John Paulsen columns

I love sports, but that doesn't mean they're perfect. Here are ten things that drive me crazy on a regular basis, in order of increasing stupidity:

10. The scoring system in tennis
Love? 15? 30? 40? Deuce? Actually, I kind of like "deuce." But why not just go to four, win by two. It's the exact same thing and a lot easier to follow when you've already thrown back a couple of Bloody Marys.

9. The overkill of NASCAR
Does it really take 500 laps to figure out which car and driver are the fastest? Here's an idea: Make every race 50 to 100 laps and limit the number of pit stops. Every decision will be magnified and second-guessed and strategy will become an even bigger part of the sport.

8. Offsides (in soccer and hockey)
Anytime that you have defenders trying to encourage offsides calls by pulling up as they run/skate back to protect their goal, it's not a good thing. There's no offsides in basketball and it works just fine. When Randy Moss outruns a cornerback, play doesn't stop because he has a clear path to the endzone. Why not reward anticipation and speed, and make soccer and hockey that much more exciting by creating a flurry of one-on-one situations between the striker/forward and the goalie?

7. The Pro Bowl
Why? What's the point? For years, the Pro Bowl was played in Hawaii after the Super Bowl, which is like going to a concert where the headliner plays before the supporting act. To its credit, the NFL finally realized it had a wet turd on its hands and moved the game to Miami to take place before the Super Bowl. This should help, but football is a violent sport, so why play the game at all? Guys don't want to get hurt, so they're only going to go half speed. Plus, with all the guys scratching due to injury and the players that won't play because their team made the big game, the rosters aren't nearly as good as they could be. Just forget it -- hand out All-NFL awards and be done with it.

6. The NBA age limit
I was once a proponent of an age limit, but not anymore. It's not that the NBA doesn't have every right to restrict who can and cannot join the league -- they do -- but the age limit (19) is wreaking havoc on college basketball. Many of the top freshmen that would have otherwise gone straight to the NBA are making a mockery of the term "student athlete." They know they only have to stay eligible for one season, so they only really have to attend class for the fall semester. Coaches are burning hundreds of man hours trying to recruit players that they know are only going to play for one season before bolting for the NBA. Players that went straight from high school to the NBA have a higher success rate than any other sub-group, so why not let them in? The NBA wants to improve the quality of its product, and that's commendable, but this is not the way to do it. Maybe they should expand roster sizes to 18 or 20 to allow rookies to develop in practice. I think that if a player is draft-worthy when he graduates high school, then he should be able to enter the NBA. If a player isn't draft-worthy and goes to college, he should be required to stay for a minimum of two years. This format would allow surefire stars to enter the NBA immediately, and would increase the continuity of the college game while at the same time giving borderline NBA prospects an opportunity to develop in the collegiate ranks.

5. The seven-game series
I get it. Professional sports is a business and leagues like the NBA and NHL need to squeeze as much money out of their playoff systems as possible. (The seven-game series makes sense in baseball; teams need to be able to take advantage of a strong pitching rotation.) But playoff series in the NBA and NHL don't truly get exciting until a team is facing elimination, which is why the single-elimination format is by far the most exciting. (March Madness and the NFL playoffs are two great examples.) While single-elimination is too much to ask for, how about a three- or five-game series? The fewer the games, the more that each game will mean. This creates drama and interest (and, ahem, ratings). There is still the opportunity for the much-ballyhooed "chess match," but there will be a better chance that an underdog could pull the upset. I know this isn't going to happen, but a guy can dream, can't he?

4. Exclusive rights to Sunday Ticket
I live in a condo with no view of the southern horizon, so every Sunday, I have to pack up my laptop and head over to my buddy LaRusso's house to watch Sunday Ticket on his DirecTV. Don't get me wrong -- I like hanging out with my friends, but this Sunday ritual is a pain in my ass. And it's not a technology problem -- it's all about money for the NFL. They realize that Sunday Ticket is a valuable product, and they know that the package is the lifeblood of DirecTV. But enough is enough. DirecTV now has 18 million subscribers, so it's time to offer Sunday Ticket to cable subscribers as well. I have no problem with the NFL's desire to make a profit, but it's not wise (or fair) to leave a good portion of your fan base out in the cold. Most of what the league garners in exclusive rights fees would be covered by a huge increase in its subscriber base. Enough.

3. Seasons that are just too long (MLB, NBA, NHL)
People say the NBA regular season doesn't matter, and for the most part, they're right. The NBA's postseason is so inclusive that sub-.500 teams regularly make the playoffs, so the regular season becomes a grind because the good teams know that they're going to make the postseason come hell or high water. Baseball has a less inclusive postseason, but a 162-game season makes each individual game fairly meaningless. Who wants to go to a game when it doesn't really matter who wins? Of all the leagues, the NHL has the least to lose. They should toss out their current format, cut the regular season in half and drop the number of teams that make the postseason from 16 to eight or 12. Suddenly, every regular season game would be crucial to a team's playoff hopes.

2. No salary cap in baseball
The top four payrolls in MLB -- Yankees, Mets, Cubs and Red Sox -- combine to spend more than the bottom ten. The Yankees alone outspend the Marlins, Padres, Pirates and Nationals combined. The Yankees' payroll is 5.5 times the lowest payroll in the league (the Marlins). How can there be a level playing field when certain teams can afford to spend three or four or even five times as much as the competition? Sure, a small market team with savvy management can make a run every so often, but they can't afford to keep their stars because the big market teams can simply outspend them. Forget ridiculous -- this is ridonkulous. Yeah, I said it.

