2008 Fantasy Football Preview: Quarterbacks
08/11/2008
Sports Channel / Bullz-Eye Home
It’s funny – quarterback is the most important position in real football, but in fantasy circles, it takes a backseat to running back and even wide receiver. This is due to the annual depth at the position. Oftentimes, fantasy owners find that QB12 has almost as good of a chance of cracking the top 5 as QB6 does, in which case it pays to wait on quarterbacks and fill some of the other positions first.
However, this year is a little different. Tom Brady is coming off a HUGE season and, depending on your projections, he’s a bona fide first round pick. There are those who think Brady will take a big step back because defenses seemed to figure out the New England offense late in the season. Even so, he still has the potential to put up very big numbers.
After Brady, there are five quarterbacks who seem to be head and shoulders above the rest when it comes to production, consistency and dependability: Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger. A simple strategy is to try to grab one of these players when the draft unfolds in such a way that the value is undeniable. If the opportunity doesn’t present itself, then there are a number of guys that will be available later in the draft who have the potential to have very good seasons.
We’ve ranked the position in tiers to give you a better idea of how we view the drop-off within the position. In parenthesis, we’ve included the player’s Average Draft Position (ADP), which is the average round that the player is selected in Antsports’ 12-team leagues with a high performance scoring format. We’ve also included the ADP ranking (QB1, QB2, etc.) to see where the player is going relative to his peers. All of the data is from mock drafts conducted at Antsports.com from July 1 to July 29.
Tom Brady, Patriots (QB1, 1.08)
4806 passing yards, 50 TD, 8 INT; 98 rushing yards, 2 TD
Brady’s 2007 was arguably the best statistical season ever posted by a quarterback. Not much has changed around him, so it would seem to be a good bet that he’ll once again finish with stellar numbers. It’s hard to see Brady matching those gaudy stats, but certainly 4200 yards and 40 TD seems well within reach. Defenses started to adjust in the playoffs, so it will be interesting to see what chess moves Bill Belichick comes up with to counter what the Giants did to the Pats in the Super Bowl.
Peyton Manning, Colts (QB2, 2.02)
4040 passing yards, 31 TD, 14 INT; -5 rushing yards, 3 TD
Manning has been impossibly reliable over his career, finishing in the top 5 at his position in nine of the last 10 seasons (and in the top 3 in seven of the last 10). Even though Marvin Harrison proved that he was mortal last season, it didn’t hurt Manning’s numbers. He simply adjusted and instead looked to Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and Anthony Gonzalez en route to another wonderful season.
Tony Romo, Cowboys (QB3, 2.12)
4211 passing yards, 36 TD, 19 INT; 129 rushing yards, 2 TD
In 2007, Romo proved that his strong finish to the 2006 season was no fluke. He still has Terrell Owens and Jason Witten to throw to, he has a great running game to keep defenses honest, and he has a strong offensive line to protect him. There’s no reason to think that Romo won’t have another terrific season (other than the Jessica Simpson jinx).
Drew Brees, Saints (QB4, 3.09)
4428 passing yards, 28 TD, 18 INT; 52 rushing yards, 1 TD
Brees got off to a horrible start last season but bounced back in a big way, averaging 23.8 fantasy points over the last 12 games. The Saints locked up Marques Colston and acquired Jeremy Shockey, giving Brees plenty of weapons at his disposal. The Saints also have an underrated offensive line, so Brees looks primed for another quality season.
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (QB6, 4.11)
3154 passing yards, 32 TD, 11 INT; 204 rushing yards, 2 TD
Big Ben was one of our value picks last season and he didn’t disappoint. He has improved his fantasy numbers in each of the four seasons and has an arsenal of weapons to throw to. The emergence of Santonio Holmes should offset and degradation in the performance of Hines Ward, and Heath Miller is a very solid option at tight end. One wonders if the Rashard Mendenhall pick signals a return to the power running attack, but we think that Roethlisberger is likely to finish in the top 6 or 7 for the second consecutive season.
