Bullz-Eye's College Football Game of the Week
09/14/2006
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ALSO: Check out Anthony's College Football Preview. Have a different opinion on this week's game? Be heard at The Scores Report, the National Sports Blog.
We’ll be dissecting one big college football match-up every week throughout the season. The game could be a big rivalry, it could have Top-25 implications, or it could just be a battle between two powerhouse programs.
Want to get in on the action? Visit our College Football Live Lines page to compare the spread from four major handicappers before picking your winner. Good luck!
This week’s match up: (#6) LSU at (#3) Auburn
Date: Saturday, Sept. 16
Time: 3:30pm ET on CBS
RESULT: Auburn 7, LSU 3
Why to tune in:
No disrespect to the big clash between (#11) Michigan and (#2) Notre Dame this weekend (give me the Fighting Irish 30-24, by the way), but we’re talking #3 vs. #6 here, folks. This is the first time since 1972 that Auburn and LSU both head into this game ranked in the top 10. The home team has won the last six meetings and Auburn’s Kenny Irons ran for a career-high 218 yards last year, which was the most by an individual against LSU since 1996. Need more reasons to watch? The last two meetings in this series have been decided by a total of four points and the winner of five of the last six meetings has gone on to play for the SEC title.
When LSU has the ball:
LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell has thrown five touchdowns in two games and his completion percentage is right at 70%. Russell does a nice job of spreading the ball around to his two senior receivers, Dwayne Bowe and Craig Davis. In the running game, LSU likes to use a two-back system with junior Alley Broussard and freshman Charles Scott. Broussard is a powerful runner, but he’s coming off an ACL injury so the emergence of Scott is key for LSU not only in this contest but throughout the season as well. Defensively, Auburn will rely on the cocky but talented cornerback David Irons to limit Bowe’s effectiveness. Auburn has two guys that can really get to the quarterback in defensive end Quentin Groves and tackle Sen’ Derrick Marks. Both have two sacks in two games.
When Auburn has the ball:
With the amount of success Irons had against LSU last year and his 6.1 YPC average on the ground this season, Auburn is going to try and win this game on the ground. One problem with that philosophy is that LSU has the top-rated run defense in the SEC. Auburn quarterback Brandon Cox struggled against LSU last year while completing just 16 of 40 passes. Cornerback Jonathan Zenon has returned an interception for a score in both of LSU’s games this season and the team has yielded an average of just 164 total yards, the third-best mark in the nation. If Auburn can’t get Irons going on Saturday, LSU’s defense will pressure Cox and may force a key turnover or two. Auburn will counter with receivers Courtney Taylor and Rodgeriqus Smith in the passing game. Taylor is a steady playmaker and a tall target for Cox, while Smith is the team’s home run hitter.
Prediction:
Auburn is tough to throw against, but they can be had on the ground if the combination of Broussard and Scott can get going. On offense, LSU is a scoring machine, but I expect them to throw a balanced attack at Auburn and try to wear down its defense by managing the clock effectively and taking care of the ball. LSU is second in the nation in pass defense, so if they can keep Kenny Irons in check (unlike last year), they can force Auburn to throw more than they’d like. I bet Auburn gets down early, which will neutralize Irons and place the game on Cox’s shoulders. That’d be bad news for Auburn.
I’ll buck the home trend – give me the underdog: LSU 24, Auburn 16.
Questions or comments? Send them to astalter@bullz-eye.com.