2008 Fantasy Football Preview: Defenses/Special Teams
08/11/2008
Sports Channel / Bullz-Eye Home
Last year, the consensus top fantasy defense was the Baltimore Ravens and they finished the season as the #20 DT. That just goes to show how dicey it is to draft a defense early. We have an idea of what teams should be good, but there is more uncertainty here than just about any position in fantasy football. Moreover, there are always a few surprise defenses available early in the season on the waiver wire, so for those reasons, we don’t recommend drafting a defense early.
For the proactive, you can draft two defenses that have schedules that combine very well, and utilize a Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC) approach. See more information about our recommended DTBC combinations in the sidebar.
However, it’s not necessary to pick a backup DT on draft day, as there are always good options on the waiver wire. Once the season is under way, feel free to pick up another DT and play the one with the better matchup week-to-week. That’s one way to maximize your production at the position without burning an early pick on draft day.
We’ve ranked the position in tiers to give you a better idea of how we view the drop-off within the position. In parenthesis, we’ve included the player’s Average Draft Position (ADP), which is the average round that the player is selected in Antsports’ 12-team leagues with a high performance scoring format. We’ve also included the ADP ranking (DT1, DT2, etc.) to see where the player is going relative to his peers. All of the data is from mock drafts conducted at Antsports.com from July 1st to August 5th.
San Diego Chargers (DT1, 8.09)
The Chargers were one of the top fantasy defenses in 2007 and they didn’t suffer any major losses. CBs Antonio Cromartie and Quentin Jammer set the tone in the secondary and NT Jamal Williams holds down the middle. The Chargers have an easy schedule to boot.
Minnesota Vikings (DT2, 9.01)
The Vikings defense is improved with the addition of DE Jared Allen. They are great against the run with a host of playmakers in the secondary.
New England Patriots (DT5, 11.04)
Asante Samuel is gone, but these are the Patriots, so count on them figuring things out. The Pats’ schedule is extremely easy compared to last year, so that should offset the loss of Samuel.
Our goal is to find two mediocre (or better) defenses available late in the draft that have a favorable combined schedule. We removed the top eight ADP defenses (because they weren’t likely to be available) and the seven-worst defenses (because they stink). Using data from Footballguys.com, we calculated the combined strength of schedule (SOS) of the 136 possible team combinations. We’re recommending the Bills/Seahawks (156.6), because both defenses are pretty talented, but here are a few of the best SOS combinations: Saints/Bills (161.9), Panthers/Broncos (161.6), Saints/Jets (160.3) Broncos/Bills (157.1), Broncos/Seahawks (156.3), Panthers/Bills (156.2), Broncos/Raiders (156.0) and the Bills/Packers (151.4). Just pick a combo and play the better matchup week to week.
Wondering who had the worst combination? It was the Redskins/Browns, who had a combined strength of schedule of 117.4. And for a closer look at the DTBC approach, head on over to The Scores Report.
Jacksonville Jaguars (DT7, 11.10)
The Jags lost DT Michael Stroud, but otherwise it’s pretty much the same unit. A tougher schedule might cause problems.
Pittsburgh Steelers (DT6, 11.07)
The same old Steelers just need to stay healthy, especially Troy Polamalu. The schedule is quite a bit tougher, so don’t overspend on Pittsburgh.
Dallas Cowboys (DT3, 10.06)
The Cowboys had an easy schedule last year, but it gets tougher in 2008. Zach Thomas could be a big addition if he can stay healthy. They also re-signed FS Ken Hamlin.
Chicago Bears (DT8, 12.08)
The Bears defense should continue to be good, if they can stay healthy. They worked out contracts with LBs Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher, and Devin Hester is the best return man in the game.
New York Giants (DT9, 13.08)
The G-men retained DC Steve Spagnola and Aaron Ross is an up and coming CB. How much will this team miss Michael Strahan?
The Ravens were a huge fantasy disappointment last season, and a much tougher schedule is a sign of another bad season.
Indianapolis Colts (DT4, 11.01)
The key for the Colts is for Bob Sanders and Dwight Freeney to stay healthy. The schedule is a bit tougher.
As long as DC Monte Kiffin is there, the Bucs will be at least decent. They have successfully infused the defense with some youth. The 2008 schedule is a whole lot easier, too.
The Hawks are one of the most underrated defenses in the league. Julian Peterson and Patrick Kerney have added a lot of punch to the lineup. An easier schedule makes Seattle a nice sleeper pick.
Green Bay Packers (DT11, 14.01)
The Packers are solid up front and have a great (but aging) pair of CBs. Safety play is a concern, but they held their own last season.
Philadelphia Eagles (DT16, 16.10)
The Eagles upgraded to Asante Samuel at CB, and should fare better if the offense plays well (i.e. Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook stay healthy). Don’t overspend though; the Eagles have a tough schedule.
Buffalo Bills (DT17, 16.11)
The Bills added DT Marcus Stroud and they’re finally getting healthy. This is another sleeper defense, but the offense has to do its part.
Oakland Raiders (DT19, 18.11)
The Raiders are looking better with the addition of DeAngelo Hall. Teams will struggle to throw on them, but can they stop the run?
The Titans retained Albert Haynesworth and they have a good secondary. Expect a good 2008, thought the schedule is a little tougher.
Washington Redskins (DT14, 16.04)
An already solid defense upgraded with the addition of Jason Taylor. A tougher schedule should keep your expectations in check.
Denver Broncos (DT18, 16.12)
Denver’s schedule is a lot better and the team has a pair of great corners, but they rely on the blitz too much. Not bad as a part of a DTBC.
Carolina Panthers (DT15, 16.06)
The Panthers added some depth, and they have good corners. Their safeties are still an issue, but an easy schedule is reason for optimism.
New York Jets (N/A)
The Jets DT should be better. They added LB Calvin Pace and have a decent secondary. Vernon Gholston should bring some pass rush. The offense will be better with Brett Favre in town.
New Orleans Saints (N/A)
The addition of LB Jonathan Vilma, CB Randall Gay and DT Sedrick Ellis should give the Saints’ defense more firepower.
Cleveland Browns (N/A)
Added DT Sean Rodgers, but how will he do in a 3-4? Corey Williams is another good addition. On paper, the Browns’ defense looks better.
San Francisco 49ers (N/A)
Upgraded with DE Justin Smith, LB Patrick Willis is a rising star. If the offense can make a leap, it will certainly help the DT.
Houston Texans (N/A)
The Texans are developing. Mario Williams is a star in the making, but the team has too many holes. The secondary is brutal.
Cincinnati Bengals (N/A)
The Bengals lost DE Justin Smith and didn’t make any significant improvements other than drafting LB Keith Rivers.
Arizona Cardinals (N/A)
Shifting Antrel Rolle to free safety was a smart move. The Cardinals’ secondary is pretty good, but the unit lacks a pash rush.
Kansas City Chiefs (N/A)
The Chiefs have a good defensive line. They lost DE Jared Allen but added DT Glenn Dorsey in the draft.
St. Louis Rams (N/A)
Leonard Little and Chris Long give the team a pair of quick defensive ends, but the secondary is pretty sketchy. The schedule is much easier in 2008, however.
Atlanta Falcons (N/A)
The Falcons lost CB DeAngelo Hall and don’t figure to be any better, though their schedule is tad easier.
Detroit Lions (N/A)
The Lions lost DT Sean Rodgers and didn’t do much to improve this summer. A much tougher schedule spells trouble for this fantasy defense.
Miami Dolphins (N/A)
This unit is going from bad to worse. They lost Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor. An easier schedule gives some reason for optimism.