John Paulsen
Sports Channel / Bullz-Eye Home
What are these guys worth? Part 1 and Part 2 (07/08/2008)
The NBA is in the midst of its free agency period, so players and teams are busy haggling over cash. John calculates the value of all the league's restricted free agents from the draft class of 2004. He also examines the 2005 draft class, as those players can sign extensions this summer.
2008 NBA free agency primer (06/30/2008)
The NBA’s free agency period starts on Tuesday and John Paulsen gets you ready with a Free Agency Primer, which lists the best available
restricted and unrestricted free agents, ranked by total value. No-brainers like Gilbert Arenas and Josh Smith are there, but who else made the list?
The NBA's 11 Biggest Draft Day Blunders (06/23/2008)
Everyone knows that the Portland Trailblazers screwed up in 1984 when they passed on Michael Jordan to draft Sam Bowie, but what are some
other big draft day mistakes? John Paulsen lists his Top 11 Draft Day Blunders, which include some obvious missteps as well as a few surprises.
Second to None: The Best Second Round Picks in the NBA's Modern Era (06/17/2008)
Think you can fall asleep once the first round of the NBA Draft is over? Think again. Every year, a pick or two from the second round turns into a quality player. John lists the top 10 second-round picks, which include big names like Michael Redd and Dennis Rodman. But who's #1?
The NBA Finals, Game 2: Don't call it a comeback (06/10/2008)
Did you think it was safe to turn off Game 2 of the Finals when the Celtics led by 24 points in the middle of the fourth quarter? Oops. Even though it fell short, John believes the Lakers' comeback should be appreciated before looking ahead at the rest of the series.
NBA Finals Preview: Why Kobe and Co. need to lose (but probably won't) (06/03/2008)
This year's NBA Finals matchup is steeped in history. The Lakers and Celtics will battle for the title for the 11th time, dating all the way back to 1959 and the days of Bill Russell and Jerry West. John explains why he's rooting for the Celtics but knows it's likely Kobe's ring to lose.
Ranking the top-30 small forwards by total value (05/27/2008)
In this, the third installment of his "total value" rankings, John tackles the small forward position by considering the four major factors that make up a player's value: talent, age, potential and contract. LeBron James is a no-brainer at #1, but who is #2?
Ranking the top-30 shooting guards by total value (05/20/2008)
In the second of five installments, John ranks the top 30 shooting guards in the NBA based on four criteria: talent, age, potential and affordability. Think Kobe is #1? You're right, but there's a certain Argentinean nipping at his heels.
The Cavs have failed LeBron (05/20/2008)
John outlines all the bad moves the Cleveland Cavaliers have made since they drafted
LeBron, including the Carlos Boozer fiasco and the ill-advised Larry Hughes signing.
Ranking the top-30 point guards by total value (05/13/2008)
There are four major factors that make up a player's total value: talent, cost, age and potential. John considers all four as he ranks the top 30 point guards in the NBA, a list that includes no-brainers like Chris Paul and Deron Williams, along with a few surprises.
Where do the Suns, Mavs and Nuggets go from here? (05/06/2008)
The season came to an abrupt end for the Suns, Mavs and Nuggets when they were knocked out in the first round of the playoffs. John looks at the offseason and suggests some good (and bad) roster moves as these teams try to go from a bunch of also-rans into legitimate title contenders.
Fantasy eye on the NFL Draft (04/29/2008)
A good fantasy season starts in the offseason, and a savvy owner should pay attention to the draft. John identifies a few rookies who have the talent and opportunity to shine this season while also discussing which positions to target rookies and which to avoid on draft day.
NBA Playoff Preview (04/18/2008)
Goodbye regular season, hello playoffs! It’s the best time of the year for NBA fans, and John checks in with his playoff preview. Suns or Spurs? Hornets or Mavs? Wizards or Cavs? From the brutal West to the top-heavy East, John breaks down each first round series and makes his picks.
2007-08 NBA Year-End Awards (04/15/2008)
With the NBA regular season winding down, it's time for John to hand out his own prestigous year-end awards. Durant or Horford for ROY? Kobe or CP3 for MVP? Or will a darkhorse like LeBron or KG buck the odds and take home the trophy? John makes his predictions.
The effect of free agency (04/08/2008)
Think that just because it's April you can forget about fantasy football? Think again. John discusses four big free agent signings that will affect your draft, including Michael Turner and Javon Walker, along with a few minor moves that could make or break your fantasy season.
