Bullz-Eye's College Football Game of the Week
10/26/2006
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We’ll be dissecting one big college football match-up every week throughout the season. The game could be a big rivalry, it could have Top-25 implications, or it could just be a battle between two powerhouse programs.
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This week’s match up: Georgia vs. (#9) Florida
Date: Saturday, Oct. 28
Time: 3:30pm ET on CBS
RESULT: Florida21, Georgia 14
Why to tune in:
Despite the attempts by the SEC and several deans at both schools to thwart partying by students, this is just a fun game for all people involved. The game has become less and less about the actual teams, however, and more about what to call the game. While the SEC wants the media to stop referring to this contest as “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party,” try telling the students not to enjoy this heated rivalry. The Gators need to keep up with a surging Tennessee in the SEC East. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, are just looking to save face in a season where Georgia has succumbed to the powerhouse that is Vanderbilt. A win over a better Florida team would go a long way in not only getting the Bullbogs back into the top 25, but also in building some confidence heading into next year.
When Georgia has the ball:
For the first time all season, the Bull Dogs had a quarterback play an entire game last Saturday. Freshman QB Matthew Stafford played well last week in going 20 of 32 for 267yards and two touchdowns. But nobody is going to confuse Mississippi State’s defense for Florida’s. With RB Thomas Brown suffering a season-ending knee injury two weeks ago, junior Kregg Lumpkin stepped in last week and ran for 80 yards on 15 carries. Lumpkin should see the bulk of the carries against the Gators this week, but with Florida only allowing opponents an average of just 67.7 yards on the ground, Lumpkin isn’t going to have anywhere to run. So, the onus is going to fall on Stafford to make enough plays offensively to keep the Bulldogs in the game. The good news for Stafford is that opponents have been able to throw on the Gators this year (Florida is giving up 199 yards a game). Watch for Georgia coach Mark Richt to throw the playbook at Florida in the passing game and let Stafford throw another 35-40 times. It might be Richt and the Bulldogs’ only counter to a better Florida team.
When Florida has the ball:
The Gators really needed that bye week after losing to Auburn. Before the loss to the Tigers, Florida had already played and beaten tough opponents in Tennessee, Alabama and LSU. Against Auburn, QB Chris Leak essentially gave the game way by turning the ball over down the stretch. Leak has played well all season, however, and the off week is only going to help him get focused again. Florida isn’t going to win this game through the air, though. Watch for the Gators to pound the ball on the ground, because quite frankly, the Bulldogs’ run defense has been shredded this year (131.4 yards a game). After an injury that held him out of the LSU game, RB DeShawn Wynn is healthy again, but he’ll still share the workload with fellow back Tim Tebow. One week after masterfully getting Tebow the ball against LSU, head coach Urban Meyer reined Tebow in against Auburn. He won’t make the same mistake twice; watch for Meyer to throw a nice offensive balance at Georgia with Wynn and Tebow leading the way. Leak probably won’t throw more than 20 to 25 passes in this contest, because Florida should have the horses to get the job down on the ground.
Prediction:
Along with most of the media, I feel Florida should out-and-out dismantle Georgia. Crowning the Gators as easy victors in a rivalry game is a scary thought, though, so my prediction might be closer than most pundits’. I’m even willing to bet that the Bulldogs get up a bit on the Gators and put a little pressure on Meyer’s crew. However, I also believe that the better team wins out in the end and I doubt Georgia can stop the run for four quarters. Plus, Florida’s defense is just way too stout and the Bulldogs have too many issues to prevail.
The Gators win the “How Naive Are People to Think the Students Aren’t Going to Drink?” game: Florida 27, Georgia 17.
Questions or comments? Send them to astalter@bullz-eye.com.