Lady luck lends a hand
11/15/2001
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We're about to jump into week 10 of the NFL schedule and one phrase pops into my head when I take a long look at the standings: "up for grabs."
You see, the Rams are simply the best team in football, especially when you consider the St. Louis offense scored 113 points the past three games despite Marshall Faulk being on the sidelines for two of those contests, and Kurt Warner throwing seven interceptions and only three touchdowns during this stretch thanks, in part, to a sore thumb. Of course, that all means that not only do the Rams have the best offensive skilled position players in football, they've also got a deep roster and a severely underrated defense.
But after St. Louis, who would you pick as a Super Bowl favorite? ... I'll give you some time... .
I'm sure some of you pointed to the 6-2 Oakland Raiders, some selected the 6-2 Packers, and some of you maybe even like the Eagles or even the Steelers or Dolphins. Hell, maybe the Bears have a shot, or the red-hot Jets or Jim Fassel's Giants. And let's not forget the defending champs in Baltimore.
If it seems like I named practically every team in football... you're right. In fact, there are 21 teams in the NFL with at least a .500 record, and of the 10 teams with a sub-.500 mark, I'd say two or three still have the ability to make a late-season playoff push -- Tennessee, Minnesota and maybe Jacksonville. Overly optimistic? Maybe, but in a league that's already featured 59 games decided by a touchdown or less -- and 28 by three or fewer points -- division leaders and basement dwellers can seemingly flip-flop on a weekly basis.
For example, let's dissect the seasons of two teams on the opposite end of the contending spectrum, Baltimore and Detroit. The Ravens own a 6-3 record after stopping the Titans on the goal line Monday night for their third-straight win; meanwhile, the Lions fell to a pitiful 0-8 after dropping a heartbreaker to the Bucs this past Sunday. Now, a lot of people think the Ravens have what it takes to at least repeat as AFC champs, but nobody's chilling any champagne in the Detroit locker room. Well, they may be ready to celebrate the end of the season, but... .
Anyway, while the defending Super Bowl champs are right in the middle of the AFC playoff picture, things could very easily be different in Baltimore this season. Here's a snapshot of the Ravens schedule and results:
Week one:
17-6 win vs. Chicago
Week two:
10-21 loss @ Cincinnati
Week three:
20-13 win @ Denver
Week four:
26-7 win vs. Tennessee
Week five:
23-31 loss @ Green Bay
Week six:
14-24 loss @ Cleveland
Week seven:
18-17 win vs. Jacksonville
Week eight: 13-10 win @ Pittsburgh
Week nine: 16-10 win @ Tennessee
That 6-3 record puts the Ravens ½ game behind Pittsburgh, Miami and Oakland in the AFC standings, but it's a shaky 6-3 record, and the above numbers point to a team that could be vulnerable. After back-to-back losses in weeks five and six to the Packers and Browns, Baltimore won their next three games by a combined 10 points, and they needed a fourth-quarter rally against the Jags, four missed field goals from Pittsburgh kicker Kris Brown, and that last-second, goal line stuff in Tennessee to do it.
Then there's Detroit, the NFL's only winless team. Here are the results from their first eight games:
Week one: 6-28 loss @ Green Bay
Week two: 14-24 loss @ Cleveland
Week three: Bye
Week four: 0-35 loss vs. St. Louis
Week five: 26-31 loss @ Minnesota
Week six: 24-27 loss vs. Tennessee
Week seven: 27-31 loss vs. Cincinnati
Week eight: 13-21 loss @ San Francisco
Week nine: 17-20 loss vs. Tampa Bay
True, no matter how you spruce it up, 0-8 is 0-8... and that's damn ugly. But while the Lions got man- handled in their first three losses, getting outscored 20-87, they've actually played pretty well since week five, losing five games by a total of 22 points.
So on one hand, you've got a legitimate Super Bowl threat with a 6-3 record that's only 10 points, a couple made field goals and a few extra seconds on the clock from five-straight losses and a disastrous 3-6 record. And then you've got a winless team that's only 22 points from a contending 5-3 mark.
