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2012 NFL Draft: Breaking down the Quarterbacks
Throughout the next couple of months I’ll take a look at each position group leading up to the 2012 NFL Draft. Where should we start? Well at quarterback, of course.
The Best in Class:
Andrew Luck, Stanford
There are many scouts who are intrigued by Robert Griffin III’s skill set and natural feel for the game, so there will be plenty of people suggesting that Griffin should be the first signal caller off the board in April. But “pound for pound” Luck is still the top quarterback prospect in this draft, if not the top all-around prospect, period. What impresses me most about Luck is his pocket awareness. He anticipates pressure and reacts to it instead of looking for it at the snap. He also keeps his eyes down the field, which is an attribute that all of the elite NFL quarterbacks posses. He goes through his progressions well, displays sound footwork, and has a better arm than people give him credit for. He’s also extremely bright, as evidence of his ability to call plays at the line of scrimmage in Stanford’s offense, and you rarely see him get frazzled. At this point Luck looks like a safe bet at the top of the draft, which is saying a lot considering the position he plays.
The Challenger:
Robert Griffin III, Baylor
It appears that the Colts are set on taking Luck with the No. 1 overall pick but Griffin has plenty of time to change their minds. A smart, savvy player with the ability to create using his arm or his legs, Griffin has improved as a passer every year he’s been at Baylor. He has very good arm strength and can fit the ball into tight windows at the second level. He’s also a natural athlete with a high ceiling and plenty of room to grow if a team surrounds him with the right coaching staff. The main knock on Griffin is that he isn’t comfortable taking snaps from under center and isn’t particularly strong at reading the blitz at the snap. But he seems more “boom” than “bust” and certainly has the attention of fans in Cleveland.
Don’t Sleep On:
Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State
Weeden isn’t drawing the same attention as Luck, Griffin, or even Texas A&M’s Ryan Tannehill. But at 6-foot-4 with a big, accurate arm, Weeden is worth a long look for quarterback-needy teams looking to either move up into the late first round or early second. His age (28) might scare teams away but the fact remains that he has all of the physical attributes and intangibles that pro teams look for in a quarterback. There are some concerns about his inconsistency and he has a habit of forcing throws into coverage, but he could be a perfect fit for teams like the Jets, Seahawks or Broncos.
Mid-Round Sleeper:
Ryan Lindley, San Diego State
The biggest knock on Lindley is that he needs to improve his overall footwork and coordination inside the pocket. Thus, this isn’t a prospect that a team can plug into their offense and have him start in year one or two. But at 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, Lindley looks the part and has very good arm strength. He can make all of the throws at the next level and is an accurate passer. He would be perfect for a team that already has its starter in place but is looking to groom a developmental quarterback for down the line (i.e. the Giants, Falcons or Packers).
Peyton Manning to sign with the Redskins?
CBSSports.com’s Mike Freeman says that “everyone” he’s spoken to in the NFL believes if Peyton Manning becomes a free agent the Redskins will sign him.
Here’s what Freeman wrote:
7. Look for Peyton Manning and Jim Irsay to meet within the next 48 hours -- if they already haven't done so secretly. Manning, I'm told, wanted some time to pass before meeting with Irsay so his brother could celebrate his championship in peace. Manning knows the minute he and Irsay meet, it'll become public (mainly because Manning or his agent will leak their side of it).8. Speaking of Peyton, everyone I speak to in the NFL -- and I mean just about everyone -- believes if Manning becomes a free agent, the Washington Redskins will sign him.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter said on Tuesday that the favorites “in my mind” to land Manning are the Dolphins, while John Clayton noted that Cardinals owner Bill Bidwell will balk on signing Peyton after committing $65 million and $21.5 million guaranteed to Kevin Kolb last offseason.
For what it’s worth, oddsmakers list the Cardinals (+200) as the favorites to have Peyton Manning on their roster in 2013, while the Redskins (+250) have the next best odds (+250) followed by the Dolphins.
I would keep my eye on the Jets as well. Rex Ryan has often been infatuated with beating Manning over the years and it’s not like the Jets have a starting quarterback currently on their roster…
…
…ZING!
Stop comparing Eli Manning and start appreciating his accomplishments
Eli Manning will never be a prototypical gunslinger. He’ll never be Dan Marino, Brett Favre or Warren Moon. He’s not Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees or his brother either.
And that bothers you. But for a moment, let’s stop to appreciate what Eli has been able to accomplish since arriving to the NFL in 2004. Let’s stop trying to compare him to his brother and Brady (who Eli has now beaten twice in the Super Bowl), and every other quarterback who may have better passing numbers, more touchdowns and/or a better personality.
For once, let’s appreciate Eli Manning for the elite quarterback he is.
Kevin Gilbride’s system is one of the more complex offenses in the NFL. The wideouts in this system have to learn how to read coverages and even adjust mid-route, which makes it a rather difficult offense to master for even veteran receivers like Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham and Victor Cruz. And just think about how long it took Eli Manning to not only feel comfortable running the offense, but also winning it in.
