Bullz-Eye's NFL Game of the Week
12/14/2006
NFL Home / Sports Channel / Bullz-Eye Home
We’ll be dissecting one big NFL match-up every week throughout the season, whether it's a long-standing rivalry, a divisional clash or a game with playoff implications.
Want to get in on the action? Visit our NFL Live Lines page to compare the spread from four major handicappers before picking your winner. Good luck!
This week’s match up: Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
Date: Monday, Dec. 18
Time: 8:30pm ET, ESPN
RESULT: Colts 34, Bengals 16
Why to tune in:
This week’s battle consists of two teams heading in opposite directions. The Bengals ride into Indy on a four-game winning streak while the Colts have dropped three of their last four. Indianapolis can clinch the AFC North with a Jaguars loss, but head coach Tony Dungy would feel even better if his team can snap this recent funk. A win over the surging Bengals would go a long way in the Colts regaining a bit of confidence. Cincinnati is in a playoff oven that keeps getting hotter week to week. The Bengals can’t clinch a playoff berth with a win, but they can move closer to the postseason. A victory and Cincinnati can stave off the Jaguars, Jets, Chiefs and Broncos, who are all waiting in the proverbial playoff wings. Will the Bengals’ suddenly solid defense continue its hot streak? Can the Colts stop the run? Let’s dive into the match ups.
When the Bengals have the ball:
The blueprint on how to beat the Colts’ powerful offensive attack has been laid out the past four weeks. Run the ball down Indy’s throat and keep Peyton Manning and co. off the field. Cincinnati likes to line up three-wide and attack the opposing team’s secondary with an array of crossing and vertical routes. Both head coach Marvin Lewis and offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski are going to have to resist the urge to deliver the quick strike. Sticking to a well-balanced running attack with Rudi Johnson is going to have to be the focal point for the Bengals offense. Indy gave up a whopping 375 yards on the ground last week in Jacksonville. The interesting thing is that the Jaguars didn’t do anything special in accomplishing the feat. The Jags just lined up in basic formations and hammered the ball at the Colts’ undersized defensive line repeatedly. Running the ball on a consistent basis also neutralizes skilled pass-rusher Dwight Freeney. As much of a sack artist as Freeney is, he sometimes overplays the pass and forgets his run responsibilities. The loss of safety Mike Doss has also put a lot of pressure on the secondary to play run support. And no Colt defender has shown the penchant for tackling. One of the biggest reasons Cincinnati has been successful during its four-game win streak has been the play of the offensive line. Considered a weak point at the beginning of the year, the Bengals o-line has kept quarterback Carson Palmer upright and has given Rudi Johnson more room to run. Cincinnati just needs to keep it simple against the Colts defense. Pound the ball up the middle or on the edges and use the play-action fake to get playmakers Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmanzadeh involved. The Colts are just going to have to prove that they can stop the run.
When the Colts have the ball:
Manning and the rest of Indy’s offense has not been the problem. As noted above, the Colts offense has been kept off the field by clock-killing drives given up by their defense. However, Cincinnati’s defense has really stepped up of late. One of the big reasons why the Bengals’ defense played so well last year was that it was very opportunistic. The unit was forcing turnovers on a consistent basis, something it hasn’t done until recently. In back to back victories over New Orleans and Cleveland, Cincinnati caused a total of nine turnovers. Without the turnover, the Bengals simply can’t line up and beat you pound for pound. Plus, as of publication, nobody knows the status of cornerback Deltha O’Neal, who was arrested last week on a DUI charge and didn’t play against Oakland. O’Neal will probably play Monday, but he’ll have his hands full with Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison. Something that hurt Indy last week, however, was an unproductive running game. Rookie Joseph Addai just couldn’t get going, which forced the Colts to be too one-dimensional. The key for the Bengals is to try to take Addai out of the game early. However, Cincy can’t just load up the box with eight defenders and leave its cornerbacks on an island against Harrison and Wayne. Watch for the Bengals to use strong safety Dexter Jackson as an extra linebacker to help snuff Addai. That’s going to put a ton of pressure on free safety Madieu Williams to play centerfield in the Bengals’ deep coverage. However, with Jackson up in run support, he can also help clamp down on the flats where Indy likes to get the ball to Addai. Cincy might give up some field in the middle of the defense, but if Addai isn’t effective early, the Bengals may force the Colts to abandon the run.
Prediction:
This game is going to come down to if the Bengals can stick to running the ball on offense and eat up the clock. Manning is going to get his in the passing game, so do like the Jaguars did last week and keep him off the field. Bratkowski has been criticized a couple of times this season for abandoning the running game for quick passing strikes. Something tells me the Bengals aren’t going to be patient enough with Rudi Johnson and thus attempt a shootout with Indy. Bad idea.
Indianapolis hasn’t lost at home all season and hasn’t lost a game in which they could clinch a division title since 2004. Cincinnati’s hot streak ends here: Colts 31, Bengals 27.
Questions or comments on this game? Send them to astalter@bullz-eye.com.