Bullz-Eye's College Football Game of the Week
10/05/2006
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We’ll be dissecting one big college football match-up every week throughout the season. The game could be a big rivalry, it could have Top-25 implications, or it could just be a battle between two powerhouse programs.
Want to get in on the action? Visit our College Football Live Lines page to compare the spread from four major handicappers before picking your winner. Good luck!
This week’s match up: (#9) LSU at (#5) Florida
Date: Saturday, Oct. 7
Time: 3:30pm ET CBS
RESULT: Florida 23, LSU 10
Why to tune in:
Finally, we’ve got more than one or two good games on the college football schedule this week. In fact, we’re looking at four games between ranked teams, but no match-up has greater implications than LSU vs. Florida. The Tigers come into the game 3-1, with their only loss coming at the hands of SEC rival Auburn. The Gators stayed undefeated after withstanding a tough challenge from Alabama last week and are in the driver’s seat in the SEC East at 3-0. Besides the obvious BCS ramifications of this game, LSU has to win this contest to keep pace with Auburn in the SEC West. If the Tigers expect to be in the SEC title game, beating the Gators in Gainesville is certainly a good start – although LSU does need Auburn to fall at some point during the season for an SEC Championship to become a reality.
When LSU has the ball:
The Tigers own the 26th-ranked offense in the NCAA, but it’s no secret what (and who, for that matter) LSU relies on. QB JaMarcus Russell is second in the nation in passer efficiency and thus far as been nothing short of phenomenal for LSU this season, throwing for 1,246 yards and 10 touchdowns, and HC Les Miles isn’t afraid to put the bulk of the work on Russell’s shoulders. Charles Scott and Devin Hester have gotten the bulk of the carries for the Tigers in the run game and while each back is at or over 4.5 yards a carry, the rushing attack hasn’t exactly been explosive. LSU is going to have to rely on Russell again in this contest, because Florida doesn’t give up anything on the ground on defense. Opponents are barely cracking 50 yards a game on the Gator defense and, compounding the issue, nobody can throw on Florida either. Junior DB Reggie Nelson has four interceptions on the season and seems to play at his best when facing top opponents. Nelson picked off Tennessee QB Erik Ainge twice in the Gators’ 21-20 victory over the Vols last month. Although Russell has only thrown one interception this season, if he doesn’t get much support in the run game he may try to force the issue, and that could lead to a big turnover or two.
When Florida has the ball:
As much as the Tigers have relied on Russell to carry them through games, the Gators have relied an equal or greater amount on QB Chris Leak. Leak ranks only seven spots behind Russell in total passer efficiency and has virtually the same number of yards (1,240) with four more touchdowns (14). What Leak has done late in contests to win games for Florida has been tremendous. With the Gators down six points and facing a key third down late in the game against Tennessee last month, Leak took to the ground and moved the chains for a big first down. A couple of plays later, Leak threw the game-winning touchdown pass and lifted the Gators to a 21-20 victory over the Vols in Knoxville. Much like Russell, Leak has a huge task in going against the number-one rated defense in all of college football. As hard as it is to crack Florida’s defense, LSU’s D is virtually impenetrable. The Tigers are only allowing 73 yards a game through the air, which is just silly when you think about it. LSU also has a junior DB that has a knack for finding the ball in Craig Steltz, who has an interception in each of the Tigers’ last four games. Leak and the Florida offense are used to putting up 270-plus yards a game through the air, but Steltz and company are going to have something to say about that come game time on Saturday.
Prediction:
I’ll get right into this – I like LSU. Here’s why: Florida has been able to rely on a great balanced attack throughout the season with Leak and RB DeShawn Wynn (64 carries, 354 yards, three TDs). However, Wynn sprained his knee in the Alabama game last week and might not even play on Saturday. If he can’t go, LSU is going to have no problem shutting down the Gators’ ground attack and leaving Florida one-dimensional. That will make Leak vulnerable and LSU is already stout against the pass. The key to a Tigers victory, however, is whether or not Scott and Hester can give LSU enough in the run game to set up Russell to pass. One of the other reasons I really like the Tigers in this game is because, quite frankly, they have owned Florida as of late. The last time Florida was knocked off in Gainesville was in 2004, to guess whom? LSU has won three of the past four meetings and the Gators haven’t started a season 6-0 since 1996.
Give me the Tigers and Russell over Leak and a banged up Wynn: LSU 27, Florida 14.