Well, three out of four ain’t bad... (04/01/2008)
If you've ever heard Jim Nantz and Billy Packer try to fill dead air, you know why John is hoping this weekend's Final Four games are close. With three of his Final Four picks still alive, John takes a closer look at the matchups while also chiming in on Tyler Hansbrough's NBA future.
48 teams down, the Sweet 16 remain (03/25/2008)
Last week, John used a series of trend stats to help him fill out his March Madness bracket. Now, with the first two rounds of the tournament in the books, John checks in on his results while also taking a closer look at the Sweet 16 matchups for those readers in "second chance" brackets.
A (sort of) scientific way to fill out your March Madness bracket (03/18/2008)
Looking for a little guidance while filling out your bracket? John offers up a series of trend stats, including Sagarin ratings and points-per-shot, that should help you with all of the tough decisions. Now all you need to do is come up with your excuse for missing work Thursday and Friday.
A diehard's take on Brett Favre's retirement (03/07/2008)
Looking for an unbiased take on Brett Favre's retirement? Look elsewhere. John, a Packer diehard, provides his decidedly biased and subjective thoughts on the retirement of his favorite player, including what #4 meant to the franchise and the odd timing of his decision.
Biggest bang for the buck (03/04/2008)
Everyone loves a good deal and the NBA is no different. John Paulsen identifies the league's best bargains, including Jamario Moon and Monta Ellis. But good deals can be had on higher-priced players as well, which means GMs need to spend wisely at all salary levels to produce a winner.
The recalibrated NBA playoff picture (02/26/2008)
After a flurry of deals that led up to the NBA's Feb. 21 trade deadline, it's a good time to take a deep breath and reexamine the playoff contenders and pretenders. With the deck reshuffled, John discusses what the top 10 teams have to do to win a ring this postseason.
The All-Underutilized Team, and random thoughts from the All-Star Game (02/19/2008)
The superstars were all on display Sunday night at the NBA All Star Game, but John wants to talk about those players who just don't get enough love. His All-Underutilized Team is filled with guys like Jordan Farmar and Hakim Warrick who put up good numbers in limited minutes.
Expiring contracts: Who's got 'em? (02/12/2008)
When the Grizzlies gave away Pau Gasol for Kwame Brown’s expiring contract, it proved just how valuable salary cap flexibility can be in the NBA. John identifies several players with expiring contracts that could be moved before the trade deadline, perhaps for another Memphis player.
Breakdown of the Gasol trade, the Lakers’ next move and Kidd trade ideas (02/05/2008)
The Lakers made a terrific deal in acquiring Pau Gasol, but they shouldn't stop there. John looks at their revamped roster and suggests the Lakers move Lamar Odom for a better fit at small forward. He also discusses several deals that could entice the Nets to part ways with Jason Kidd.
Who is the best (and the worst) shooter in the NBA? (01/29/2008)
Who is the best shooter in the NBA? John says that's a loaded question, but if you're asking who the most efficient shooter is, he looks to the Points Per Shot stat for an answer and finds several of the usual suspects leading the way. PPS also tells us who the league's worst shooters are.
Can the Lakers weather the coming storm? (01/22/2008)
Kobe's team is off to a great start, but the loss of Andrew Bynum and a grueling upcoming schedule will be a tough test for the Lakers. If they're going to weather the storm, John says the young team needs Kwame Brown to ignore the boo birds and step up his game in Bynum's absence.
Nods and snubs: Who should go to the 2008 NBA All-Star Game? (01/15/2008)
The Celtics own the NBA's best record and are lapping everyone else in the East, but will their success translate into All-Star votes for Boston's Big Three? John reveals his All-Star picks, which include no-brainers like LeBron James and Kobe Bryant, along with a few surprising selections.
Defensive Team By Committee: A closer look (01/08/2008)
Would you have rather had Tony Romo or the Ravens defense on your fantasy team this year? Many owners chose the latter when they drafted the Ravens as early as the sixth round in August. John has some advice for those owners: next season, try the Defensive Team By Committee approach.
Decisions, Decisions: The top 50 keeper league players (01/01/2008)
With the 2007 fantasy football season behind us, keeper leaguers should be looking ahead to 2008. While John says LaDainian Tomlinson is still the best bet in football, plenty of fresh faces litter his list of the top 50 keeper league players, including Adrian Peterson and Braylon Edwards.
Top 10 reasons why it's okay for fantasy football season to be over (12/28/2007)
It's a day you've been dreading for months: the end of fantasy football season. But John says there are plenty of reasons why it's actually good news. For starters, you can stop hating Shaun Alexander and Marvin Harrison for ruining your season. Plus, March Madness is right around the corner.
