cedric Benson

20. Jonathan Stewart
21. Jahvid Best
22. LeSean McCoy
23. Arian Foster
24. Ahmad Bradshaw
25. C.J. Spiller

26. Matt Forte
27. Reggie Bush
28. Ronnie Brown
29. Felix Jones
30. Darren Sproles

31. Marion Barber
32. Clinton Portis
33. Michael Bush
34. Brandon Jacobs
35. Carnell Williams
36. Justin Forsett
37. Fred Jackson
38. Jerome Harrison
39. Darren McFadden
40. Ricky Williams

41. Chester Taylor
42. Laurence Maroney
43. Tim Hightower
44. Steve Slaton
45. Correll Buckhalter
46. Donald Brown
47. Montario Hardesty
48. Leon Washington
49. Kevin Faulk
50. Jason Snelling

In our position preview, I ranked the top three fantasy QBs this way: 1) Drew Brees, 2) Aaron Rodgers and 3) Peyton Manning.

We may be splitting hairs here. These are the top three QBs heading into the season and you can't go wrong with any of them. But I'd take Brees first and here's why:

1. He's always playing in Week 16.
Peyton Manning has put up some monster numbers in W16 in recent years. 364 yards and 3 TD in 2008, 311 yards and 3 TD in 2007, and 205 yards and 3 TD in 2006. But he also had just 192 yards and zero TD against the Jets last year and a 116-yard, zero-TD performance in a meaningless game against the Seahawks in 2005. Sometimes the Colts' Week 16 games don't matter and when that happens, Manning isn't going to play a whole hell of a lot. Drew Brees (and Aaron Rodgers) are far more likely to be in a meaningful Week 16 game.

2. He plays indoors in Week 16.
Not only does Brees have a nice matchup with the Falcons in the cozy Georgia Dome in Week 16, he also has the Rams at home in Week 14, which is often the first week of the fantasy playoffs. He does have the Ravens on the road in Week 15, so it's not all rosy for Brees. Conversely, Rodgers has the Lions indoors in Week 14 (!!!), but then he has two tough, cold weather games at New England and at home against the Giants. If there's a title on the line, I'd rather that weather not be a factor.

3. He has an easier schedule this year.
According to Footballguys' strength of schedule, Brees has an improved schedule while Rodgers' projects to be tougher. (Manning has the easiest of the three, but that would only increase the chances that he'll be limited in Week 16.)

All 2010 Fantasy Football Articles | 2010 Position Rankings

Very few defenses are elite year to year, and performance can be tough to predict. One way to approach the position is to form a committee of two (or more) defenses that have favorable combined schedules but are being drafted in much later rounds than the so-called elite defenses. The idea is that a mediocre defense with a great matchup will provide approximately the same production as a great defense with a mediocre or bad matchup.

Clayton Gray of Footballguys.com does an excellent job of compiling the strength of schedule data, and he even writes his own DTBC column (though he calls it 'TDBC'). However, I like to go a step further and add the impact of home and away games, as middling defenses have a tendency to score more fantasy points at home.

Last year, my top recommended combination was Green Bay and Dallas, which turned out well as both teams turned out to have Top 10 fantasy defenses. While I would have been better off just running the Packers out there every week, the duo's recommended schedule netted 135 points (under a high performance scoring system), which were DT5-type numbers. My alternate recommendation, GB/ARI, netted 142 points, so DTBC does work.

Here's how I identify the top DTBC combinations:

1. Use FBG's SOS for DT9-DT28 along with David Dodds' defensive projections to produce a week-by-week estimate for each defense.
I eliminated NYJ, MIN, GB, PHI, BAL, PIT, DAL and SF from the study because all eight defenses are being drafted by the 12th round, which is just too early to start a DTBC. Please note that I don't use Dodds' fantasy point projections, just the projections for points allowed, sacks, interceptions, fumbles and touchdowns scored. So the point totals won't look the same.

2. Apply home/away adjustment.
With relation to a team's mean performance, I found that middling defenses (DT6-DT25) scored 2.8% higher at home in 2009 and 8.6% higher in 2008. I took the average (5.7%) and applied a bonus to home games and a handicap to away games. The more home games, the better.