1. The BCS
The BCS is like a bad marriage. It seemed like a good idea at the time, but somewhere along the line, you realize that it's an awful mess. You don't know when it's going to end, or how, but you know that one day it will be over. And that will be a fine, fine day. We ran a poll a while back and 90% of fans want to see some sort of playoff system in college football. The current system is so asinine and flawed that there's no point in rehashing all that is wrong with it. I'm a proponent of an eight-team playoff where the six BCS conference champs get an automatic bid (unless they are ranked outside of the top 15). The first round of the playoffs would be held at the home stadiums of the higher seeds and the two semifinal games and title game can be rotated amongst the four BCS cities -- Pasadena, Miami, New Orleans and Phoenix -- so that they don't lose any revenue under a new system. Television ratings for the non-title games would go through the roof. That would be like true love -- everybody wins.

Those are my top 10...what is it about sports that drives you crazy?

All right, a show of hands...how many of you thought that Santonio Holmes was going to start of the 2009 season with a 9-131-1 statline against the Tennessee Titans last night?

Be honest.

Holmes finished 2008 (his third season) as fantasy's WR33, averaging 3.7 catches for 55 yards and 0.3 TD in 15 games. His ADP entering the season was in the 5th round, largely because of the numbers he produced in the playoffs. After a mediocre 2-25-0 start against the Chargers, he posted 2-70-1 against the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game and 9-131-1 against the Cardinals in the Super Bowl. (You're reading that right -- Holmes had the exact same line in the Super Bowl as he did last night against the Titans.)

Heading into the season, I thought Holmes was a nice value in the 6th round, or a decent pick in the 5th if I had to go WR and the other guys -- Eddie Royal, Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, Anthony Gonzalez and Braylon Edwards -- were already gone. Holmes just seemed overrated after winning the Super Bowl MVP. After all, this is a guy who finished no better than WR29 in PPR leagues in the last two seasons, and converted just 48% of his targets into catches in 2008. (The league average last season was 57.5%.)

Holmes' production seems to be at least partly dependent on how well the Steelers are running the ball. Over the past two-plus seasons (and including last night's game), Holmes has posted 70-plus receiving yards in 13 games. In those games, the Steelers ran the ball well (4.0 ypc or greater) just three times: versus the Bengals and Rams in 2007 and again against the Bengals in 2008.

Intuitively, this makes sense. The Steelers have always wanted to be a running team, and generally don't cut the passing game loose unless they're having real problems on the ground. In the 17 games over the past two-plus seasons where the Steelers have averaged fewer than 4.0 ypc, Holmes has averaged 4.3 receptions for 74 yards and 0.8 TD, which equates to 16.6 fantasy points per game. Last season, eight WRs -- Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, Antonio Bryant and Steve Smith -- had higher averages.

What does this all mean? Well, when the Steelers have trouble running (i.e. they are unable to rush for 4.0 ypc or more), then Santonio Holmes is a top 10 receiver. This happened in 17 of the Steelers' last 34 games, and 12 of those 17 games were in 2008 or 2009, so as the Steelers continue to have bigger and bigger problems running the ball, Holmes's average production should continue to rise.

It's worth noting that in games where the Steelers rushed for 4.0 ypc or more, Holmes averaged 3.7 receptions for 57 yards and 0.2 TD (or 10.5 fantasy points). These are WR30-WR35 numbers.

So if it looks like the Steelers are going to have a tough time running the ball, Holmes should be in all fantasy lineups. How will we know? The opposing defense's rank in average rushing yards allowed is a pretty good gauge. Against top 10 teams (and assuming Tennessee finishes this season in the top 10), Holmes has averaged 3.9 catches for 72 yards and 1.0 TD, or 17.1 fantasy points. Against teams ranked 11-20, he averaged 4.0 catches for 68 yards and 0.3 TD (12.8 fantasy points) -- still startable in PPR leagues, but not a must-start. Against teams ranked 21-32 against the run, he averaged 4.1 receptions for 59 yards and 0.2 TD (11.4 fantasy points). In other words, he was a borderline starter at best.

If Anthony Stalter is right and the Steelers are going to have a tough time rushing the ball this year, then Holmes should be in for a big year. But if the Steelers are playing a team that can't stop the ground game, then fantasy owners might want to bench Holmes if they have an attractive option.

And if Holmes starts producing consistently against teams that can't stop the Steelers from rushing the ball, then we'll know that he's turning the corner and is becoming an elite fantasy WR. If that happens, he'll be a must-start.

DirecTV subscribers may be wondering if the NFL Network's new channel, "NFL RedZone" is the same as the RedZone Channel that is available as part of the Sunday Ticket package. The answer is yes...and no. It's not the exact same channel. It has a different host and a different studio, but the concept is the same.

The channel will bounce around from game to game to show live action or instant highlights from a multitude of games. I've watched the DirecTV version for six hours straight, and it's a great way for fantasy football enthusiasts to spend a Sunday. I assume that the NFL Network's version will be just as good.

