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Fantasy Football Draft Day Do's and Don'ts

Philadelphia Eagles running back LeSean McCoy (L) runs past San Francisco 49ers cornerback Shawntae Spencer for a touchdown during the second quarter of their NFL football game in San Francisco, California October 10, 2010. REUTERS/Robert Galbraith (UNITED STATES - Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

Regular TSR readers may have noticed that I haven't written much (any) fantasy football content here this season. That's because I've launched my own site (FantasyShrink.com) and have also joined 4for4.com as Contributing Editor.

I thought I'd put together a quick list of do's and don'ts that fantasy owners should keep in mind on draft day. These are meant for fantasy owners in 12-team drafts. If you're in a 10-team league, you can typically wait longer than the rounds I'll mention.

DO utilize the ol' RB/RB draft strategy in the first two rounds if your league requires two starting RBs (or has a RB and a flex position). The depth at RB is pretty thin this season and I'm not too confident in the guys that are available in the 3rd/4th rounds. Ahmad Bradshaw is an exception, as is Jahvid Best in PPR leagues. Meanwhile, the depth at WR is solid, so it makes sense to go RB/RB/WR/WR in the first four rounds.

If you're in a PPR league, DO consider LeSean McCoy amongst the top six RBs (the others are Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles and Chris Johnson). In standard leagues, Rashard Mendenhall is a solid pick at 1.06. If you're outside the top 6 in PPR formats, DO draft Darren McFadden, who has the most upside of any RB in the second tier.

In the second round, DO consider Peyton Hillis and Matt Forte, especially in PPR formats.

In the late 2nd or early 3rd, DO consider Mike Wallace and Vincent Jackson. Both players are good bets to finish in the top 10 at WR.

In the 4th/5th rounds of PPR drafts, DO look to grab Felix Jones, who should make a fine RB2 for those owners who drafted a WR or QB early.

DON'T draft a QB early, not when you can get Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan or Josh Freeman in the 6th/7th rounds. Even if you miss out on those guys, Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning and Jay Cutler are good lead QBs in a Quarterback By Committee.

DO try to get Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford or Ryan Fitzpatrick as your QB2. Also, Colt McCoy is shooting up my rankings due to his fine preseason play. Kevin Kolb is another decent option due to his strong job security.

If you're in a PPR league, DO draft a stud TE in the 4th (Antonio Gates) or 5th (Jason Witten, Dallas Clark or Jermichael Finley). There is a lot of depth at TE this year, so if you miss out on these guys wait until the 8th or 9th and pick Rob Gronkowski, Marcedes Lewis or Kellen Winslow.

Jacksonville Jaguars Don Carey cant stop New York Giants Mario Manningham from diving into the end zone for a 26 yard touchdown in the fourth quarter at New Meadowlands Stadium in week 12 of the NFL in East Rutherford, New Jersey on November 28, 2010. The Giants defeated the Jaguars 24-20. UPI /John Angelillo

DO target Mario Manningham in the 5th/6th round. He should be a very solid WR2 in all formats with Steve Smith gone, and is one of my favorite middle-round value picks.

DON'T draft Marques Colston or Anquan Boldin before the 6th and 8th rounds, respectively. Colston is dealing with a knee injury while Boldin has lost a step.

DO target Mike Thomas, Santana Moss and Lance Moore in the middle rounds. In PPR leagues, DO look for Danny Amendola and Davone Bess as your WR4.

DO target Mike Tolbert or Tim Hightower if you need a RB3 in the 7th/8th rounds. Both players are likely to outperform their current ADP (Average Draft Position).

DO spend a 12th/13th rounder on Terrell Owens -- he'll land somewhere early in the season and get WR1/WR2 targets the rest of the way.

DON'T waste a pick on Randy Moss. He may very well come out of retirement, but he proved last season that he can't acclimate to new teams very well.

DO look to snag Greg Olsen, Jared Cook or Brent Celek as your TE2. DON'T draft Chris Cooley, who is dealing with a troublesome knee injury. DO think about his backup, Fred Davis, in the later rounds.

