It’s been quite a journey for Sam Darnold. From the bright lights of USC to the harsh scrutiny of New York, through stints as a journeyman backup and starter, Darnold now has the opportunity to lead his team to a Super Bowl title. As the Seattle Seahawks prepare to face the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX on February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California, the question looms: Will Darnold cap his remarkable resurgence with a Lombardi Trophy? Bettors seem to think so, with the Seahawks installed as 4.5-point favorites and Darnold the +120 frontrunner for MVP honors.
Darnold’s journey began with sky-high expectations. Selected third overall by the New York Jets in the 2018 NFL Draft after a stellar college career at Southern California, he became the youngest quarterback to start a season opener in the Super Bowl era at just 21 years and 97 days old. But he was with the Jets, and we’re learning that many so-called “busts” have a lot to do with where a player lands.
He had some good moments. But then he was plagued by turnovers, inconsistent protection, and the infamous “seeing ghosts” moment during a Monday Night Football drubbing by the Patriots in 2019. He posted a dismal 13-25 record as a starter, with a 78.6 passer rating, before being traded to the Carolina Panthers in 2021.
In Carolina, Darnold’s struggles persisted. Shuttling in and out of the lineup over two seasons, he managed just a 77.3 passer rating in 18 games, hampered by injuries and a revolving door of coaches. By 2023, his career hit rock bottom: a one-year backup role with the San Francisco 49ers, where he started only one game and threw just 46 passes.
Yet, this low-profile stint proved pivotal. Under Kyle Shanahan’s tutelage, Darnold absorbed a sophisticated offensive scheme, rebuilding his mechanics and confidence away from the spotlight. “That year in San Francisco was huge,” Darnold reflected recently. “It was about learning, not just playing.”
The turnaround accelerated in Minnesota. Signing with the Vikings in 2024, Darnold seized the starting job and erupted in 2025, leading the team to a 14-3 regular-season record—joining Tom Brady as one of the few quarterbacks with back-to-back 14-win seasons. He threw for over 4,000 yards, 32 touchdowns, and just 10 interceptions, showcasing poise and arm talent that had eluded him earlier. But then he suffered a wild-card loss to the Rams where he was sacked nine times, and the Vikings made the boneheaded decision to move on (their GM was just fired).
Enter the Seahawks, who faced their own quarterback crossroads. After trading Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders in the offseason, Seattle signed Darnold in free agency. It made a ton of sense, though many were still sleptical of whether Darnold could maintain his Minnesota success.
Preseason odds pegged the Seahawks at +6000 to win the Super Bowl. Yet, under head coach Mike Macdonald’s defensive-minded regime, Darnold thrived again. He orchestrated a balanced attack, leaning on running back Kenneth Walker III and wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba while minimizing mistakes. Seattle’s 12-5 regular season culminated in playoff upsets over the Eagles and Lions, propelling them to the NFC title. Darnold played well as we can see from his stats (3,800 yards, 28 TDs, and a 102.4 rating).
Now, Super Bowl LX offers Darnold a huge opportunity. It’s a rematch of Super Bowl XLIX, where the Patriots snatched victory from Seattle on Malcolm Butler’s goal-line interception. This time, the roles reverse: Seattle enters as favorites, with moneyline odds at -225 to -238, implying a 67-70% win probability.
The Patriots, preseason +8000 long shots themselves, counter with rookie sensation Drake Maye, whose +235 MVP odds reflect his dynamic playmaking.
Sharp money has poured in on Seattle, including a reported $1 million wager on the Seahawks, pushing the spread from an opening -3.5 to -4.5.
A win in the Super Bowl would etch Darnold alongside Kurt Warner and Nick Foles as ultimate underdog champions. It would also provide more evidence that many quarterbacks need more time to develop and deserve multiple chances in the NFL.
Can Darnold script the perfect ending? We like his chances.