I have long been critical of the NFL's decision to make the Sunday TIcket exclusive to DirecTV, largely because I'm a diehard Packer fan living in a California condo with no view of the southern horizon (making me one of the millions of football fans that simply can't get DirecTV without moving). The DirecTV monopoly exclusive rights extend through 2014, though the package may be available to non-DirecTV subscribers in 2012. I mention the Sunday Ticket debacle because this NFL Network Red Zone channel is a step in the right direction.

Of course, the NFL Network is still at odds with several cable companies -- including my carrier, Time Warner -- as they haggle over carriage fees for the channel. Actually, "haggle" would imply that the two sides are negotiating. As far as I know, they've both walked away from the table.

The cable giant wants to offer NFL Network on a sports tier, while the NFL Network wants the channel to be on the basic tier, which due to its high carriage cost, would have a significant impact on the bottom line and increase cable rates for all subscribers. Essentially, the Network wants every subscriber to pay for the channel even if they don't want it in their lineup.

It was one thing for Time Warner to walk away from negotiations when the NFL Network only carried eight games in a season, but now that TWC's subscribers will be missing out on this new Red Zone channel, I'd expect the pressure to strike a deal will be amped up. I, for one, am not pleased that this product is readily available and the 2nd-largest cable company in the country does not offer it. What's the point of having a monopoly if you aren't going to use your negotiating power to get what you want?

Between the offering of exclusive rights to Sunday Ticket and the high carriage fees of the NFL Network (and presumably, the new RedZone channel), the NFL is not treating a subsection of its fan base very well.

We just want to watch the games -- all of them. Why is the league making it so difficult for fans to consume its product?

Yesterday, I posted my DTBWW picks for Week 1 and thought I'd spend a little more time discussing the subject. I've used DTBWW quite a bit in the past, and it's not always by design. Sometimes a defense that I'm counting on doesn't perform up to snuff, so I need to look elsewhere for production. The idea is that every week, there is usually one or two mediocre or solid defenses on your league's waiver wire that have a favorable matchup. A mediocre defense with a great matchup is just as good as having a great defense with a medicore matchup.

Last season, my top weekly DTBWW pick averaged 9.8 points per week, which over the course of the season equates to DT2 or DT3 numbers. My second pick averaged 6.1 points, which obviously isn't as good, but still solid. The top two picks averaged 7.9 points, or DT6-type numbers. (If you're wondering what scoring system I'm using, it's the Antsports High Performance scoring system that awards one point per sack, fumble and interception, two points per safety and six points per defensive/special teams touchdown.)

The best way to pick a DTBWW candidate is to look for medicore/solid defenses that are facing bad offenses that allow a lot of sacks. Total sacks is the most consistent defensive scoring category week-to-week and it's also a good indicator of quarterback pressure, which can lead to turnovers and touchdowns. It also helps to pick defenses that are playing at home, as most DTs play better at home than they do on the road.

One great thing about DTBWW is that it's very fluid and flexible. If a particular defense is playing really well or if a particular offense is really struggling to protect the QB, it's easy to utilize those teams with this approach. But most owners like a game plan, so to that end, I have put together a loose DTBWW schedule for the 2009-10 season.

To do so, I picked five teams that consistently struggle to protect the quarterback: the 49ers, Lions, Bengals, Rams and Raiders. Last season, defenses ranked outside of the top 12 scored an average of 8.6 points per game against these five teams, who were all in the top 10 in total sacks allowed. That production equates to 146 points over the course of a 17-game season, which would translate to DT5-type production.

The following table shows the 2009-10 schedule for these five teams.

Remember, we're looking for medicore or solid defenses playing at home. I eliminated the top 10 (drafted) defenses because it's not likely that they'll be available on your league's waiver wire. (If they are, go ahead and use them as part of your DTBWW.) I indicated the ideal matchups in green and good matchups in blue. As you can see, there are ideal matchups available in 10 of the first 16 weeks, and in the other six weeks, there are an average of two good matchups available for use in the DTBWW.

So as the season wears on, fantasy owners can use this table as a guide. But remember, it's important to be flexible. If Carson Palmer comes back strong and the Bengals start scoring 25+ points a game, you may want to stop using Cincinnati in your DTBWW. Conversely, if a team like the Chiefs really starts to struggle offensively, you may want to add them to the list of teams that you're considering on a weekly basis.

Shaun Hill recently beat out Alex Smith for the starting QB gig in San Francisco, but his Average Draft Position (ADP) hasn't risen all that much. He's still available in roughly 85% of ESPN's fantasy leagues, and is a nice pickup for fantasy owners looking to bolster their QB position.

Last season, he took over a 2-6 team in Week 10, and averaged 234 passing yards, 1.5 pass TD and 0.3 rush TD over the last eight games of the season. Subtracting interceptions (1.0 per game), this works out to about 19.1 fantasy points per game. Had Hill averaged these numbers over the course of an entire season, he would have finished as last year's QB6, ahead of Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb. Moreover, he led the 49ers to a 5-3 record down the stretch, so he has proven that he can win games.

Amongst all NFL QBs, Hill also projects to face the 8th-easiest schedule. Obviously, projections are just projections, but all else being equal, I'd rather have a guy with a schedule that looks favorable. The 49ers are also likely to be trailing for much of the season, which will make it difficult for the team to follow through with its planned 60/40 run/pass split.

Hill doesn't have a lot of weapons in the passing game, but the situation is pretty much unchanged from last season, so that isn't a huge concern. If Vernon Davis ever taps into his significant potential and/or Michael Crabtree signs and learns the offense, it could be make Hill's job a lot easier.

