2006 Tourney Countdown
By John Paulsen (jpaulsen@bullz-eye.com)
03/13/2006
ALSO:
See John's Bracket Breakdown for a
closer look at the NCAA Tournament, region by region, and don't miss his
Upset Couples
bracket.
March Madness makes this time of year the most
exciting in all of sports. Starting off with Championship Week, where the men
are separated from the boys, all the way through the Final Four, it’s more than
a full month of single-elimination, pressure packed action. We’ll see freshmen
grow up before our eyes as well as seniors laying it all on the line in what may
be the final games of their basketball careers. As we get ready for Thursday, I
thought it appropriate to put together a countdown to the tourney, starting
with….
Jordan Farmar, UCLA
I had the opportunity to go to two of UCLA’s Pac-10 tournament games and Farmar
really makes UCLA go. Offensively, the Bruins are a bit challenged, especially
down low, so that makes Farmar’s penetration all that more important. They like
to run a pick and roll and let him create. He’s averaging 14 points and six
assists on the season and has scored in double figures 13 of the last 16 games.
He doesn’t get a lot of love on the national level, but I expect a good
tournament will change that. If he doesn’t play well, UCLA is sure to make an
early exit.
J.P. Batista, Gonzaga
With teammate Adam Morrison getting all the press, Batista has flown under the
radar nationally. He’s averaging 19 points and 10 boards a game, while shooting
a stellar .593 from the field. He is the definition of a “wide body” and relies
on deep post position to get lots of high percentage shots. He is almost
unstoppable from the low post and he is going to have to play well if the
Bulldogs are to advance this March. On Sunday, Jay Bilas called him “one of the
best power forwards in the country,” and Batista will have an opportunity to
prove that statement true over the next few weeks.
Josh McRoberts, Duke
As a long-time fan of the Blue Devils, this was the first year that I was
planning to leave Duke out of the Final Four as I filled out my bracket. After
the losses to Florida State and North Carolina, the team looked tired and
vulnerable. They didn’t exactly roll through the ACC tourney, but they played a
lot better and much of that has to do with the play of McRoberts. With North
Carolina’s Tyler Hansbrough grabbing all the “diaper dandy” headlines in the
conference, McRoberts has slowly but surely increased his level of play, making
me reconsider Duke for my Final Four. He was terrific in the ACC tournament,
averaging 13 points and six boards over three games, providing the Blue Devils
with a much-needed third scoring option. He can jump out of the gym, handle the
rock, drop dimes and is a pretty solid shooter.
NBADraft.net actually has
McRoberts going ahead of both J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams if he were enter
the 2006 NBA Draft. If he continues to play this well, Duke will be a very tough
out.
Marcus Slaughter, San Diego State
The 6’9” junior is averaging 17 points and 11 rebounds per game for the Aztecs,
recording 17 double-doubles this season. In the Mountain West Conference
tournament, he averaged 16 points and 15 rebounds, so he is a load down low.
Earlier in the year in SDSU’s loss against Cal, he scored 22 points and grabbed
13 rebounds against Leon Powe, one of the best frontcourt players in the
country. His first round match-up with Indiana’s Marco Killingsworth should be a
dandy.
Nick Fazekas, Nevada
The 6’11” Fazekas has been superb this season, averaging 22 points and 10 boards
a game, and has tallied 17 double-doubles this season. His shooting percentage
is .533, which is great considering that 21% of his field goal attempts were
from beyond the arc. That means that he’s shooting a stellar .593 from inside
the arc. He’s not real strong, but he’s long and rangy and is one of the best
big men in the country. Nevada gets no play nationally, but a potential match-up
with Boston College in the second round would be very intriguing.
J.J. Redick’s legs
Much was made of Redick’s 29% shooting in the last four games of the regular
season. As his shooting goes, so do the Blue Devils, who went 2-2 in those
games, with losses to Florida State and North Carolina. Although some pundits
said that Redick’s minutes were wearing him down, Coach K alluded to the
emotional fatigue that Redick was experiencing as a result of all the records he
was breaking during the season. In the ACC tournament, Redick played very well,
shooting 45% over the three games. He banged his knee in the game against Wake
Forest, but didn’t seem affected by the injury in the championship game against
Boston College. For Duke to make it to the Final Four, it is crucial that Redick
shoot the ball well, and if his legs hold up, he will.