While the system is often referred to as “quarterback-friendly,” that doesn’t mean that it’s easy to learn. On the contrary: Manning struggled mightily in his first couple of seasons and he barely showed any improvement from year to year because Gilbride’s system can be demanding and frustrating to pick up. That led to even the staunchest Eli supporters wondering if he was the right man to lead the Giants to greatness. But once he mastered the prolific system, he started to thrive in its beauty.
Manning can now come to the line during a given play, read what coverage the defense is in and understand that he has options on where to throw the ball. Look at that unbelievable throw to Manningham in Sunday’s Super Bowl. Manningham wasn’t Eli’s first read on that play. He wasn’t even his second. Manning saw a small window in which to fit the ball in between two defensive backs that were a second to slow in getting to where they were supposed to be. And he dropped that perfectly placed pass into Manningham’s hands as the receiver took care of the rest.
If his receivers adjust, Manning must adjust as well and when the Giants are firing on all cylinders they’re tough to stop. Not every quarterback can run Eli’s offense so why must we compare his play to that of Peyton, Brees or Brady’s? Why can’t we just marvel at the success he’s had to this point?
That success, by the way, translates to two Super Bowl rings. And just because Eli has collected one more Lombardi Trophy than his brother doesn’t mean that he’s on the same level as Peyton, who has four MVP awards over his sparkling career.
When you’re talking about different offenses, different personnel, and different competition, you’re comparing apples to oranges at the end of the day. Everyone wants to lump quarterbacks into one big pile and discuss “who is the best,” but it’s a frivolous debate. Would you compare Jim Brown and Barry Sanders? Hell no – it’s two different running styles. So why are we so determined to compare quarterbacks?
If I don’t hear another Eli vs. Peyton discussion the rest of my life I’d be a saner person. For once, I just want to appreciate what Eli Manning has accomplished and know that not every quarterback is on his level.
It’s official: The Giants still own the Patriots.
For the second time in less than five years the Giants defeated the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Here are reactions from the G-Men’s 21-17 victory over the Pats in Super Bowl XLVI.
- In order to fully appreciate how far the Giants came in order to be crowned Super Bowl champions, you really have to go back to the preseason when the franchise was a mess. The fans were upset because the front office didn't have the cap space to make a splash signing during the offseason, all while the Eagles built what appeared to be a division-winning roster. Players were also dropping like flies because of a rash of injuries and then the team goes out and loses to the Redskins in Week 1. The defense stunk, the running game was non-existent, and it appeared as though Tom Coughlin was back on the hot streak. But Eli Manning put this team on his shoulders, the defense finally got healthy and then the Giants just caught fire down the stretch. I thought it was rather arrogant that the New York media talked about how this Giants team compared to the 2008 squad that upset the Patriots but lo and behold, they were absolutely right. Team of destiny? Maybe. But then again I just think that this was a very good team that knew what it was capable of if it could reach the postseason. And now once again, the Giants are Super Bowl champions after one of the better in-season turnarounds in NFL history.
- There’s really no debate any more: Eli Manning deserves to be called elite. What more do you want him to accomplish? He may not break NFL passing records like Tom Brady, Drew Brees or his brother, but this dude is just clutch. He was excellent tonight and once again proved that you can’t faze him, I don’t care what the situation is. He deserved another moment like this, especially given how good he was during the regular season. As I’ve written several times over the last month, without him the Giants wouldn’t have won nine games this year. Without his pinpoint throw to Mario Manningham in the fourth quarter the Giants probably don’t win tonight. And without him outplaying the likes of Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, the Giants don’t hoist their second Lombardi Trophy in less than five years. Is he kind of aloof? Yeah, but aloof now has two Super Bowl rings and two Super Bowl MVP trophies. New York fans will take aloof all day long and twice on Sunday.
- There’s not much more I can say about Mario Manningham’s catch that Cris Collinsworth didn’t already cover during the broadcast. Given the situation and the stakes, you won’t see a greater catch than that. While David Tyree’s helmet grab in Super Bowl XLII was more unbelievable, Manningham’s catch was still spectacular in its own right. The coverage was tight and yet Manning was able to put the ball in a spot that only Manningham could catch it, which he did – all while getting two feet in bounds and holding onto the pass as he crashed to the ground. What an incredible, incredible pass and catch.
- This win once again reaffirms how good of a coach Tom Coughlin is. He coaches in the toughest media market in the league, where he's constantly criticized for every mistake he makes and has been on the hot seat too many times to count. But the Giants do things right and that's in large part because of the work that Coughlin does. This team plays hard, is usually prepared and it never cowers to its competition. After two Super Bowl victories, Coughlin now writes his own ticket in my opinion. He’s bought himself another three or four years where people should just shut up and trust in his coaching ability. After all, the man has gotten the best of Bill Belichick not once, but twice in the Super Bowl.
