2008 Fantasy Football Preview: Running Backs
08/11/2008
Sports Channel / Bullz-Eye Home
Running backs are the foundation to any good fantasy football team. For years, the strategy has been to draft RBs early and fill out the rest of the roster later, but recently leagues have tried to make other positions more draftable by changing the scoring system (i.e. adding a point per reception) and/or changing the starting lineup requirements (i.e. adding a flex position and removing a RB slot). Typically, if your league requires two starting running backs, it’s wise to draft two early unless you believe some of the backs going in the fourth or fifth round are destined to have a good season. There is no position more difficult to fill via the waiver wire than a non-productive RB2 slot, so it’s wise to grab three RBs within your first five or six picks, if possible. If your league only requires one starting running back, it’s far less crucial to draft a bunch of them early.
We’ve ranked the position in tiers to give you a better idea of how we view the dropoff within the position. There are circumstances where you may want to select a player from a lower tier. For instance, if Michael Turner looks good in the preseason, you may want to gamble on his upside and draft him ahead of LenDale White. In parenthesis, we’ve included the players Average Draft Position (ADP), which is the average round that the player is selected in Antsports’ 12-team leagues with a high performance scoring format. That system awards one point per reception, so keep that in mind as you look through the tiers. We’ve also included the ADP ranking (RB1, RB2, etc.) to see where the player is going relative to his peers. All of the data is from mock drafts conducted at Antsports.com from July 1st to July 29th.
LaDanian Tomlinson, Chargers (RB1, 1.01)
1474 rushing yards, 15 TD; 60 receptions, 475 rec yards, 3 TD
With Tomlinson on your roster, it’s now your league to lose. There’s no guarantee that LT2 will finish as the top back, but he has finished in the top three in each of the last six seasons. If you are lucky enough to land the #1 pick, grab Tomlinson and don’t look back.
Jamal Lewis, BrownsEven though he finished in the top 10 last season, Lewis is being passed over on draft day. His situation is the same, so look for him in the late second or early third.
Ryan Grant, Packers
Now that Grant is in camp, look for him to produce at nearly the same level as he did for the second half of 2007. A good season from Aaron Rodgers would certainly help.
LenDale White, Titans
Don’t worry about the Chris Johnson pick. White is still Tennesse’s primary ball carrier, which means he’ll have plenty of opportunity to rack up yards. He’s a great pick in the sixth.
Willie Parker, SteelersWith Rashard Mendenhall in town, Parker will be hard pressed to live up to his draft position. His ypc is already on the decline and his touchdowns are way down.
Laurence Maroney, Patriots
LaMont Jordan, Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk all figure to vulture carries and catches. Bill Belichick will only feature one back if he only has one back.
Julius Jones, Seahawks
It looks like Jones and Maurice Morris are going to split carries, and T.J. Duckett figures in as well. It’s probably going to be a RBBC in Seattle.Brian Westbrook, Eagles (RB4, 1.03)
1333 rushing yards, 7 TD; 90 receptions, 771 rec yards, 5 TD
Westy is FINALLY getting some serious first round love. Remember, these tiers are for PPR leagues, and his receiving skills really pay dividends on a weekly basis. He actually finished 2007 as the RB1 in most PPR leagues and was RB4 in 2006, so other than some injury concerns (which seem to be behind him), he’s a very dependable pick at #2.
Joseph Addai, Colts (RB5, 1.05)
1072 rushing yards, 12 TD; 41 receptions, 364 rec yards, 3 TD
Addai is the main back in a potent offense, which means he’ll have plenty of opportunity to put up fantasy points. He’s a little inconsistent at times, but for the most part he posted bona fide RB1 numbers last season and finished #3 overall. All signs point to another great season for the youngster.