Hill is an undrafted 29-year-old journeyman, so he isn't going to set the world on fire. I wouldn't expect Top 10 numbers, though his performance last season would indicate that he's capable of posting that kind of production. He's one of those QBs who plays for a pretty bad team that should be trailing much of the time. If he can stay healthy, this could result in fantasy gold.

Grab him as a fantasy backup, especially if you have a QB that has a bye during one of Hill's favorable matchups (McNabb, Warner, Ryan, Rivers, Brees, Rodgers and Cutler). He's also a great guy to look for as part of a QBBC, specifically when used with Matt Cassel, David Garrard and Eli Manning. Throughout the preseason, he has been readily available in the 12th round of most fantasy drafts, and has actually gone undrafted in many leagues.

The Scores Report is officially on Twitter. AnthonyStalter has all of your NFL, CFB and MLB cravings covered, John_Paulsen covers the NBA and college hoops, and fantasytips is a good source for all things fantasy football.

With the relative depth at the position, one approach to drafting a fantasy quarterback is to spend the first six or seven rounds drafting running backs, wide receivers and even a tight end. Then, in the eighth round or later, start to think about drafting a QB. Oftentimes, the players available in the 4th or 5th round won’t drastically outscore those QBs taken in the 8th or later.

Why is this? Well, one reason is that, once fantasy owners have a starting QB, they tend to draft for depth at running back and wide receiver instead of drafting a backup QB, whom they know probably won’t sniff their starting lineup, except as a bye week fill in.

Another reason is that most leagues require two starting running backs, which means 24 starting RBs in total (assuming a 12-team league). With more and more real NFL teams utilizing a RBBC, the position is much thinner than QB, which requires 12 fantasy starters of 32 real world starters.

Typically, this results in good depth at the QB position, where the expected production from QB10 isn’t all that different than QB20. This year the QB10 off the board is Matt Ryan (7.01) while the QB20 is Joe Flacco (11.02). To illustrate my point, in a “high performance” scoring system (4 pts per pass TD, 1 pt per 20 yards passing), Footballguys projects Ryan to score 255 fantasy points and Flacco to score 235. Are those 20 fantasy points worth burning a 7th round pick instead of an 11th? Over a 17-game schedule, that works out to less than 1.2 fantasy points per week.

In other words, it’s probably not going to cost you too many wins to go with Flacco instead of Ryan. In fact, you’ll probably be better off because the WR or RB you draft in the 7th round (Santana Moss?) is likely to vastly outperform his 11th-round counterpart (Michael Jenkins?). Footballguys projects Moss to outscore Jenkins by 75 points, a 4.4-point per week advantage. So by going with a Moss/Flacco combo instead of a Ryan/Jenkins combo, you’re gaining a net of 3.2 points per week.

Going one step further: why not draft two middle- to late-round quarterbacks whose schedules mesh well together to create a Quarterback By Committee (QBBC)? That way, you can load up on RB, WR and TE talent in the first seven or eight rounds knowing that you’ll still be able to get good QB play from a couple of later picks by taking advantage of the ebbs and flows of each player's schedule.

To that end, I took the QB strength of schedule data from Footballguys and calculated the per week projections (by using the aforementioned Footballguys projected stats) for every starting quarterback in the league.

Once that was done, I eliminated the 13 QBs with an average draft position (ADP) in the first seven rounds. This means that Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner, Aaron Rodgers, Phillip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger are not a part of this study.

This left 19 potential QBs – actually a few more when you consider those teams that haven’t settled on a starter yet. More on this later.

I then determined the best combined schedule (based on projected points scored) for each of the 171 two-QB combinations for a 16-game season (since most leagues don’t play in Week 17).

So who came out on top?

#1 COMBO

Matt Cassel and Shaun Hill (or Alex Smith)...280.7 fp
This combination is a little tough because Cassel is currently being drafted QB14 (8.08), so you’re probably going to have to use an 8th or 9th round pick on him. This means that you may have to pass on some value at RB, WR or even TE that slips into the 8th. On the flip side, Hill is going 14.01, so there’s no rush in grabbing him after you have Cassel.

I like this combo, but Cassel worries me a little bit because he’s joining a new offense that lost Tony Gonzalez over the summer. Dwyane Bowe is a very good target, but the Chiefs are lacking other proven playmakers in the passing game. On the other hand, Hill was very productive (18.3 ppg) in nine starts for the 49ers, though Mike Singletary hasn’t been very impressed with him in camp. (The same goes for Alex Smith, by the way.)

Another issue with this pair is that I assumed that Hill would start all 16 games and would score the points projected for Smith (or vice versa). After all, only one QB can score at a time, right?

To utilize this combo, start each guy in the following weeks:

Cassel / (Hill/Smith): (1), (2), (3), 4, (5), 6, (7), (8), (9), (10), (11), (12) 13, (14) 15, 16

Now there’s word that Smith may win the job, making this combo dicey at best for fantasy owners drafting soon. I’d recommend waiting until the 49er QB situation is settled before trying to pull the trigger on this QBBC (unless you have plenty of roster space and can grab both Hill and Smith very late).

KEY QUARTERBACKS

As I peruse the top 20 or so combinations, a few names keep popping up.