If you're in a league with many/unlimited transactions, DON'T draft a defense before the 13th round. Target the Patriots if the Packers, Eagles, Jets and Steelers are all gone. If you miss out on NE, DO utilize Defensive Team By Committee or Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (which will be a weekly feature at 4for4).

DON'T pick a kicker before the 15th round. Target guys who kick for teams with good offenses like Stephen Gostkowski, Alex Henery, Garrett Hartley and Adam Vinatieri. Josh Brown, Matt Bryant and Neil Rackers are good sleepers.

Finally, DO sign up at 4for4.com, where I'll be posting my waiver picks, DTBWW and more on a weekly basis. Readers who use this link to subscribe will have a better chance of getting their questions answered during the season. Click here for details.

Fantasy Impact of Free Agency

If you're wondering how your fantasy team will be impacted by the NFL's fast and furious free agency period, I've been writing daily recaps over at 4for4.com:

Tuesday, July 26
Wednesday, July 27

I've also launched FantasyShrink.com, which will host my rankings this season, while my Waiver Wire Watch and Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (and more) will be going up on 4for4. Read more about my new position with 4for4.

Deal reached on NFL rookie wage scale

DeMaurice Smith, NFL Players Association Executive Director arrives for labor negotiation meetings between the National Football League and the National Football League Players Association in New York, July 14, 2011. The National Football League and some of the game's top quarterbacks agreed on Wednesday it is time to reach an agreement to end a four-month-old lockout rather than risk disrupting the start of the 2011 season. REUTERS/Jamie Fine (UNITED STATES - Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

The NFL and the players are heading towards a settlement now that the rookie wage scale has been agreed to.

You can start studying to get a leg up on your fantasy football draft, and you can book that trip to Vegas for a weekend in the sports book!

How to draft a fantasy football team

Green Bay Packers Greg Jennings (85) celebrates after catching a pass against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the fourth quarter during the NFL's Super Bowl XLV football game in Arlington, Texas, February 6, 2011. REUTERS/Mike Stone (UNITED STATES - Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

Are we going to have an NFL season? Things are looking up, so hopefully we'll be able to gear up and get ready for some football.

As part of Bullz-Eye.com's Get real Guide, TSR's John Paulsen has a help guide to how to draft a fantasy football team. Check it out and start get a head start!

8 Ways to Track Your Fantasy Football Players

Football.

Football is one of the great American pastimes, with the Super Bowl each year drawing record numbers of spectators from all over the world. Of course, for most people, watching their favorite football players on NFL Sunday ticket is as close as they ever come to actually managing a team or being involved in the sport.

However, if you are really desperate to test out your football knowledge, you can always set up a fantasy team and see how many points you get at the end of the season. Following team members and individual players is a key aspect of this activity, and, luckily, there are a number of ways you can track your fantasy football players to see how many points they are getting each week.

1. Draft Analyzer

This is an award-winning piece of PC software that allows you to track the performance of football players and make sure your fantasy team is racking up as many points as possible. The product is sold by ESPN and CBS.Sportsline.com to ensure accuracy and even comes with recommendations for upcoming key players and teams.

The software also comes complete with rankings for each player which get updated as the season goes on - all you need to do is click a simple button and you get the most recent results and predictions for all the key football players. This is certainly a useful tool when you are picking a fantasy football team!

2. PCDrafter

This is another piece of computer software that can be downloaded onto your desktop or laptop. The tool works by using a complex mathematical algorithm to work out which players are performing well and which are struggling.

What's more, the tool comes with a discussion forum where you can talk to other like-minded individuals about the season and who your key picks are. Who knows, you might even meet some new competition online who thinks they can predict the season better than you can!

3. Fantasy Draft Assistant

Another online tool that is becoming more and more popular with fantasy football players is Fantasy Draft Assistant. This Windows application allows you to rank draft players depending on how their season is going.

You can also use the in-built draft tracking technology without having to constantly switch back and forth between two different screens. Users can also print various cheat sheets and study a player's rankings in depth with the use of this service.

