Bullz-Eye's College Football Game of the Week
11/16/2006
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We’ll be dissecting one big college football match-up every week throughout the season. The game could be a big rivalry, it could have Top-25 implications, or it could just be a battle between two powerhouse programs.
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This week’s match up: (#2) Michigan at (#1) Ohio State
Date: Saturday, Nov. 18
Time: 3:30pm ET on ABC
RESULT: Ohio State 42, Michigan 39
Why to tune in:
There are enough storylines in this game to fill an encyclopedia. Not only is the cherished Big Ten title on the line, but also prized possession of a guaranteed trip to the national title game. Even the loser of this contest might still have a shot at a national championship appearance, depending on results of other programs. This contest is being hyped as the Buckeye offense vs. the Wolverine defense. However, the OSU defense ranks first in points allowed while Michigan’s run game is averaging close to 200 yards per game. A Heisman Trophy could also be on the line for OSU senior quarterback Troy Smith and possibly even Michigan tailback Mike Hart. And if all of that doesn’t get you to tune in, this also is the best college football rivalry in the nation. Period. If these two programs were winless, it would still be a Game of the Week qualifier.
When Michigan has the ball:
More than in years past, the Wolverines have found some success through the air this season. Don’t expect Michigan to air it out against Ohio State, however. The Wolverines have always lived and died by their run game and this Saturday should be no different. While the Buckeyes have cleaned up the run defense over the course of the season, OSU hasn’t faced a top runner like Hart since Garrett Wolfe of Northern Illinois rushed for 187 yards in the opener. In order for the Buckeyes to keep Hart contained, they’ll have to play excellent gap-control defense. Hart is a hard runner who won’t dance and loves to make one cut before quickly getting up field. NFL-bound Quinn Pitcock and David Patterson are going to have to be extremely disciplined from their defensive tackle positions and not allow Michigan’s offensive line to get a good push up field. While quarterback Chad Henne has had a productive year, he still is only completing 62% of his passes and has recently started to force throws to stud wide out Mario Manningham. Manningham is still battling a midseason injury and if Henne becomes too reliant on his star receiver, the OSU defense will pick him apart. The Buckeyes rely on turnovers to change the momentum of the game and use field position to scheme against opposing offenses. OSU’s secondary is one of the best in the nation and one of its strengths is that linebackers James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman are so strong in coverage. Laurinaitis has five picks on the year because he sits so well in zone coverage. On the outside, Malcolm Jenkins is quickly becoming one of the best corners in the nation and will have an excellent battle with Manningham. Look for OSU to roll free safety Brandon Mitchell over the top on Manningham to help Jenkins and try to force Steve Breaston (who has been inconsistent as a receiver) to beat them on the other side. If Michigan can’t spread OSU’s defense out with multiple receiver sets and get Mitchell out of position, Manningham might be rendered useless.
When Ohio State has the ball:
What makes the Buckeyes so potent offensively is the multiple ways they can beat you. Jim Tressel can run his offense out of the power-I, spread or shotgun formations and really put pressure on an opposing defense. While running back Antonio Pittman has been the backbone of the Buckeyes offense, Smith is going to have to be the x-factor. Smith is having a tremendous season and has transformed from a run-first quarterback to someone who is patient in the pocket. More than ever, Smith is progressing in his reads and is seeing the entire field well. His 26 touchdowns to only four interceptions also prove that he’s not making many mistakes with the football. Michigan is going to keep Pittman contained for the most part. The Wolverines are allowing an astonishingly low 29.9 yards a game on the ground. While OSU will have to keep Michigan honest by running Pittman out of traditional sets, Tressel is going to have to spread the Wolverines out with three or four wide receiver formations to give Pittman more running lanes. While Manningham vs. Jenkins should be great, Leon Hall vs. Ted Ginn Jr. will be the biggest battle of the day. Ginn is an explosive playmaker and while Hall has been solid this year, he hasn’t faced a receiver with Ginn’s skills yet. The Wolverines can’t double Ginn either, because as most teams have found out the hard way, Anthony Gonzalez can burn them on the other side. Look for Michigan to allow Hall to play man-to-man on Ginn and take its chances of Ginn making a huge play or two. If the Wolverines try and play a zone, OSU might be able to establish long, clock-eating drives that either create points, field position opportunities or keep Hart on the sidelines. Another option for Michigan is to use its athletic linebackers in LaMarr Woodley and Prescott Burgess to take away underneath routes for Ginn and Gonzalez. That would allow the Wolverines to play a deep-quarters coverage and limit big plays. Doing tha,t however, could take away from the Wolverines’ stout run defense and it puts a lot of pressure on Burgess and Woodley to make quick decisions. Plus, Burgess is battling an ankle injury, so that might not be Michigan’s best option.
Prediction:
Throw out the records, home field advantage and every other intangible that usually matters in a football game. This is a rivalry, so the players and coaches don’t need any extra motivation. I think this game is going to come down to the simple things: turnovers, penalties and playmakers. To me, the key is Smith. While the Heisman hopeful has had great success this year in the pocket, Tressel would be wise to allow the quarterback to use his legs. Michigan, as evidenced by the 2005 Rose Bowl loss to Vince Young and Texas, is incredibly susceptible to mobile quarterbacks. While I think Smith can beat the Wolverines from the pocket, I bet at some point he’s going to have to strike a balance between using his arm and legs to win this contest. If not, Michigan may make the necessary adjustments during the game to halt Ohio State’s passing attack and neutralize the Buckeyes offense.
This is the hardest prediction of the year, but I bet Smith does what he has to do and uses this game as a backdrop to win the Heisman: Ohio State 17, Michigan 13.
Questions or comments? Send them to astalter@bullz-eye.com.