3. Run the numbers for the resulting 190 possible combinations to find the best DTBCs.
I also calculated the playoff averages for Weeks 14-16 (and just Weeks 15 & 16 for a two-week playoff system) as a tiebreaker.

So now I'm armed with a list of 190 possibilities sorted by total projected points. But numbers aren't enough. I want a real-world perspective on this list. So I enlist the help of our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter, to give his thoughts on the defenses in question. After some discussion, we narrow the list of the best candidates to eight teams: SD, NO, NYG, CIN, MIA, CHI, NE and IND. When picking our DTBC, we shouldn't stray from these eight teams.

Here are Anthony's rankings along with his thoughts on each defense:

1. SAN DIEGO
Combines well with: NE, CHI, MIA, IND
Anthony's thoughts: The Chargers lost two starters from their 2009 secondary when Antonio Cromartie was traded to the Jets and Kevin Ellison was released after he was arrested on felony drug possession charges. Cromartie isn’t coming off a great year, but Nathan Vasher and Donald Strickland are unlikely to be upgrades at the corner position. The front seven is good and if Shawne Merriman is healthy it’ll be even better, but the secondary is a concern.

2. NEW YORK GIANTS
Combines well with: IND, CIN, MIA, SD, NO, NE
Anthony's thoughts: This should be a vastly improved defense in 2010. The offseason additions of Keith Bulluck, Deon Grant, Antrel Rolle and rookies Jason Pierre-Paul and Linval Joseph were key, but they don’t hold a candle to the team’s decision to punt ’09 coordinator Bill Sheridan. His schemes didn’t match the Giants’ personnel and quite frankly, just didn’t work. While the health status of Kenny Phillips and Osi Umenyiora is of major concern, the hiring of former Bills’ DC Perry Fewell should mean that the G-Men will get back to what they do best in 2010: Getting after the quarterback.

3. NEW ORLEANS
Combines well with: NYG, CHI, MIA
Anthony's thoughts: Coordinator Gregg Williams will once again be the key to the Saints’ success on defense, but the offseason produced more questions than answers. After completely ignoring the position during the draft, the Saints have a hole at outside linebacker now that Scott Fujita is in Cleveland. Can Jo-Lonn Dunbar take over on the strong-side? Is Darren Sharper healthy? Can youngsters Malcolm Jenkins and Patrick Robinson contribute? At least one thing's for sure, Reggie Bush is always a major threat in the return game.

4. CINCINNATI
Combines well with: CHI, NE, NYG, MIA
Anthony's thoughts: Led by a young core featuring Leon Hall, Jonathan Joseph, Keith Rivers and Rey Maualuga, it’s hard not to love the Bengals’ potential on defense heading into the season. Plus, getting a healthy Antwan Odom (Achilles’ surgery) back is obviously huge for the team’s pass-rush.

5. MIAMI
Combines well with: SD, IND, NYG, CIN, CHI, NO
Anthony's thoughts: There might not be a more productive all-around linebacker in the league than Karlos Dansby. His addition, coupled with the hiring of defensive coordinator Mike Nolan (who was behind the Broncos’ defensive success last season) has some in the media believing that the Dolphins are legit postseason contenders again.

6. CHICAGO
Combines well with: SD, CIN, IND, NE, MIA, NO
Anthony's thoughts: The biggest addition was obviously Julius Peppers, who should help the Bears mask their deficiencies in the secondary by generating a pass rush. Although, if Peppers decides that this is one of the years he wants to take off, then Chicago is going to be in trouble. Their secondary is a legitimate concern, but the additions of Chris Harris and Major Wright should help. Overall, this is an improved team on paper and getting a healthy Brian Urlacher (who missed virtually the entire 2009 season with an injury) back will help. But it remains to be seen if everything will come together for Da Bears.

