10 hazy thoughts about week 3 and beyond
09/28/2007
Paulsen Home / Sports Channel / Bullz-Eye Home
Last Saturday night, I got food poisoning from some day-old Chinese. For those who have never had the misfortune, you basically alternate between vomiting and diarrhea for six hours. It was the worst night of my life. It got me thinking about other horrible nights in my life. There was that night that I spent camping after a day of canoeing with friends in Northern Arkansas. (Don’t worry, I’m not about to outline the plot of “Deliverance.”) I’m far from an outdoorsy guy, so I asked my buddy what I needed to bring. He said, “Bring a blanket.” So there I am, in the backwoods of Arkansas, wide awake at 3 AM in freezing temperatures, shivering my ass off, hoping and praying that I would make it to sunrise, which was still a good three hours off. I couldn’t keep my teeth from chattering and all I had was a crappy blanket to keep me warm. Saturday night was worse than that night in Arkansas.
I wouldn’t wish food poisoning on my worst enemy. Well, maybe I would. They are my worst enemy, after all. Actually, I wouldn’t wish food poisoning on my worst enemy as long as they knew that I could have wished it on them, but I chose not to. They must know that I am merciful.
Anyway, I told you all that to tell you this: I’m still a little scatterbrained. I watched Sunday’s games in a haze so instead of one of my (somewhat) concise, to-the-point columns, I’m going to fire off some random thoughts that managed to stick in my poisoned system this weekend.
1. My beloved Packers almost blew a win.
Down 21-17 with less than eight minutes to play from the San Diego 10-yard line, Brett Favre threw a pass to Donald Lee who was apparently stopped just short of the goal line. Phil Simms kept saying that Lee’s elbow was down at the one, but it looked from the replay that the defender who dove at Lee’s feet never made contact, which would have meant that Lee scored on the play. Regardless, the Packers had a first-and-goal at the 1. Here is the play-by-play from the next four downs:
1-1-SD 1 (7:09) PENALTY on GB-62-J.Coston, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SD 1 - No Play.
1-6-SD 6 (7:09) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short right to 32-B.Jackson.
2-6-SD 6 (7:05) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre sacked at SD 7 for -1 yards (95-S.Phillips).
3-7-SD 7 (6:32) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 89-J.Jones to SD 1 for 6 yards.
4-1-SD 1 (5:51) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short middle to 88-B.Franks (95-S.Phillips).
That’s pretty pathetic. Moreover, on that fourth-and-goal play, the Packers didn’t even have a running back in the backfield, so there was absolutely no threat of a run. The Packers defense got a stop on the Chargers’ next possession, and by now I’m sure everyone has seen the Favre-to-Greg Jennings go-ahead TD that also tied Favre with Dan Marino’s career TD record (420). Speaking of Jennings, he looks like he’s back. The announcers were comparing rookie James Jones to Sterling Sharpe, but I think both he and Jennings play a lot like Donald Driver. If they can all stay healthy, that’s a pretty nice receiving corps for Favre to throw to. The team is going to need to assemble some sort of running game if they want to contend in the NFC. On Sunday, the Packers called 47 pass plays and only 11 rushes. Yeesh.
2. Marion Barber is a stud.
It’s taken me a while to get on the Barber bandwagon, mostly because Julius Jones is still in Dallas. Through three games, Barber is averaging 100 total yards and 1.7 TD, which puts him on pace to gain 1600 total yards and to score 27 times. Fantasy owners everywhere would like to see Julius Jones traded to a team lacking in RB talent (i.e. the Packers or the Titans), but the two-back system has worked for the Cowboys, so why mess with it? Clearly, Barber is the guy to own in fantasy leagues and is a must-start RB2.
3. Rex Grossman won’t be in Chicago for long.
It’s not often that you can say something like that about a guy who quarterbacked his team to the Super Bowl in the previous season, but Rexy has been brutal thus far in 2007, averaging just 167 yards passing while throwing one TD versus six interceptions. That works out to a 45.2 QB rating. He wasn’t spectacular in 2006 (73.9), but he did just enough to offset his mistakes and allow the Bears’ defense to win games. The team has decided to start Brian Griese this week, but it’s clear that he’s not the long-term answer at QB. Grossman’s contract is up after this season, and unless he turns his season around quickly, he won’t be in Chicago next fall.