Steven Jackson, Rams (RB3, 1.03)
1002 rushing yards, 5 TD; 38 receptions, 271 rec yards, 1 TD
The Rams were a mess last season, but Jackson still shrugged off an early season injury to finish the season strong, averaging 104 total yards and 0.6 TD over the last eight games. Orlando Pace should be ready to go for the opener and that gives a shaky O-line a big boost. The main concern with Jackson is his steep drop in receptions from 2006 (90) to 2007 (38), which hurts him in PPR leagues. He also has a lingering contract issue at press time.
Adrian Peterson, Vikings (RB2, 1.02)
1341 rushing yards, 12 TD; 19 receptions, 268 rec yards, 1 TD
Peterson got off to a torrid start in his rookie season, but a mild knee injury seemed to take some of the wind out of his sails. He was wildly inconsistent over the last half, which raises questions about his durability over the course of a 16-game season. The Vikings have a terrific O-line, but the presence of the more-than-capable Chester Taylor depresses Peterson’s value a bit.
Clinton Portis, Redskins (RB8, 1.10)
1262 rushing yards, 11 TD; 47 receptions, 389 rec yards, 0 TD
Portis shrugged off an injury-riddled 2006 campaign to finish as RB5 in 2007. He was extremely consistent, scoring at least 11 fantasy points in 15 of his 16 games. Jim Zorn is in as head coach, and he has a history of running his backs hard (even though Mike Holmgren calls most of the plays in Seattle). Portis figures to be the centerpiece of the Redskins’ offense, so if he can stay healthy, another top 5 finish is within reach.
Marion Barber III, Cowboys (RB7, 1.08)
975 rushing yards, 10 TD; 44 receptions, 282 rec yards, 2 TD
Barber is a young stud playing in a potent offense behind a very effective offensive line. Julius Jones is gone, and the team drafted Felix Jones as Jones’ replacement, but Barber figures to get the lion’s share of the carries. He has averaged 14 TD over the last two seasons and showed some effectiveness in the passing game in 2007. All signs point to another strong season (as long as he can adjust to the new stiff arm rules). Even though he isn’t terribly consistent week-to-week, he’s a very safe pick in the first round.
Frank Gore, 49ers (RB6, 1.07)
1102 rushing yards, 5 TD; 53 receptions, 436 rec yards, 1 TD
Touchdowns have been the problem for Gore, who has played in a fairly ineffective offense during his entire career. Enter Mike Martz as the 49ers’ new offensive coordinator. He has already said that he wants to get Gore 25 touches per game, but Martz has had a history of abandoning the running game in the past. However, Gore’s pass-catching ability should keep him involved in every game.
Willis McGahee, Ravens (RB12, 2.04)
1207 rushing yards, 7 TD; 43 receptions, 231 rec yards, 1 TD
The Ravens were pretty bad offensively last season, but McGahee still managed to put up RB1 numbers. He’s a threat in the passing game and should get the majority of the team’s (limited) goal line carries. He’s not going to single-handedly carry a fantasy team, but in the late first or early second, there aren’t any obvious studs on the board. Pair him with another solid RB and you’ll get good, consistent production from your backfield. McGahee is a low-risk pick, but there’s one cause for concern – the retirement of steady left tackle Jonathan Ogden.
Reggie Bush, Saints (RB11, 2.03)
581 rushing yards, 4 TD; 73 receptions, 417 rec yards, 2 TD
Bush missed the last four games of the season, but still finished as RB12 in PPR leagues. With Deuce McAllister on the decline, it would appear that Bush would carry the load this season. His lack of touchdowns is offset by all those receptions, which are golden in PPR leagues. He can be a frustrating fantasy player, but his performance (93 total yards and the 0.8 TD per game) during the eight-game stretch from Weeks 3-11 certainly makes him an interesting pick in the late first or early second.
559 rushing yards, 3 TD; 30 receptions, 186 rec yards, 1 TD
LJ carried the ball a combined 752 times in 2005 and 2006, and that workload appeared to catch up to him last season when an injured foot limited him to just eight games. He was pretty productive when he played, but the Chiefs’ offensive line is a long way away from its heyday a few years ago. Kansas City has a serious issue at QB and LJ will see a ton of eight-man fronts unless the Chiefs can find a way to get Brodie Croyle or Damon Huard going. With Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez in the passing game, there is potential there, but based on what we’ve seen from the Chiefs’ QBs, it’s not looking too good.