7. NEW ENGLAND
Combines well with: SD, CHI, CIN, NYG
Anthony's thoughts: The key to the Pats’ entire offseason was being able to reach a deal with DT Vince Wilfork. The additions of CB Devin McCourty, DE Jermaine Cunningham and LB Brandon Spikes via the draft will help, as will the return of a healthy Jerod Mayo. This isn’t a defense that stands out on paper, but nobody gets more out of his roster or his schemes than Bill Belichick.

8. INDIANAPOLIS
Combines well with: CHI, SD, NYG, MIA
Anthony's thoughts: As usual, the Colts relied on the draft to make upgrades to their team, as opposed to free agency. They used their first three picks in April on defense to select DE Jerry Hughes, who will fortify their pass rush, LB Pat Angerer (a solid all-around playmaker) and CB Kevin Thomas, who will add depth to their secondary. It’ll take time before these youngsters have an impact, but the future is bright for Indy’s defense.

So how do we use all of this info?

According to the numbers, San Diego is part of the four top DTBCs, so look for the Chargers in the 14th or 15th round and try to pair them with New England, Miami and Chicago, in that order. Anthony likes Chicago and Miami a bit more than New England, but the Pats were DT10 last year and not much has changed. I think they have less of a downside than the Bears or Dolphins do. A SD/NYG combo is projected to score about 10-13 fewer points over the course of a season, but the Giants should be vastly improved, so those should be two quality fantasy defenses to target.

For what it's worth, SD/NE is also FBG's top combination, though SD/CHI and SD/MIA are not in their Top 20.

Here's a list of each of the eight teams as well as those weeks where they are projected to score 8.0+ points:

SD: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 11, 13, 14, 15
NYG: 1, 3, 4, 6, 9, 13, 15
NO: 2, 6, 7, 14 (Dodds is not high on the Saints this year.)
CIN: 4, 5, 11, 15
MIA: 1, 3, 10, 12, 13, 15, 16
CHI: 1, 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 13, 16
NE: 3, 9, 12, 13, 16
IND: 2, 3, 5, 6, 14, 16

From a pure numbers standpoint, here are the 19-best combinations of these eight teams: SD/NE*, SD/CHI*, SD/MIA*, CHI/CIN*, CHI/IND, SD/IND*, CHI/NE, NYG/IND, CIN/NE*, MIA/IND*, CIN/NYG, NYG/MIA, SD/NYG, CIN/MIA*, NO/NYG, CHI/MIA, NO/CHI, NYG/NE and NO/MIA*. (Note: Asterisks indicate combos that are projected to score 30+ points in Weeks 14-16 and 20+ points in Weeks 15-16.)

The nice thing about DTBC is that there are always fallback options if part of your top combo is drafted earlier than expected. These eight teams form 19 combinations projected to post DT3-type numbers or better, so use those 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th round picks to build depth at RB or WR (or to build a QBBC) and start putting together your DTBC in the 14th round or later.

Here are our official DT rankings, by tier:

1. Jets
2. Ravens

3. Steelers
4. Vikings
5. Packers
6. Eagles
7. 49ers

8. Cowboys
9. Chargers
10. Giants
11. Saints
12. Bengals
13. Patriots

14. Dolphins
15. Bears
16. Colts

17. Titans
18. Broncos
19. Panthers
20. Cardinals
21. Redskins
22. Bills
23. Bucs
24. Falcons

25. Texans
26. Browns
27. Seahawks

28. Raiders
29. Lions
30. Jaguars
31. Chiefs
32. Rams

All 2010 Fantasy Football Articles | 2010 Position Rankings

The quarterback position is important in fantasy football, just not as important as it is in real football. Unless you play in a league that requires two starting QBs, there is plenty of depth at the position which means you have plenty of options.

Strategy #1: Draft a stud.
This is the simplest way to approach the position. Sometime in the first three rounds, pick the best QB available. This year, it appears that there are seven QBs going in the first 36 picks: Aaron Rodgers (1.08), Drew Brees (1.09), Peyton Manning (2.04), Tom Brady (3.01), Tony Romo (3.09), Matt Schaub (3.11) and Philip Rivers (3.12). These guys have a few things in common: 1) they're good, 2) they're entrenched in good situations, and 3) they have good receivers to throw to.

