2008 Fantasy Football Preview: Tight Ends
08/11/2008
Sports Channel / Bullz-Eye Home
Over the past several years, the tight end position has gone through something of a renaissance. Gone are the days when the tight end was only responsible for blocking; now he’s a fast, agile pass-catching machine. Well, at least some of them are.
With more and more leagues going to a points-per-reception (PPR) format, the tight end is becoming increasingly important in fantasy circles as well. Now, when your draft hits the fourth or fifth round, it makes sense to start thinking about drafting the top tight ends. Jason Witten is the consensus #1 TE this summer. He had a terrific 2007 and his prospects are bright for 2008. The next few guys each have a question (or two) about their respective games that need to be answered, though Antonio Gates (foot surgery), Tony Gonzalez (age) and Kellen Winslow (knees) should all be drafted by the time the sixth round is over in PPR leagues.
We’ve ranked the position in tiers to give you a better idea of how we view the drop-off within the position. In parenthesis, we’ve included the player’s Average Draft Position (ADP), which is the average round that the player is selected in Antsports’ 12-team leagues with a high performance scoring format. We’ve also included the ADP ranking (TE1, TE2, etc.) to see where the player is going relative to his peers. All of the data is from mock drafts conducted at Antsports.com from July 1st to July 29th.
Jason Witten, Cowboys (TE1, 4.07)
96 receptions, 1145 yards, 7 TD
Since Tony Romo took over the quarterback duties in Dallas, Witten has been a top tier tight end. He’s in the prime of his career (26) and virtually nothing has changed with the Cowboys’ offense, so there’s every reason to believe that Witten is primed for another top 3 season. The Cowboys have a great running game and with Terrell Owens out wide, defenses will have a tough time taking Witten away. Plus, Romo loves looking to him, and that’s half the battle.
99 receptions, 1172 yards, 5 TD
Gonzalez is 32 and has recently said that he plans to play two more years. He has finished in the top 3 in eight of the last nine seasons, and even though the Chiefs’ passing game is suspect, he should still be near the top of the league in targets and receptions. Dwayne Bowe gives the team a dangerous threat on the outside that will help create space for Gonzo over the middle.
Kellen Winslow, Browns (TE3, 5.06)
82 receptions, 1106 yards, 5 TD
After grumbling about a new contract and having some offseason knee issues, Winslow is in camp and practicing full bore. As long as he stays healthy and the Browns’ passing game doesn’t regress – we’re looking at you, Derek Anderson – Winslow should be a shoe-in for a top 5 finish.
Antonio Gates, Chargers (TE2, 5.05)
75 receptions, 984 yards, 9 TD
Gates had surgery on his foot, and until he’s back to practicing full time, his value is going to be a little depressed. He has finished in the top 2 in each of the last four seasons, and if he’s good to go, he’s a great bet to finishing there again. The Chargers’ addition of Chris Chambers gives the team a number of weapons in the passing game, which means they could ease Gates back into action if they deemed it necessary. It also means that defenses are going to be hard pressed to focus their attention only on Gates.
Chris Cooley, Redskins (TE6, 6.12)
66 receptions, 786 yards, 8 TD
Cooley has finished in the top 6 in each of the last three seasons and he’s a good bet to finish that high in 2008. Jason Campbell is developing and the team is moving to a version of the West Coast offense, which depends on the short passing game, so Cooley could see even more targets this season.
57 receptions, 619 yards, 3 TD
Shockey wore out his welcome with the Giants and now he has a fresh start in one of the best passing attacks in the league. Even though he always seems to be battling some sort of injury, Shockey has missed just five games in the last four years. With Drew Brees throwing the ball and Marques Colston and Reggie Bush opening up passing lanes, Shockey should be in for a very good season.
Todd Heap, Ravens (TE8, 8.06)
23 receptions, 239 yards, 1 TD
Over the past six seasons, Heap has averaged 4.3 receptions for 49 yards and 0.3 TD per game. That translates to 69-784-5 over the course of a full season. The problem is that whole “full season” thing. Heap always seems to be nicked up, and last season he missed 10 games. The good news is that the last two times that Heap missed significant time, he followed them up with back-to-back 16-game seasons. If he can do that this season, he’s a shoe-in for the top 10 and has top 5 potential.
Owen Daniels, Texans (TE10, 10.03)
63 receptions, 768 yards, 3 TD
Daniels had a breakout season in 2007 and should be able to build on those numbers in 2008. After Andre Johnson, he is the Texans’ second-best threat in the passing game, and with Houston’s running game in flux, Daniels should see plenty of looks. He’s athletic and has great hands, and has a great shot of finishing in the top 10 for the second consecutive season.
Vernon Davis, 49ers (TE7, 8.02)
52 receptions, 509 yards, 4 TD
Davis has yet to realize his full potential, but it should be noted tight end is a very difficult position to learn as a young player. Davis’ ability to digest Mike Martz’ complicated system has been questioned, but there’s no arguing that Davis has the ability necessary to explode in his offensive coordinator’s pass-happy offense. Davis has been injury-prone and Martz has hinted that 52 catches might be Davis’ ceiling. But he plans to use his tight end to stretch the field, so Davis should be a sure bet for more yardage and probably a few more scores.
58 receptions, 616 yards, 11 TD
Clark’s 2007 was no fluke. He’s a talented, pass-catching tight end capable of putting up great numbers. The problem is the lack of targets. In the three seasons from 2004-2006, Clark averaged 3.5 targets per game. In 2007, he averaged 6.7 targets. What was the difference? Marvin Harrison wasn’t in the lineup, so somebody had to get his targets. Much like Anthony Gonzalez, Clark’s fantasy fortunes depend mainly on the health of Harrison (and Reggie Wayne, of course).