David Garrard (10.02)
I love Garrard as a value pick this year and he should be deadly in a QBBC format. The Jacksonville offensive line is healthy again and the addition of Torry Holt should give Garrard a good option in the passing game. He was QB9 last year, so I don’t see why he wouldn’t post similar numbers in 2009 with a better line and an improved receiving corps.
Combines well with: Trent Edwards, Matt Cassel, Eli Manning, Jason Campbell

Trent Edwards (10.02)
Edwards missed two games last year and had a few other clunkers, but he showed some promise (nine of 14 starts with 14+ fantasy points) and the arrival of Terrell Owens opposite Lee Evans gives him two legitimate threats to throw to.
Combines well with: David Garrard, Kyle Orton, Hill/Smith, Matt Cassel, Jason Campbell, Eli Manning

Eli Manning (9.08)
Losing Plaxico Burress definitely hurts, but Manning has a great offensive line and a group of young receivers that have a good chance of developing into a solid unit. Domenik Hixon played well in Burress’s place last season and Steve Smith is a good possession receiver. Throw in rookie Hakeem Nicks and young tight end Kevin Boss, and the Giants’ passing game should be all right without Plax.
Combines well with: Hill/Smith, David Garrard, Trent Edwards, Kyle Orton

Jason Campbell (12.10)
Campbell should benefit from some stability in terms of what kind of offense he’s trying to run. Santana Moss is a very good receiver and Chris Cooley is a top five tight end. Campbell rarely puts up a total stinker – he scored at least 10 points in 15 of 16 starts in 2008, and that makes him a safe start.
Combines well with: Hill/Smith, Trent Edwards, David Garrard

Kyle Orton (9.07)
“Neck Beard” is now the Broncos’ QB and he has a much better receiving corps (featuring Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal) than he had in Chicago. He will also be protected by one of the best offensive lines in football -- that won't hurt. Still, he’s joining a new team and Marshall is disgruntled, so he’s not a sure bet. Plus, there are other guys I’d rather have in the 9th.
Combines well with: Hill/Smith, Cassel, Edwards

Matt Cassel (8.08)
Combines well with: Hill/Smith, Kyle Orton, Trent Edwards, David Garrard, Joe Flacco, Matt Hasselbeck

Hill/Smith (14.01)
Combines well with: Matt Cassel, Kyle Orton, David Garrard, Eli Manning, Trent Edwards, Jason Campbell, Joe Flacco, Matt Hasselbeck

Most of these combos are projected to net 270+ points, so assuming a 15-point fill in during the bye week of a “stud” QB, a QBBC is projected to outscore all but the top six or seven QBs at a fraction of the price.

RECOMMENDED COMBOS

At this point, these are the QBBCs that I would target:

Cassel/Garrard
Garrard/Campbell
Garrard/Edwards
Garrard/Manning
Cassel/Edwards
Cassel/Orton
Cassel/Flacco

Once the Hill/Smith situation clears up, the winner would make a nice combo with Garrard, Cassel, Manning and Orton. The nice thing about QBBC is that given the depth at the position, if you miss out on Cassel in the 8th, there’s a good chance that Garrard will be there in the 9th, and there are several QBs who schedules mesh well with his. If he's gone, you could always grab Eli Manning (if available) and draft Shaun Hill and/or Alex Smith later on. The options are numerous, so pick two or three combinations that you like and give it a try.

We’ll be spending much of our fantasy football preview (coming soon!) highlighting the players who represent good value this year. But while finding a few diamonds in the rough can make or break a fantasy team, it is just as important to pick the right diamond in the first round. Fantasy championships aren’t won in the first round, but they can be lost.

To that end, I’m going to discuss the five RBs that I believe are head and shoulders above the rest. The first three players are as solid as the day is long, and while the last two aren’t quite as dependable, their upside trumps the question marks surrounding their short-term prospects.

Any ADP data you see is from Antsports, and it assumes a 12-team league with their high performance scoring system, which includes six points per rush TD and one point per reception.

1. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars (1.02)
Sharing time with Fred Taylor for much of his career, MJD has still averaged 1313 total yards, 49 receptions and 12.6 TD over his first three seasons. Even though Taylor seemed to step aside in 2008, he still had 143 carries, which ate into MJD’s touches. The Jacksonville offensive line is finally healthy, and along with new additions Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton, the Jags should get much better play up front. With Taylor gone and an easier schedule, all signs point to a career year for Maurice Jones-Drew.
Projected stats: 230 carries, 1035 rushing yards, 12 rush TD; 55 rec, 495 rec yards, 2 rec TD…291 fantasy points

2. Matt Forte, Bears (1.03)
As a rookie, Forte was the top fantasy back in 2008. Kevin Jones has been looking good, and the Bears seem to want to take some of the workload off of their young buck. So I’m predicting a drop in carries and receptions, but not a huge drop. He is one of the league’s best pass-catching backs and with limited options in the passing game, Jay Cutler will have to look Forte’s way early and often. Moreover, the Bears’ O-line looks to be improved with the addition of Orlando Pace, who needs to stay healthy for Forte to drastically improve his pedestrian ypc (3.9).
Projected stats: 269 carries, 1103 rushing yards, 8 rush TD; 57 rec, 433 rec yards, 3 rec TD...277 fantasy points