4. Kurt Warner can still play…occasionally.
Matt Leinart has struggled this season, and when the Cardinals were down by three scores in the second half, head coach Ken Whisenhunt decided to make the switch to Warner, who apparently has a better grasp of the team’s hurry-up offense. After the game, Whisenhunt said that Leinart is still the team’s starting QB but that he may opt to go with Warner if the Cardinals fall way behind. It’s an interesting quandary. By inserting Warner, Whisenhunt gave his team what he believes to be a much better chance to win, but one wonders how much damage this does to the psyche of his young QB. Luckily for Leinart, everyone knows that Kurt Warner is not the future in Arizona. But this slow start is raising questions about Leinart’s upside as well. With Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Edgerrin James, he has no excuses. He’s still in his second year, so patience is needed, but the Cardinals have to be a little concerned.
5. Tom Brady might be better than we thought.
Forget the three Super Bowl wins. 2007 could be Tom Brady’s best year, statistically speaking. After three games, he is on pace to throw for 4730 yards and 53 TD, and would break Peyton Manning’s single-season TD record in the process. After years of mediocre WRs to throw to, the team traded for Randy Moss (22 catches, 403 yards and 5 TD) and Wes Welker (20 catches, 221 yards and 1 TD) to give Brady a couple of legitimate weapons in the passing game. On one hand, it’s nice to see Moss making the most of his talent, but on the other, I’m not sure the selfish, lackadaisical Moss we saw in 2006 deserves to play for the 2007 Patriots. Regardless, with a good running game and a very good defense, this team is frightening and appears to be the class of the league.
6. Ronnie Brown is a feature back.
Jesse Chatman wasn’t listed on the injury report before Sunday’s game, yet he didn’t register a carry or a catch against the Jets. Instead, the entire RB1 role was handed to Ronnie Brown, who turned 29 touches into 211 total yards and three TD. Is this a sign of great things to come from Brown? Or will Chatman be back next week to vulture touches? Only Cam Cameron knows for sure.
7. Ailing? Bring the Lions in.
People were quick to write Donovan McNabb and the Eagles off after the first two games. True, they looked lethargic against the Packers and Redskins, but two weeks later, it seems like the Packers are for real and the Redskins have enough talent to beat any NFC team on a given night. Enter the Detroit Lions, who have a defense that will cure anyone’s woes. The Eagles racked up 536 total yards and McNabb threw four TDs, which should be enough to quiet those who are calling for his head, at least for now. From a fantasy standpoint, it’s time to seriously consider Kevin Curtis as a WR3/flex starter. Philly WRs are notoriously inconsistent, but his huge day (221 yards, 3 TD) can’t be ignored.
8. Jacksonville is for real.
Granted, with Maurice Jones-Drew struggling, the Jags don’t have a legitimate fantasy starter on the roster, but they went into Denver and throttled the Broncos. In week 1, the Jags gave up 282 yards on the ground to the Titans, but only allowed 47 yards to the Broncos, who have one of the best running games in the league. With Kansas City and Houston up next, the Jags could be 4-1 heading into their 10/22 showdown against the Colts in Jacksonville.
9. LaMont Jordan will be the RB1 in Oakland all season (if he stays healthy).
Forget all the preseason talk about Dominic Rhodes. Once he comes back from his suspension, he’ll take over Justin Fargas’ role, which will get him 8-10 touches a game. Jordan will still be the main guy as long as he stays upright. He’s averaging 157 total yards, 5.1 yards per carry and has scored twice. You can’t bench a guy that is second in the league in rushing, can you? After such a strong start, I just can’t see the Raiders going to a committee, but you never know. It is Oakland we’re talking about.
10. Jason Witten is good. Patrick Crayton isn’t.
Here’s what’s happening in Dallas. With Terry Glenn out, there are lots of available targets in the passing game. The team expected Patrick Crayton to step in and pick up where Glenn left off, but he’s been (at best) mediocre thus far. (Did you see the dropped pass in the endzone against Chicago? Ugh.) So most of Glenn’s action is going to Jason Witten, who has turned into a terrific value for those who waited until the eighth or ninth round to draft a TE. I’ve been a Crayton supporter all year, but I’m starting to grow weary of the drops. He better get his act together or he’ll eventually lose snaps to Sam Hurd.
Send questions and comments to jpaulsen@bullz-eye.com.