4. TundraBall

Of course, you don't have to rely simply on applications and programs to pick your fantasy team—there are plenty of good websites out there as well. This site provides users with a range of features, such as team accounts and in-league betting, while those who want to get to know other people on the site can use the dedicated chat rooms to set up their own football discussions.

The live statistics function is useful for those who want to make sure they are on the cutting edge of football news. It makes sure you never miss an announcement or decision in the big leagues.

5. Fandora's Box

Sometimes, you may want to get updates sent directly to you wherever you are. With Fandora's dedicated SMS text service, you can do just that! The service will regularly send you text message updates of all the big news and events in the football arena, including milestone alerts from individual games.

Wherever you are, you can be sure you will receive the most recent information that will help you pick and modify your perfect fantasy team.

6. Pro Football

One important aspect of fantasy football is keeping up with the latest news even when games are not being played. Pro Football offers an iPhone app to let users do just that.

The latest stats, predictions, injury assessments and lots more will be delivered directly to your mobile phone at regular intervals, and although you will most likely have to pay for the app, it is a small price to pay to know that you are getting the key pieces of information before anyone else in your league does!

7. MyFantasyTeams

Luckily, mobile phone apps are not limited to Apple devices like the iPhone. MyFantasyTeams is a useful application that can be downloaded onto a Blackberry to help you make changes to your team on the move. The app allows users to alter line-ups and read the latest news wherever they have a mobile connection.

8. American Football Trivia

After a long hard day of altering teams and analyzing stats to make sure your fantasy team is performing at its best, why not take a break and simply enjoy the great sport of football? This app (available on the Blackberry) offers fans the chance to relax and unwind by testing their knowledge of the sport and helping them keep on their toes regarding every aspect of football.

Although it is not primarily designed to help you manage your fantasy teams, the knowledge you gain from answering the football trivia questions should stand you in good stead when it comes to making that all important line-up change!

Conclusion

One of the most important aspects of managing a fantasy football team is making sure you have the most up to date information at hand and that you are able to alter your team as and when you see fit. Luckily, any of the above apps and devices will help you keep a close eye on your team and beat the competitors in your fantasy league.

The fantasy impact of the first round

For the 2011 season, my fantasy content will be published on my new site, FantasyShrink.com. I just posted a piece about the fantasy impact of the first round of the NFL Draft. Check it out.

Jon Gruden's QB Camp: The Complete Collection

Here are Jon Gruden's QB Camp videos with Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Ryan Mallett and Andy Dalton.

Cam Newton

Blaine Gabbert

Jake Locker

Ryan Mallett

Andy Dalton

2011 NFL Schedule Grid

The 2011 NFL schedule has been released. Check it out on my new fantasy football website, Fantasy Shrink.

Jemele Hill and Skip Bayless react to Jenn Sterger interview [video]

I broke down the first part of her interview yesterday, and generally speaking, I think Hill is missing the point. Sterger wants to answer charges that she's a gold-digger, and apparently she's not. She hasn't profited from this situation at all. Good for her. But she also wants to answer charges that she's a home-wrecker, and those accusations are not so easily dismissed since she did engage in some sort of interaction through text message with Favre for a period of time.

If she wasn't interested in what he had to say, then she never should have responded to him. Ignore his texts and voicemails and he'll eventually go away. But she didn't do that. She admitted to texting him but couldn't recall what her texts were about, claiming that she was just trying to figure out who it was. So something doesn't add up.

Regardless, I think we're all ready for this story to finally go away. But let's not leave this thinking that Sterger is some sort of victim. Had she not interacted with Favre via text or shared those texts/voicemails with friends, this story never would have seen the light of day. Favre is mostly responsible for the interaction/incident, but she was complicit by responding to those texts. And due to her poor choice in confidants, she was mostly responsible for this story becoming public.

Here's the problem with Pro Football Talk

Arizona Cardinals receiver Larry Fitzgerald runs to score a touchdown on a pass from quarterback Kurt Warner during play against the Green Bay Packers in their NFL playoff game in Glendale, Arizona January 10, 2010. REUTERS/Rick Scuteri (UNITED STATES - Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

Pro Football Talk is associated with NBC and is a juggernaut in the industry (82K Twitter followers and counting), and while I appreciate the work that guys like Gregg Rosenthal and Evan Silva do in fantasy circles, some of PFT's practices bother me.