1304 rushing yards, 9 TD; 30 receptions, 248 rec yards, 2 TD
Heading into last season, there were concerns about Lewis’ age and durability. He has now carried the ball 2120 times in his career, which sounds like a lot, but that’s 245 fewer carries than LaDainian Tomlinson’s career workload. He’ll be 29 when the season starts, so Lewis is still on the right side of 30. It’s all about the knees – can they hold up? Based on last season, they’re holding up just fine. The Browns have a good offensive line and enough firepower in the passing game that Lewis should have plenty of room to run. Lewis is a nice value in the late second or early third.
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars (RB13, 2.04)
768 rushing yards, 9 TD; 40 receptions, 407 rec yards, 0 TD
After a 15 TD rookie season, Jones-Drew fell back to Earth somewhat with a more modest sophomore season. Fred Taylor is still around, so despite the Jaguars’ terrific running game, Jones-Drew’s carries will still be limited. He was RB8 in his rookie season and RB11 last year, so putting him here seems like a safe bet. If Taylor goes down, MJD’s value will skyrocket.
Ryan Grant, Packers (RB14, 2.06)
956 rushing yards, 8 TD; 30 receptions, 147 rec yards, 0 TD
It’s tough to get a handle on Grant’s true value. The guy was on fire over the last half of last season, averaging 107 total yards and 0.7 TD in the Packers’ final 12 games (including the playoffs). That projects to 1712 total yards and 11 TD over a full season. Those are definitely RB1 numbers, but will he have a sophomore slump? How will the absence of Brett Favre affect how defenses try to stop the Green Bay running game? He’s likely to take a step back. It might be big, but if it’s a small one, he’ll be a nice value in the second round.
Marshawn Lynch, Bills (RB9, 1.11)
1115 rushing yards, 7 TD; 18 receptions, 184 rec yards, 0 TD
Lynch missed a few games of his rookie season with an ankle injury, but still managed to put up pretty good numbers. He wasn’t much of a threat in the passing game, but he got at least 18 carries in each of his 13 games, so you know he’ll get a good number of touches every Sunday. Like McGahee, he’s not going to set the world on fire in the Bills’ historically poor offense, but you could do a lot worse as your RB2.
1232 rushing yards, 7 TD; 25 receptions, 196 rec yards, 0 TD
It seems like Edge has been in the league forever, and for a 30 year-old entering his 10th season, he has a ton of miles on him. Over his career, he has carried the ball 2849 times, and has averaged 339 carries over the last four seasons. With the same offense in place, James seems like a sure bet for another 300+ carry season, as long as he can stay healthy.
Earnest Graham, Bucccaneers (RB20, 4.03)
898 rushing yards, 10 TD; 49 receptions, 324 rec yards, 0 TD
Graham had a breakout season filling in for Carnell Williams, and while Caddy is still sidelined, the Bucs signed Warrick Dunn and are refusing to name Graham the starter. Graham will still see the lion’s share of the carries, though Dunn is likely to cut into his catches.
Thomas Jones, Jets (RB21, 4.06)
1119 rushing yards, 1 TD; 28 receptions, 217 rec yards, 1 TD
Jones had his worst ypc (3.6) in six years playing behind the Jets’ awful offensive line, prompting the team to sign Alan Faneca and Damien Woody. This should result in a higher ypc and a few more scores, which makes Jones a decent RB2 candidate with limited upside. Couple that with the addition of Brett Favre to the passing game and there’s reason to be optimistic about TJ this season.