3. Adrian Peterson, Bears (1.01)
It looks like Brett Favre isn’t going to be under center for the Vikings, so the offense will again be extremely dependent on Peterson’s ability to run the football. Even though he faced a host of eight-man fronts last season, he still averaged 4.8 yards per carry, in no small part because Minny has one of the best offensive lines in football. AP is a threat in the passing game, but the Vikings don’t make much of an effort to get him the ball in space. One downside – he led the league in fumbles (9) in 2008.
Projected stats: 340 carries, 1632 rushing yards, 11 rush TD; 20 rec, 160 rec yards, 1 rec TD...271 fantasy points

4. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers (1.06)
LT2 didn’t turn in the kind of season that we were all expecting, but he still had a solid year, finishing as 2008’s RB10. (Had he scored one more TD, he would have been RB6.) He fought through groin and toe injuries, but looks completely healthy now and head coach Norv Turner expects him to challenge for the rushing title. Tomlinson is on the wrong side of 30, and has carried the ball 2657 times in his career. But he’s always been special, so there’s a good chance he can buck the odds and squeeze another top 5 season (or two) out of those old bones.
Projected stats: 260 carries, 1092 rushing yards, 11 rush TD; 45 rec, 338 rec yards, 2 rec TD...266 fantasy points

5. Steven Jackson, Rams (1.05)
Even though he missed (or was limited) in five games in 2008, Jackson still finished the season as RB19 and was one of only five backs – Forte, DeAngelo Williams, Brian Westbrook and Reggie Bush being the other four – to average at least 19 fantasy points per game. Clearly, he’s a top 5 back when healthy, but can he stay healthy? He has missed eight games over the last two seasons, so it’s a legitimate concern. Still, his upside is too good to pass up at 1.05.
Projected stats: 280 carries, 1148 rushing yards, 9 rush TD; 45 rec, 383 rec yards, 2 rec TD...264 fantasy points

You may be wondering where Michael Turner’s name is, but as the Falcons open up the playbook more and more for Matt Ryan (along with the addition of Tony Gonzalez), I don’t think Turner will approach 370 carries again this season. Besides, he’s not involved enough in the Falcons’ passing game to warrant a spot on this list, at least in a PPR league.

Of course, I always reserve the right to change my mind (or my projections), but as it stands today, this is the order in which I would go if I were drafting in a high performance PPR league. In the meantime, be sure to follow "FantasyTips" on Twitter, where we'll be publishing even more fantasy content as the season gets closer.

Related content: Surprises and Busts: Trying to predict the unpredictable in fantasy football

Most fantasy owners draft a running back in the first round and oftentimes their season depends on how that player fares. If he misses a few games with an injury and is bothered by it for a few more, his production will suffer and it will put his fantasy team in a tough spot. This can be offset if his owner is savvy enough to draft one of the “surprise” backs that inevitably crash the top 10 every season.

But how does one pluck one of these backs out of the middle rounds? Better yet, how can we avoid drafting an early round bust in the first place?

As a forewarning, this is not a tight article. I ponder, deliberate and meander as I go along. Trying to predict the future is nebulous at best and futile at worst, so please bear with me as I muddle my way through this topic.

Here’s a list of the top RBs from 2008...

RB1 – Matt Forte (RB30)
RB2 – DeAngelo Williams (RB36)
RB3 – Maurice Jones-Drew (RB13)
RB4 – Thomas Jones (RB23)
RB5 – Brian Westbrook (RB3)
RB6 – Michael Turner (RB19)
RB7 – Adrian Peterson (RB2)
RB8 – Steve Slaton (RB67)
RB9 – Chris Johnson (RB40)
RB10 – LaDainian Tomlinson (RB1)
RB11 – Clinton Portis (RB8)
RB12 – Marshawn Lynch (RB9)

Michael Turner went on average in the very late third round, so that makes six backs that were drafted outside the first two rounds that made the top 12. Maurice Jones-Drew was a fringe first round pick, so players that were drafted in the first round finished in the top 12 about 50% of the time. Marion Barber (drafted RB7, finished RB13) and Frank Gore (drafted RB6, finished RB14) just missed the top 12. There were three first round “busts” – Joseph Addai, Larry Johnson and Willis McGahee – who finished outside the top 35. All three missed significant time due to injury. The final first round pick, Steven Jackson, finished as RB19 even though he missed four games due to injury.

What does this all mean? Good question...

Of the first 12 picks, eight finished in the top 20, and seven finished in the top 15. While that success rate certainly wouldn’t qualify as a sure thing, it doesn’t dispel the notion that fantasy owners should look to draft a running back in the first round. It’s not like drafting a WR was any more rewarding last year. The top three receivers – Randy Moss, Terrell Owens and Reggie Wayne – finished 11th, 13th and 12th amongst wideouts, respectively. The top QB, Tom Brady, missed the entire season with an injury and the second QB off the board, Peyton Manning, finished as 2008’s QB6.

Looking at the four middle- to late-round picks that made the top 12, we can draw some common themes. Five of the six are/were young. Thomas Jones had eight years in the league entering the 2008 season. The next most experienced player was Michael Turner, who had four years in the league. Four of the six were newcomers to their respective teams, with three rookies and Turner, who joined the Falcons after four seasons with the Chargers. Three entered the season as members of a committee -- Williams split time with Jonathan Stewart, Chris Johnson shared carries with LenDale White and Steve Slaton emerged as the last man standing in Houston.