For example, I just saw this headline on Twitter:

Reading that, I'm thinking, "Wow, Fitzy must have said something pointed about Gabbert."

Clicking through to the article, I see Fitzgerald's actual quote:

“I would doubt that we would draft a quarterback that high (No. 5),” Fitzgerald told FOX Sports Arizona on Tuesday. “I would doubt it. But, who am I? I’m just a player."

The author, Silva (whose work I generally respect), concluded that Fitzgerald must be talking about Blaine Gabbert, since the Cardinals have been linked to the Missouri QB.

Only Fitzgerald never mentioned Gabbert. And he never said that the Cardinals shouldn't draft a QB. He just said that he doubted they would. Big difference.

Headlines are meant to drive interest and traffic, I get that. But this one was simply misleading.

What is a "pegged" cap and why should you care?

DeMaurice Smith, NFL Players Association Executive Director, makes a statement after negotiations collapsed between the National Football League (NFL) and National Football League Players' Association (NFLPA) in Washington on March 11, 2011. The last real hope for a quick end to the dispute ended when the union representing the players (NFLPA) filed a court application to dissolve itself after failing to reach an agreement with league and owners over a range of issues. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts (UNITED STATES - Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL EMPLOYMENT BUSINESS)

The latest scuttlebutt out of the NFL labor non-negotiation negotiations is the idea of a "pegged" cap, which was reportedly brought up by the players. A pegged cap is a stable salary cap that is based on revenue projections and goes up at a set amount each season. The last CBA had a salary cap based on actual annual revenue that could go up or down each year depending on which way the wind was blowing.

Why does this matter?

Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio explains...

If the actual numbers come in lower, the players still get paid. One major area of dispute has arisen from the question of whether and to what extent the actual performance exceeds the projected revenue growth. The owners’ offer of March 11 omitted that wrinkle; the players want to share in the upside.

The players, we’re told, prefer a “pegged cap” approach to expense credits because it entails simpler auditing and fewer disputes.

I'm on the players' side in this debate, but if they are getting guaranteed pay no matter how the league is actually doing, then they can't really demand a substantial share of the upside. If they have no downside, why should they get considerable upside?

Of course, it all depends on the projections used to create the pegged cap. If they're conservative, and revenue is very likely to be greater, then the players do deserve a share. If the projections are aggressive, then the players should be happy they have stable salaries with no downside and forget about trying to get a piece of the additional revenue.

Florio continues...

As of right now, the two sides are $10 million apart per team on the the “pegged cap” approach, which is driven by projected revenues. The owners have offered $141 million per team in salary and benefits, and the players have requested $151 million. If they can bridge the gap and devise a procedure for handling any excess growth, they should be able to do a deal fairly quickly.

Well, that's awfully optimistic given the current status of the negotiations, which are at a standstill. The two sides need to get talking again, but that is unlikely since they're waiting on the courts to decide the fate of the lockout.

Tick-tock, people! (Don't they know I have fantasy football rankings to put together?)


Which DTs were most productive in 2010?

Other positions: QB | RB | WR | TE | DT

When doing a postmortem on any fantasy football season, I like to look at how a particular player performed on a per game basis adjusted for his strength of schedule (SOS). DTs are no different, except that they all played the same number of games. SOS will have an impact, but the per game aspect of it won't make much of a difference.