1108 rushing yards, 7 TD; 20 receptions, 114 rec yards, 0 TD
Even though the Titans drafted Chris Johnson in the first round, White is a better runner than his ypc (3.6) would indicate, and he should still see a majority of the carries in Tennessee’s run-heavy system. The team plans to use Johnson as more of a home run hitter (as a receiver), so White should represent very good value in the middle rounds.
Brandon Jacobs, Giants (RB18, 3.10)
1011 rushing yards, 4 TD; 23 receptions, 174 rec yards, 2 TD
Jacobs had a pretty nice season, but the emergence of Ahmad Bradshaw and Derrick Ward makes one wonder just how much of a committee the Giants will use. He’s in a contract year, which will usually yield big numbers, but the Giants are saying they’re planning to use Bradshaw and Ward quite a bit. That’s only going to limit Jacobs’ production.
Ronnie Brown, Dolphins (RB19, 3.12)
602 rushing yards, 4 TD; 39 receptions, 389 rec yards, 1 TD
Brown was on pace for 2200+ total yards before a torn ACL ended his season. While he’s back and the doctors say his knee is strong, he has admitted that he doesn’t trust it yet and the Dolphins are limiting his work. Throw in the resurgent Ricky Williams and there are a lot of questions surrounding the Miami running game right now. Brown is a guy that savvy fantasy owners might want to target after the first month of the season, when his value might be a tad lower (due to a potential slow start).
Rudi Johnson, Bengals (RB25, 5.05)
497 rushing yards, 3 TD; 13 receptions, 110 rec yards, 1 TD
Johnson was one of the biggest disappointments of the 2007 fantasy season. The usually dependable back was nagged by injuries all season and only appeared in 11 games rushing for a career-low ypc (2.9). He has the potential to bounce back, but one wonders if he’s hit the proverbial wall. He has the benefit of playing behind a decent O-line, so expect a better season, just don’t expect the Rudi of old.
Michael Turner, Falcons (RB17, 3.08)
316 rushing yards, 1 TD; 4 receptions, 16 yards, 0 TD
After four seasons of living in LaDainian Tomlinson’s shadow, Turner finally gets his shot as the Falcons’ main guy. The presence of Jerious Norwood is still worrisome, but Atlanta spent big money on Turner so they’re likely to give him the majority of their carries. Atlanta’s offensive line is suspect, so don’t expect monster numbers from Turner this season, though he should be a capable RB2.
720 rushing yards, 1 TD; 35 receptions, 231 yards, 0 TD
Travis Henry is gone and Michael Pittman is in, so it is Young’s job to lose. Pittman is good in the passing game, so he could cut into Young’s catches, but the second year player figures to get most of Denver’s carries. The only real worry with Young is that he plays for Mike Shanahan, who always seems to zig when people think he’s going to zag. If Young holds onto the job deep into the preseason, expect Young’s stock to rise into the fourth round.
835 rushing yards, 6 TD; 4 receptions, 116 rec yards, 0 TD
Over the last six games (including the playoffs), Maroney averaged 108 total yards from scrimmage and 1.2 TD per game. While this is a strong predictor for a breakout season, there are a few reasons to be down on Maroney this year. The Pats signed Lamont Jordan, and Bill Belichick has shown a propensity for using multiple backs. Sammy Morris got most of the goal line carries when healthy last season, so Maroney may not be Belichick’s first choice in the red zone. Lastly, despite his eye-popping 29.0 yards per catch, Maroney only had four receptions all year.
Darren McFadden, Raiders (RB27, 5.09)
Rookie
Justin Fargas is still listed atop the Radiers’ depth chart, but Oakland didn’t draft McFadden to ride the pine. They have said that they would like to use him the same way the Saints used Reggie Bush in his rookie season, though McFadden isn’t as good of a receiver as Bush is. This looks like a committee, but McFadden will get his touches and has considerable upside.
Matt Forte, Bears (RB34, 8.02)
Rookie
Cedric Benson has been shown the door and the Bears drafted Forte to be their starter. The only problem is that the Bears’ offensive line is a mess. Forte will get plenty of touches, however, so in the middle rounds you could do worse as your RB3 (or RB2 if you were to grab a WR or two in the early rounds). The Bears did sign Kevin Jones, so if he can stay healthy, he’s likely to cut into Forte’s workload.