Tony Scheffler, Broncos (TE12, 10.08)
49 receptions, 549 yards, 5 TD
Denver needed Scheffler to step up his game in 2007 and he answered the bell. He has great hands, converting more than 75% of his targets into receptions. Plus, he put up good numbers even though he didn’t register a catch until week 5. Had he been more involved during those first four games, he would have been on pace for 65-732-7. That would have made him the #7 TE in 2007. Scheffler is a solid sleeper to grab later in the draft if you miss out on the top tier of guys.
Heath Miller, Steelers (TE11, 10.06)
47 receptions, 566 yards, 7 TD
Miller has been an above average fantasy TE since he entered the league, but he had something of a breakout season in 2007. He converted an eye-popping 77% of his targets into catches, the best amongst the top 20 at his position last season. The Steelers would do well to feature him more, especially outside of the redzone. He is probably the last of the dependable TE starters this season.
Jason Witten, CowboysIn the fourth round, once the top WRs are off the board (i.e. after Boldin/Burress are gone), it’s a great time to snag Witten.
Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs
Gonzo still thrived with poor QB play in 2007. Expect the same or even a little better if Brodie Croyle can improve.
L.J. Smith, Eagles
Smith has the talent of a top 10 TE at the price of a backup. As long as he can stay healthy, he can help your team.
Dallas Clark, ColtsClark’s targets are likely to take a big hit with the return of Marvin Harrison.
Alge Crumpler, Titans
Crumpler is a nice backup, but he’s getting on in years and is injury-prone, so don’t count on him as your starter.
Randy McMichael, Rams
McMichael’s heyday is over. He’s being drafted on name recognition, but he is only backup material at this point in his career.Alge Crumpler, Titans (TE13, 11.04)
42 receptions, 444 yards, 5 TD
Believers say that Crumpler was a perennial top 5 TE from 2003-2006, and that he’s going to a Tennessee offense that relies heavily on their pass-catching tight ends. Doubters say that he’s 30 years old and coming off a season-ending injury. Crumpler definitely has the talent to break into the top 5 again, but can he stay healthy and develop a rapport with Vince Young?
Greg Olsen, Bears (N/A)
39 receptions, 391 yards, 2 TD
In a four-game stretch from weeks 4-8, Olson averaged 4.8 catches for 57 yards and 0.5 TD. Project that out for a full season and you’re looking at 77-912-8, which are top 5 TE numbers. It’s only his second season, so those expectations are a stretch, but those four games give us an idea of what kind of talent Olsen possesses. Considering the Bears’ lack of a true #1 WR, Olsen should get a lot of looks and be able to build on his promising rookie campaign.
Donald Lee, Packers (TE16, 14.02)
48 receptions, 575 yards, 6 TD
Lee is a sure-handed receiver who converted over 76% of his targets into catches. Despite a lack of great foot speed, he has a knack for getting open. He was a favorite of Brett Favre, and it’s unclear just how many targets he’ll get with Aaron Rodgers under center. While his scores are likely to decrease, he should be able to post similar reception and yardage stats, assuming Rodgers looks his way.
Zach Miller, Raiders (TE17, 17.11)
44 receptions, 444 yards, 3 TD
Miller had a fine rookie season for the Raiders, and looks to build on his success with JaMarcus Russell at quarterback. If Javon Walker struggles, which at this point seems likely, look for Miller to be one of the guys to pick up the slack. He has the talent to break into the top 10 in the next year or two.
22 receptions, 236 yards, 1 TD
Smith missed time in 2007 with injuries, but he’s healthy now and playing for a contract. He was a top 10 TE in 2005 and 2006, and he’s just 28, so there’s no reason to believe that he’s not capable of being a starter-quality TE at a backup price.
Desmond Clark, Bears (N/A)
44 receptions, 545 yards, 4 TD
The bad news is that Greg Olsen is a better pass-catching tight end. The good news is that Clark is the better blocker right now and since the Bears don’t have many options in the passing game, it’s likely that they’ll play Clark and Olsen together. Clark should continue to get 60+ targets, so expect another 40+ catch season.
Ben Watson, Patriots (TE14, 12.07)
36 receptions, 389 yards, 6 TD
Watson has missed seven games over the past two seasons due to injury, so it’s tough to count on him. That said, with all the attention that Randy Moss and Wes Welker attract, Watson has loads of space in which to work. He set a career high last year with six touchdowns, but his receptions and yards per game were down from 2005.
Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars (N/A)
37 receptions, 391 yards, 2 TD
Lewis pretty much tripled his production from his rookie to his sophomore season. This is a good sign, but don’t expect another three-fold increase. He’s more likely to post a 45-catch/500-yard/4-TD kind of season, which should make him a somewhat reliable backup fantasy TE.
Randy McMichael, Rams (TE15, 13.03)
39 receptions, 429 yards, 3 TD
A quick look at McMichael’s stats would indicate that his best years are behind him. This is probably true, but there’s reason to believe that McMichael could be a good fantasy backup if the Rams offense improves at all from its poor performance in 2007. He’s just 29, so it’s not like he’s over the hill.
Kevin Boss, Giants (N/A)
9 receptions, 118 yards, 2 TD
Boss stepped in and played pretty well for the injured Jeremy Shockey during the final game of the season (vs. New England) and during the Giants’ playoff run. In total, he caught 9 passes for 140 yards and a score during that five-game span. That gives us a rough estimate of what to expect over an entire season: 29-448-3. Obviously, that’s not great, but assuming Boss improves year-to-year and becomes a bigger part of the offense, he might become relevant fantasy-wise.