Keep in mind that I used the following scoring system:

DT/ST TD = 6 points
Safety = 2 points
INT = 1 point
Fumble = 1 point
Sack = 1 point

Defensive Points Allowed
Shutout = 10
2 - 6 = 8
7 - 10 = 6
11 - 14 = 4
15 - 19 = 2
20+ = 0

Here's a look at how the 32 DTs stack up against each other when SOS bias is removed:


#TeamPPGSOS AdjAdj PPG
1PIT10.3-0.210.4
2NE10.10.110.0
3GB9.50.09.5
4NYJ8.9-0.39.3
5OAK9.10.28.8
6ARI8.80.38.5
7CHI8.50.18.4
8BAL7.9-0.28.1
9SD7.8-0.28.0
10KC7.90.27.7
11DET7.70.07.7
12ATL8.10.57.6
13NYG7.80.47.4
14DAL7.50.17.4
15TEN7.2-0.27.3
16SEA7.80.67.1
17MIA6.3-0.77.0
18PHI6.80.06.8
19SF7.00.36.7
20WAS6.4-0.26.6
21NO7.10.56.6
22TB7.00.46.6
23BUF5.9-0.56.5
24IND6.1-0.36.4
25MIN6.3-0.16.4
26CLE5.9-0.36.3
27STL6.70.66.1
28CIN5.2-0.55.6
29CAR4.6-0.34.8
30DEN3.9-0.14.0
31JAX3.8-0.24.0
32HOU3.8-0.24.0

Essentially, the column on the far right is the baseline for the 2011 season. Once we know each team's week-by-week schedule, we can adjust for 2011 projected SOS and come up with a tentative list from which to work with. Obviously, if a defense signs an impact free agent or hires a new defensive coordinator, that will have to be taken into account as well.

It's interesting that there are four perennially solid DTs at the top of the list (PIT, NE, GB, NYJ), but would anyone be surprised if #5 Oakland or #6 Arizona took a big fall in 2011? After the aforementioned four DTs, I just see a large group of middling fantasy defenses that are all about the same.

So long after the Steelers, Patriots, Packers and Jets fly off the board during the draft, I'll probably be looking to build a Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC) with a couple of these middling defenses whose schedules happen to combine favorably.

But that's another post for another time.

Which TEs were most productive in 2010?

Other positions: QB | RB | WR | TE | DT

Here's a look at the Top 50 TEs of 2010 in terms of adjusted fantasy points per game, which is calculated by dividing the player’s total points by the number of games he played and then adjusting the result by the average schedule bias for his team. Keep in mind these are points scored in a standard (non-PPR) scoring system. (The PPR table is further down.)


#NamePPGSOS AdjAdj PPG
1Antonio Gates13.80.0513.8
2Jason Witten9.6-0.019.6
3Jermichael Finley9.0-0.289.3
4Dallas Clark8.80.258.5
5Vernon Davis8.30.308.0
6Marcedes Lewis8.10.178.0
7Rob Gronkowski7.20.067.1
8Aaron Hernandez6.90.066.9
9Todd Heap6.90.206.7
10Chris Cooley6.4-0.286.7
11Kellen Winslow Jr.6.4-0.086.5
12Zach Miller6.60.066.5
13Tony Gonzalez6.40.026.3
14Brandon Pettigrew6.0-0.126.1
15Ben Watson5.9-0.156.0
16Dustin Keller6.20.255.9
17Kevin Boss5.50.045.5
18Owen Daniels5.40.005.4
19Jacob Tamme5.40.255.2
20Brent Celek4.7-0.475.2
21Anthony Fasano5.10.085.0
22Joel Dreessen4.70.004.7
23Jeremy Shockey4.5-0.164.7
24Jermaine Gresham4.70.074.7
25Jimmy Graham4.4-0.164.5
26Tony Moeaki4.90.584.3
27Heath Miller4.50.204.3
28Greg Olsen4.40.084.3
29Visanthe Shiancoe4.1-0.094.2
30Michael Hoomanawanui4.10.054.0
31Bo Scaife4.00.103.9
32Fred Davis3.1-0.283.4
33Evan Moore3.2-0.153.3
34Daniel Fells3.20.053.1
35Tony Scheffler2.9-0.123.0
36David Thomas2.6-0.162.8
37John Carlson2.5-0.152.7
38Andrew Quarless2.3-0.282.6
39Jared Cook2.60.102.5
40Randy McMichael2.10.052.1


A few random thoughts:

-- When healthy, Antonio Gates is clearly the best fantasy TE in football. But Jason Witten has been more durable, especially lately, while Jermichael Finley and Dallas Clark could give Gates and Witten a run for those top two spots.