One strategy is to set aside one of your first three picks for one these players. The upside is that you probably won't have to worry about your QB position. You'll run this guy out there every week and won't have to make any decisions about whom to start. The downside is that you won't be using one of your early round picks on another position, like RB and WR, that does not have as much depth as the QB position.

Strategy #2: Wait for value to emerge.
This approach doesn't preclude taking a QB in the first few rounds, but it doesn't mandate it either. You might wait until the late 2nd/early 3rd and see if Rodgers/Brees/Manning are still on the board. Or wait until the 4th or the 5th and see if one of the other four players are available. If it's the latter, then you managed to get a 3rd round QB a round or two later, which allowed you to get a stud QB and use a 3rd round pick on that RB or WR you had your eye on.

The 'wait for value' approach could also stretch into the middle rounds as you wait for a well-priced QB. If that value never emerges, don't fret, because you're still well positioned for...

Strategy #3: Quarterback By Committee
I wrote a far more detailed post about this last week, but suffice to say, with the depth at the QB position, 2-3 middle- to late-round QBs with schedules that combine well (i.e. favorable matchups line up so there's usually a good one every week) will form a QBBC that will perform at Top 5 levels at a fraction of the price.

My top recommendation this year is to grab Eli Manning (or Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco) in the 8th, and then Ben Roethlisberger in the 10th. For a three-man combo utilizing only late rounders, grab Big Ben in the 10th, Alex Smith in the 11th and David Garrard in the 12th.

The benefit to this strategy is that you won't lose much at the QB spot and will be able to load up with tons of talent and depth at RB, WR and even TE in the early rounds. You'll also have 2-3 capable signal callers on the roster to turn to if one gets injured. What do you do if Drew Brees goes down?

The downside? You can go into the season with a plan, but player and defensive performance may make picking a starter each week more of a chore than you'd like it to be. This is not necessarily the right strategy for an owner who wants a low-maintenance team.

Since I've already written extensively about the QBBC, and you don't have to put much thought into picking a stud early in the draft, here are a few QBs that look like especially good values, even at their current average draft positions.

Tony Romo (3.09)
Romo finished as QB7 last season and was about 10 points away from QB4. He has finished in the Top 10 in each of the last three seasons and a plethora of weapons, including newcomer Dez Bryant. The Cowboys always seem to be playing until the (sometimes bitter) end, so you don't have to worry about Romo taking Week 16 off. If there is no RB or WR that you like late in the 3rd or Romo slips into the 4th, jump on him.

Eli Manning (8.06)
Manning was QB10 last season and has finished in the 10-14 range the last four seasons, so why is he QB13 heading into this season? With that kind of consistency, you'd think that he'd go a bit earlier since there is very little downside. He has a nice receiving corps featuring Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks and Kevin Boss and the Giants aren't afraid to throw the ball.

Alex Smith (12.08)
Smith averaged 16.7 fantasy points in 11 starts last season, which is more than Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco, who are both going a full four rounds earlier in mock drafts. He'll benefit from the emergence of Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis, along with a much easier schedule in 2010.

Vince Young (13.01)
Not unlike Smith, Young averaged 16.7 points in his last 10 starts. More importantly, the Titans went 8-2 over that span, so he proved that he could win. He's not going to set the world on fire with his passing numbers, but he always seems to add 2-3 points in the running game and is a threat to run it in.

David Garrard (13.07)
Why is last year's QB13 going in the 13th round? He averaged 17.6 points per game last season and has a quality WR in Mike Sims-Walker to throw to. However, the Jags have struggled in recent seasons and if they don't get off to a good start against a tough early schedule, Garrard might become the fall guy. However, if he can survive the first four weeks, his schedule lightens up, which is why he's a good match in a three-man QBBC with Big Ben.

Matt Moore (N/A)
Moore averaged 16.1 fp over his last five starts, throwing eight TD and averaging 207 passing yards over his final four games. His body of work is small and he may have Jimmy Clausen pushing him, but with a pretty favorable opening schedule, Moore should be okay.

