Bullz-Eye's College Football Game of the Week
11/16/2006
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We’ll be dissecting one big college football match-up every week throughout the season. The game could be a big rivalry, it could have Top-25 implications, or it could just be a battle between two powerhouse programs.
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This week’s match up: (#6) Notre Dame at (#3) USC
Date: Saturday, Nov 25
Time: 8:00pm ET ABC
RESULT: USC 44, Notre Dame 24
Why to tune in:
No other game on this week’s college football schedule has more BCS implications than Notre Dame-USC. Both of these rivals each have one loss apiece and are vying for the opportunity to play Ohio State in the national championship game. USC has sort of become the wild card in the BCS race. The Trojans have become the popular vote and seem to carry a ‘win and you’re in’ feeling about them. A win over ND will go a long way to providing enough ammunition to get to the title match. The Irish, on the other hand, have a higher hill to climb with Michigan still sitting at No. 2 in the rankings. Notre Dame lost to the Wolverines earlier in the year and even if the Irish win out, Michigan should still have the tie-breaking edge. Then again, this is the BCS, where anything can happen.
When Notre Dame has the ball:
The Irish have something now that they didn’t have earlier in the season and that’s a balanced offensive attack. In Notre Dame’s first seven games, tailback Darius Walker rushed for more than 100 yards just twice. In his last four contests, Walker has topped the century mark three times, including 153 and 162 against Air Force and Army, respectively. With Walker running as well as he has, Charlie Weis hasn’t had to rely solely on quarterback Brady Quinn. Weis is limited in his game plan without a decent output from Walker, because it allows opponents to bring pressure on Quinn. The Heisman hopeful quarterback has shown at times this year that if you can get enough pressure on him, he falters. Quinn is likely to go off and throw for four touchdowns, but he’s just as prone to make a mistake while facing heat. USC can bring the pressure and is decent enough against the run to try and contain Walker without bringing their safeties up in support. Look for the Trojans to limit Walker with just their front seven and not allow themselves to get burned deep by wide outs Jeff Samardzija and Rhema McKnight. The key for USC on defense is getting pressure on Quinn and keeping Walker from shredding the unit for big gains. If not, Notre Dame has enough offensive firepower to succeed in a shootout.
When USC has the ball:
Much like Notre Dame, the Trojans have plenty of weapons on offense and can beat you in a multitude of ways. USC loves to balance the carries between backs Chauncey Washington and Emmanuel Moody; however, Moody is out with an ankle injury and Washington rushed for just 29 yards on 12 carries against California, so expect freshman C.J. Gable to get the bulk of the carries this week. Gable tallied 91 yards on 19 carries last weekend and should have a decent day against an Irish defense that’s giving up 120-plus yards on the ground this season. Even though USC would love to outshoot ND, Pete Carroll is going to have to stay balanced. The Irish have a solid secondary and the Trojans will fall if they become too one-dimensional. John David Booty is having a superb season and his success goes hand-in-hand with the play of wide outs Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett. Jarrett is battling a concussion, but will play. Booty would benefit from staying away from Terrail Lambert. Other than being burned by Michigan’s Mario Manningham, Lambert has had a solid season and fellow DB Chinedum Ndukwe has been decent as well. Look for Carroll to try to establish the run game and get the Irish to commit their safeties to the run. As well as ND’s secondary has played this season, it would be hard for the Irish to play man-to-man on Smith and Jarrett. Watch for Gable to see a lot of action in USC’s first couple possessions so Carroll can later set up the vertical passing game.
Prediction:
While I think Notre Dame has enough weapons to contend with USC, the Irish defense hasn’t been tested since Michigan and Michigan State. When ND was tested in both of those contests, the Wolverines and Spartans were able to hit the Irish for big plays. I expect Carroll and the Trojans to do the same after first establishing a run game. This is one of those games where I think the Irish will need a big turnover or two early to take away USC’s swagger or else they’ll fall behind and stay behind.
The Trojans have won four straight, including the last two at home. Make that three straight at home: USC 44, Notre Dame 35.
Questions or comments? Send them to astalter@bullz-eye.com.