How does Brett Favre stack up? (12/21/2007)
Brett Favre is setting records left and right these days, but since he's played more games than any quarterback in NFL history, how do his per-game numbers stack up to other greats like Dan Marino and Joe Montana? John breaks down the stats in search of an answer.
Early season surprises (12/14/2007)
John says there are plenty of surprises from the young NBA season, some good, some bad and some just plain ugly. The talk of the league has been the Celtics' hot start but don't overlook the leap Dwight Howard and the Magic have taken. And in Miami, Shaq and D-Wade have seen better days.
One month in: efficiency per minute leaders (12/07/2007)
What's the best way to gauge an NBA player's productivity? John prefers the Efficiency Per Minute stat, which basically subtracts all the bad things a player does from all the good things he does. One month into the season, John checks out the EPM leaders at all five positions.
Seven players to watch down the stretch (11/30/2007)
Sure, Kurt Warner and Jamal Lewis haven't exaclty set the world on fire this year but John urges fantasy owners to look a little closer. With a cupcake schedule ahead of them, Warner and Lewis are just two players who should exceed their current rate of production down the stretch.
The hypocritical NFL (11/23/2007)
The NFL thinks some cable companies are cheating their viewers by refusing to carry the NFL Network. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black, John says, pointing out that the NFL has no problem limiting fan access by providing NFL Sunday Ticket only to DirecTV subscribers.
The hindsight draft (11/16/2007)
With the fantasy football season hitting its stretch run, John decided to look back this week at what could have been by conducting his own Hindsight Draft. How did his hypothetical team turn out? Would you like Tony Romo, Clinton Portis, Randy Moss and Braylon Edwards on your team right now?
Kobe trade talk (11/09/2007)
It's fun to speculate, and let's face it: at this point, all Kobe Bryant trade talk is pure speculation. John checks in with his own thoughts on potential Kobe trade scenarios, including hypothetical deals involving Shawn Marion, Tracy McGrady, Michael Redd and Gilbert Arenas.
Five rookies to watch and a longshot blockbuster (11/02/2007)
Greg Oden may be out for the year but John says there are plenty of NBA rookies who should make a splash this season, led by Seattle's Kevin Durant and Atlanta's Al Horford. Speaking of making a splash, John says the Lakers should consider dealing Kobe Bryant to a division foe.
The All Waiver-Wire Team (10/26/2007)
Draft day is the most important day of the fantasy football season, but ask owners who snagged Tony Romo last season how important it is to scan the waiver wire each week. John's All Waiver-Wire Team honors players who have risen from draft-day trash to free-agent treasure.
The Hype Machine II: Electric Boogaloo (10/19/2007)
Before the season started, John highlighted 10 players who were getting an awful lot of love in fantasy football drafts. Six weeks into the season, John notes that, while Tony Romo has exceeded expectations, most of those hyped players have fallen flat, like Laurence Maroney.
Fantasy hoops: 10 sleepers to target (10/12/2007)
Fantasy basketball may not be as popular as fantasy football or baseball, but John knows its fan base is growing by the season. With that in mind and draft season looming, he targets two sleepers at each position, including Andrew Bogut, David Lee and rookie Mike Conley.
Saints' woes historically offensive (10/05/2007)
The Saints have stopped marching. In fact, the Saints have been downright awful this year, sporting an 0-3 record months after nearly reaching the Super Bowl. John takes a close look at the numbers and discovers that the Saints could be on the verge of some very bad history.
10 hazy thoughts about week 3 and beyond (09/28/2007)
Thanks to a bout of food poisoning, John's week 3 recollections are a bit hazy. But he was able to glean a few useful tidbits for fantasy owners, including Ronnie Brown's return to a feature role, Marion Barber's arrival in Studsville and Tom Brady's heist of Peyton's QB crown.
Is it time to bench (or trade) these disappointing players? (09/21/2007)
If you drafted Steven Jackson or Lee Evans this year, you're probably cursing their names after two weeks. Of course, the question now is, will they rebound or will they continue to falter? John lists fantasy's 25 most disappointing players and discusses whether owners should hold or cut bait.
Sunday Ticket, RBBCs and a few random thoughts (09/14/2007)
After one week of action, some running back situations have cleared up and some have gotten murkier. John says it looks like a healthy Clinton Portis and rookie Marshawn Lynch could be bargains for fantasy owners this season.
The Hype Machine: Ten players to watch (09/05/2007)
"Hype," a noun meaning promotional publicity of an extravagant or contrived kind. Sound familiar? John says fantasy football owners have to deal with hyped players every draft season. His Hype Machine lists 10 players to watch and, more important, what to do about them on draft day.
