The home stretch
09/15/2000
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In the National League, the Braves, Mets, Cardinals and Giants are really the only four teams with realistic shots at postseason play, but the Diamondbacks are also hanging on to slim playoff aspirations. Unlike the American League, where there are still several intriguing races being fought, the National League offers very little drama. Here are the standings as of Friday, September 15:
NL East:
Atlanta Braves 86-60 (.589)
New York Mets 84-62 (.575) 2 games back
NL Central:
St. Louis Cardinals 86-61 (.585) 11 games ahead of Cincinnati
NL West:
San Francisco Giants 87-58 (.600)
Arizona D'backs 78-66 (.542) 8.5 GB
NL Wildcard
New York Mets
Arizona D'backs 5 GB
Aside from the AL wildcard race, the NL East may be the most intriguing story leading into the playoffs. The Braves are playing some good baseball right now. Chipper Jones is making his annual late-season surge and Andres Galarraga hasn't shown any signs of slowing down this year, despite his battle with cancer a year ago. Meanwhile, the pitching staff, which struggled earlier in the season, has managed to turn around a little bit. Tom Glavine may be putting the finishing touches on another Cy Young season, especially with Randy Johnson's recent struggles, and Greg Maddux looked fantastic in a complete game shutout of the Florida Marlins on September 13. Even more encouraging for Atlanta, though, is the apparent turnaround of last season's ace, Kevin Millwood. Reports say his velocity and control are back to his 1999 standards and his confidence on the mound has even been restored. But as important as Millwood is to this team, John Rocker's return to form is perhaps the best news in Atlanta all season. The fiery lefty closer has finally left his problems in the past and is going out to the mound and slamming the door. In fact, he has seven of the Braves' last nine saves and on the year, he's 21 for 22 in save opportunities. There's no reason to think Atlanta will choke on this two game lead.
So apparently the best the Mets can hope for is the wildcard berth. New York actually pulled even with the Braves about two weeks ago but since have sputtered and stumbled back into second place in the East. MVP candidate Mike Piazza hasn't been on for about a month now and is only 6 for 37 in September. His missing bat has really hurt the Mets' offense as they've only won six of their last 15 games, failing to score more than three runs in 10 of those contests. Of course, Robin Ventura's anemic season average (.229) hasn't helped matters much. But the Mets still have one of the best rotations in the NL with Al Leiter (14-7, 3.17 ERA), Mike Hampton (13-9, 3.06 ERA), Rick Reed (9-5, 4.20 ERA) and Glendon Rusch (10-10, 4.09 ERA) and perhaps the National League's most dominating closer in Armando Benitez (37 saves, 2.60 ERA, 99 K in 69.1 innings). With rookie Jay Payton playing superbly and Mike Bordick replacing Rey Ordonez's toothpick in the lineup, this is still an extremely talented team that could make some major noise in the playoffs, especially in a three-game series with Hampton and Leiter heading this rotation. But again, barring an utter collapse by the Braves, New York will have to take the wildcard road to the playoffs.
With the Cincinnati Reds 11 games behind them, the Cardinals can coast into the playoffs. Mark McGwire's slow but obvious recovery is a great sign for this team as, besides Jim Edmonds, they really have no big bopper in that lineup with the tall redhead sitting on the bench. Fernando Tatis hasn't been the same electrifying player since returning from his torn hamstring injury - although lately he's shown signs of pulling out of his funk - and J.D. Drew has begun to live up to all the battery-throwing hype. Will Clark was a great deadline addition but once Big Mac comes back, The Thrill will be relegated to pinch-hitting appearances and some late-inning mop-up duty. Pitching-wise, St. Louis doesn't have any glaring weaknesses, although it's obvious this team relies more on the bats than the staff. In fact, the Cards have given up 695 runs this season, the most by any NL division front runner, and the staff leader in ERA is Rick Ankiel, but he's only won nine games this year. Still, Darryl Kile has enjoyed life after Coors Field, and Pat Hentgen, Garrett Stephenson and Andy Benes, with Kile and Ankiel, form a very solid rotation. Now the Cards have 14 games left to get everyone healthy and ready for a postseason run.
In the West, the Giants should be booted Survivor-style from the league if they blow an 8.5-game lead this late in the season, but stranger things have happened. San Fran has surprised several people this year while actually sharing the best record in baseball with the White Sox. When the season began, the Giants were written off by a lot of people because of the pitching staff, but Shawn Estes and Livan Hernandez have revived their plummeting careers while Kirk Reuter has proven to be a solid #4 pitcher, and Russ Ortiz is making the Bay area forget about his dreadful start with some marvelous performances in his last 12 starts, going 8-3 while lowering his ERA from 6.50 to 5.05. In fact, Ortiz's loss on September 9 broke his string of seven consecutive winning starts. And with Rob Nen and Felix Rodriguez in the back end of a solid bullpen, there aren't many problems with this staff. But the Giants also have some bats to back up those pitchers. Barry Bonds already has set a career high with 47 homers and Jeff Kent has driven in 121 while hitting .334. And with the steady bat of J.T. Snow protecting these two stars, Ellis Burks has also shined.
When the Diamondbacks traded for Curt Schilling, everyone in baseball seemed willing to hand them the West title. Sure, having Schilling team up with the ugliest man in baseball, Randy Johnson, gives Arizona one of the best 1-2 pitching punches in the game, but where's the punch on offense? Matt Williams has been injured all season and can't even remember what his awesome stats looked like last season, let alone match them this year. While Steve Finley and Luis Gonzalez have been fantastic all season, Jay Bell and Tony Womack have been about as dependable as a set of Firestone tires. There really is nobody on this team who can be relied upon to get the big hit when it's needed. In fact, the veterans on this Diamondbacks team seemingly have taken turns striking out or grounding into double plays with the game on the line. But pitching wins championships, right? Well, since his first four incredible starts in an Arizona uniform, Schilling has fallen flat on his face. And Johnson? He can't seem to find the plate anymore and may be feeling the effects of all the innings he's thrown over the past five seasons. But the D'backs still have one of the more valuable bullpens in the game, especially with Matt Mantei beginning to resemble the closer Arizona traded for last year. Byung Kim can throw straight gas and can also close if Mantei stumbles. But with a five-game wild card deficit staring the Diamondbacks in the face, time is running out.
My predictions: NL East: Braves; NL Central: Cardinals; NL West: San Francisco; Wildcard: Mets. Too much would have to happen for these standings to change in the last two-plus weeks of the season.
In the Bullz-Eye
The Dallas Cowboys. Troy Aikman may be coming back this weekend but the Cowboys face a disappointed (and disappointing) Redskins team that will do anything to avoid starting the season with a 1-2 record. Then again, Jerry Jones would rather spend Christmas with Jimmy Johnson and Barry Switzer than fall to 0-3 on the season.