- As a football fan I couldn’t help but feel a little underwhelmed following the game. It’s hard to complain when a Super Bowl isn’t decided until the final play but it was a lackluster first half and both of these teams essentially dinked and dunked their way up and down the field. (Outside of Manningham’s big catch, that is.) But the more I thought about it, the more impressed I was with the play of both defenses. Brady and Manning had to dink and dunk because the defenses took away the big play. It looked like the Giants were going to run away with the game early on but the Patriots deserve credit for taking away New York’s excellent passing game until late in the fourth quarter. The Giants pass rush was also as good as advertised, especially on the Pats’ first offensive play from scrimmage (when Brady was called for intentional grounding in the end zone) and on New England’s final drive of the game. While the Patriots’ tackling was piss poor throughout, there were plenty of big hits throughout the game as well. Have I seen better games? I think we all have, especially from an excitement standpoint. But you have to tip your hat to both defenses, especially when you consider how explosive both of these offenses were throughout the year.
- Although he got outplayed by Manning, it’s hard to criticize Tom Brady for his performance. He made a bone-headed decision the Pats’ first offensive play from scrimmage and it cost his team two points, but he caught fire in the middle of the game and played well enough for New England to win. Due to Rob Gronkowski being a non-factor, keep in mind that Brady didn’t have a dynamic threat in the passing game. I thought that in order for the Pats to win this game Brady would have to put together one of those Tom Brady-type performances. While he was certainly good, he wasn’t good enough as he once again played second-fiddle to Eli.
- That was definitely a drop by Wes Welker midway through the fourth quarter, but Brady deserves at least partial blame for the pass. Should Welker have caught the ball? No question. But if Brady hits Welker in stride that play may have gone for six and the Patriots probably win. It's not like Welker was blanketed in coverage: he was wide open. No one play determines the outcome of a game but that was a costly misfire by Brady and a bad drop by Welker, who usually makes that catch nine out of 10 times.
- Some will call the Patriots gutless for allowing Ahmad Bradshaw to waltz into the end zone on what turned out to be the game-winning touchdown. They’ll say that Bill Belichick gave up and will probably spew hypotheticals about how the Giants may have turned the ball over had the Pats played things straight up instead of clearing a path for Bradshaw to score. But I thought it was a smart move on Belichick’s part to preserve as much time as possible for Brady and his offense. Could the Giants have turned the ball over or missed the field goal? Yes, but it was doubtful that the Patriots got lucky like that for the second game in a row. How many times does a team drain the clock down to nothing and kick a game-winning field goal anyway? Granted, the move didn’t work out for the Patriots in the end but at least Belichick gave Brady a shot to put together one more magical fourth-quarter comeback. I liked the move, regardless of the outcome.
- Boy was I wrong about Rob Gronkowski or what? I thought he was healthier than the media led you to believe and that his ankle wasn’t going to be a factor. I even thought he would have a pretty big game. But it was clear that he couldn’t cut and move like he normally does and that made a big difference in New England’s passing game. Brady essentially didn’t have his best playmaker, even though Aaron Hernandez stepped up in Gronk’s “absence.” I’m not suggesting that the Patriots would have won had Gronk been 100-percent but when you think about how big of a weapon he was during the season, there’s no question that his injury factored into the outcome of the game. He basically limped around the field for three and a half hours.
- No matter what team you root for, it's hard not to feel for Patriots' owner Robert Kraft. That was a sad scene of him standing by himself watching the final play unfold knowing that his team just lost the Super Bowl. He just stood there in complete shock as the Giants began to celebrate. After losing his wife last year, my heart went out to him in that moment.
- I think Madonna could have used a couple of more minutes of stretching before she went on stage. She looked stiff in her first song and nearly fell off the back of those freaking bleachers in her second set. You're not 25 anymore Madonna - make sure those hamstrings aren't tight before you go hopping up and down on metal seats, woman!
- My vote for the best commercial was the NFL safety piece that went through the different years of equipment. That was very well done and the graphics were awesome. Outside of that, the pixy-dust ad was pretty good and Doritos made me laugh a couple of times. Overall the commercials weren't that funny though and I think I've had my fill of babies and dogs being in every other Super Bowl spot...
Fade Material: Super Bowl XLVI Prediction
Technically the Giants aren’t favored for Super Bowl XLVI but they might as well be.
New York doesn’t have the most marketable player (that would be Tom Brady) or the most wins between the two teams this season, but the Giants are the hotter squad and have already proven that they won’t cower to New England in any situation. They have the pass rush to once again slay Brady, a vastly underrated passing game and a quarterback in Eli Manning that doesn’t get nearly the respect he deserves for what he does for this New York team.
From a betting standpoint things look awfully good for the Giants as well. They’re 5-1 against the spread in their last six games versus the Patriots, 8-0 ATS in their last eight playoff games as an underdog and 8-1 ATS in their last nine playoff games overall. New England, meanwhile, is 1-7 against the number in its last eight playoff games and 1-6 ATS in its last seven playoff games as a favorite.