Carson Palmer, Bengals (QB5, 4.03)
4131 passing yards, 26 TD, 20 INT; 10 rushing yards, 0 TD
Over the last three years, Palmer’s touchdowns have been on the decline and his interceptions have been on the rise. While this is not a good sign, Chad Johnson did report to camp and the Bengals agreed to revisit his contract after the season. Palmer is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league and he has a couple of very nice weapons in CJ and T.J. Houshmandzedeh to throw to, so expect another 25+ TD season from Cincy’s QB.
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers"Big Ben" was a value pick last season, and he’s still flying under the radar. He’ll probably last longer than any of the other “Big 6” and is a nice pick in the fourth round.
Jay Cutler, Broncos
Brandon Marshall is going to miss three games, but Darrell Jackson is in town and Tony Scheffler is coming on at tight end. The most important thing is that Cutler has his diabetes under control, so he should be primed for a good season.
David Garrard, Jaguars
Garrard was smooth and steady last season and faces a much easier schedule this year. Grab him in the middle rounds.
Donovan McNabb, EaglesHe has missed 15 games in the last three seasons, so only draft McNabb if you have a good backup plan in mind. And don’t overspend.
Marc Bulger, Rams
The St. Louis offense is bound to improve, but this isn’t the “Greatest Show on Turf” anymore. You’re better off grabbing Cutler or Garrard a round or two later.
Jon Kitna, Lions
With Mike Martz gone, Kitna and the Lions are unlikely to throw nearly as much as they did last season, so don’t expect Kitna to be an every week starter.Derek Anderson, Browns (QB7, 5.10)
3787 passing yards, 29 TD, 19 INT; 70 rushing yards, 3 TD
Anderson was on fire for much of the 2007 season but faltered late, posting just 11.5 points over the last three games against some suspect competition. There’s some inherent risk in drafting Anderson, but there’s some upside as well. The Browns have an explosive offense and seem to always be trying to come back late in games. Anderson has two great weapons in the passing game (Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow) and a good running game that features Jamal Lewis. He has all the tools for another good fantasy season, including a stellar offensive line, but can he avoid the second-year slump?
Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks (QB9, 6.10)
3966 passing yards, 28 TD; 12 INT; 79 rushing yards, 0 TD
D.J. Hackett is gone and Deion Branch is injured, so Hass enters 2008 behind the proverbial eight ball. Bobby Engram and Nate Burleson will be asked to pick up the slack, but even so, it seems unlikely that their QB will be able to match the nice fantasy numbers he posted in 2007. Still, Hasselbeck has been in Mike Holmgren’s system for a long time, so there’s limited downside. He’s a low-risk pick in the middle rounds.
3497 passing yards, 20 TD, 14 INT; 205 rushing yards, 1 TD
All things considered, Jay Cutler had a nice first year as the Broncos’ starting QB. He started all 16 games and finished as the #11 QB despite losing 30 pounds (and much of his strength and energy) as a result of then-undiagnosed Type 1 diabetes, but that is now under control. Javon Walker is out and Darrell Jackson is in. That’s a downgrade, but Walker missed half of 2007, so he didn’t have much of an impact on Cutler’s numbers. The big question in Denver is the status of Brandon Marshall. He is going to miss three games due to suspension, so as long as he returns to action in good shape, Cutler should have a nice year.
Donovan McNabb, Eagles (QB8, 6.05)
3324 passing yards, 19 TD; 7 INT; 236 rushing yards, 0 TD
McNabb is great…when he plays. The problem is that he can’t stay on the field. McNabb has missed 15 games in the past three seasons, which makes him a dicey pick in the fifth or sixth round. In the seventh, he becomes a better value, but be sure to grab a capable backup because chances are McNabb will miss some time.
2509 passing yards, 18 TD, 3 INT; 182 rushing yards, 1 TD
On a per game basis, Garrard was the #11 QB last season, making him a fringe starter. He’s one of the most consistent signal callers out there, and while he’s not going to win any fantasy championships on his own, he’s not going to lose any, either. He only had one bad game last season – week 7 vs. the Colts. He threw for at least one TD in his other 13 games (including the playoffs).