Kevin Smith, Lions (RB30, 6.11)
Rookie
The Lions replaced Kevin Jones with another Kevin, and he’s already listed atop the team’s depth chart. Detroit’s offensive line is pretty bad, and the Lions are usually playing from behind, so it’s tough to get too excited about the rookie. He has been impressive in the team’s minicamps, so he’s someone to keep an eye on. He should get his touches, so he’s probably a safe RB3 with some upside if the Lions ever get their running game going.
1316 rushing yards, 2 TD; 23 receptions, 164 rec yards, 0 TD
While the Steelers are saying that first round draft pick Rashard Mendenhall will be used as a “supplemental” runner, it’s clear that Parker’s days of 300+ carries are probably over. The question is – just how much will the Steelers cut back his workload?
Fred Taylor, Jaguars (RB32, 7.02)
1202 rushing yards, 5 TD; 9 receptions, 58 rec yards, 0 TD
Taylor made the Pro Bowl last season for the first time in his career, rushing for a career-high 5.4 ypc. His upside is limited due to the presence of Maurice Jones-Drew, who gets more goal line carries and action in the passing game. Still, Taylor is a solid RB3 candidate in most fantasy leagues.
585 rushing yards, 2 TD; 23 receptions, 203 rec yards, 0 TD
Jones is getting a fresh start in Seattle, but the Seahawks have already stated that they plan to utilize a RBBC approach. Look for Jones and Maurice Morris to get a 60/40 split, with T.J. Duckett chiming in around the goal line.
Chester Taylor, Vikings (RB33, 7.06)
844 rushing yards, 7 TD; 29 receptions, 281 rec yards, 0 TD
Taylor’s future depends largely on the health of Adrian Peterson. If AP stays healthy, then Taylor’s 2007 numbers are probably a best-case scenario. If AP gets dinged up or misses significant time, Taylor is bound to be a top 15 back. He’s a must for any Peterson owner (or for anyone who wants to mess with the Peterson owner in his league).
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (RB29, 6.08)
Rookie
Hooray, DeShaun Foster is gone! Boo, the Panthers drafted a running back in the first round! Just when we thought DeAngelo Williams would be handed the starting job, Carolina pulled a fast one and picked Stewart. This looks like a RBBC until further notice. Stewart is more likely than Williams to win the job outright.
Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers (RB39, 9.08)
Rookie
The Steelers drafted Mendenhall in the first round, showing that they’re serious about easing Willie Parker’s workload. They’ve indicated that both backs will play extensively, but given the way Parker has struggled in that area, Mendenhall probably has the better chance of getting goal line carries.
Ahman Green, Texans (RB36, 8.08)
260 rushing yards, 2 TD; 14 receptions, 123 rec yards, 0 TD
The Texans’ running game is one of the ugliest in all of football. With Green, Chris Brown, Steve Slaton and Darius Walker (who actually looked pretty good last year), there is some talent there, but it’s so unsettled that any of those four could finish the season as the team’s leading rusher. Brown might be worth a late round flyer, but fantasy owners should probably stay away from this mess.
DeAngelo Williams, Panthers (RB31, 7.01)
717 rushing yards, 4 TD; 23 receptions, 177 rec yards, 1 TD
Every year, fantasy owners think that Williams will take over as RB1 in Carolina, and every year, they’re disappointed. With the Panthers’ pick of Jonathan Stewart in the draft, 2008 looks like more of the same.
Jerious Norwood, Falcons (RB41, 9.12)
615 rushing yards, 1 TD; 28 receptions, 277 rec yards, 0 TD
No one can argue with Norwood’s production. He has averaged 6.2 yards a carry over the last two seasons, but with the acquisition of Michael Turner, it’s obvious that the Falcons don’t see the speedy Norwood as an every-down back. He’s going to get his touches, however, as the Falcons intend to use him as a receiver as well.