Every bone in my body says that the Giants are going to win tonight. But I don’t think they will.
I think the Giants have managed to become overconfident the past few weeks and an overconfident Giants team is a losing Giants team. I think Rob Gronkowski is healthier than people think and he’ll have a big game. I think Bill Belichick will once again take away what an opponent does best and in this case, that’s the Giants’ passing game. I think Tom Brady will have one of those Tom Brady-esq games where he throws for 375 yards and three touchdowns all while being unstoppable in the fourth quarter. I think the Patriots will win.
I’m siding with my gut over my head: Patriots 23, Giants 20.
Outside of Gronkowski, injuries shouldn’t be a factor heading into Super Bowl XLVI
For all intents and purposes, the Giants and Patriots will both be healthy when Super Bowl XLVI kicks off on Sunday.
Rob Gronkowki’s ankle remains the biggest injury concern for the Patriots, as the team has officially listed him as questionable. But the Pats also list nine other players as questionable and none are in danger of missing the game.
Safety Patrick Chung, offensive tackles Marcus Cannon and Sebastian Vollmer, linebackers Dane Fletcher, Rob Ninkovich, Tracy White and Brandon Spikes, receiver Wes Welker, defensive lineman Kyle Love, and guard Logan Mankins were all limited in practice this week but are expected to play. Outside of Gronkowski, all of those players were also listed as questionable for the AFC championship game and they all played.
As for the Patriots’ counterparts, the Giants are relatively healthy as well. Running back Ahmad Bradshaw, receiver Hakeem Nicks, defensive end Osi Umenyiora, cornerback Corey Webster, and linebacker Jacquian Williams were all limited in practice this week but are expected to play. Bradshaw is perhaps the team's biggest concern as he skipped the Giants' final practice because of soreness in his right foot, but again, he'll play.
Getting back to Gronkowski, at this point there’s no doubt that he’ll play. How effective he’ll be is another question, especially after halftime when he’s been off the ankle for 15-plus minutes.
Super Bowl XLVI By the Numbers
1 – Number of Super Bowls that Eli Manning has won. Ironically, it’s also the same number of Super Bowls that Tom Brady has lost.
3 – The opening point spread at most sports books of this year’s Super Bowl. (Patriots –3, that is.)
3.5 – Number of sacks that Osi Umenyiora has compiled this postseason, which ties him for the most along with Houston’s J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed.
4 – Number of defensive ends that the Giants can lineup at the same time. (Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora and Dave Tollefson.)
9 – Combined number of Pro Bowls that Manning and Brady have appeared in.
12.5 – The number that the Patriots were favored by the last time they played the Giants in the Super Bowl.
16 – Number of top-seeded teams from the AFC that have made the Super Bowl since 1977. (Only four were crowned champions, although the Patriots were one of those four in 2003.)
18 – Number of touchdowns Rob Gronkowski compiled during the regular season, second only to Philadelphia’s LeSean McCoy (20).
20 – Teams that fail to score 20 points in the Super Bowl are 1-22 since 1977. The only team since 1977 to score less than 20 points and still win? The 2008 Giants, who beat the Patriots, 17-14.
46 - Well, this one is pretty obvious...it's the number of passes Brady attempted in the Patriots' Week 16 win over the Dolphins.
55.5 – The total that most sports books opened at for this year’s Super Bowl.
75.4 – Brady’s passer rating against the Giants in the Patriots’ 24-20 loss in Week 9 of the regular season.
199 – The pick that the Patriots used to select Brady in 2000.
335 – Number of receiving yards Hakeem Nicks has compiled this postseason (best in the NFL).
3,982 – Average price, in dollars, of one Super Bowl ticket.
13,000 - Hotel rooms in Indianapolis. All are booked for the weekend and some at a 1,700% higher price than the conventional fee.
68,000 – Capacity at Lucas Oil Stadium after it was expanded from 63,000 for the big game.
3,500,000 – The cost of a 30-second commercial for this year’s Super Bowl.
50,000,000 – Estimated cases of beer consumed by fans on Super Bowl Sunday.
1.25 Billion - Apparently this is the number of chicken wings that will be consumed on Sunday. God we're fat...
Super Bowl XLVI: Three keys to victory for the Patriots
On Wednesday I discussed the three keys to victory for the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI. On Thursday, it’s the Patriots’ turn.
