Bullz-Eye's NFL Game of the Week
11/22/2006
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We’ll be dissecting one big NFL match-up every week throughout the season, whether it's a long-standing rivalry, a divisional clash or a game with playoff implications.
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This week’s match up: Chicago Bears at New England Patriots
Date: Sunday, Nov. 26
Time: 4:15pm ET, FOX
RESULT: New England 17, Chicago 13
Why to tune in:
The best reason to watch this game is the match up between Tom Brady and Chicago’s defense. Arguably the league’s best field general going head to head with one of the best defenses in the NFL is worth the price of admission. The Patriots, ironically, have played better on the road than in Gillette Stadium this year. The Bears are coming off two-straight road victories in the Meadowlands against the Giants and Jets. New England needs a win to keep pace in the stout AFC while Chicago seems to be running away with home playoff field advantage in the NFC.
When the Bears have the ball:
Chicago was held to only 10 points last week against the Jets after dismantling an injury-plagued Giants defense for 38 points a week earlier. Thomas Jones has finally hit his stride over the past four weeks. Other than a 69-yard effort against Miami at home in week nine, he’s rushed for more than 100 yards three out of the last four games. Thanks to Jones, the inconsistent play of quarterback Rex Grossman is taking a back seat. This game will be an interesting test for Grossman, because he hasn’t faced a 3-4 defense yet this year. Bill Belichick is the master at discovering an opponent’s weakness and exploiting it on Sundays. However, the Patriots, yet again, are extremely banged up. The secondary is completely dismantled with Rodney Harrison, Asante Samuel and Eugene Wilson all lost to injury. This has forced Belichick to reshuffle his lineup and, after back-to-back losses, New England shut out the Packers last week. Look for offensive coordinator Ron Turner to try and exploit the Patriots’ secondary with deep threats Mark Bradley and Bernard Berrian. While Muhsin Muhammad remains Grossman’s go-to guy, Bradley and Berrian are quickly becoming the receivers Grossman and Turner look to for a big play. Look for Belichick to design zone blitzes to try and disrupt Grossman’s timing. While Chicago’s line is one of the best in the league, Grossman has a tendency to throw off his back foot while being pressured, which leads to under throws and interceptions. If the Patriots can’t get to Grossman early and often, the Bears’ receivers have a huge edge over a banged up New England secondary.
When the Patriots have the ball:
As the season progresses, it’s apparent that Laurence Maroney is becoming the feature back in New England’s rushing attack. While the balance of Maroney and Corey Dillon has been solid, look for Maroney to see a lot of action against Chicago’s nasty front seven. The Bears don’t blitz a lot because they don’t have to. While linebacker Brian Urlacher is once again playing at a Pro Bowl level, the Bears’ defense has been weaker against the run lately. It seems that teams are able to get a guard on Urlacher and that is allowing backs to take the ball straight into the gut of Chicago’s defense and then bounce outside for big gains. The loss of safety Mike Brown is probably the main cause of this, but nevertheless, Maroney runs hard and might have a big day against Chicago’s defense. Brady has been inconsistent this season, but he had a great day last week, tossing four touchdowns against the Packers. Tight end Ben Watson has been his best receiver, but Brady is quickly developing a relationship with receivers Reche Caldwell and Doug Gabriel. If the Bears can’t stop the run, Belichick will essentially win the chess match and throw a variety of different looks at Chicago’s defense. A balanced Patriots offense is a killer to an opposing defense. Belichick loves to get the backs involved in the passing game and that might help keep Urlacher from playing sideline to sideline for the entire game.
Prediction:
With the Patriots playing so poorly at home this season and the secondary being so beat up, one has to like Chicago in this match up. As long as Grossman doesn’t hand the game over in the first half, I think eventually the Bears have enough horses to beat Belichick. Lovie Smith has done a fantastic job game planning this season in getting his team prepared for tough road environments.
I just can’t see Chicago’s receiving corps not winning the battle vs. New England’s thrashed secondary: Bears 24, Patriots 13.
Questions or comments on this game? Send them to astalter@bullz-eye.com.