- Marcedes Lewis finished TE6 and could see an uptick in targets with Mike Sims-Walker no longer around. He's currently going in the 8th round and is the 10th TE off the board.

-- Jimmy Graham's numbers down the stretch (26-307-5 over the last eight games) project to TE7 numbers over the course of a 16-game season. He's currently going TE6, so don't expect him to be around in the 7th or 8th round of 12-team drafts.

-- Zach Miller's mid-season swoon was mainly due to a plantar fascia injury in his foot. He averaged 5.0-60-0.5 in Weeks 1-7 and 14-17. Those are TE4 numbers. Don't sleep on Miller.



#NamePPGSOS AdjAdj PPG
1Antonio Gates18.80.0318.8
2Jason Witten15.5-0.0415.5
3Dallas Clark15.00.2114.7
4Jermichael Finley14.3-0.2714.5
5Chris Cooley11.2-0.4511.7
6Vernon Davis11.80.2411.6
7Marcedes Lewis11.80.1611.6
8Tony Gonzalez10.70.0210.7
9Brandon Pettigrew10.5-0.1910.6
10Kellen Winslow Jr.10.60.0710.5
11Zach Miller10.60.0710.5
12Ben Watson10.1-0.1410.3
13Aaron Hernandez10.10.199.9
14Todd Heap10.00.339.7
15Rob Gronkowski9.80.199.6
16Jacob Tamme9.60.219.4
17Dustin Keller9.60.469.1
18Owen Daniels8.8-0.118.9
19Jermaine Gresham8.20.218.0
20Brent Celek7.3-0.627.9
21Kevin Boss7.90.017.9
22Anthony Fasano7.70.207.5
23Tony Moeaki8.00.717.3
24Heath Miller7.50.347.2
25Visanthe Shiancoe7.0-0.167.2
26Joel Dreessen7.0-0.117.1
27Greg Olsen7.0-0.017.0
28Jimmy Graham6.5-0.226.7
29Bo Scaife6.60.026.5
30Tony Scheffler5.9-0.196.1
31Daniel Fells5.8-0.065.8
32Michael Hoomanawanui5.7-0.065.8
33David Thomas4.9-0.225.1
34Fred Davis4.4-0.454.9
35John Carlson4.6-0.244.8
36Evan Moore4.5-0.144.7
37Jared Cook4.40.024.4
38Andrew Quarless3.9-0.274.2
39Dante Rosario3.6-0.394.0
40Martellus Bennett3.7-0.043.7

-- Tony Gonzalez moves up five spots in the PPR rankings. He should be a serviceable fantasy TE in both formats for one more year. One of the best to ever play the position.

-- Brandon Pettigrew also five spots better in PPR formats. Not clear if he's going to be a favorite target of Matthew Stafford though. Shaun Hill really looked his way.

-- Conversely, Rob Gronkowski moves eight spots down in PPR leagues. He catches a lot of TDs and not as many passes, though he did have 14 grabs in his last three games (including the postseason). He emerged as the better TE in NE and should be the top guy heading into 2011.

-- Owen Daniels was solid down the stretch (22-271-2) over the last four games) and the Texans locked him up to a new deal, so barring more health problems, he has a good chance to justify his current TE7 draft position.

Who were the most productive WRs in 2010?

New York Giants Hakeem Nicks runs up the sidelines against the Dallas Cowboys during the first half in Cowboys Stadium October 25, 2010 in Arlington, Texas. UPI/Ian Halperin

Other positions: QB | RB | WR | TE | DT

I've already covered quarterbacks and running backs, now it's time to look at wide receivers on a per game basis. Below is a table of the Top 50 WRs of 2010 in terms of adjusted fantasy points per game, which is calculated by dividing the player’s total points by the number of games he played and then adjusting the result by the average schedule bias for his team. Keep in mind these are points scored in a standard (non-PPR) scoring system. (The PPR table is further down.)