1. Brady has to be Brady.
We can talk until we’re blue in the face about whether or not New England’s defense will continue to play well. But the fact of the matter is that when Brady isn’t throwing for 400-plus yards and turning in one of those Tom Brady-type performances, the Patriots have looked very beatable this season. The week before the Pats lost to the Giants during the regular season, they lost to the Steelers 25-17 in Pittsburgh. In that game, Brady completed 24-of-35 passes, threw for two touchdowns and compiled a passer rating of 101.8. But he threw for just 198 yards as the Steelers kept everything in front of them and made more plays in the end. A week later Brady threw for 342 yards and two touchdowns but he also tossed two interceptions in a 24-20 loss to the Giants. Now, it’s not far to pin either of those losses solely on Brady and I’m not. But my point is that when he’s not Superman flying around in his red cape, the Pats look rather ordinary. Thus, this is Brady’s game to lose. He turned in a very lackluster performance two weeks ago in the AFC championship game versus the Ravens and privately promised owner Bob Kraft that he would play better in the Super Bowl. He better, because while the Patriots rely on him too much, if he isn’t Tom Brady then there’s a good chance that the G-Men will once again get the best of New England.
2. Pass protect or fall.
While they did allow two sacks, the Patriots’ offensive line actually did a very good job keeping the Giants’ front four in check when these two teams met during the regular season. (Jason Pierre-Paul had one sack but the other came from outside linebacker Michael Boley.) The Giants are most effective when they can generate pressure from the interior of their defensive line. When they get a push from up the middle, they don’t allow the quarterback to step up in the pocket and thus avoid pressure coming from the outside. The biggest concern for the Patriots is center Dan Connolly, who has struggled in pass protection all season. If he can’t raise the level of his play then the Patriots could have a mess on their hands when it comes to keeping Tom Brady upright. The other concern is Sebastian Vollmer, who was arguably the Pats’ best offensive lineman in that Week 9 loss to the Giants. Sidelined since Week 12 with back and ankle injuries, Vollmer is expected to be active this Sunday but how effective will he be? And will he start or will he serve in more of a swing role? New England can’t juggle its offensive line throughout the game and expect perfect results – especially inside a dome where noise could be a factor. That said, the Patriots have a top-10 line when it comes to pass protection so if Connolly can hold his own with Logan Mankins and Brian Waters in the middle, then New England might be able to neutralize New York’s fierce pass rush. Or at least they better play well or else the Pats’ offense could struggle all game.
3. The Pats must be solid on the back end.
For all intents and purposes, Kyle Arrington, James Ihedigbo and Patrick Chung struggled in coverage two weeks ago versus the Ravens. And while Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin are certainly respectable receivers, they don’t bring the same skill set to the field as Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. The thing that New England’s defense does best is stop the run. But the Giants aren’t coming into this game thinking that if they can just get Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw going that they’ll win. No, they’re going to throw the ball in the climate-friendly dome that the Colts call a home because that’s what they do best and that’s where they can take advantage of potentially mismatches. Thus, if the Patriots don’t play well on the backend then they’re going to be in trouble. Nicks and Cruz are serious vertical threats on the outside but Mario Manningham is also a danger to work the seam. Thus, all three levels have to be good in pass coverage on Sunday or else the Pats could be victimized through the air. Their pass rush has been inconsistent this season and if they can’t generate pressure then it’ll be up to Chung and Co. to step up. Granted, guys like Devin McCourty and Sterling Moore have played well throughout the season. But to borrow that old phrase: You’re only as strong as your weakest link. New England’s defense has steadily improved from the second half of the season up to this point. Now it’s time for them to put together their best performance of the year.
Super Bowl XLVI: Three keys to victory for the Giants
On Thursday I’ll discuss the three keys for the Patriots to win Super Bowl XLVI but today, let’s take a look at the Giants.
1. Pressure Brady with their four down linemen.
If I’ve written it once I’ve written it one hundred times: The key to beating any elite quarterback whether it’s Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, is to pressure him with your four down linemen. According to Pro Football Focus, Brady’s completion percentage this season when blitzed is 62.6. That number rises to 67.3 percent when he isn’t blitzed and 70.6 when he receives no pressure at all. But when he’s under pressure, his completion percentage falls to 48.6 and his QB rating falls to 88.8 (compared to 110.1 when he’s not under pressure and 115.3 when he’s blitzed). Blitzing can be an effective tool for any defense, but top quarterbacks will burn teams that rely on the blitz as their sole means of creating pressure. That’s one of the reasons why the Giants have had success against Brady in the last two meetings between these two teams. New York uses four defensive ends in passing situations, which is an advantage that no other team in the league possesses. Jason Pierre-Paul (16.5 sacks), Justin Tuck (5 sacks), Osi Umenyiora (9 sacks in just nine games) and Dave Tollefson (five sacks) can line up at the same time because Pierre-Paul and Tuck have the ability to play inside. The Giants also have the option of playing a combination of three of those ends with Mathias Kiwanuka (3.5 sacks), who is a highly versatile role player. So while other keys will certainly factor into a New York victory on Sunday, perhaps nothing is more vital than the Giants’ ability to rush Brady with their four down linemen and drop everyone else back into coverage. New York’s defense was built to do one thing: Get after the quarterback. If the Giants don’t pressure Brady on Sunday, they’ll have a hell of a time beating the Patriots again.
