The 2026 French Open is set to begin at Roland Garros, and the men’s side has a clear story: with Carlos Alcaraz sidelined by a wrist injury, Jannik Sinner stands as a massive favorite to claim his first title on the red clay of Paris.
This is a shame given the epic battle we saw between Alcaraz and Sinner last year. Alcaraz defeated Sinner in the 2025 French Open men’s singles final in one of the most epic matches in tennis history. The match lasted 5 hours and 29 minutes — the longest final in French Open history. Sinner dominated the early stages, taking the first two sets and appearing on the verge of victory. He held three championship points in the fourth set (at 5-3, 0-40 on Alcaraz’s serve). Alcaraz saved all of them with remarkable resilience and forced a fifth set. This victory gave Alcaraz his second French Open title in a row and his fifth Grand Slam overall. Sinner, despite the heartbreaking loss, bounced back strongly later that season (including a Wimbledon title). The match is widely regarded as a classic and often ranked among the greatest finals ever played due to the quality, drama, and physical toll on both players.
So without Alcaraz in the field, Sinner is listed at -310 to win the men’s singles title. Those are the second-shortest pre-tournament odds for any Grand Slam event since at least 1990. The only shorter line belongs to Rafael Nadal at -400 ahead of the 2009 French Open (a tournament he famously lost in the fourth round). Just before Alcaraz’s withdrawal was announced, the two players were much closer in the market, with Alcaraz at +150 and Sinner at -164. It will be interesting to see if any of the other players can make things interesting.
While the men’s draw has a heavy favorite, the women’s tournament looks far more competitive. Aryna Sabalenka holds a slight edge at +250, just ahead of Iga Swiatek at +275. Elena Rybakina and defending champion Coco Gauff both sit at +650, followed by Mirra Andreeva at +900.
