The NFL season kicks off tonight, so it’s not a bad time to take a look and the projected win totals team-by-team so you can make your over/under bets before the season starts.
The numbers below are a late-August / early-September consensus across major books (BetMGM, DraftKings and others), with Rams and Ravens consistently at the top and Arizona/Miami at the bottom. Lines can still tick a half-game before kickoff. Check your favorite sportsbook for their lines, and remember you can line shop some of these teams.
Los Angeles Rams — 11.5
This team has all the hype after trading for Myles Garrett and convincing Aaron Donald to come out of retirement. So the Rams are the market’s co-favorite after a strong 2025 and another year with Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay. Books have already moved this number up from 10.5, treating the Rams as a Super Bowl-level roster even in a brutal NFC West. Can Stafford replicate (or come close to) his monster year from 2025? I hope so, geven that I took him in fantasy football!
Baltimore Ravens — 11.5
Lamar Jackson’s health is the swing factor after an injury-hit 2025. Oddsmakers still price Baltimore as an AFC standard-bearer with a relatively manageable early schedule and a loaded supporting cast. Apart from Lamar’s health, we need to see how he does under a new offense. Jackson thrived in Todd Monken’s system so we’ll see how he does under this new regime. I think this win total is really high.
Buffalo Bills — 10.5
Josh Allen remains the safest high-floor bet in the league. The total assumes another 11-win-type season unless the AFC East or injuries intervene.
Detroit Lions — 10.5
Dan Campbell’s club is priced as a perennial NFC North threat with Jared Goff and a physical roster. The number is a bounce-back / stay-elite line after a disappointing 2025.
Philadelphia Eagles — 10.5
Jalen Hurts and a still-talented roster keep Philly in the 10–11 win band. The juice often leans under, which is the market’s way of saying 10 wins is the more likely landing spot than 11-plus.
Seattle Seahawks — 10.5
This team gets defending-champ pricing (they open the season in a Super Bowl rematch) with Mike Macdonald’s defense and Sam Darnold under center. Public money likes the over. Macdonald is one of the best coaches in the NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs — 10.5
This is a rebound number after a six-win 2025. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid still command a double-digit line even after a down year. The addition of Kenneth Walker gives them a weapon to trasnform the offense and take pressure off of Mahomes.
San Francisco 49ers — 10.5 (some books 9.5)
Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan keep San Francisco in the contender tier, but the NFC West and injury history keep the number from matching the Rams. It will be interesting to see if Mike Evans can stay healthy. He could have a monster year!
New England Patriots — 10.5 (some books 9.5)
Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel have the Patriots priced as an AFC East climber. The line has climbed from last year’s number as the rebuild accelerated. The concern here is the schedule. It’s much tougher this year.
Los Angeles Chargers — 10.5 (some books 9.5)
Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh get a high-9s / low-10s number. The AFC West is crowded, so books are split on whether this is a 10-win or 9-win team. The offense gets a real boost with Mike McDaniel as the new offensive coordinator.
Cincinnati Bengals — 10.5 (some books 9.5)
A healthy Joe Burrow plus defensive upgrades helps make the over case. The juice often favors the under, reflecting injury risk at QB. The weapons on offense are so good, so the Bengals could blow past this number if Burrow can stay healthy.
Houston Texans — 9.5
C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans keep Houston in the playoff conversation. The total is a step below the true elite but well above average. Stroud is the real wildcard here. He turned down a reasonable contract offer, so it could be interesting to see how he reacts if his struggles continue. I would stay away from this team even with their awesome defense.
Green Bay Packers — 9.5
Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur are treated as a solid NFC North playoff team, not quite at Lions level.
Chicago Bears — 9.5
The bears are one of the bigger risers on the board. The market has bought the Bears’ upward trajectory and is asking whether they can crack 10 wins. This is a bet on Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams. A great coach and a major talent with a high ceiling.
Dallas Cowboys — 9.5
A middling-to-hopeful number for a talented but inconsistent roster. Public money often leans over; the price is close to even.
Denver Broncos — 9.5
Bo Nix and Sean Payton are priced as a fringe playoff club. The early season schedule is just brutal.
Jacksonville Jaguars — 9.5 (some books 8.5)
Books disagree here. The higher number prices continued AFC South progress; the lower one prices regression and a tougher slate.
Minnesota Vikings — 8.5
A mid-pack NFC North total. The market sees a competitive team that is a step behind Detroit, Green Bay, and Chicago. Kevin O’Connell is an excellent coach and he quickly gave up on J.J. McCarthy in favor of Kyler Murray. This is a bet on that combination.
Pittsburgh Steelers — 8.5
Classic Steelers floor: good enough to hover around .500-plus, not priced as a division favorite in a loaded AFC North. You have to wonder if this team takes a step back with Mike McCarthy and an aging Aaron Rodgers.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 8.5
NFC South pricing that assumes they stay in the mix but don’t run away with the division. Baker Mayfield was on fire early in the 2025 season but then was a mess the rest of the way. He signed a new contract so it will be interesting to see how he performs.
Indianapolis Colts — 7.5
A rebuild / transition number in the AFC South. Books expect them to be competitive but not a 9-win club. You have to wonder how Daniel Jones can bounce back.
New Orleans Saints — 7.5
Similar NFC South mid-tier line. Some analysts like the over if the offense holds together.
Atlanta Falcons — 7.5 (some books 6.5)
QB uncertainty and pass-rush injuries have books shading this toward the under. The NFC South still offers a path to 8 wins. Tua has looked terrible and you have to wonder what this team looks like if Tua can’t perform. Kevin Stefanski is a good coach, but we saw him struggle in Cleveland when the QB position wasn’t settled.
Carolina Panthers — 7.5 (some books 6.5)
Another NFC South “can they get to 8?” number. The over draws some public interest on a young roster. Bryce Young has really bounced back. Can he keep it up?
New York Giants — 7.5
This team is priced as improved but not yet a playoff lock in the NFC East. I’m worried about Jaxon Dart and injuries. He doesn’t seem to be very smart about avoiding contact.
Washington Commanders — 7.5
This is down from higher totals in recent years. The market is waiting to see if last year’s jump was sustainable. Jayden Daniels is a stud, but will he stay healthy?
Tennessee Titans — 6.5
AFC South bottom-half number. Books expect a tough year but not a total collapse. Cam Ward hasn’t looked good in preseason, so this one seems risky.
Cleveland Browns — 5.5
Low-end AFC North pricing after roster turnover. The over is often juiced as a “they might steal 6” bet. Todd Monken is a good coach, and this team is loaded with young talent. The line will be much better if they can stay healthy. But the QB situation is a mess. Starting Deshaun Watson has created plenty of drama.
Las Vegas Raiders — 5.5
One of the few lines that moved down a full win during camp. The market has soured on the rebuild in the short term.
New York Jets — 5.5
AFC East floor. The number assumes another losing season unless the quarterback situation breaks right.
Miami Dolphins — 3.5–4.5
Among the two lowest totals in the league. Books have given up on a quick turnaround after a brutal 2025 and a thin roster. The Doplhins are basically tanking. That said, if Malik Willis is the real deal, this team could steal some wins.
Arizona Cardinals — 3.5
The lowest number on most boards. A hard schedule, a bad 2025 finish, and defensive questions explain why 4 wins is treated as a stretch.