Now let’s take a look at 2007…

RB1 – Brian Westbrook (RB8)
RB2 – LaDainian Tomlinson (RB1)
RB3 – Clinton Portis (RB16)
RB4 – Joseph Addai (RB6)
RB5 – Adrian Peterson (RB26)
RB6 – Jamal Lewis (RB27)
RB7 – Frank Gore (RB4)
RB8 – Marion Barber (RB24)
RB9 – Willis McGahee (RB13)
RB10 – Earnest Graham (RB??, undrafted)
RB11 – Maurice Jones-Drew (RB15)
RB12 – Reggie Bush (RB10)

There were four major surprises in the top 12 in 2007 – Peterson, Lewis, Barber and Graham. Peterson and Lewis were newcomers to their respective teams, while Barber and Graham each emerged from a RBBC as the main man. (Graham was actually the last man standing.) Portis was a semi-surprise, as he was coming off an injury-plagued 2006 and finished the season as RB3. The other seven top 12 players weren’t that surprising, as they were all picked in the top 15.

Seven of the top 12 picks in 2007 could be considered disappointments. Steven Jackson (drafted RB2, finished RB15), Willie Parker (drafted RB7, finished RB20) and Ronnie Brown (drafted RB12, finished RB23) were minor disappointments, while Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Rudi Johnson and Laurence Maroney all finished outside of the top 30. All four players missed significant time due to injury. LJ, Alexander and Johnson all had at least 622 carries during the previous two seasons.

WHAT TO MAKE OF ALL OF THIS

It’s difficult to predict who is going to bust because usually underperformance stems from some sort of injury. Some fantasy football analysts argue that a heavy workload in previous seasons will eventually cause a breakdown, but a large number of carries also indicates dependability and consistency, which is why these players are being drafted this early in the first place.

LaDainian Tomlinson is 30 and has averaged 332 carries over his eight years in the league. Even though he showed some signs of breaking down in 2008 (with a very pedestrian 3.8 ypc), he still gained 1536 yards from scrimmage and scored 12 TD, finishing the season as RB10. Would you pass on him late in the first round?

Steven Jackson is only 26, but he has missed eight games over the past two seasons after a stellar 2006 campaign. He should bounce back, but he’s also shown signs that he’s injury-prone. Brian Westbrook, Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, Clinton Portis, Brandon Jacobs and Marion Barber are all first- or second-round guys that are injury concerns for one reason or another. Unfortunately, it’s impossible to accurately predict which players are going to break down much less when.

So the best we can do is identify some possible surprises and hope they pan out, giving ourselves a safety net if one or more of our early picks have a disappointing season. We identified that youth, newcomer status, and starting the season in a RBBC were the top three factors of finding value in the middle to late rounds.

Right now, three names jump out at me: Derrick Ward (ADP: 5.03), Knowshon Moreno (4.10) and Chris Wells (6.01).

Ward was excellent when given the opportunity to start in place of an injured Brandon Jacobs in New York. He had 15+ carries eight times over the past two seasons, averaging 104 rushing yards in those games. He's also a very adept pass catcher, averaging 2.8 catches per game over the last two years. Most importantly, he's proven to be an efficient runner, averaging 4.8 ypc and 5.6 ypc in 2007 and 2008. He joins a semi-crowded backfield in Tampa that also includes Earnest Graham and Carnell Williams. But the Bucs gave Ward starter’s money, so he should have first crack at the job. His chances are further boosted by Williams’ knee injury and Graham’s ability to play fullback.

At first glance, Moreno looks to face something of an uphill battle to get carries in Denver. But these aren’t (or shouldn’t be) your father’s Broncos. Mike Shanahan is gone, and hopefully new coach Josh McDaniels didn’t inherit Skeletor’s joy of messing with his RB depth chart. Peyton Hillis, Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan and Ryan Torain are also there, but Moreno is the most talented runner of the group. Here’s an excerpt from Moreno's scouting report at FFToolbox…

Moreno is naturally blessed with a nice blend of size and speed, but it is his athleticism, vision, and ability to hit the hole that sets him apart as arguably the best running back in this year's draft class.

Moreover, the Broncos were 2nd in the league in yards per carry with 4.8. This was with Michael Pittman, Peyton Hillis and Selvin Young rushing the football. I expect Moreno will get starter’s carries and finish in the top 15, maybe even the top 10.

Lastly, Chris “Beanie” Wells joins Tim Hightower in the Arizona backfield. What’s worrisome about Wells is that the Cardinals have struggled with their ground game over the past several seasons. Last year, they averaged just 3.5 ypc, which was next to last in the league.

On the plus side, teams don’t usually burn a first round pick on a running back unless they plan to use him. Clearly, the Cardinals did not feel strongly enough about Hightower to use their first pick to shore up another weakness, and they must have seen something in Wells that they really liked. This kind of favoritism usually leads to opportunity, and that’s half the battle.

As the training camps wear on, we may be able to identify some of the other “surprise” prospects. Inevitably, a veteran will go down with an injury, or a rookie will make a splash. This might help us recognize who the next Earnest Graham or Chris Johnson will be.

Stay tuned.

The NBA offseason is by no means over, but the lion's share is behind us, so it's a good time to take a look back at a few of the...um...let's say "questionable" decisions of the summer. Here are my Top 10, in no particular order. Feel free to add to the list if I missed something.

