NBA free agency preview
06/27/2007
Paulsen Home / Sports Channel / Bullz-Eye Home
The NBA’s salary cap for last season was $53.1 million, which rose 7.3% from the previous season. Assuming a similar jump, the salary cap should be around $57 million for the 2007-08 season. Eighteen teams are already over the cap and five more (Sonics, Nets, Raptors, Hornets and Kings) have fewer than $7 million to spend on their draft picks and other free agents.
A team that wants to acquire a free agent but has no cap space has to negotiate a sign-and-trade with the player’s current team or sign the player to their mid-level exception. Each team gets one mid-level exception per year, which should be in the $5-$6 million range. A team that has cap space is free to sign whomever they want, providing any free agent contracts they add do not take them over the cap. Teams are only allowed to exceed the cap in order to re-sign their own free agents (or to sign a player to the mid-level or veteran’s minimum).
There is a two-week moratorium, which started July 1st, where teams can negotiate with free agents but deals can’t be made official until July 14th.
These are the seven teams that have the dough to be major players in free agency, along with a rough estimation of how much money they have to play with this summer:
Charlotte Bobcats, $31.2 M
Team Needs: SG, PF, C
With Michael Jordan on board to run things, the Bobcats promise to be very active this summer. Gerald Wallace will likely become a free agent since the team wants to upgrade the position and isn’t expected to re-sign him. It has been difficult to attract big-name free agents to Charlotte, but the team has enough money to overhaul the roster, so expect the Bobcats to make a big splash in July. They have the cap room to sign whomever they want, but they’ll need to convince a star or two that the franchise is serious about winning.
Milwaukee Bucks, $18.3 M
Team Needs: PF, SF, PG
The Bucks have been flirting with the idea of adding Chauncey Billups to the roster, which would make Mo Williams expendable, but Billups is probably only using the Bucks as leverage. Charlie Bell, a sharp-shooting combo guard, and Ruben Patterson are also free agents. Williams should be the team’s top offseason priority, but they have enough money to sign another major free agent like Rashard Lewis or Gerald Wallace, giving the Bucks a nice young core to build around.
Memphis Grizzlies, $14.6 M
Team Needs: PG, SG, PF
The Grizzlies have serious holes to fill in the backcourt, but it’s going to be tough to attract a big free agent to Memphis. Depending on how the team feels about rookie Kyle Lowry, the Grizzlies could re-sign Chucky Atkins, but it’s more likely they’ll go in another direction. It’s possible that they’ll extend an offer to Chauncey Billups, but it’s doubtful that he’ll want to join a team in the midst of rebuilding. Mo Williams is another possibility. There’s a chance that he could be turned off by the Bucks’ interest in Billups and decide to sign with the Grizzlies. Remember, Williams was born in Mississippi and went to school in Alabama, so a return to the South may not be a problem for him. Former Suns’ assistant Marc Iavaroni is the new head coach, so expect some changes this summer.
Detroit Pistons, $12.5 M
Team Needs: C, PG
It’s all about Chauncey Billups. He’s been severely underpaid for the last few years, so there’s a possibility that the Pistons won’t be willing to give him the payday he’s expecting. (Remember what happened with Ben Wallace last summer.) They could negotiate a sign-and-trade with the Bucks for Williams, but one way or another they’ll need to address the point guard situation this summer. Chris Webber is also a free agent, but it’s doubtful that the Pistons will be willing to spend much to bring him back.
Orlando Magic, $11.0 M
Team Needs: SG, PF, PG
Depending on what the Magic decide to do with Darko Milicic, they could have $7 million more in cap space. (That’s the size of his qualifying offer.) The team could go any number of directions, but Billy Donovan’s recent actions have put the franchise into a tailspin. Vince Carter fills a need, but he’s not the long-term answer at shooting guard. Grant Hill could also be re-signed.
Chicago Bulls, $10.2 M
Team Needs: PF, C
Andres Nocioni is a restricted free agent, but it appears the team is more interested in building around Luol Deng. Nocioni could garner a post scorer via a sign-and-trade (Zach Randolph?). There really isn’t anyone in free agency that fits the bill. P.J. Brown is also a free agent.