Here are our official rankings, by tier:

1. Drew Brees
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Peyton Manning

4. Tony Romo
5. Tom Brady
6. Matt Schaub
7. Philip Rivers

8. Kevin Kolb
9. Brett Favre
10. Jay Cutler

11. Eli Manning
12. Donovan McNabb
13. Matt Ryan
14. Joe Flacco
15. Carson Palmer

16. Ben Roethlisberger
17. Alex Smith
18. Chad Henne
19. Vince Young
20. Matthew Stafford
21. David Garrard

22. Matt Cassel
23. Matt Moore
24. Matt Hasselbeck
25. Jason Campbell
26. Matt Leinart
27. Mark Sanchez

28. Josh Freeman
29. Trent Edwards
30. Kyle Orton
31. Sam Bradford
32. Jake Delhomme

All 2010 Fantasy Football Articles | 2010 Position Rankings

Every year, I kickoff TSR's hardcore fantasy football coverage with my Quarterback By Committee (QBBC) post. I do this for a couple of reasons: 1) out of curiosity, as I usually draft a QBBC myself, and 2) there's a lot of number crunching so it gets the fantasy football juices flowing.

For the neophytes, QBBC is a strategy often utilized by savvy fantasy footballers who want to take advantage of the relative depth at quarterback by forming a committee of overlooked mid-rounders. The premise is this: Two or three mediocre quarterbacks whose schedules mesh nicely -- i.e. they have several favorable matchups when their schedules are combined -- will give you the positional production of a top 5 QB.

This allows fantasy owners to load up on running backs, wide receivers and even a stud tight end in the early rounds, building depth at the positions where talent is at a premium. Sure, it's great to have Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees anchoring your team, but that means you don't get that second round RB or WR that you had your eye on. If you can get Top 5 QB production from a couple of guys that you grab in the 8th, 9th or 10th rounds, and your early-round RBs and WRs perform up to expectations, your team will definitely be playoff bound.

This works because of the depth at QB. We know that the signal callers going in round 8 -- guys like Eli Manning, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco -- are going to start and throw a lot of passes for their respective teams (barring injury, of course). Running backs or wide receivers that are going in the 8th round are another animal. RBs still available in the middle rounds are either sharing time or fighting for the starting job. WRs available that late are typically the second, third or even fourth options on their teams.

So that's the theory -- now for the research. To come up with a reasonable expectation for each two-man QBBC combination, I took the season projections from Footballguys (a great fantasy football site) and using their strength of schedule for each team, I was able to produce a week-by-week projection for each quarterback. From there, it was relatively easy to come up with a list of the duos that project to have the best combined seasons.

I only focused on those QBs going in the 8th round or later, so this exercise excludes the Top 11 signal callers (in terms of Average Draft Position): Aaron Rodgers (1.08), Drew Brees (1.10), Peyton Manning (2.04), Tom Brady (2.11), Tony Romo (3.09), Matt Schaub (3.11), Phillip Rivers (4.01), Jay Cutler (6.04), Kevin Kolb (6.04), Donovan McNabb (6.09) and Brett Favre (6.11). (Note: this article assumes a 12-team draft, so all mention of specific rounds and ADP have that in mind.)

This allows fantasy owners to spend at least the first seven picks on RBs, WRs and TEs, putting together a balanced squad before turning to the QB position.

So what was the top QBBC combination? The answer might surprise you:

Matt Ryan / Ben Roethlisberger (320.2 fantasy points)
Eli Manning / Ben Roethlisberger (320.2 fantasy points)
Maybe it's not so surprising. Roethlisberger finished QB9 last season and averaged 22.0 fantasy points per game. He missed Week 12, and had he played and scored his average, he would have finished QB4. He's going to miss the first six weeks of the season due to his recent behavior in a college bar, and as a result he's going in the 11th round.

A savvy owner (who is not worried about the bad karma associated with drafting a guy with a history of sexual assault) looks at this situation and sees that he can get a Top 5 QB for half a season for the price of a 10th or 11th rounder. If he can just get through the first seven weeks of the season (PIT has a bye in Week 5), he'd be sitting pretty with Big Ben and QB X for the stretch run.