Eli Manning, Giants (QB13, 9.02)
3336 passing yards, 23 TD, 20 INT; 69 rushing yards, 1 TD
Will the real Eli Manning please stand up? He’s been a fantasy disappointment for most of his career, but over the Giants’ last five games (including four in the playoffs against very good teams), Manning threw for an average of 221 yards and 2.0 TD per game. The loss of Jeremy Shockey, one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the league, only serves to complicate matters.
4157 passing yards, 28 TD, 15 INT; 12 rushing yards, 0 TD
Well, the Brett Favre saga is over. He’s now a member of the New York Jets and he joins a team that is in desperate need of his services. It’s going to be a tough job to learn a new offense, but the Jets plan to ease Favre into service by trying to progressively open up more of the playbook as the season wears on. The good news for Favre is that the Jets upgraded their offensive line and he has some weapons to throw to in the passing game. It wouldn’t be surprising if Favre finished in the top 10 once again.
2392 passing yards, 11 TD, 15 INT; 13 rushing yards, 0 TD
It’s hard to imagine Bulger and the St. Louis offense being as bad as they were last season. Then again, it’s hard to imagine Bulger bouncing back to his 4301-yard, 24-TD 2006. Chances are he’ll finish somewhere in between, and those numbers would make him only a marginal starting QB in fantasy circles.
Philip Rivers, Chargers (QB14, 9.11)
3152 passing yards, 21 TD, 15 INT; 33 rushing yards, 1 TD
Rivers finished 2007 as the #15 overall QB, and even the addition of Chris Chambers couldn’t make him a solid fantasy starter. You know what you’re going to get with Rivers: 20-23 TDs and 3100-3400 yards passing. Since he’s going in the ninth round, he’s backup-quality, or at best, part of a Quarterback By Committee (QBBC).
626 passing yards, 8 TD, 1 INT; 26 rushing yards, 0 TD
According to reports, Delhomme’s elbow is recovering nicely, and if he’s truly healthy, he could have a bounce-back year. Steve Smith is ready to go (though he’s suspended for the first two games) and the Panthers signed D.J. Hackett to give the team a legitimate threat on the other side. If he looks good in the preseason, Delhomme is a nice value pick in the late-middle rounds.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers (QB15, 10.03)
218 passing yards, 1 TD, 0 INT; 29 rushing yards, 0 TD
When he filled in for Brett Favre in last year’s game against Dallas – his first significant regular season action – Rodgers looked like the real deal. In that game, he went 18 for 26, throwing for 201 yards and a score. He has a nice group of receivers to throw to, a solid offensive line, and a dangerous running game to keep defenses honest. Under normal circumstances, Rodgers looks like a mid- to late-round guy with a good shot at cracking the top 10. His chances for success in 2008 depend mainly on his ability to handle the pressure of following a legend.
Matt Schaub, Texans (QB16, 10.07)
2241 passing yards, 9 TD, 9 INT; 52 rushing yards, 0 TD
Schaub only played in 11 games last season and had a few very nice performances. In the eight games where he attempted at least 20 passes, he threw for an average of 264 yards and 1.1 TD. In Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels, he has two good weapons in the passing game, but the running game is in flux. At this point in his career, Schaub is a decent backup with starter potential.
Vince Young, Titans (QB21, 13.01)
2546 passing yards, 9 TD, 17 INT; 395 rushing yards, 3 TD
From a fantasy perspective, Young took a big step back in his sophomore season. Even though he threw for more yards, his touchdowns were down and his interceptions were up. Other than new addition Alge Crumpler and speedy running back Chris Johnson, Young still doesn’t have too many weapons in the passing game to throw to. There’s nowhere to go but up for the Titans’ offense, but even with some progress, Young is still a fantasy backup.
Jason Campbell (QB20, 12.11)
2700 passing yards, 12 TD, 11 INT; 185 rushing yards, 1 TD
Campbell is a good quarterback but he has to transition to the West Coast offense this season, so his chances for success depend on how quickly the Redskins are able to adapt. At this point, Campbell looks like a fantasy backup that can hold down the fort for a few games if your starter goes down.