Atlanta Hawks, $8.6 M
Team Needs: PG, C
The Hawks are another team that could woo Mo Williams back to the South, and they’ve got just enough money to do it. It’s possible that they’ll grab a point guard in the draft, which means they’d use the remaining cap space on some inside help.
Note: For a complete list of payrolls, click here.
Below is a list of the top 10 free agents. I ranked each player based on his current value, potential and bang for the buck. An unrestricted free agent (U) is free to sign with any team he likes. If a player is a restricted free agent (R), his current team can match any offer he receives from another team provided that they extend a qualifying offer before free agency begins. (Mike Bibby can opt out of his contract, but his poor shooting this season makes it unlikely, so I didn’t include him in this list. He is due to make $28 million over the next two seasons.)
1. Gerald Wallace, SF (U)
Age: 24 (25 in July)
2006-07 stats: 18.1 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.6 apg, .502 FG%, .325 3P%
Probable asking price: $8-$11 M per year for six years
Wallace is a terrific defender and rebounder who does all those little things to help his team win. He doesn’t have a great outside shot, but given his athleticism and shooting percentage, he is a capable scorer. He has a reputation for being injury-prone, but he has played in 70+ games in two of the last three seasons. He hasn’t received a lot of press, which makes him a bit undervalued in this summer’s market. For the Bucks, he’d be a very nice complement to Michael Redd on the perimeter, but there are a number of teams who could use his services.
2. Rashard Lewis, F (U)
Age: 27 (28 in August)
2006-07 stats: 22.4 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 2.4 apg, .461 FG%, .390 3P%
Probable asking price: $12-$15 M per year for six years
Although there is some question as to whether Lewis’ agent filed the paperwork at the right time (possibly squandering his chance to opt out), Lewis is one of the biggest free agent prizes of the summer. The guy is a statistical stud, but he’s always been a good player on a mediocre team (the Sonics are 284-290 since he became a full time starter in the 2000-01 season). Where he’ll land is anyone’s guess, but it seems like Marc Iavaroni would love to have his smooth shooting as he tries to implement the Suns’ up-tempo offense in Memphis.
3. Mo Williams, PG (U)
Age: 24 (25 in December)
2006-07 stats: 17.3 ppg, 6.1 apg, 4.8 rpg, .446 FG%, .346 3P%
Probable asking price: $7-$9 M per year for six years
The Bucks traded T.J. Ford away (for Charlie Villanueva) partly because they felt that the former second-round pick could handle the load. They were right. He needs to put forth a better defensive effort night in and night out, but Williams has the makings of a very good scoring point guard – sort of a poor man’s Gilbert Arenas. Unless a team (Hawks, Grizzlies) makes him a huge offer, the Bucks would be wise to re-sign him. He’s just 24 and has a bright future ahead.
4. Chauncey Billups, PG (U)
Age: 30 (31 in September)
2006-07 stats: 17.0 ppg, 7.2 apg, 3.4 rpg, .427 FG%, .345 3P%
Probable asking price: $13-$16 M per year over 4-7 years
People love to say that Billups’ game shouldn’t diminish as he gets into his 30s, but he didn’t help his case with his mediocre play in the playoffs. His numbers took a small hit this season, especially his 3P%, which dropped from .433 to .345. The Pistons seem committed to re-signing him, but it depends on what kind of money he asks for. The Bucks and Grizzlies have expressed an interest, but they’d be wise not to overspend on a 31-year-old guard who looks like he might be on the downswing.
5. Vince Carter, SG (U)
Age: 30
2006-07 stats: 25.2 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 4.8 apg, .454 FG%, .357 3P%
Probable asking price: $14-$16 M per year for 4-7 years
Carter has a one-year option to stay with the Nets for a salary of $16.4 million, but all signs point to him opting out, possibly to re-up with New Jersey for a rumored four-year, $60 million deal. Though he puts up good numbers, I’ve never been a big fan of his game and I don’t think he’s the answer at shooting guard for an up-and-coming team. That said, Orlando, Memphis and Charlotte each have a hole at the position and lots of money to spend. Since his game is based on speed and athleticism, he probably has two or three good years left, so whoever signs him would be wise to limit the length of the contract to four years.
