Bullz-Eye's College Football Game of the Week
11/30/2006
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We’ll be dissecting one big college football match-up every week throughout the season. The game could be a big rivalry, it could have Top-25 implications, or it could just be a battle between two powerhouse programs.
Want to get in on the action? Visit our College Football Live Lines page to compare the spread from four major handicappers before picking your winner. Good luck!
This week’s match up: (#8) Arkansas at (#4) Florida
Date: Saturday, Dec. 2
Time: 6:00pm ET on CBS
Why to tune in:
With Arkansas being knocked off last week at home vs. LSU, this SEC Championship game has lost some of its luster. Nevertheless, BCS implications are the biggest reason to tune in to this game on Saturday. Florida needs a win to keep whatever hope it still has for playing in the title game, but a win by USC over UCLA and the Gators are out regardless of this outcome, much to the dismay of Florida head coach Urban Meyer. Without a playoff system, college football fans are left with the scenario of a team like Florida not even getting a shot to prove that it’s the best team in the country. The Razorbacks, on the other hand, thought that they would be in the same spot as Florida entering this contest, but a loss to the Tigers has Arkansas playing a spoiler role.
When Arkansas has the ball:
The biggest issue with the Razorback offense was on display last Saturday vs. LSU. Arkansas is too one dimensional with Darren McFadden essentially acting as the whole offense, though admittedly McFadden isn’t a terrible weapon to build a scoring attack around. The sophomore has totaled 1,485 rushing yards this season with 14 touchdowns. McFadden is gaining yards at a 6.1 per carry clip and has hit the century mark seven times this season. In last week’s loss, the Heisman hopeful ran for 182 yards and virtually kept the Razorbacks in the ballgame by himself. This contest is where Florida really misses a defensive tackle like Marcus Thomas. The program dismissed Thomas after violating team policies for the second time this season. The Gators still have plenty of weapons to keep McFadden in check, however. Jarvis Moss has had a solid season and linebacker Earl Everett is a tackling machine. The Gators rank 10th in the country in total defense, but the secondary shouldn’t get much work in this game. Arkansas quarterbacks Mitch Mustain and Casey Dick are hardly a threat to blow the game open with a vertical attack. Look for Meyer to contain McFadden the old fashioned way by loading up the box with extra defenders. If McFadden can get to the edge of a defense, he’s gone, so watch for Meyer to use his cornerbacks as containment much like some defenses use ends when playing a mobile quarterback. Florida won’t have any issue with McFadden if he can’t get to the outside.
When Florida has the ball:
The Gators’ best plan of attack this season has been keeping the opposition off balance. Chris Leak has proved himself a great leader by giving way to freshman Tim Tebow on designed passes. When Tebow enters a game, he is a threat to run or pass on every play. He makes the safeties’ job difficult because if they commit to the run too early, Tebow has them sucked in and can pass over the top of them. He also has the power in short yardage situations to pick up first downs in a Power-I formation. Arkansas plays the pass better than the run, so watch for Florida to get tailback DeShawn Wynn involved early and often. If Meyer can control the clock with Wynn, he can then set up the play action fake and take his shots downfield with receivers Dallas Baker and Andre Caldwell. The Razorbacks are probably going to have to commit strong safety Kevin Woods up to help stop Wynn, but don’t expect the same from free safety Michael Grant. Grant is a ball hawk who will most likely be left in centerfield to help fellow DB’s Chris Houston and Matterral Richardson with Baker and Caldwell.
Prediction:
Meyer has enough tape on McFadden to see what he can do. I doubt Florida is going to allow McFadden to get to the edges and run amuck through its secondary. The Gators will game plan to completely take away Arkansas’ only offensive threat and force the quarterbacks to beat them. I highly doubt that either Mustain or Dick can beat Florida if McFadden is held in check.
The Gators’ defense is too stout to let McFadden beat them on his own: Florida 24, Arkansas 14.
ARCHIVE:
Week 1: Florida State at Miami
Week 2: Ohio State at Texas
Week 3: LSU at Auburn
Week 4: Notre Dame at Michigan State
Week 5: Ohio State at Iowa
Week 6: LSU at Florida
Week 7: Florida at Auburn
Week 8: Georgia Tech at Clemson
Week 9: Georgia at Florida
Week 10: West Virginia at Louisville
Week 11: Louisville at Rutgers
Week 12: Michigan at Ohio State
Week 13: Notre Dame at USC
Week 14: Arkansas at Florida
Questions or comments? Send them to astalter@bullz-eye.com.