Bullz-Eye's NFL Game of the Week
10/19/2006
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We’ll be dissecting one big NFL match-up every week throughout the season, whether it's a long-standing rivalry, a divisional clash or a game with playoff implications.
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This week’s match up: NY Giants at Dallas
Date: Monday, Oct. 23
Time: 8:30pm ET ESPN
RESULT: Giants 36, Cowboys 22
Why to tune in:
With both the Cowboys and Giants notching wins last Sunday and the Eagles losing in New Orleans, this contest has major NFC East implications. With all three teams at two losses apiece, the winner of this game can keep pace with Philadelphia for first place in the division. In ’05, it was the home team in this rivalry that got it done as the Cowboys defeated the Giants 16-13 in overtime and New York getting a win at home, 17-10. Another thing to consider for both teams is their upcoming schedule after this contest. If the Giants can get a big road win in Dallas, they have two inferior opponents in Tampa Bay and Houston at home before having to host the Bears. They can easily be 6-2 before having to face Chicago. On the flip side, the Cowboys go on the road for the next three games, so being able to beat a division foe on their home turf is going to be paramount.
When the Giants have the ball:
What New York did so well last week in a 27-14 win over the Falcons was get RB Tiki Barber to the edge. TE Jeremy Shockey was able to crash down on the Falcons defensive ends, prompting Barber to make one move and get outside for big gains. Barber is excellent in getting safeties and outside linebackers to bite on his fakes, so he can spring runs for long gains. The Cowboys’ run defense is solid, but its strength comes from the middle with NT Jason Ferguson. If inside linebackers Bradie James and Akin Ayodele are neutralized against the run (much like the Falcons linebackers were), Barber and the Giants’ offense will be off to another big day on the ground. However, if Dallas can stay patient and keep Barber bottled up, they can force QB Eli Manning to make mistakes. Manning threw two interceptions in the first two possessions last week and almost lost a fumble. The Cowboys might not want to send a lot of all-out blitzes with the way Plaxico Burress, Shockey and Amani Toomer have played this season, but if Dallas can strike a balance against both the pass and the rush, Manning may beat himself as the game wears on.
When the Cowboys have the ball:
Bill Parcells wants to run the ball to keep the Giants’ improving defense off the field. The only problem is that New York has been great against the run, so they may force Parcells to once again change his scheme mid-game. Against the Eagles, the Cowboys ran well with RB Julius Jones, but they ended up getting into a shootout and had to rely solely on QB Drew Bledsoe. Bledsoe has proven time and time again that a little pressure will make him crack, so the Cowboys might be in for another long day against sack artists Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. New York is going to have to mask its deficiencies in the secondary by continuously bringing the house on Bledsoe. Last week, Giants defensive coordinator Tim Lewis blitzed virtually every down, which might lead to big games from the Cowboys’ stable of weapons in Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn and Jason Whitten. However, much like the Dallas defense, if the Giants can strike a balance of stopping Jones and getting pressure on the quarterback, Bledsoe might beat himself (just like in Philadelphia) and New York’s secondary will come away with a decent game.
Prediction:
Personally, I think that with Parcells being as hardheaded as he is in trying to establish the run, he’s going to eventually put Bledsoe in another situation where he has to win the game. It won’t work, not against that Giants’ defensive line. I think New York will consistently hold Jones at bay, which will lead to a shootout that the Cowboys (and Parcells) don’t want.
I bet Bledsoe has a decent stats day, but implodes in the turnover department against another NFC East rival. Plus, Manning keeps his cool late in the game: Giants 27, Cowboys 21.
Questions or comments on this game? Send them to astalter@bullz-eye.com.