Bullz-Eye's NFL Game of the Week
11/16/2006
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We’ll be dissecting one big NFL match-up every week throughout the season, whether it's a long-standing rivalry, a divisional clash or a game with playoff implications.
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This week’s match up: San Diego at Denver
Date: Sunday, Nov. 19
Time: 8:15pm ET, NBC
RESULT: Chargers 35, Broncos 27
Why to tune in:
The Chargers and Broncos come into this contest with identical 7-2 records. With Kansas City not far behind at 5-4, the AFC West crown is going to be won in these head-to-head battles. Denver swept the series last year on its way to an AFC Championship game appearance. San Diego would love to steal this road game before welcoming the Broncos to Qualcomm Stadium on December 10. The Chargers, however, haven’t won in Denver since 1999. Both teams run the ball well, ranking in the top five in the NFL, but the twist is both defenses are ranked in the top 10 against the run.
When the Chargers have the ball:
The Chargers’ O vs. the Broncos’ D will be the best match up in the NFL this weekend. The Broncos are always loaded to stop the run. Even the Denver secondary -- with John Lynch, Champ Bailey and Darrent Williams -- is equally solid against the run and will need to be again this week in facing LaDainian Tomlinson. Even though the Broncos’ run defense is excellent, don’t expect San Diego to get away from Tomlinson. The Chargers will most likely feed the hot hand in Philip Rivers, but only after setting up the pass with Tomlinson. San Diego doesn’t have that one receiver who requires a ton of attention, so look for Bailey to stay on one side of the field instead of shadowing a particular wide out. To neutralize Denver using eight-man fronts in trying to stop Tomlinson, watch for the Chargers to use a lot of three-receiver sets to try and get playmaker Antonio Gates into some favorable match ups. The Broncos have one of the best linebacker corps in the league and getting a healthy Ian Gold back this week from injury is only going to help. Defensive end Ebenezer Ekuban should also return to the lineup and will be needed against the run. The Broncos should have at least a margin of success in keeping Tomlinson contained, but they can’t sell out to stop LT, because Rivers is learning how to eat opponents up through the air.
When the Broncos have the ball:
What Jake Plummer will show up for this game? The one that conservatively yet efficiently led Denver to the AFC Championship game last year, or the error-prone quarterback that, at times, has cost the Broncos wins? Plummer didn’t play particularly well against Oakland last Sunday; while he had two touchdowns, he also threw two interceptions. It would obviously help Plummer if Denver could generate a decent running game like it did against the Colts a few weeks back. However, Tatum Bell isn’t healthy and can’t make quick cuts because of a toe injury. Mike Bell was excellent against Indy, but wasn’t that effective against Pittsburgh the following week. It might not matter who starts this Sunday because San Diego is excellent at stuffing the run. Jamal Williams is the key to everything up front for the Chargers. If Denver can’t get a few hats on him, Williams will once again swallow whichever back Mike Shanahan goes with this week. One of two things is going to happen when Denver has the ball: either San Diego stuffs the run and gets good pressure on Plummer, which forces Jake “the Snake” into a turnover machine, or the Chargers get no pressure on Plummer, which will leave the secondary exposed and allow Plummer to get the ball to Javon Walker downfield.
Prediction:
Lets say I’m right about the two likely scenarios listed above when Denver has the ball. The Chargers are missing Shawne Merriman, who is still serving a four-game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. Merriman has been the key to creating pressure for San Diego’s defense. Without him, I watched Carson Palmer destroy the Chargers’ secondary for 440 yards through the air last week.
Now, we all know that Plummer isn’t Palmer, but I have a gut feeling that he hits Walker once or twice for big plays and San Diego falls one more time at Mile High: Broncos 33, Chargers 28.
Questions or comments on this game? Send them to astalter@bullz-eye.com.