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Most fantasy football drafts utilize a “snake” draft where teams pick 1-12 in odd rounds and 12-1 in even rounds. Crafty owners can take advantage of the characteristics of such a draft if their draft position is one, two or three spots from either end – so those owners with the #2, #3, #4, #9, #10 or #11 picks (in a 12-team draft) should pay attention.

Here’s the situation: you have the #3 pick in the draft and the two owners ahead of you select Tomlinson and Holmes in the first round. You take a RB, let’s say Shaun Alexander, and the draft proceeds. Now you’re up again with the 2.10 (#22) pick and you have the following group to choose from:

Torry Holt, Steven Jackson, Brian Westbrook, Curtis Martin, Joe Horn

Let’s say you like Holt a lot, quite a bit more than Horn. But you know that RBs are important and you want to select one of the three, but you can’t decide which one. What do you do?

Take Holt.

Why?

The two owners picking #1 and #2 each have two picks before your next pick. Both have already taken a RB so it isn’t likely that either owner is going to select two RBs, leaving you with at least one of the three RBs to pick at 3.03. By selecting Holt (whom you value much more than the next WR, Horn) you get the best WR on the board while also getting a solid #2 RB. Since it didn’t matter which RB of the three you got, you let the other two owners make the tough decision, while you laugh all the way to the playoffs.

Now let’s say you’re in the same draft slot and your pick is up at 6.10. So far you’ve selected the following players:

Alexander (RB), Holt (WR), Martin (RB), Anquan Boldin (WR), Jason Witten (TE)

Not a bad squad, but you have no QB. At 6.10, you’re selecting from the following group:

Brett Favre, Derrick Mason, Deion Branch, Tom Brady, Eric Moulds

You notice that the team selecting #2 doesn’t yet have a QB while the team selecting #1 has Daunte Culpepper. You can safely assume that #1 won’t select another QB so soon, but #2 will probably select their first QB before you pick at 7.03. You like both Favre and Brady, but you really like Mason over the other available WRs. In this case, you take Mason and pass on Favre and Brady as one of them will probably be available at 7.03.

This principle is applicable to all positions. Whether it’s a TE in the middle rounds, or a kicker or a defense in the late rounds, being able to predict your opponents’ actions gives you an advantage during the draft. The key to this strategy is knowing what players the #1 and #2 teams have already taken so you can use that information to your advantage. In live drafts, it is often difficult to draft your own team as well as keep track of the other teams, but if you only pay attention to the important teams – in this case the teams picking #1 and #2 – it shouldn’t be much of a burden.


Send any questions or comments to jpaulsen@bullz-eye.com.