Bullz-Eye's NFL Game of the Week
10/26/2006
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This week’s match up: Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
Date: Sunday, Oct. 29
Time: 4:15pm ET, CBS
RESULT: Colts 34, Broncos 31
Why to tune in:
What a great match-up this should be. The undefeated Colts travel to Invesco Field to take on the Broncos, winner of five straight games. Indianapolis pits its high-powered passing attack against one of the stingiest defenses in the NFL. The Colts are sitting a little prettier in the AFC South with Jacksonville now struggling, but the Broncos would love to start pulling away form the Chargers in the AFC West with a win. How big would it be if Denver could get themselves a win and possibly not go to Indianapolis, where they’ve lost two recent playoff games, come January? So, the motivation is plenty high for Denver heading into Sunday. And how about the match-up between WR Marvin Harrison and CB Champ Bailey? Is it Sunday yet?
When the Colts have the ball:
Despite first impressions, Indy actually has a pretty balanced offensive attack. Dominic Rhodes and rookie Joseph Addai have given the Colts enough of a ground game to keep opposing defenses honest against the run. QB Peyton Manning is having another sensational year and is coming off a four-touchdown day against Washington. Wide outs Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, along with emerging TE Dallas Clark, have once again given Manning an abundance of weapons. But we know all about the Colts’ offense; what about Denver’s defense? The Broncos are giving up a paltry 7.3 points per game and are limiting opponents’ passing yards to just 181.7 per contest. Denver boasts one of the league’s best linebacker units in Al Wilson, D.J. Williams and Ian Gold. Watch for the Broncos to put Bailey on an island with one of Indy’s wide outs and double up the remaining receiver on the other side with CB Darrent Williams and a safety. John Lynch will probably be left to roam the secondary and come up in run support. If the Colts can’t spread the Broncos’ defense out, it could be tough sledding for Peyton all day.
When the Broncos have the ball:
Here is where Denver lacks production. While the defense has been amazing, the Broncos aren’t winning any of their games by a wide margin because the offense can’t score. Fortunately for Mike Shanahan, one constant remains: Denver is running the ball with great efficiency. RB Tatum Bell is third in the league in rushing with 585 yards and is averaging close to 98 yards a game. However, QB Jake Plummer’s mistakes are killing scoring drives for Denver, which is putting pressure on the defense. The Colts can’t stop the run, which bodes well for the Broncos. But if Plummer keeps giving chances to opposing teams on a silver platter, it won’t matter that Indy is allowing 158 yards on the ground. The Colts secondary, on the other hand, has been solid, meaning Plummer will be challenged again this week even though Indy will be without safety Mike Doss (season ending ACL injury). This is a nice test for the Colts’ defense. Stop Bell, make Plummer beat you and you probably stay undefeated. Let Bell run crazy like other backs have been able to do thus far this season, and you’re probably starring at your first defeat.
Prediction:
This is a tough game to predict, but let’s play the averages. Plummer isn’t going to be breaking any passing records, but he might not have to because of Indy’s total lack of a run defense. Bell should be able to break free on a couple of decent gains and without Doss, maybe Plummer gets off a couple of nice throws to Javon Walker and Rod Smith. The Colts O vs. the Broncos D is where the money is at, though. Can Denver stop Manning, or at least hold him in check? The Broncos have been great in forcing turnovers this year, but Manning doesn’t make many mistakes and Denver has had problems in the past getting pressure on the quarterback.
Very tough game to predict, but I’ll go with the home field advantage and say Indy falls for the first time this year: Broncos 23, Colts 21.
Questions or comments on this game? Send them to astalter@bullz-eye.com.