Seven draft day trends (08/29/2007)
Are you targeting T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the third round of your fantasy draft? John says you might be out of luck. With questions surrounding receivers like Roy Williams and Larry Fitzgerald, Housh's rising draft position is just one of John's seven draft day trends to note.
Top 10 keeper league targets (08/22/2007)
Keeper league owners who targeted guys like Joseph Addai and Cedric Benson last season are reaping the rewards this year. What players should keeper leaguers try to nab this year with an eye toward 2008? John's list of 10 keeper targets includes Calvin Johnson, Vernon Davis and LT's backup.
The Value Draft (08/15/2007)
There are many keys to a successful fantasy football draft, but you're unlikely to be a true title contender if you don't uncover some value picks throughout the draft. John's Value Draft pinpoints a likely value selection in rounds 1-11 and yields a lineup that includes Steve Smith and Thomas Jones.
East vs. West: Has the power shifted in the NBA? (08/08/2007)
Kevin Garnett, Rashard Lewis, Ray Allen and Zach Randolph are all in the Eastern Conference now, which has many NBA fans wondering: Has the balance of power shifted from West to East? John says things have definitely evened out a bit for next season, but what about the long-term outlook?
The Yi Jianlian debacle: There’s plenty of blame to go around (08/01/2007)
What happens when you draft a player who doesn't want to play for your team? Ask Bucks GM Larry Harris, who finds himself engaged in a standoff with draft pick Yi Jianlian, the Chinese import who apparently wants nothing to do with Milwaukee. John says both team and player are at fault here.
Free agency report card (07/26/2007)
With eight of the 10 players he highlighted in his free agency preview already inked to new deals, John hands out his free agency report card. What grade did John give the Magic for signing Rashard Lewis? Did the Nets make the right call by resigning Vince Carter?
NBA draft impressions (07/03/2007)
Last week's NBA Draft didn't provide many early surprises, but John, a Bucks fan, was as surprised as anyone to see Milwaukee tab Yi Jianlian at #6. It's just one of the notes John offers up in his Draft Impressions, along with his thoughts on the Ray Allen and Jason Richardson trades.
NBA free agency preview (06/27/2007)
Can the Bobcats convince a marquee free agent to sign on the dotted line? Are Chauncey Billups' days in Detroit numbered? Will someone make mop-topped Anderson Varejao an offer the Cavs won't match? John takes a closer look.
Greg Oden or Kevin Durant? (06/20/2007)
So who's it going to be: Greg Oden or Kevin Durant? With the NBA Draft approaching, John pits the Ohio State center against the Texas swingman to figure out who the Portland Trailblazers should select #1 overall. So who came out on top? Well, it wasn't an easy choice.
Six ways to improve the NBA (06/13/2007)
Most agree that the NFL has surpassed baseball as "America's Pastime," but where does that leave the NBA? John says there are ways to improve the game and make it more accessible to the fans, starting with a shortened season and the elimination of guaranteed contracts.
NBA Mock Draft (06/08/2007)
May 22 was a great day for the Trailblazers and Sonics, not so much for the Celtics. Portland and Seattle netted the top two spots in the NBA Draft Lottery and the right to select either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. How will the rest of the draft's top 15 picks go? John's NBA Mock Draft looks for answers.
Believe it or not, I'm siding with Kobe (06/01/2007)
So Kobe wants to be traded. Actually, check that, Kobe has hope that the Lakers will right the ship and now he doesn't want to be traded. What the heck is going on in LA? John looks at the Kobe trade mess and wonders if anybody even has enough to make the Lakers deal their superstar.
Is Deron Williams better than Chris Paul? (05/30/2007)
The Utah Jazz took a lot of heat for drafting Deron Williams over Chris Paul in 2005, especially when Paul ran away with the ROY award while Williams spent half the year on the bench. But now that Williams has the Jazz in the conference finals, John says the doubters have been silenced.
San Antonio Spurs = NBA Villains? (05/23/2007)
The Spurs have long been thought of as the classiest of NBA franchises, but that may no longer be the case. Between Bruce Bowen's increasingly dirty play, Tim Duncan's "What, me?!" foul face, and the simple fact that people are tired of seeing them win, John says the Spurs have become NBA villains.
Fantasy football: Impact rookies (05/16/2007)
Should any rookie running backs be on your fantasy radar this year? John says Marshawn Lynch has the best chance of being this year's Joseph Addai, but what about Adrian Peterson? Will Calvin Johnson make an impact in his rookie season? Hey, it's never too early for fantasy football!
