Bullz-Eye's College Football Game of the Week
09/28/2006
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We’ll be dissecting one big college football match-up every week throughout the season. The game could be a big rivalry, it could have Top-25 implications, or it could just be a battle between two powerhouse programs.
Want to get in on the action? Visit our College Football Live Lines page to compare the spread from four major handicappers before picking your winner. Good luck!
This week’s match up: (#1) Ohio State at (#13) Iowa
Date: Saturday, Sept. 30
Time: 8:00pm ET ABC
RESULT: OSU 38, Iowa 17
Why to tune in:
It usually is feast or famine when these two teams hook up. Two years ago in Iowa City, the Hawkeyes blew out OSU 33-7. Last year in Columbus, the Buckeyes avenged the loss and handed Iowa a 31-6 beat down. With how early this Big Ten match-up is this year, however, this should be a closer contest than the last two games played between these two programs. Both teams match up well, at least on paper, with the edge going to OSU on offense and Iowa on defense. Many believe that one, if not both, powerhouses in the Big Ten this season – Ohio State and Michigan – will have at least one blemish on its record before facing each other at the end of the year. Furthermore, the Hawkeyes have been favored to issue an L in the loss column to one of those programs, so will Ohio State fall victim on the road this weekend and shake up the BCS rankings?
When Ohio State has the ball:
The Buckeyes had their hands full last week at home against Penn State before the defense took back two interceptions for touchdowns to seal the victory. The offense only put up 14 points, which was the first time all season that Ohio State struggled to light up the scoreboard. The Buckeyes’ strength is in their passing game, led by QB Troy Smith, and even though he was held in check last week, WR Ted Ginn Jr. is OSU’s most explosive weapon. What shouldn’t be overlooked, however, is the emergence of Smith’s other target, WR Anthony Gonzalez. With much attention paid to Ginn, Gonzalez is getting a ton of looks in the passing game by finding soft spots in the defense and making tough catches in traffic. Both Ginn and Gonzalez better be on their game, because Iowa has played exceptionally well against the pass this season. Defensive back Adam Shada picked off two passes in the Hawkeyes’ victory over Illinois last week. Shada and CB Charles Godfrey have had a lot of success due in large part to the defensive front four being able to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Even with the amount of success Iowa has had against the pass, look for OSU to try and score quickly on Iowa through the air, because the Hawkeyes are struggling to put points on the board early in games. Then, after the Buckeyes have established a decent lead, watch for RB Antonio Pittman to close the door in the second half.
When Iowa has the ball:
As stated above, the Hawkeyes are really struggling to establish a rhythm on offense at the start of games. In a game of this magnitude and especially being at home, Iowa is going to have to find a way to generate points against the top-rated team in the nation. QB Drew Tate is going to need time against a young, but skilled front seven of OSU and needs one of his playmakers to assert himself in the passing game. Tailback Albert Young and tight end Scott Chandler have been Tate’s primary targets and not having a top wide out to depend on won’t fly against OSU. Led by LB James Larurinaitis and a bevy of talented defensive linemen, the Buckeyes are sure tacklers and won’t let the underneath stuff kill them. CB Malcolm Jenkins is tough to throw on and if OSU has continued success defending the pass (the Buckeyes are yielding just 108 yards a game through the air), Iowa is going to be in a heap of trouble. One way that opponents have had a margin of success against OSU, however, has been on the ground. The Buckeyes are giving up an average of 115 yards a game on the ground. Iowa can run the football and loves to use a combination of Young and fellow back Damian Sims. Unlike OSU, who I expect to try and put points on the board early, watch for Iowa to try and control the clock and eek out yards on the ground while keeping that potent Buckeye offense off the field.
Prediction:
While I think Iowa has enough talent to be ranked #12 and to certainly knock off one of the big boys, I really don’t think it’s going to come against Ohio State. The Hawkeyes are beat up on both sides of the ball, especially on their offensive line with center Rafael Eubanks (knee) and offensive tackle Dace Richardson (knee) both suffering injuries against the Illini last Saturday. Both are expected to play, but with Quinn Pitcock and Vernon Gholston having so much success getting to the quarterback so far this season, I think the Hawkeye O-line has too much to contest with. I don’t expect Smith to light it up against Iowa’s secondary, but I do expect the Hawkeyes to fall behind sometime in the second half and allow Pittman to shut the door on any comeback. Plus, Iowa has really struggled against top-ranked opponents (0-7-1 lifetime against the cream of the crop).
The Buckeyes have already shown what they can do going into prime time match-ups on the road, so I don’t expect a hiccup in Iowa City: Ohio State 31, Iowa 21.
Questions or comments? Send them to astalter@bullz-eye.com.