2. Manning needs to avoid turnovers.
When it comes to the Giants, the difference between winning and losing often comes down to one stat: Turnovers, or more specifically, Eli Manning’s turnovers. When Manning didn’t turn the ball over this season, the Giants were 6-0. When he turned the ball over only once during a game, the Giants were 5-2. When he turned the ball over two or more times, the Giants were 0-5. Simply put, the Giants don’t lose when Eli protects the football. When he doesn’t, it’s hard for this team to carry him when he’s making mistake after mistake. (This is one of the many reasons why I keep saying that without Eli’s play this season, the Giants wouldn’t have even made the playoffs.) Sunday will be no different. If Manning makes good decisions and doesn’t give Brady and Co. opportunities to score with a short field (or, conversely, take away potential points for the Giants), New York has an outstanding chance of winning. When Eli is on point he can be as good as anyone in the league from an efficiency standpoint. When he starts turning the ball over it’s as if his entire game falls apart. He’s more careless, he starts throwing off his back foot and his pocket presence flies out the window. The Redskins’ 23-10 victory over the Giants in Week 15 of the regular season is a perfect example of how quickly things can go south for New York if Eli struggles.
3. Attack, attack, attack.
Kevin Gilbride deserves a lot of credit for developing the most underrated passing attack in the league. People love to wax poetically about New Orleans, New England and Green Bay’s passing games but what about New York’s? Thanks to Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham’s, I would put the Giants’ passing attack up against any other team’s in the league outside of maybe the aforementioned Saints, Patriots and Packers. That said, it wasn’t too long ago that New York fans were screaming for Gilbride’s head because the offensive coordinator was being too conservative when it came to his play calling and his approach inside the red zone. When the Giants would get inside the 20, Gilbride would often take his foot off the gas and New York’s offense would get bogged down. Thus, it’s important for Gilbride to continue to attack through the air. The Patriots have a slew of young defensive backs playing in their first Super Bowl, including a safety in Patrick Chung that struggled in pass coverage last week versus Baltimore. Although New England has played much better defensively over the past couple of weeks, the Giants have a huge edge when it comes to their receivers being matched up against the Patriots’ defensive backs. Now isn’t the time for Gilbride to rest on his laurels and hold his passing game back. New England’s front seven is good against the run, so the Giants need to dance with the date that brought them.
Super Bowl XLVI point spread continues to move, but Patriots remain favored
As the point spread for Super Bowl XLVI continues to dance leading up to Sunday’s 6:30PM ET kickoff, one thing remains constant: The Patriots will be favored.
Depending on the sports book, the Pats opened as a 4, 3.5, or 3-point favorite over the Giants when the line was released on Championship Sunday. But the spread has dropped to 3 or 2.5 at most books as the majority of wagers continue to come in on the Giants.
According to the public betting charts available at The Spread, the majority of the early money has been placed on New York, which has forced some sports books to drop the spread to New England –2.5. The total, meanwhile, continues to drop as well, falling from 55.5 to 54.5 at most books.
It’s no surprise that bettors are backing a Giants team that upset the Patriots as a 9-point underdog back in November of last year. Eli Manning rallied New York to a 24-20 victory when he found Jake Ballard for a one-yard touchdown with just 15 seconds remaining in the game. The Giants also ruined the Patriots’ attempt at a perfect season back in 2008 when they pulled off an incredible 17-14 upset as a 12.5-point dog. Thus, bettors aren’t afraid to lay coin on the G-Men.
The Giants are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games against the Patriots while the underdog is 5-1 against the number in the last six meetings between these two teams. New York is also 8-0 ATS in its last eight playoff games as an underdog and 8-1 ATS in its last nine playoff games overall. New England, meanwhile, is just 1-6 against the spread in its last seven playoff games as a favorite and 1-7 ATS in its last eight playoff games overall.
The spread will probably jump between 3 and 2.5 throughout the rest of the week, although it would be surprising to see the number jump to 3.5 or fall below 2.5. Odds makers seem comfortable with the spread dancing between 3 and 2.5.
Check Bullz-Eye.com for the latest Super Bowl XLVI point spread.
Super Bowl XLVI Giants vs. Patriots: Five Questions
With kickoff of Super Bowl XLVI rapidly approaching, what are some of the bigger questions surrounding Sunday’s title game?
1. Can Brady shake out of his Giant funk?
There are just some teams that Tom Brady doesn’t play well against. Entering this year’s AFC championship game, Brady’s completion percentage in five career outings against the Ravens was 55.9, which was his lowest against any team in the league. So it wasn’t any wonder while he compiled a 57.5 QB rating in a lackluster 239-yard, two-interception performance versus Baltimore two Sundays ago. Now he faces a New York team that, again, for whatever reason, he’s had trouble beating. From a passer-rating standpoint, Brady had his worst performance of the season in a Week 9 home loss to the Giants. His quarterback rating of 75.4 in the 24-20 loss was only slightly worse than his 82.5 rating in Super Bowl XLII back in 2008. Save for his 356-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Giants in Week 17 of the ’07 regular season, Brady has struggled to beat this New York team. Following his poor performance, he reportedly told owner Robert Kraft in the locker room following the AFC title game that he would play better in Super Bowl XLVI. For a quarterback that has largely been viewed as cool, calm and collected, it’s not a stretch to think that Brady is feeling the pressure of potentially losing yet another game to the Giants.