1. Trevor Ariza plays spiteful hardball...and loses.
Let's get this straight -- the Lakers offered Ariza the same deal he was getting on the open market, and he refused since the Lakers could have offered more, but didn't? Um, okay. David Lee (the agent, not the Knicks forward) says that Ariza wanted to go somewhere where he'd be "appreciated." Lee overestimated the market for his client, and the Lakers quickly moved on to acquire Ron Artest. Now instead of playing for the world champs, Ariza is stuck in Houston on a team that faces a very uncertain future. Lee now says that Ariza turned down a deal worth $9 million more, but still picked Houston. It sounds to me like he's just trying to save face.

2. Grizzlies acquire Zach Randolph.
Once the Clippers traded for Randolph (and his toxic contract) last season, I thought the bar for NBA general managers had hit a new low thanks to Mike Dunleavy and his wily ways. But Dunleavy proved that he wasn't the dumbest GM in the league when he convinced the Memphis Grizzlies to take on the final two years Randolph's contract at the tune of $33.3 million. Remember that $25 million or so of cap space that the Grizzlies were going to have next summer? Yeah, that's down to about $8 million with this brilliant move. Just when it looked like Chris Wallace was going to rehab his image after the Pau Gasol trade -- Marc Gasol panning out, trading for O.J. Mayo -- he goes and does this. Sigh.

3. T-Wolves draft both Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn with no (good) plan in place.
When GM David Kahn drafted two point guards with back to back picks, everyone around the league thought that he had a trade in place. Not so, according to Kahn, who likes the idea of playing two smallish, ball-dominating guards in the same backcourt. Now Rubio is threatening to stay in Europe for another year or two, and Kahn is seemingly happy to wait until Rubio finally makes his way to the NBA to see if his unorthodox plan (and that's being kind) will ultimately work.

4. The Magic trade for Vince Carter.
Let's see, your team just lost in the Finals -- losing two games in overtime -- and your main ballhandler is a free agent. What do you do? It's tough to create the kind of chemistry that gets a team to the Finals, so you re-sign him, right? Not the Orlando Magic, who balked at Hedo Turkoglu's $10 million-per-season asking price and instead pulled the trigger on a trade for Vince Carter. So essentially they gave up their most consistent player (Turkoglu) and a budding star (Courtney Lee) for the 32-year-old Carter. A healthy Jameer Nelson (along with a savvy mid-level signing) may have been enough to put this Magic team over the top, but now we'll never know.

5. Pistons sign Ben Gordon for $11 million per season.
Look, I like Ben Gordon...for about $8 million per season. The guy is a great scorer, but he has sketchy shot selection at times and is a big liability on defense. For years, the Bulls didn't even deem him good enough to start, but the Pistons are going to throw $11 million per year at him? And it turns out that they were bidding against themselves, as the Bulls didn't even bother to make an offer before Gordon signed with Detroit.

6. No one makes an offer (that we know of) to Ramon Sessions.
7. The Bucks don't extend one-year offer to Charlie Villanueva and lose him without compensation.
8. The Bucks give away Richard Jefferson.
Let's tackle my beloved Bucks all at once. First, they give away a former All-Star Jefferson in a salary dump. Then, they elect not to take the option to make Villanueva a restricted free agent, which allows the Pistons to sign him away without having to give the Bucks anything in return. I know why the Bucks made these moves -- they don't feel that this roster is worthy of being in luxury tax territory and I don't disagree, but small market teams can't give away assets for nothing. Yeah, maybe signing Villanueva for the final year of his rookie contract would have cost them $4 million or more, but they could have traded him for a young prospect or maybe a draft pick. And why didn't they get a first rounder out of the Spurs for Jefferson? Small market teams have a tough time signing stars, so they have to build through the draft and via trade. Giving away the rights to a $7 million-per-season player (which is what the Pistons paid Villanueva) is not the way to get better. Lastly, why hasn't anyone made RFA Ramon Sessions an offer? The Bucks have proven that they are trying to cut salary and they picked up Brandon Jennings in the draft. Does anyone really think that they'd match a significant ($4-$5 million per year) offer for Sessions? He had the 13th-highest PER amongst all point guards, and the 5th-highest amongst all point guards under the age of 26. Moreover, his +/- numbers are the best on the team for anyone who played more than 1200 minutes. Why hasn't a team in need of point guard help (Portland?) jumped on this guy?

9. The Suns give away Shaquille O'Neal.
Regular readers know that I'm not fond of the job Steve Kerr is doing in Phoenix. First, he trades Rudy Fernandez away for cash. Then he ruins one of the most exciting teams in NBA history by trading Shawn Marion for Shaquille O'Neal. Now he seemingly admits that the Shaq trade was all for naught by giving him away in a salary dump. Shaq made the Third Team All-NBA last year, and Kerr traded him for Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic's expiring contracts. Geesh.

10. Six teams pass on DeJuan Blair IN THE SECOND ROUND!
When I first heard that there were concerns about Blair's knees, I thought he might fall into the bottom third of the first round. Even if the guy is missing ligaments in his knees, he was still one of the best rebounders in all of college basketball last season and he ate up #2 pick Hasheem Thabeet in Connecticut. When Blair fell into the second round I was stunned as the Kings, Wizards, Blazers, Nuggets, Pistons and Grizzlies all passed on Blair. A second round pick doesn't require the same kind of financial commitment as a first round pick, so there's very little downside if the guy doesn't pan out. Blair fell and fell, right into the inviting arms of the Spurs, who will be lucky to have him on the roster for the foreseeable future.