Which forwards and centers had the best statistical seasons? (05/09/2007)
Who were the NBA's best players at each position this year? There's certainly room for debate but John looks to the stats for an answer. Last week he ranked out the point guards and shooting guards, and this week he looks at the league's small forwards, power forwards and centers.
Which guards had the best statistical seasons? (05/02/2007)
Fans love to argue about who's the NBA's best point guard or power forward, but is there a definitive way to answer those questions? Maybe not, but John is going to try. His statistical look at point guards and shooting guards this week reveals some expected names and a few surprises.
2006-07 Year End NBA Awards (04/24/2007)
Does Steve Nash deserve to join the ranks of Larry Bird, Magic Johnson and Moses Malone as a three-time MVP? John breaks down the race for the NBA's Most Valuable Player award while also handicapping the league's other year-end awards like Rookie of the Year and Most Improved.
Who's the best at getting to the line? (04/18/2007)
Announcers love to say that players like Dwyane Wade are great at getting to the free throw line, but what does that really mean? John ranks the top five players at each position by Free Throw Factor, which looks at FTA per minute and per FG attempt, to find out who's the best at getting to the stripe.
Gone gators (most of them, anyway) (04/11/2007)
So Billy Donovan's returning to Florida after turning Kentucky down. What about the rest of the Gators? They're as good as gone, writes John Paulsen, who says Al Horford and Corey Brewer improved their draft stock by coming back for their junior year, but Joakim Noah's stock slipped last season.
To tank or not to tank? (04/04/2007)
At this point of the NBA season, some teams are eyeing the playoffs while others are eyeing the lottery. Are teams like the Grizzlies and Celtics purposely losing games to improve their chances of landing Greg Oden or Kevin Durant? Does tanking even work? John takes a look.
The All-Underutilized Team (03/28/2007)
With the NBA regular season winding down, John thought it was a good time to take a look at those players that just don’t get enough love, the guys who produce quality numbers in limited roles. PG Jose Calderon and C Andrew Bynum head John's NBA All-Underutilized Team.
48 down, 15 to go (03/21/2007)
March Madness hasn't been all that mad to this point, but John hopes that changes as we move on to this week's Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight matchups. John also wonders if anyone actually enjoys listening to Billy Packer while also pondering fab freshman Kevin Durant's future.
Five tips to bracket domination (03/13/2007)
Tired of getting punked in your brackets each March? While John's five tips won't guarantee you'll win it all this year, they should help ensure you don't get beat by your buddy's girlfriend who picked Kansas to go all the way because she thinks their mascot is cute.
Who's the worst GM in the NBA? (03/07/2007)
Ask someone who the worst GM in the NBA is, and they'll probably say, "You mean, besides Isiah Thomas?" True, Zeke has been brutal, but do the numbers say he's the worst? John puts Thomas and four other GM's under the microscope to find out who takes the crown.
All's quiet on the trade front (02/28/2007)
Jason Kidd to the Lakers? Mike Bibby to the Cavs? Kevin Garnett to the Bulls? Nope. Last week's trade deadline came and went without a single big name changing teams. John looks at why some of the league's superstars stayed put and what may happen this offseason.
Your crime is time: 18 and going pro (02/21/2007)
If not for the NBA's new age limit, Greg Oden and Kevin Durant may have bypassed college ball for the pros. NBA commish David Stern says the rule will have a positive effect on the league, but after crunching some numbers, John says high schoolers have historically fared very well.
Out with the new, in with the old (02/14/2007)
Shaquille O'Neal hated it. So did Dirk Nowitzki and countless others. When NBA commish David Stern decided to switch to a synthetic ball without first consulting the league's players, the backlash was swift and loud. So how has the league fared since Stern switched back?
Did Favre make the right call? (02/07/2007)
Brett Favre sounded like a man headed for retirement following Green Bay's season-ending victory over the Chicago Bears, but last week the Canton-bound QB announced he'd return for his 17th season. What was his motivation and was it the right choice? John looks for answers.
Colts/Bears? It could've been a lot worse... (01/31/2007)
It wasn't the Super Bowl XLI matchup he was hoping for, but John says he'd rather watch Peyton Manning and the Colts take on the Bears than sit through another Tom Brady and Bill Belichick love-fest.
A playoff system makes too much sense (01/07/2007)
At this point, the arguments against a playoff system in college football just don't hold much water. In fact, John contends that a four-team playoff would only heighten the sport's popularity and appeal.