Bullz-Eye's NFL Game of the Week
12/21/2006
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We’ll be dissecting one big NFL match-up every week throughout the season, whether it's a long-standing rivalry, a divisional clash or a game with playoff implications.
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This week’s match up: Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos
Date: Sunday, Dec. 24
Time: 4:15pm ET, CBS
RESULT: Broncos 24, Bengals 23
Why to tune in:
Take it to the bank: week 15 has the best match ups of the year. The best team in football, the San Diego Chargers, travel to suddenly inadequate Seattle? Jekyll and Hyde New England faces Jekyll and Hyde Jacksonville? Dallas vs. Philadelphia? Hell, who would have thought Saints vs. Giants at this time of the year would be interesting? The most crucial match up regarding both teams’ postseason hopes, however, features Cincinnati at Denver. Each team needs outside factors other than just a win to make the playoffs, but the victor in this contest would hold a crucial tiebreaker. If the playoffs started today, both the Broncos and Bengals would be in the playoffs with Denver getting the fifth seed and Cincinnati taking the sixth and final postseason spot. Here’s the best part, though: the playoffs don’t start today. That’s why Denver vs. Cincinnati is so huge because both squads need the win if either wants to be playing past week 17. Can rookie Jay Cutler win back-to-back games for the first time in his career? Can the Bengals bounce back from the pounding they took in Indy Monday night? Can all of the Cincinnati players stay out of jail before the 4:15pm ET kickoff on Sunday? Doubtful on the last question, but let’s dive into the match ups to help answer the first two.
When the Bengals have the ball:
Cincinnati had to be mystified at how a Colts defense that surrendered 375 yards on the ground to the Jaguars held Rudi Johnson to just 79 yards a week later. It wasn’t as if the Bengals were not committed to Rudi either, because Johnson carried the ball 22 times before Indy started running away with the game in the third quarter. Cincy might not want to chuck the run game for a vertical passing attack this weekend, however. While Denver’s defense was next to impenetrable at the start of the season, the Broncos have slipped to 12th in the league at stuffing the run. The unit is still above average, but Johnson might be able to crack the century mark if Marvin Lewis sticks to a balanced game plan. The best match up in this game, and possibly in the entire NFL this week, features Chad Johnson vs. Champ Bailey. Johnson leads the NFL in receiving yards with 1,284 and Bailey is tied for the league lead in interceptions with eight. While Cincy is tempted to hurl as many passes at Johnson during the course of the game, giving Bailey too many opportunities to create a turnover could be deadly. Bailey is arguably the only true cover-corner left in the NFL and no defensive back is better than Champ at locking on to a receiver in the red zone. Bailey uses his body to position himself perfectly between the receiver and the attempted pass. Most quarterbacks in the NFL can’t fit the ball into the small window that Bailey provides in coverage. Carson Palmer’s better option is going to be T.J. Houshmanzadeh or possibly Chris Henry. Bailey’s cornerback partner, Darrent Williams, is battling a toe injury. Williams missed last week’s game against Arizona, but is expected to play. If he can’t turn and run with Housh or Henry, Palmer might have a field day. Unfortunately, Palmer might have one of his main weapons taken away from him, but he can strike to Chad’s side when the Broncos go into a zone coverage scheme. It also should be noted that Palmer did not practice on Wednesday because of a bad shoulder. He is expected to play, however.
When the Broncos have the ball:
Rookie Jay Cutler notched his first career victory last week in Arizona and looked great doing so. Cutler has thrown exactly two touchdown passes in all three of his starts this season and should love facing a Bengals secondary that ranks dead last in the league. However, Cincinnati’s defense does live off the turnover, which has been something that Cutler often provides. The rookie can drive head coach Mike Shanahan batty at times with the way he refuses to toss the ball out of bounds when no one is open. Cutler would rather force the ball down field or into traffic than take a sack or throw it out of bounds. The only way the Bengals’ secondary wins this battle is if Cutler forces passes into covered receivers. Denver could have one big disadvantage in the passing game, however, because the Broncos may be without wide receiver Javon Walker. The veteran wide out has a separated shoulder and, while he was listed as probable at press time, Walker could suffer a setback and wind up sitting this game out. Another interesting battle might be between Broncos rookie tight end Tony Scheffler and Bengals outside linebackers Rashad Jeanty and Landon Johnson. Scheffler has emerged as one of Cutler’s favorite targets, and if Jeanty, Johnson or even strong safety Dexter Jackson are too focused on the potent Denver running game, Scheffler may get loose in the Cincy secondary. Speaking of that potent Broncos run game, you can always count on Shanahan to kill fantasy owners with his combo use of Mike Bell and Tatum Bell. Neither has emerged as a true starter, but both deserve equal carries with their big-play running abilities. The Broncos’ offensive line is very skilled at creating cutback lanes for Bell-squared. The system is designed for the running back to make his read, then make one cut and get up field. If Cincy isn’t disciplined, expect another huge day from the Bell boys.
Prediction:
It’s interesting to see an NFL season unfold. At the beginning of the season, this game might still have been Game of the Week-worthy, but it would have been an easier prediction. Cincinnati was struggling badly and with the Broncos being at home, Denver would have been an easy choice. The two teams have swapped places during the second half the season, however, and now it appears that Cincy might in fact be the better team. Plus, losing Walker would be devastating to Cutler and the Denver offense. Here’s what does it for me, though: the Bengals get thumped pretty well in Indianapolis and now, on a short week, have to fly out to Denver and play a more confident Jay Cutler? That’s a tall order, even with postseason hopes on the line.
I think Denver moves closer to the playoffs with a victory: Broncos 36, Bengals 28.
Questions or comments on this game? Send them to astalter@bullz-eye.com.