JJ Spaun – Winner of 2025 US Open
Scottie Scheffler is the clear pre-tournament favorite to win the 2026 U.S. Open starting later today at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York. Odds varied slightly by sportsbook but consistently showed him as a heavy favorite around +450 to +550 (implying roughly a 15–18% implied probability of winning outright). Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm followed as the next tier, with the rest of the field at longer odds. Defending champ J.J. Spaun is an underdog in the ~+5000–6000 range.
Here’s a summary of the odds out there at the various sportsbooks:
- Scottie Scheffler: +450 to +550 (favorite across books)
- Rory McIlroy: +850 to +1200 (roughly +930–1100 commonly)
- Jon Rahm: +1175 to +1300 (or ~12-1)
- Xander Schauffele: +1600 to +1900
- Cameron Young: +1900 (or 19-1)
- Tommy Fleetwood / Matt Fitzpatrick: ~+2200
- Ludvig Åberg: ~+2500
- Bryson DeChambeau / Brooks Koepka / others: +3000 to +4000 range
Why is Scheffler was such a big favorite? As World No. 1, he entered with exceptional consistency (top-25 in his last 32+ events) and ball-striking stats that fit Shinnecock’s demanding setup perfectly. A win will complete his career Grand Slam. His odds are his longest for a U.S. Open since 2023 but still far shorter than anyone else’s.
Shinnecock Hills is a classic links-style track with firm greens, fescue rough, wind, and runoffs and the course has hosted the U.S. Open multiple times (e.g., Brooks Koepka won there in 2018 at +1). It’s known for punishing setups with low scoring and high difficulty, favoring complete players with strong iron play, course management, and mental toughness over pure bombers.
The last few U.S. Opens saw some long-shot winners (e.g., Wyndham Clark at 100-1 in 2023, J.J. Spaun at 150-1 in 2025), which is why we’re seeing betting interest existed on mid-tier names like Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick, or Koepka (due to his Shinnecock history).
The full 156-player field is loaded with all the top stars, so this should be a fun tournament.