In fact, Roethlisberger is part of the top seven QBBCs and eight of the top nine combos. Along with Ryan (8.02), E. Manning (8.07), Big Ben is a good match with Joe Flacco (8.12) and Carson Palmer (9.12). All four of those combinations would require two picks in rounds 8-10. Roethlisberger also meshes well with Alex Smith (12.09), Vince Young (12.08), Jason Campbell (13.02) and Matt Stafford (12.05), in that order. Those QBBCs are all projected to score in the 288-300 fp range (or QB 6-8 production), for the price of a 10th rounder (Roethlisberger) and a 12th rounder. Not bad.

To execute this strategy... One way would be to wait until the 8th round to draft your first QB and take Ryan/Manning/Flacco. Personally, I'd go with Manning first, then Ryan and then Flacco. Here's why: Manning was QB10 last season and averaged 20.3 points over the last eight games. This was the 8th highest average during that span. His strength of schedule is actually a bit better than last year and he should benefit from improvement by Hakeem Nicks and Kevin Boss. While I like both Ryan and Flacco, and they are entrenched as the starters for their respective teams, their schedules are a little tougher this season. Still, either guy would be a nice match with Big Ben.

If you don't want to burn an 8th rounder on your first QB, or if you miss out on Manning/Ryan/Flacco, you could wait until the 10th round to grab Roethlisberger, and then look to add Smith, Young, Campbell or Stafford in the 12th or 13th round. These players are not in uber-stable situations, but they should start, at least for the first seven games.

Don't want Roethlisberger? The top non-Ben QBBC is Eli Manning and Carson Palmer, which would probably require you to use your 8th and 9th round picks to get both players. A cheaper (and almost as effective) duo would be Flacco and Smith. Other cheaper duos: Manning/Henne, Ryan/Garrard, Ryan/Henne, Manning/Young, Ryan/Smith, Flacco/Young, Manning/Smith.

Top three-man combination without drafting a QB in rounds 1-9? How about Big Ben, Smith and David Garrard? Garrard's nice schedule in W5-W7 offsets Smith's somewhat difficult schedule during that stretch. The trio is projected to score 308.4 fantasy points. (That's QB4-type production.) Take Roethlisberger in the 10th, Smith in the 11th and Garrard in the 12th. If you miss out on Garrard, Young is also a good fit with Roethlisberger and Smith.

Jerome Harrison is currently working behind Montario Hardesty during OTAs. Obviously, this is a big blow to those fantasy owners hoping to find a solid RB2 in the third or fourth round in the form of Harrison. This looks like it's shaping up to be a timeshare. Keep an eye on the competition as training camp wears on. Harrison was outstanding late last season and could be a steal if he wins back the job.

Felix Jones is looking better in the passing game. Jones is unlikely to get enough carries in the running game to become a true fantasy RB1, especially with Marion Barber vulturing goal line carries. But if he can become a regular fixture in the passing game, he could do some serious damage in PPR leagues.

Dustin Keller primed for a big year? The Jets have added some wrinkles in order to utilize Keller's talents and Rex Ryan has said that Keller is likely to have more TDs than last season (2). He is a solid TE option for those owners who elect to wait on the position and play Tight End By Committee (TEBC).

Domenik Hixon is out for the season with a knee injury. This is a big blow to the Giants' receiving corps, which will have to lean on Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks even more this season. Move both players up a couple of spots on your cheatsheet.

Will Eddie Royal bounce back this year? He seems like a prime candidate since Brandon Marshall left town leaving Royal as the best and most proven receiver on the roster. Last year was a disaster, but Royal showed what he can do in his rookie season.

Vincent Jackson prepared to sit out until Week 11. This is bad news for his owners and for Phillip Rivers, but it could be good news for Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd, who reportedly looks great in workouts.

Cowboys looking to get the ball to Witten in the red zone. He went for 94-1030 last year, but only caught two TD after averaging 5.5 the previous two seasons. If the Cowboys are serious about calling his number more in the red zone, it may mean Witten once again cracks the Top 5 in standard leagues.

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