Bullz-Eye's College Football Game of the Week
11/01/2006
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We’ll be dissecting one big college football match-up every week throughout the season. The game could be a big rivalry, it could have Top-25 implications, or it could just be a battle between two powerhouse programs.
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This week’s match up: (#3) West Virginia at. (#5) Louisville
Date: Thursday, Nov. 2
Time: 7:30pm ET on ESPN
RESULT: Louisville 44, West Virginia 34
Why to tune in:
When #3 West Virginia takes on #5 Louisville at Papa John’s Stadium Thursday night, it will be just the second time in the history of the Big East Conference that a pair of top-five teams will meet. Not since #3 Miami defeated second ranked Virginia Tech 41-21 in 2000 has the Big East seen a bigger match up. Nothing, however, will be greater to the two teams involved than what this contest means to the Mountaineers’ and Cardinals’ National Championship hopes. A win could go a long way for both teams’ chances of possibly squaring off against the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game (Nov. 18) for a national title. Conversely, the loser will be eliminated from national title considerations and will likely be bounced from the top 10.
When West Virginia has the ball:
The Mountaineers (much like the Cardinals) are explosive offensively. Led by two sophomores, QB Pat White and RB Steve Slaton, WVU averages 40.9 points per game and 319 yards on the ground. White and Slaton have perfected the shotgun option where White has to read the opposing teams’ defensive end in order to decide what the offense’s next move is. If the defensive end crashes down inside to cut off Slaton’s running lanes, White will bounce outside of the defense for long gains along the sideline. If the defensive end stays outside to protect the sideline, White will simply hand the ball off to Slaton and allow the back to run the ball up the gut of the defense’s front seven. Not that it will be an easy task, but if any team is up to the challenge of defending the shotgun option, Louisville is. The Cardinals are giving up a paltry 79 yards on the ground and are extremely disciplined. Louisville commits its linebackers and safeties to the run, which puts pressure on the Cardinal secondary to make plays on an island. However, the Mountaineers are a run-first, throw-later offense and probably won’t take advantage of Louisville’s questionable secondary.
When Louisville has the ball:
Even without its star back, Michael Bush, and its quarterback for several games, Brian Brohm, Louisville has been able to average 38 points a game this season. The one thing the Cardinals have offensively over the Mountaineers is a balanced attack. The Cardinals can run the ball just as effectively as they can throw. The combination of Kolby Smith and George Stripling at running back, while filling in for the injured Bush, has been fantastic. Both backs are averaging better than 5.5 yards per carry and have combined for 11 touchdowns on the season. Making matters worse for a defense that focuses just on Smith and Stripling, receivers Harry Douglas and Mario Urrutia can burn you on the outsides. West Virginia’s strength on defense is not committing itself to either the run or the pass. The Mountaineers mix up their blitz and coverage schemes to keep the opposing offense off balance and have also averaged at least one turnover a game. The Mountaineers are going to have to watch their blitzes on Brohm, however, because the Cardinals will be one play-action pass away from a huge scoring play.
Prediction:
Stats wise, this game should be phenomenal. While both offenses can score at will, both defenses allow just over 12 points per game. I can’t see either team having a decided edge over the other on either side of the ball. I’m willing to bet, however, that the defenses will be thrown out the window once this contest gets going and it will be without a doubt a high scoring affair. Something tells me that this game will be sloppy and a “whoever has the ball last” contest. Tough game to predict, but this is where you just go with who you think the better team is.
For me, it’s West Virginia. I just think White and Slaton are too explosive to keep hemmed-in for four quarters: West Virginia 38, Louisville 34.
Questions or comments? Send them to astalter@bullz-eye.com.