I know, I know: "Good teams win close games," and "great teams win even when they don't play well." I agree with that. Certainly, Baltimore's experience and talent, both offensively and defensively, has given them the advantage in these recent tight games while Detroit's lack of consistency has dragged them down all season, but luck -- either good or bad -- without question plays a part in every team's successes. Or failures. You can't tell me the Ravens' experience forced Brown to shank that potential game-tying field goal two weeks ago.
But Baltimore and Detroit aren't the only two teams in the NFL that have won and lost their fair share of close games this season. There are plenty of teams throughout the league who could find themselves in entirely different situations had good fortune either been on their side or deserted them in crunch time. Take a look at the Cleveland Browns. With a 4-4 record, they're tied for third in the AFC Central with the Bengals, but do you know just how close Cleveland is to a 7-1 season?
The Brownies lost their opener to the Seahawks 9-6 thanks to Rian Lindell's game-winning, 52-yard field goal with 2:11 left in the game. Then, after winning four of their next five games, head coach Butch Davis watched his team blow a 21-7 fourth-quarter lead in Chicago on a nine-yard touchdown pass, a botched onsides kick, a desperation Hail Mary heave, and an interception returned for a touchdown in overtime. The following week, Cleveland once again watched a game slip through their fingers in overtime, only this time the culprit was a certain Pittsburgh kicker who'd handed Baltimore their fifth win of the season a week earlier.
How about Miami, a team that's won four of their six games by a total of 18 points, including last week's come-from-behind victory in Indianapolis on Jay Fiedler's 29-yard touchdown pass with just over seven minutes left in the game. Or the Jets, who have scored 184 points on the year and allowed 182 but still somehow own a comfortable 6-3 record. Last week's 27-7 win over the Chiefs marked only the third time this season New York held a lead at halftime. And before last Sunday's 17-point win over the Bengals, Jacksonville had lost their previous three games by only eight combined points.
The NFC isn't without its own sob stories, though. The East is still wide open but the 5-3 Eagles had a chance to really run away with the division early on. Philly lost by 10 to the Raiders a few weeks ago, but in week one St. Louis needed overtime to take out the Eagles 20-17, and three weeks later a fourth-quarter touchdown pass from Jake Plummer gave Arizona a 21-20 win over Donovan McNabb's Eagles. And if you're looking for heartbreak, take a look at the 5-4 New York Giants' schedule -- two losses to the Rams and Eagles by a total of two points in successive weeks, 14-15 and 9-10. In Chicago, the Central leading Bears needed defensive touchdowns from Mike Brown in overtime to beat the 49ers and Browns in weeks seven and eight, while the Buccaneers have only been outscored 74-89 in their four losses. Finally, there's New Orleans, a team that's lost four games this season by an average of 5.5 points, including last weekend's one-point loss to the 49ers.
All of this, of course, just means that no lead is safe this year in any NFL game, and that no team is immune from the dreaded upset bug, including the Rams. While they're the best in football, there also are plenty of teams that can play up to their standards on any given weekend, including the Packers and Raiders. Unfortunately, the schedule makers didn't draw up a St. Louis/Green Bay or St. Louis/ Oakland match up for us, but if the Rams happen to meet the Pack or the Raiders in the playoffs... look out.
Then again, with the way this season is shaking out, we just may see the Lions, Bills and Panthers in the postseason instead of the Rams, Packers and Raiders.
... Okay, now I'm being unrealistic.
In the Bullz-Eye
Miami Heat head coach Pat Riley. The Heat are 2-5 right now and, with Alonzo Mourning battling illness, Brian Grant out with a foot injury and Rod Strickland suffering through a sore hamstring, things aren't going to get much prettier in Miami anytime soon. Plus, Minnesota, Dallas, Charlotte and Sacramento are all on the upcoming schedule, meaning the road ahead is going to be rough with 'Zo and Grant on the sidelines in street clothes.