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Wondering who you should take in the first round, or if Julius Jones is a better pick than Ahman Green this year? Find answers to all of your questions on weekly Fantasy Football Q&As from The Scores Report, The National Sports Blog.


I’ve been playing fantasy football for more than 10 years now, and while I certainly don’t win every league every year, my teams are usually at or near the top of the standings at the end of the season. I don’t know what it takes to qualify as an “expert,” as many fantasy football writers on the internet claim to be, but I am knowledgeable about the game and would like to pass on some basics as well as some advanced concepts to the faithful BE readers who could use a few tips to help make their fantasy teams more competitive.


PRIOR TO DRAFT DAY

Know your scoring system – Fantasy football scoring isn’t standard. Different leagues reward players for different accomplishments and this makes it difficult for the experts to provide pre-season player rankings. For example, some leagues reward players with one point per reception. Obviously, if you have a running back that catches a lot of passes (i.e. Brian Westbrook), his value will be enhanced in this type of league as compared to a league which does not give one point per reception. This type of scoring system also makes WRs more valuable in comparison to the other positions. For these reasons, it is not wise to use generic “magazine” rankings on draft day. They are often out of date and may not apply to your league’s scoring system.

Know your roster requirements – Some leagues require two starting RBs while others have one starting RB and one flex (RB/WR/TE) position. If your league requires you to start two RBs each week, it makes the RB position all the more important. If you have a flex spot instead of a second RB, it makes WRs more draftable.

Find out your draft position – Most leagues utilize a snake draft (1-12 in odd rounds and 12-1 in even rounds) so if you are in a redraft league – a league where all players are eligible for draft – knowing your draft position can help you prepare. Antsports.com offers an average draft summary that lets you see the average draft position (ADP) of players selected in recent mock drafts held at the site. This will give you an idea of what players might be available at a certain draft position. Here’s an example:

 

This represents the ADP for the first two rounds (in a 12-team league) as a snapshot in mid-July. Using Shaun Alexander as an example – his ADP is 1.03, which means that on average he is being selected as the third pick in the first round. The highest he was picked was 1.02 while the lowest was 1.07. His standard deviation of 1.18 means that he is generally picked close to his ADP. Players with higher standard deviations (i.e. Peyton Manning ~ 3.5) have shown more variance in their pick position. The final column indicates the number of drafts that the player was selected during the ADP time period, which is customizable.

So if you are picking #6, you will have the sixth and 18th selections in the first two rounds. Looking at the first pick, you will probably be choosing among the following group: James, Manning, McAllister, McGahee and Portis. You can also add Lewis and Moss to that list if you feel they are worthy. Your job is to rank these players so when your pick is up, you don’t have to put much effort into making a choice. One QB and one WR are on that list (Manning and Moss, respectively) while the rest are RBs. If you decide to select Manning or Moss with the sixth pick, you better have a plan in place to fill your RB slot(s), either with the 18th pick or in later rounds with players that probably have higher risk.

With the 18th selection, you’re likely looking at choosing among the players listed 17-24 with a slim to decent shot at the guys ranked 12-16. If you’ve already selected Manning, you should cross Culpepper off your list. If you’ve already selected Moss, you’ll probably want to leave the other WRs alone, unless you have a plan to fill your RB slot(s) later in the draft. With the average draft tool, you can effectively plan your draft. Drafts are very fluid, and the less experienced the players are the more variance you’ll see, but with a solid plan you should be in good shape.

Rank players by position – In addition to providing lots of great subscriber information, Footballguys.com offers a Value Based Drafting program, which uses MS Excel to rank players based on their statistical projections (which you can modify) and your scoring system and roster requirements. They update the projections regularly up until the start of the season. You can use this tool as a blueprint for your draft – you’ll be calm and collected while your opponents will be scrambling to make picks when things don’t go their way.


THE NIGHT BEFORE THE DRAFT

Injury updates – Peruse Rotoworld and ESPN and make sure you didn’t miss any major injuries during preseason. You don’t want to be the dope that drafts Marcel Shipp after the Cardinals lost him for the season.


