Bullz-Eye's College Football Game of the Week
11/08/2006
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We’ll be dissecting one big college football match-up every week throughout the season. The game could be a big rivalry, it could have Top-25 implications, or it could just be a battle between two powerhouse programs.
Want to get in on the action? Visit our College Football Live Lines page to compare the spread from four major handicappers before picking your winner. Good luck!
This week’s match up: (#3) Louisville at. (#15) Rutgers
Date: Thursday, Nov. 9
Time: 7:30pm ET on ESPN
RESULT: Rutgers 28, Louisville 25
Why to tune in:
The battle for Big East supremacy is once again on display in this week’s Game of the Week. After topping West Virginia 44-34 last Thursday, Louisville moved up two spots in the AP Top 25 poll to #3. Rutgers is quite the feel good story of the NCAA season while coming seemingly out of nowhere to become the 15th-ranked team in the nation. If Louisville can knock off Rutgers, the Cardinals will have the inside track to playing for a National Championship against the Ohio State-Michigan winner. The Scarlet Knights would have to knock off Louisville and probably beat West Virginia at the end of the year to even have a shot at playing in the title game. The Cardinals rank second in the NCAA in total yards per game while the Scarlet Knights are second in the nation in total defense. Rutgers has not played a home game against Louisville since 1984.
When Louisville has the ball:
Brian Brohm played possibly the game of his collegiate career against the Mountaineers last week, throwing for 354 yards and a touchdown on 19 of 26 passing. What the Cardinals do so well on offense is set up the run with the pass or the pass with the run. Whichever look the defense gives head coach Bobby Petrino, he can use it against the opposition and go the other way with it. Both Kolby Smith and George Stripling have given the Cardinals a solid rushing attack since stud tailback Michael Bush was lost for the season in Louisville’s opener. Wide outs Harry Douglas and Mario Urrutia were outstanding in finding holes in West Virginia’s defense and will be counted on again against a tough Scarlet Knights secondary. Rutgers ranks fourth against the pass and are led by defensive back Courtney Greene, who has three interceptions on the year. The Scarlet Knights are fast in the secondary with Derrick Roberson, who runs a 4.4 40, but Rutgers losses size against a very physical Cardinal wide receivers corp. If anything, the Scarlet Knights are going to have to tighten up and play man-to-man, because Louisville’s receivers will eat zone coverage alive.
When Rutgers has the ball:
Heisman hopeful Ray Rice has been amazing this year for Rutgers. He ranks third out of all NCAA tailbacks with 1,229 rushing yards, and is a small but shifty back who could give Louisville’s defense fits. Rice often gets lost behind his offensive line and then all of a sudden flashes into the secondary and breaks off long runs. Look for Rice to have major success against a Cardinals defense that yielded 318 yards on the ground last week to WV’s Pat White and Steve Slaton. The only problem offensively with the Scarlet Knights is that they don’t throw the ball that much. Rutgers is averaging just 128 yards a game through the air and can get too one-dimensional at times. The Cardinals pass defense is without a doubt its strong suit, but that’s usually because the opposing team finds its success against the belly of Louisville’s run defense.
Prediction:
I couldn’t have been more wrong about West Virginia being the better team in last week’s Big East showdown. Although, if I would have known the Mountaineers were going to leave their defense and secondary on the bus, I would have gone with Louisville. It’s hard to go against a team like Rutgers, who seem to have everything going for it right now. The biggest key is going to be how well the Scarlet Knights can defend Louisville’s potent offensive attack, because if last week was any true indication of how Louisville defends the run, Ray Rice will probably be all Rutgers will need on offense.
Call me a sucker for falling for the underdog or just call me a sucker for going against Louisville twice in two weeks, but give me the Scarlet Knights, who will be playing on their biggest national stage in years: Rutgers 37, Louisville 34 in overtime.
Questions or comments? Send them to astalter@bullz-eye.com.