Jeff Garcia, Buccaneers (N/A)
2440 passing yards, 13 TD, 4 INT; 116 rushing yards, 1 TD
Garcia is a game-manager, not a starting fantasy quarterback. He’s consistent, so you know you can plug him in and get decent production, but he’s not going to set the world on fire. Assuming he remains the starter, he’s a so-so backup and spot starter.
4068 passing yards, 18 TD, 20 INT; 61 rushing yards, 0 TD
With the departure of Mike Martz, Kitna’s numbers figure to take a dip, but he still has Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams to throw to, so all is not lost. Drew Stanton seems to be Kitna’s biggest challenger, and if the team doesn’t get off to a good start, it’s possible that the Lions start Stanton (or Dan Orlovsky) to see what they can do. For that reason, Kitna is no longer a dependable fantasy starter.
647 passing yards, 2 TD, 4 INT; 42 rushing yards, 0 TD
After a somewhat promising rookie season, Leinart’s 2007 campaign was cut short with a broken collarbone. Thus far, he hasn’t met (or even approached) expectations. He has two great weapons in the passing game (Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin), an improving offensive line and a good running back in Edgerrin James. If he can’t put it together in his third season, it would cast serious doubt on his future as a starter in this league. Fantasy-wise, he’s worth a flier as a third QB.
Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings (N/A)
1911 passing yards, 9 TD, 12 INT; 260 rushing yards, 3 TD
Jackson is a year older and he now has an experienced weapon (Bernard Berrian) to throw to. Along with Sidney Rice, Berrian gives the Minnesota offense a pair of deep threats to keep defenses honest when they try to stack the line to stop the Vikings’ running game. For these reasons, Jackson has some upside, but it would be tough to count on him as your fantasy team’s only backup.
Trent Edwards, Bills (N/A)
1630 passing yards, 7 TD, 8 INT; 49 rushing yards, 0 TD
Edwards took over for J.P. Losman and had a decent first season as a starter. The Bills offense has been pretty ineffective for some time, but with Marshawn Lynch and Lee Evans, there are a few pieces in place. Helping Edwards’ cause is the Bills’ schedule, which is much easier than last year.
JaMarcus Russell, Raiders (N/A)
373 passing yards, 2 TD, 4 INT; 4 rushing yards, 0 TD
Russell has only started one game in his career so it’s tough to expect him to start strong when he’s only had one year in Oakland. That said, the Raiders’ offense improved last season and with the addition of Darren McFadden and (a hopefully healthy) Javon Walker, Russell will have some tools to work with.
Alex Smith, 49ers (N/A)
914 passing yards, 2 TD, 4 INT; 89 rushing yards, 0 TD
Technically, Smith has to win his job in camp, as Shaun Hill is nipping at his heels. But expect the former #1 overall pick to get another shot with new offensive coordinator Mike Martz at the helm. There’s some upside here, as Martz has a history of improving the play of his quarterback. He might not be a bad flier as a fantasy QB3.
This time of year, there are always a few unsettled QB situations around the league. From a fantasy perspective, it’s wise to steer clear, because if a player isn’t good enough to win the job outright (or be the presumed starter heading into camp), it’s highly unlikely that he’s going to be a good fantasy player. Besides, you can usually pluck the budding stars off the waiver wire after they have a good game or two early in the season (i.e. Derek Anderson in 2007).
Rex Grossman/Kyle Orton, Bears
While Grossman has shown some flashes of being a decent fantasy quarterback in his career, the Bears seem intent on giving the Bearded One another shot at the job.
Josh McCown/John Beck/Chad Henne, Dolphins
It appears that McCown will head into the season as the starter. If he falters, Beck would appear to be the next in line to replace him, but don't count out the rookie Henne.
Chris Redman/Matt Ryan, Falcons
While Redman posted decent fantasy numbers in 2007, Ryan is the future in Atlanta. Redman will start until he fails completely and/or Ryan shows that he’s ready to be a starting QB in the NFL.
Brodie Croyle/Damon Huard, Chiefs
The Chiefs desperately want Croyle to seize the starting job, but thus far his play has been mediocre at best. The Chiefs have some weapons – Larry Johnson, Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez – so the offense should be better than what it was last season. It all comes down to Croyle – if he doesn’t perform, Huard will get a shot.