DRAFT DAY – FIRST SEVERAL ROUNDS

Draft RBs early – There is a reason that 75% of the players on the included ADP list are RBs. As a general rule, if you have the best backfield, you have a good chance at winning your league. This makes the RB position the most important on your roster. No other position falls off more quickly on draft day, so wise owners usually select two RBs in their first three picks.

Draft WRs next – Once your starting RBs are set, it’s time to focus on the available WRs. The aforementioned VBD rankings are a good way to go early on, but you might be faced with some tough decisions in rounds 4-6. When in doubt, go with proven commodities over potential, unless the players with potential are stepping into #1 roles on their respective teams (i.e. Steve Smith, Drew Bennett). A good formula for WRs in rounds 5-10 is selecting second- and third-year guys who are #1 or #2 options on their team – this is the perfect situation for a breakout year.

Draft QBs by value – Currently, there are only four QBs going in the first four rounds (Manning, Culppepper, McNabb and Bulger). Don’t jump on any of these guys unless you can get them a round later than their ADP, or unless your VBD tells you to. There are a ton of guys going in rounds 5-8 that will make capable to great starters for your team. There are 14-15 guys that I’d be comfortable starting under the right circumstances, so there’s no reason to spend an early pick on a QB unless there is obvious value available.

Draft a TE when you can – I am an advocate of trying to grab a great TE (Gonzalez or Gates) early on. It is nice to have a weapon at the normally dead TE position. However, last year was a renaissance of sorts for the position as there were several TEs that had great seasons. Unless you can get Gonzo or Gates in third round, I’d wait to grab a TE until value is apparent. Guys like Todd Heap, Jason Witten and Alge Crumpler could overtake Gonzo or Gates if they have an off year.


DRAFT DAY – MID TO LATE ROUNDS

Wait on kickers & defenses – Don’t be a lemming and start taking kickers and defenses when the others do (and definitely don’t be the first). Instead, load up on RBs and WRs with breakout potential and wait until the final rounds to take your kicker and defense. There is very little consistency year to year with these positions and it is difficult to accurately predict performance, so they are not worth a high draft pick. Generally, if you take the 10th to 12th kicker or defense, you’ve got a good shot at finishing in the top 8 or better at that position. If your pick is a clunker, there are always kickers and defenses that are left on the free agent pool that end up in the top 10 at the end of the season.

Back up your studs – Depending on your league’s roster size, use late-round picks on the backups for your RBs. In the case of a more fragile back like Priest Holmes, you will need to spend a middle round pick on his backup, Larry Johnson. If your stud goes down, it’s nice to be able to plug his replacement into your starting lineup.


ONCE THE SEASON STARTS

Free agency – About 90% of the work is done on draft day, but that doesn’t mean your job is done. The first few weeks of the season are very important. Pay attention to the box scores and see if there are any surprise players that may be available in your league’s free-agent pool. Injuries will also crop up – if a stud goes down, don’t assume his owner drafted his backup. You might be able to pick up a starting RB or WR for next to nothing. Last year Reuben Droughns (1240 yds, 6 TDs) and Nick Goings (691 yds, 6 TDs over the last seven games) were both probably in your league’s free agency pool at the start of the season.

Trades – As the season wears on, don’t be afraid to improve your team by way of trade. But don’t just trade for the sake of trading. Make sure that you are improving your team and follow the old rule of the stock market: buy low and sell high. If you have a player who is outperforming what you really think he’s capable of, look to move him for an established (and possibly underachieving) star. Many owners will get discouraged if their stars aren’t performing and you may be able to take advantage.


SUMMARY

In the coming weeks, we’ll post a few other articles on advanced concepts to use on and after draft day. Like anything, the more preparation you do prior to draft day, the better your draft will go. But don’t over think things too much – there is such a thing as over preparation. Draft day is probably the best day of the fantasy football season – just relax and enjoy yourself.


Send any questions or comments to jpaulsen@bullz-eye.com.