2. Can the Patriots slow the Giants’ pass rush?
These two teams have met three times since December of 2007 and during that span the Giants have sacked Brady a total of eight times (including five times in their Super Bowl victory in February of ’08). New York uses four defensive ends in passing situations, which is something no other team can boast. Jason Pierre-Paul (16.5 sacks), Justin Tuck (5 sacks), Osi Umenyiora (9 sacks in just nine games) and Dave Tollefson (five sacks) can line up at the same time because Pierre-Paul and Tuck have the ability to play inside. The Giants also have the option of playing a combination of three of those ends with Mathias Kiwanuka (3.5 sacks), who is a highly versatile role player. It’s no coincidence that Brady struggled in New England’s 24-20 home loss to New York in Week 9 considering that was one of the games Umenyiora was healthy for. When the Giants can dress all five of their pass rushers they’re a completely different defense – a defense that the Patriots and their usually solid group of pass blockers has had trouble with in the past two meetings with New York.
3. Can the Pats’ defense slow down all of the Giants’ weapons?
The Giants’ offense doesn’t receive nearly enough attention for how explosive it is. In a lot of ways, that’s a direction reflection of how some view Eli Manning, who also doesn’t receive the recognition he deserves for being a quarterback that can put pressure on a defense with his playmaking ability. For all of the attention that the Giants’ pass rush has received lately, without Manning’s outstanding play the Giants wouldn’t have won nine games this season. They wouldn’t have made the playoffs, upset the Packers at Lambeau, or have an opportunity to make it two-for-two against the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Granted, Manning has had help. Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz have been outstanding for a New York passing attack that stacks up to any offense in the league outside of maybe New Orleans, New England and Green Bay. Mario Manningham is also a weapon in the vertical game because he can attack a defense along the seam, which is important seeing as how New York doesn’t have a Jimmy Graham-type at tight end. Throw in Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs (who both have awoken from their season-long slumber) and yes, the Giants offense is that good. That said, New England’s red-zone defense has allowed just two touchdowns in seven opportunities throughout the playoffs, as Denver went 1-of-3 inside the 20 in the Divisional round and Baltimore went 1-of-4 in the AFC title game. Statically speaking the Patriots weren’t very good defensively this season. But they’re starting to come together on that side of the ball so it’ll be interesting to see who wins the Giants’ O vs. Patriots D matchup come Sunday.
4. Will Belichick continue to make sound second-half adjustments?
Baltimore has been the only team in the past seven weeks that has matched New England after halftime. The Ravens and Patriots each scored 10 points apiece in the second half of last Sunday’s AFC championship game, but other than that New England has killed teams in the final two quarters. The Pats have allowed an average of 5.7 second-half points in their last six games, which is an indication that Bill Belichick and his coaching staff are making sound in-game and halftime adjustments. In fact, New England has outscored opponents 111-34 in the second half over their past six games so it’ll be interesting to see how Sunday’s game plays out. If the Giants build a first-half lead, can they sustain it?
5. How effective will the “Gronk” be?
At this point the question isn’t whether Rob Gronkowsi will play but rather how effective will he be. This isn’t the same situation as last year with Pittsburgh center Maurkice Pouncey, who never really had a realistic shot of playing in the Super Bowl after suffering a high ankle sprain in the AFC championship game, because Gronk is going to play. But remember two years ago when Colts’ defensive end Dwight Freeney tore a ligament in his right ankle late in the AFC title game versus the Jets, played in the Super Bowl but was largely ineffective? Will Gronk be the same player he was for the Pats during the regular season or will he serve as merely a decoy in passing situations? We already know that Gronkowski will likely need his left ankle scoped following Sunday’s game so it’s not unrealistic to believe he could be severely limited. Granted, the Pats do have Aaron Hernandez, who not unlike Gronkowski is a weapon from the slot or tight end position. But the “Gronk” was nearly unstoppable this season and is a major mismatch against defensive backs and linebackers. The Patriots need him to be as healthy as possible if their offense is going to fire on all cylinders.
Will Boise State's Kellen Moore go undrafted?
Sporting News draft analyst Russ Lande writes that Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore is in danger of being undrafted following a poor week in Mobile for the Senior Bowl.
Coming to Mobile, Moore needed to really step up, but things could not have gone much worse for him. Not only did he measure under 6 feet, but he showed below-average arm strength and lacked accuracy on passes longer than 10 yards. He did not show the arm strength to make all the NFL throws with good velocity and had a long delivery and release, which made it easier for defenders to break, close and make plays on his passes. Moore will have to be amazing at the Combine and his pro day if he hopes to get drafted.
