Bullz-Eye's NFL Game of the Week
12/07/2006
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We’ll be dissecting one big NFL match-up every week throughout the season, whether it's a long-standing rivalry, a divisional clash or a game with playoff implications.
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This week’s match up: New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys
Date: Sunday, Dec. 10
Time: 8:15pm ET, NBC
RESULT: Saints 42, Cowboys 17
Why to tune in:
Week 14 is chalk full of great NFL action. Denver tries to keep pace in the AFC playoff race when they travel to San Diego. Jacksonville will try to accomplish the same feat when the Jags host Indianapolis. Major Wild Card implications are riding on the Giants-Panthers game in Charlotte and even Kansas City-Baltimore should be a good match up. But the best game on the Week 14 schedule is happening in Dallas. With the Bears working hard to prove that maybe they’re not the best team in the NFC, the winner of the Cowboys-Saints game might have a shot at one of the top playoff seeds. Everyone keeps waiting for the Saints to crumble, so a win over the red-hot Cowboys and Tony Romo would go a long way in proving New Orleans is for real. Plus rookie head coach Sean Payton will get to match wits with former boss Bill Parcels.
When the Saints have the ball:
New Orleans has been absolutely fantastic this year on the offensive side of the ball. The Saints are averaging a whopping 400 yards a game and arguably have the league MVP at quarterback. Aside from a couple of hiccups a few weeks ago vs. Baltimore and Cincinnati, Drew Brees has played amazing in New Orleans this season. Brees leads the league’s top-rated passing attack and might get back stud rookie wide out Marques Colston. Colston was arguably leading the rookie of the year race when he hurt his ankle a few weeks ago against the Bengals. Defensively, Dallas has all the tools to match up with all the weapons New Orleans has on offense. The big test will be for safety Roy Williams. Williams plays the run extremely well, which the Cowboys will need trying to defend the dual threat of Deuce McAllister and the dangerous Reggie Bush. However, Williams still gets lost in coverage on deep passes and Payton knows this from coaching the Cowboys the past couple of seasons. Look for the Saints to pressure Williams in coverage by sending Bush on crossing routes and then either Colston or Devery Henderson on post routes. If Williams bites on either, Brees might get the one-on-one coverage that can burn Dallas deep. The Cowboys are going to need cornerbacks Anthony Henry and Terrance Newman to bump the New Orleans receivers at the line. If they don’t and the Saints wide outs come clean off the line, Dallas is going to be in a world of hurt. The Cowboys do play the run particularly well, so I doubt McAllister will run amuck like he did last week against San Francisco. By being able to keep McAllister contained, Dallas might be able to get a lot pressure on Brees, which may force him into a mistake or two. The key is to play physical with the Saints receivers, especially if Colston plays on a bad ankle and veteran Joe Horn is battling a hamstring injury. Dallas must disrupt the Saints passing attack if the Cowboys are going to keep New Orleans contained.
When the Cowboys have the ball:
As well as the Saints have played offensively, they’ve played equally bad on defense. Terrible news hit the New Orleans locker room last week when the Saints found out that DT Hollis Thomas will have to serve a four-game suspension for steroid use. Thomas is appealing the suspension, but may drop it so he has enough time to come back for the playoffs in four weeks. Thomas was having a career year as the Saints’ main run-stuffer. Without him, north-south runner Marion Barber might get a ton of carries. Parcels loves both Barber and Julius Jones, but has given the bulk of the carries in the fourth quarter to Barber. The Saints will especially miss Thomas around the goal line as well as in short yardage situations. Linebackers Mark Simoneau and Scott Fujita are going to feel the pressure of not having the large body Thomas in front of them on rushing downs. With that said, Parcels would be smart to get a hat on those guys with his guards. Jones and Barber are both fast enough that the Dallas’ guards can make an initial block on the Saints down-linemen and then get to the linebackers to spring the backs for large gains. In the passing game, Romo has rejuvenated wide receiver Terrell Owens by looking to him early and often. Terry Glenn and Jason Whitten are hardly left out, however, and Romo is great at looking for them in soft spots in a defense’s zone coverages. Romo is also much better than former starter Drew Bledsoe at buying more time when feeling the rush. Last week in a win over the Giants, Romo escaped New York’s blitzes by sidestepping out of the pocket all the while keeping his eyes on his receivers downfield. The Saints will probably have to keep from blitzing too much and just rely on cornerbacks Fred Thomas and Mike McKenzie to keep Owens and Glenn in front of them. The philosophy for New Orleans might be a ‘bend but don’t break’ defense and hope the offense can create enough scoring opportunities to win the game.
Prediction:
I don’t trust the Saints defense one bit in this contest, especially without Hollis Thomas. I think both Jones and Barber can have big days running the ball and a Parcels’ team that can run is always dangerous. However, I also think that the Cowboys secondary can be had and Brees should be able to hit one of his weapons for big plays. What this game comes down to for me is what defense will be able to ward off the momentum-swinging plays. I don’t like how the Saints wide outs are going to limp into this game and I bet Dallas plays more physically than what New Orleans is used to.
This seems like a ‘last person to have the ball wins’ type of game: Cowboys 34, Saints 28.
Questions or comments on this game? Send them to astalter@bullz-eye.com.