#NamePPGSOS AdjAdj PPG
1Andre Johnson13.1-0.2613.4
2Brandon Lloyd13.1-0.0113.1
3Dwayne Bowe12.9-0.1513.1
4Roddy White12.5-0.6013.1
5Calvin Johnson12.5-0.4813.0
6Hakeem Nicks13.20.3712.8
7Greg Jennings12.40.2012.2
8Mike Wallace11.9-0.3312.2
9Terrell Owens10.9-1.1012.0
10Austin Collie12.50.7911.8
11Kenny Britt11.00.0810.9
12Steve Johnson10.5-0.3110.8
13Miles Austin10.1-0.6510.7
14Percy Harvin9.5-0.8610.4
15Jerome Simpson9.2-1.1010.3
16DeSean Jackson11.31.0110.3
17Reggie Wayne10.70.799.9
18Wes Welker8.5-1.489.9
19Mike Williams (TB)10.20.279.9
20Santonio Holmes9.4-0.289.6
21Deion Branch7.9-1.489.3
22Brandon Marshall8.6-0.659.2
23Jeremy Maclin10.01.019.0
24Mario Manningham9.30.378.9
25Santana Moss9.20.308.9
26Chad Ochocinco7.7-1.108.8
27Malcom Floyd9.81.138.7
28Braylon Edwards8.3-0.288.6
29Marques Colston9.61.118.5
30Dez Bryant7.7-0.658.3
31Johnny Knox7.9-0.408.3
32Larry Fitzgerald9.41.078.3
33Nate Burleson7.6-0.488.1
34Mark Clayton8.60.578.1
35Anquan Boldin7.9-0.118.0
36Derrick Mason7.6-0.117.7
37Vincent Jackson8.81.137.7
38Davone Bess7.0-0.657.6
39Sidney Rice6.7-0.867.5
40Mike Thomas7.3-0.127.5
41Pierre Garcon8.20.797.4
42Dezmon Briscoe7.70.277.4
43Mike Sims-Walker7.0-0.127.1
44Roscoe Parrish6.8-0.317.1
45Hines Ward6.6-0.336.9
46Michael Crabtree6.90.056.8
47Adrian Arrington7.91.116.8
48Anthony Armstrong7.00.306.7
49Lance Moore7.81.116.7
50Lee Evans6.3-0.316.6
51Brian Hartline5.9-0.656.5
52Nate Washington6.50.086.4
53Jordan Shipley5.2-1.106.3
54Michael Jenkins5.7-0.606.3
55Jabar Gaffney6.2-0.016.2
56Roy E. Williams5.5-0.656.2
57Mike Williams6.20.116.1
58Kevin Walter5.8-0.266.0
59James Jones6.10.205.9
60Earl Bennett5.4-0.405.8

A few thoughts:

-- Brandon Lloyd had a great year, but I'm not sure I buy him as a Top 10 WR in 2011, especially if Tim Tebow takes over at QB. He has disappointed before.

-- With the way Dwayne Bowe started the season, it's pretty amazing that he finished WR3 in standard scoring formats. He should have a fine 2011 if he has a good offseason.

-- I landed Mike Wallace in the middle of the third round of a PPR Draftmaster draft, and I think it was a steal. I see no reason why he wouldn't finish in the Top 12 this season, especially with Big Ben playing a full season.

-- Don't sleep on T.O. if he lands in a decent spot. He proved last season he could quickly make an impact on a new team. He is currently going in the 11th round, but that will rise into the 6th or 7th if he finds a good situation.

-- Kenny Britt finished #11 in adjusted PPG despite coming into camp overweight and missing a few games with a hamstring injury. Imagine what he could do if he acted like a professional in the offseason and had an average or better QB throwing to him.

-- Jerome Simpson is a sleeper, but he needs a solid QB to throw to him. Don't draft him too early until that's settled.

-- Mark Clayton and Deion Branch are going in the 10th round. Both players have a good shot at finishing in the Top 30 if they stay healthy.

