What are value bets?
A value bet is a situation where the probability of a given outcome, holds greater odds than what the bookmaker’s odds reflect. Essentially, this means that you would be placing calculated bets that have higher chances of winning than simply following your emotions. In the long run, the aim is to give you an edge over the bookmaker, and of course, make money too.
Success in the betting industry is characterized by being able to find value bets consistently, and patiently betting on them with a well-thought-out staking plans. The plan must make maximum use of the value identified and overlooks how improbable the outcome of the game may seem.
Value bets take away the emotions and non-fact-based factors that may be in the way. More often than not, it leads you to stake your hard-earned money on a team that looks like they have no chances of winning.
How to calculate value bets
The clearest way to explain how to calculate value bets is through the coin toss example. Now, when you toss a coin, there are two definitive outcomes, which is the coin either landing on heads or tails. In this situation, the probability of it being either heads or tails is 50%, which is 0.5 in decimals. Assuming a bookmaker offers an odd of 3.10 for the coin to land on heads, you can calculate to know if it is a value bet or not with this formula:
Value = (Probability x Decimal Odds) – 1
Value =(0.5 x 3.10) – 1
Value = 0:55
Any odd that gives a number greater than zero is a value bet. Therefore, the 3.10 odds offered by the bookmaker is a value bet. However, sports betting is a little more uncertain as we cannot establish an exact probability of the outcome of the game.
The best you can do is work with an estimate, for example, who wins between Manchester City and Chelsea. Mancity may have a probability of 60% due to being a better team, while Chelsea 40%. However, this is just an estimate and can’t be said to be accurate. You can proceed to find some value bets here if you would rather leave the math to professionals.
How do you identify value bets?
Understanding and becoming good at identifying value bets takes time and effort like every other good thing. Here are a few tips to help out:
- Specialize in leagues and tournaments you prefer more;
- Get your probabilities right by understanding how it’s calculated;
- Play the bookmaker by setting your own prices, as it helps you pit your skill against experienced professionals;
- Keep in mind the fact that odds are determined by the market;
- Review your results to help you access how you have performed;
- Never give up.
Value betting is one of the best ways to get the most value from your money. Keep at it, and with a lot of dedication and practice, you can become good.
Tags: sports betting