Felix Jones, Cowboys (RB43, 11.10)
Rookie
Dallas is a tale of two Joneses. Out goes Julius, in comes Felix. He’s a speedster that was drafted to complement Marion Barber’s bruising running style. Expect about 125-150 carries for Jones – just enough to give Barber a nice breather now and then.
Deuce McAllister, Saints (RB35, 8.07)
92 rushing yards, 0 TD; 4 receptions, 15 rec yards, 0 TD
McAllister had a pretty good 2006 (1255 total yards, 10 TD) bracketed by two injury-riddled seasons in which he missed a total of 24 games. He’s approaching 30 and is suddenly a big injury risk. If he looks ready to go in the preseason, he’d be a smart handcuff for Reggie Bush owners, but it’s tough to see him having another good season like he did in 2006.
Justin Fargas, Raiders (RB37, 8.09)
1009 rushing yards, 4 TD; 23 receptions, 188 rec yards, 0 TD
The Raiders are saying they want to use Fargas and newcomer Darren McFadden like the Saints have used Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush in recent years. If that’s the case, we don’t really know what to expect from the Raiders running game. Best-case scenario has Fargas putting up similar numbers as he did in 2007. He only carried the ball 46 times in the first six games, so there is some potential upside if the Raiders are serious about using McFadden mainly in the passing game. That seems unlikely, however.
Consider drafting these guys if you land the player that starts ahead of him.
Kenny Watson, Bengals (RB38, 9.01)
763 rushing yards, 7 TD; 52 receptions, 374 rec yards, 0 TD
Watson had a big 2007 filling in for Rudi Johnson. In PPR leagues, he’s a smart handcuff for Rudi.
Kevin Jones, Bears (RB52, 14.12)
581 rushing yards, 8 TD; 33 receptions, 199 yards, 0 TD
There’s only one problem with this multi-faceted, talented back. He’s injury prone. However, if Matt Forte doesn’t live up to his billing, Jones may find himself getting a lot of work in the Bears’ rotation.
Brandon Jackson, Packers (N/A)
267 rushing yards, 1 TD; 16 receptions, 130 yards, 0 TD
If the Packers don’t clear up the Ryan Grant contract situation, Jackson would be the next guy in line. He’s a former second round pick and has good speed.
Chris Johnson, Titans (RB44, 11.11)
Rookie
This speedy back stands to gain the most if LenDale White were to miss any time.
Leon Washington, Jets (RB48, 14.06)
353 rushing yards, 3 TD; 36 receptions, 213 rec yards, 0 TD
Washington’s 5.0 ypc makes one wonder why the Jets don’t use him a bit more. He’d become a RB2 if Thomas Jones were to falter.
Chris Brown, Texans (RB42, 11.05)
464 rushing yards, 5 TD; 19 receptions, 128 rec yards, 0 TD
Houston’s running game looks like a mess, and Brown might actually be the Texans’ best option. It’s going to take an injury to Ahman Green for Brown to see any significant time.
Warrick Dunn, Bucs (RB55, 16.01)
718 rushing yards, 4 TD; 37 receptions, 238 rec yards, 0 TD
With Carnell Williams sidelined, Dunn appears to be Earnest Graham’s backup.
Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants (RB47, 14.04)
190 rushing yards, 1 TD; 2 receptions, 12 rec yards, 0 TD
Bradshaw was instrumental in the Giants’ Super Bowl run and it looks like he (and Derrick Ward) will vulture some carries from Brandon Jacobs.
Ricky Williams, Dolphins (RB40, 9.12)
6 rushing yards, 0 TD; 0 receptions, 0 rec yards, 0 TD
The hype continues to grow as Williams appears to look very good in the Dolphins’ offseason activities. With Ronnie Brown returning from a knee injury, savvy owners will cover their bets late by drafting Williams as well.