Rudy Gay’s heart
Though he’s considered the top prospect likely to enter the 2006 NBA Draft, he
has yet to prove that he has a killer instinct. He’s a great shooter and
athletic enough to attack the rim, but he tends to float around on the perimeter
whether or not his shot is going down. He is talented enough to take over games,
but he hasn’t done that on a consistent basis. For UConn to win it all, Gay
needs to quit being so soft and act like he wants to win. If he doesn’t, he’ll
surely run into some opposing teams who will be happy to feast on his
indifference.
Allan Ray’s eye
Villanova officials have been avoiding speculation about Ray’s availability for
their first round game this Friday. He’s going to see an eye specialist this
week and they anticipate that he’ll be able to return to practice sometime this
week. In Villanova’s four-guard lineup, the 6’2” Ray often covers the opposing
team’s power forward. He’s averaging 19 points and four boards a game, so his
presence is crucial. In the two meetings with UConn, Ray’s play was the
difference in each game. He shot the ball really well in the game at home and
the Wildcats pulled off the upset. Thirteen days later, in the game at UConn, he
went 6 for 16 and Villanova lost by double digits.
Darius Washington’s head
In last year’s
Conference USA tournament final game against Louisville, Memphis guard
Darius Washington had the opportunity to give the Tigers an NCAA birth when he
went to the line to shoot three free throws. Memphis was trailing by two points
and he had just been fouled on a three-point attempt at the buzzer. Washington
hit the first free throw and went on to miss the next two attempts. This year,
he’ll likely be put in a situation where he has to seal the game at the line, so
the question is – can he stay out of his own head?
Jim Calhoun, Connecticut
Expectations are high for UConn as the team is the odds on favorite to win the
title. The Huskies are probably the most talented team in the country, but they
aren’t always in it mentally or emotionally, and it has cost them games this
season. Calhoun will have to manage everyone’s egos in order to get the team to
play to its potential and he’ll have to deal with the headaches of playing so
close to home (added pressure, people looking for tickets, etc.). Considering
that anything short of a title will be considered a failure, he’s got a tough
task ahead.
Roy Williams, North Carolina
Four freshmen are playing more than 15 minutes a game for the Tar Heels and only
one player, senior David Noel, has any real NCAA experience. Williams has taken
these kids from infancy (losing to USC by 15) to adulthood (beating Duke in
Durham), and deserves serious consideration for Coach of the Year honors. But
will Williams be able to keep his young team focused and playing well deep into
the tournament? One thing about coaching freshmen is that you don’t know them as
well as your veterans so things can get tricky when you get into rough waters
and are wondering what button to push. The Tar Heels have enough talent to go to
the Final Four or they could drop their (potential) second-round game against
Michigan State. It all depends on what buttons Williams decides to push.
Ben Howland, UCLA
They say that defense wins championships, so that bodes well for the Bruins, but
do they have enough offense to win a title? Howland has two good guards to work
with in sophomores Jordan Farmar and Aaron Afflalo, but not much else. Center
Ryan Hollins has a pretty nice game, but he gets his points with his energy and
still doesn’t have much of a post game. Howland’s biggest challenge is to help
his team get points in the clutch. Considering that, this deep into the season,
they still haven’t proved they can score consistently, that may prove to be an
arduous task.
#11 San Diego State (vs. Indiana)
I saw some discontent on the faces of the Hoosiers in their Big Ten tourney game
against Ohio State and they’ll need to pull it together as they travel to Utah
to play the Aztecs. SDSU has a great player in Marcus Slaughter and he should be
able to contain Indiana’s best player, Marco Killingsworth. Keep in mind that
the Aztecs have experience playing at altitude, whereas the Hoosiers do not.
Fatigue could be a serious factor in this one.
#11 UW-Milwaukee (vs. Oklahoma)
I played basketball with UWM coach Rob Jeter and I have to give his team some
love heading into their match-up with the Sooners. Oklahoma is only 1-4 against
top-30 teams and the Panthers, who play at a breakneck pace, should give them
all they can handle. UWM had a lot of success in last year’s tournament, where
they gave national runner-up Illinois a very tough game. This is a veteran team
and the contrast of styles should favor the Panthers.
#4 Boston College
It took an inspired game from the Blue Devils to send the Eagles home from the
ACC tournament empty handed, but the Eagles may have the last laugh. Led by
veterans Craig Smith and Jared Dudley, BC is a force inside and are executing as
well as anyone in the country. They are steady and resilient, and have the
swagger of a championship-caliber team. The biggest roadblock in their region is
Villanova, but if the Eagles can figure out how to handle the Wildcats’
four-guard lineup, they should be able to advance past Florida, Ohio State or
Georgetown to the Final Four.
Don’t like my list? You’re welcome to sound off at
The Scores Report, the National Sports Blog.
|
 |
|