6. Andres Nocioni, SF (R)
Age: 27 (28 in November)
2006-07 stats: 14.1 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.1 apg, .467 FG%, .383 3P%
Probable asking price: $7-$8 M per year for six years
Nocioni is a starter-caliber player, but he’s been playing behind Luol Deng in Chicago. He’s a hard-nosed defender, a good shooter and a solid rebounder, someone who would be a good third or fourth option on a playoff team. There are a number of small forwards on the market this summer, so I expect his salary to be a bit depressed. Depending on how the signings go, it is conceivable (though unlikely) that a team could get him at the mid-level, which would be a very good value for the talented role player.
7. Morris Peterson, SF (U)
Age: 29 (30 in August)
2006-07 stats: 8.9 ppg, 3.4 rpg, .429 FG%, .359 3P%
Probable asking price: $5-$6 M per year for 3-4 years
After a terrific 2005-06 season (where he averaged 16.8 points and 4.7 boards), Peterson lost his starting job in Toronto and saw his minutes get cut in half. This couldn’t have happened at a worse time – he probably lost $6-$8 million on his next contract. Even though there’s a definite drop off between Nocioni and Peterson, the guy can still play and he should be able to step into a starting or 6th man role at the mid-level.
8. Darko Milicic, FC (R)
Age: 22
2006-07 stats: 8.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.8 bpg, .454 FG%
Probable asking price: $8-$10 M for six years
After all he’s been through in the league, it’s hard to believe that Darko is just 22 years old. He played just 24 minutes a game for the Magic this season, taking quite a bit of criticism for his spotty effort. As a starter, he averaged 10 points, seven boards and two blocks, so there is potential there. Considering his age and size (7’0”), someone is going to offer him a long-term deal. If he ratchets up the intensity on a daily basis, he could still be a star in this league, but if he couldn’t do it during his contract year, when will he?
9. Charlie Bell, G (R)
Age: 28
2006-07 stats: 13.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 3.0 apg, .437 FG%, .352 3P%
Probable asking price: $3-$5 M for 4-5 years
As the Bucks struggled through a season of injury, Charlie Bell emerged as a dependable three-position player. He has a nice jumper, can handle the ball and is a good defender. He’s not going to set the world on fire, but if he played with a wing player who handles the ball a lot – someone like Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Tracy McGrady or Dwyane Wade – he’d be a very effective point guard.
10. Anderson Varejao, FC (R)
Age: 24 (25 in September)
2006-07 stats: 6.8 ppg, 6.7 rpg, .476 FG%
Probable asking price: $6-$8 M for six years
I wonder just how much Varejao cost himself with that ill-advised spin move he tried on Tim Duncan in Game 3 of the Finals. Still, Varejao hustles, plays defense and hits the glass. He’s pretty athletic and can get up and down the court. Since he’s 6’10”, he’s valuable, so some team will make him a nice offer and the Cavs will have to decide if they want to match. Recent reports suggest the team will not overspend to keep the energetic big man.
Just missing the cut: Matt Barnes (U), Sasha Pavlovic (R), Luke Walton (U), Mickael Pietrus (R), Mikki Moore (U), DeShawn Stevenson (U), Chris Webber (U), Ruben Patterson (U), Jerry Stackhouse (U), Matt Carrol (U)l, Jason Kapono (U), Grant Hill (U)
Other unrestricted free agents: Antonio McDyess, Bonzi Wells, Desmond Mason, Earl Boykins, Chucky Atkins, Michael Finley, Ime Udoka, Jamaal Magloire, Kurt Thomas, James Posey, Melvin Ely, P.J. Brown, Joe Smith, Eddie Jones, Jason Hart, Jalen Rose, Steve Blake, Devin Brown, Keyon Dooling, Jannero Pargo, Gary Payton, Smush Parker, Shammond Williams, Austin Croshere, Primoz Brezec
Other restricted free agents: Fabricio Oberto, Chuck Hayes, Travis Outlaw, Walter Herrmann, Ersan Ilyasova
Send questions and comments to jpaulsen@bullz-eye.com.