Here's a look at the top PPR performers:


#NamePPGSOS AdjAdj PPG
1Roddy White19.6-0.7720.4
2Andre Johnson19.7-0.1619.9
3Hakeem Nicks19.20.7818.5
4Calvin Johnson17.6-0.7418.4
5Brandon Lloyd17.9-0.4218.3
6Dwayne Bowe17.4-0.7318.1
7Austin Collie19.01.1517.8
8Reggie Wayne17.70.0117.6
9Terrell Owens16.0-1.0717.1
10Greg Jennings17.20.3216.8
11Wes Welker14.2-2.0916.3
12Mike Wallace15.6-0.5116.1
13Steve Johnson15.6-0.2915.9
14Percy Harvin14.6-1.0615.7
15Brandon Marshall14.7-0.7415.4
16Miles Austin14.4-0.5915.0
17Santana Moss15.00.4514.5
18Kenny Britt14.50.0114.4
19Jerome Simpson13.2-1.0714.3
20Larry Fitzgerald15.00.8414.1
21Deion Branch11.9-2.0914.0
22Santonio Holmes13.7-0.2714.0
23Marques Colston15.21.6613.6
24Mike Williams (TB)14.20.6613.6
25Chad Ochocinco12.4-1.0713.5
26Adrian Arrington14.91.6613.2
27DeSean Jackson14.61.6713.0
28Mark Clayton13.20.4912.8
29Jeremy Maclin14.41.6712.7
30Davone Bess11.9-0.7412.7
31Steve Smith (NYG)13.20.7812.4
32Nate Burleson11.5-0.7412.3
33Mario Manningham13.00.7812.3
34Dez Bryant11.4-0.5912.0
35Malcom Floyd13.21.1612.0
36Braylon Edwards11.6-0.2711.9
37Anquan Boldin11.9-0.0111.9
38Pierre Garcon13.01.1511.8
39Johnny Knox11.1-0.7711.8
40Mike Thomas11.5-0.1511.6
41Derrick Mason11.5-0.0111.5
42Roscoe Parrish10.9-0.2911.2
43Mike Williams10.9-0.0810.9
44Hines Ward10.3-0.5110.8
45Danny Amendola11.30.4910.8
46Jabar Gaffney10.3-0.4210.7
47Michael Crabtree10.3-0.3710.7
48Sidney Rice9.5-1.0610.6
49Vincent Jackson11.61.1610.5
50Mike Sims-Walker10.1-0.1510.2
51Lance Moore11.91.6610.2
52Michael Jenkins9.4-0.7710.2
53Brian Hartline9.4-0.7410.2
54Dezmon Briscoe10.70.6610.0
55Jordan Shipley8.7-1.079.7
56Eddie Royal9.1-0.429.5
57Anthony Armstrong9.90.459.5
58Lee Evans9.1-0.299.4
59Earl Bennett8.6-0.779.4
60Taylor Price7.1-2.099.2

-- Hakeem Nicks is a Top 5 WR if he can stay healthy. His gain is Steve Smith 2.0's loss.

-- Austin Collie was highly productive when he was healthy, but he only managed to play nine games and seems to take a lot of hits with those crossing and seam routes. He's currently going in the 5th round, but he's obviously a high risk guy.

-- I like Stevie Johnson, and his value will be high assuming Ryan Fitzpatrick is back. If they make a change, any change, at QB, it will probably hurt Johnson's stock. Fitzy is pretty good, and they're going to have a tough time upgrading given the current crop of FA and rookie QBs available.

-- Brandon Marshall ranks seven spots higher in PPR formats than in standard formats.

-- Jeremy Maclin is weighted down by his weird one-target Week 17 game against the Cowboys. Without that, he would have been WR23 on this list, given his favorable schedule.

-- Mike Thomas is likely to see a boost in targets with Mike Sims-Walker's departure. He seems to be a PPR guy, but he's ranked #40 on both lists. He is currently WR40 in average drafts, which seems about 8-10 spots too low.

Once the NFL (hopefully) agrees to a new CBA and finalizes the schedule, I can release the projected strength of schedule (SOS) for 2011. That will allow us to further refine this list.

Watch Tom Brady dance at Carnival in Brazil [video]

Check out Brady's dance moves as he attends Carnival in Rio de Janero.