This isn’t all that surprising of a report. Moore isn’t the type of quarterback who will force defenses to cover the entire field because his arm strength is limited. His lack of size also becomes a problem when a defense is able to create pressure from the interior and push the pocket into his face. He simply has a lack of physical skills that cannot be overcome, even by a great combine or Pro Day performance.
But that doesn’t mean that Moore won’t prove to be a quality backup or provide depth at the next level. He’s very accurate with the football, has good pocket awareness and he’s able to decipher information quickly. Thus, he shouldn’t be discouraged if he isn’t drafted because he does have a future in the NFL if he gets in the right system.
As a Browns fan, it's annoying to watch the rock-solid organization in Pittsburgh that produces consistent winners for the Steelers. The Rooney family knows how to run a football team. They find great coaches and stick with them. Continuity is one of their greatest advantages over teams like the Browns who change regimes every couple of years.
With that backdrop, it's a little surprising to see Art Rooney II interject himself so directly into team affairs with the decision to not bring back offensive coordinator Bruce Arians. Ben Roethlisberger isn't happy.
“When I get back, I’m going to go up to Mr. Rooney’s office and ask him what he wants from me, what he wants from this offense, because I think that’s a viable question for him,” Roethlisberger said. “He’s our owner and our boss, so I really would like to know kind of what he wants and where he sees our offense going because I’d like to tell him where I see us going.”Roethlisberger said he thinks Arians was building one of the NFL’s best offenses, and he’s surprised that Arians won’t get to continue doing that.
“We feel like we are really close to being an elite offense,” Roethlisberger said. “For your leader to be gone is kind of a shocker, but you’ve got to be ready for whatever the Rooneys and coach [Mike] Tomlin decide it our next step.”
The Steelers have had some problems, mostly with keeping Big Ben healthy. There's a feeling in the organization that they need to get back to running the football. But this team had a lot of success with Arians, who basically unleashed Roethlisberger and let him become an elite quarterback with his improvisation skills.
We'll see how this plays out. The Steelers will have quite a bit of turnover, particularly on defense, as the team is getting older. Now we'll be seeing some changes on offense as well.
At this point, a separation might be good for both Manning and the Colts
Based on some of the comments coming out of Indianapolis these days, it would appear as though Peyton Manning’s career with the Colts is coming to an end.
Such as life. Times change, people separate, memories fade. Why should sports be any different?
According to ESPN NFL Business Analyst Andrew Brandt, it would cost the Colts $50.5 million to keep Manning and Andrew Luck on the same roster in 2012. Manning’s option is $28 million in addition to a $7.4 million salary while the No. 1 overall pick will receive approximately $15.1 million in bonus plus salary in 2012. Thus, it doesn’t make sense financially for the Colts to pay Manning and draft Luck while trying to fill holes all over a depleted roster.
It doesn’t make sense from a risk/reward standpoint either. Manning is 35 and is still trying to recover from neck surgery that he had last May. I’m not a doctor but when you listen to other athletes talk about the same nerve damage that Manning has, it’s feasible that he could have complications the rest of his career. That’s why there’s still plenty of speculation about whether or not he’ll ever play again.
I’m not trying to be cold because I’m very aware of what Manning has meant to the Colts franchise over these past 14 seasons. But former Giants GM Ernie Accorsi said it best when he stated that he would rather be accused of getting rid of a player a year too early rather than a year too late. This is a business decision and the right business decision for the Colts is to part ways with Manning and draft their future signal caller while they have that chance. There are teams like the Browns, Dolphins, Bills and Redskins who continuously fail to address their quarterback situation and the Colts have a golden opportunity to replace one franchise signal caller with another in just one fell swoop. Cold? Probably. But smart? Definitely.
Let’s not overlook the fact that this could be a good thing for Manning as well. During John Elway’s final years he essentially took a backseat to Terrell Davis because the Broncos became Davis’ team. He won two Super Bowls handing the ball off to Davis and throwing when he had to, but Manning doesn’t have that same fortune. The Colts proved last year that they’re a serious rebuilding project. At this point in his career, Manning shouldn’t be at the helm of a rebuilding team: he should be trying to take one more shot at winning a Super Bowl just like Elway did. (Assuming of course that Manning is healthy enough to ever pick up a football again.)
In a perfect world the Colts would already have Manning’s replacement on their roster. But they don’t, and now this is the situation that they find themselves in. Separations are never easy and if the Colts do decide to move on from Manning, it will be a hard decision. But it doesn’t have to be difficult.
Times change, people separate, memories fade. That’s just life.
Post-game speech from Ray Lewis
Check out the video above showing Ray Lewis in the Baltimore locker room following their loss to the Patriots. You'll be hard pressed to find a classier post-game speech from an athlete. Lewis finds a way to put the loss in perspective and motivate everyone to do something for others.
It's hard to believe this guy has come so far since his early brushes with the law. The guy works at being a great player, and he also seems to be working on being a better human being.
Lewis will be back next year for his 17th season.











