A Buckeye October, Part I

A Buckeye October, Part I

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Could this finally be the year of the I-71 World Series? Cincinnati vs. Cleveland in the October Classic? Ken Griffey Jr. vs. Bartolo Colon for all the marbles. Jim Thome facing off against Scott Williamson. Skyline Chili takes on Crooked River Beer. 

Considering neither team even made the playoffs last year, an All-Ohio World Series may seem like a bit of a stretch, but these two rosters definitely have the talent to make a legitimate postseason run. But as any baseball fan knows, talent doesn't necessarily translate into triumph and if the Reds and Indians run into the same problems that hindered them in 2000, it'll be another lethargic fall in Ohio.

This week, I'll take a look at an improved Cincinnati team and its chances of reaching the World Series, and next week I'll head North for a look at the Tribe.

Every Reds fan first wants to know if Ken Griffey Jr. is going to be a consistent power bat in the middle of the lineup this year. The superstar centerfielder came home to Cincinnati last offseason in a soap-opera trade fit for the tabloids and became an instant fan favorite. His coaches loved him, the media adored him and his teammates respected him. After a 1999 season that saw a no-name Reds team somehow win 96 games, everyone figured adding a perennial gold-glove centerfielder who averages more than 40 homers and 120 RBI a season would surely catapult the Reds into the World Series. 

Well, everyone figured wrong.

The Reds staggered through the first half of the season with a 43-44 record. Junior's power numbers were there (28 home runs and 72 RBI), but he was hitting a mere .238 when the All-Star break hit, not exactly the kind of homecoming the 'Nati faithful were expecting. For all the fans who cheered the Griffey trade in the offseason, there were just as many who blamed Junior for the Reds' meager first-half showing only months later. In fact, it was just recently reported that he and his entire family were receiving threats all season, something that would certainly affect anyone's professional life.

But the irony here is it wasn't all Junior. In fact, if you throw out his horrible average, Griffey actually had a great first half - double those numbers for a full season... I'm sure almost anyone would be happy with a 56-homer, 144-RBI season. No, the Reds' sub-.500 first half was more a testament to their poor pitching (4.81 ERA before the break) and even worse team hitting than it was to Griffey's sub-par performance.

Take these numbers into consideration:

Player A: .256, 5 home runs, 23 RBI, .338 OBP in 66 games
Player B: .372, 15 home runs, 62 RBI, .431 OBP in 67 games

Obviously, Player B's stat sheet is much more impressive than Player A's, but which would you rather have on your home team's roster? ... Go ahead and think about it for a while... I'll be waiting... .

Actually, it's a trick question -- the above numbers represent first baseman Sean Casey's first half of the 2000 season (Player A) and his second half (Player B). The difference is staggering. Don't expect too many more first-halves like this one from Casey, a guy who mashed out 197 hits in 151 games in 1999 and 151 hits in just 133 games a year ago.

But what's the significance? Remember, the Reds went 42-33 in the second half of 2000. I'm not suggesting that Casey's resurgence was the main reason for the revival, but it didn't hurt. And it apparently didn't hurt Griffey either, who was "protected" in the lineup by Casey's .256 average and Dante Bichette's inconsistent bat throughout most of the Spring. But once Casey found his stroke and Bichette left via trade, Junior's bat coincidently heated up -- he hit .317 with 12 homers in 58 games before an injury prematurely ended his season.

Bichette's in Boston this year and Casey has his focus on consistency, but perhaps the second-most important hitter in this lineup is OF/1B Dmitri Young, who last year provided the steadiest bat on the Reds' roster, hitting .303 with 18 homers and 88 RBI in 548 at bats. But even more impressive than his overall numbers was Young's reliability at the plate the entire season: 9 home runs, 42 RBI and a .278 average before the break; 9 home runs, 46 RBI and a .333 average after the break. If Young continues his stable development (he's only 27), new manager Bob Boone won't hesitate batting him anywhere from the three hole to fifth or sixth, although he should find most of his at-bats in the cleanup spot, surrounded by Griffey and Casey.

Then there's the constant Alex Ochoa/Michael Tucker debate. Both Ochoa (.316, 13 homers and 58 RBI in 244 at bats) and Tucker (.267, 15 homers, 36 RBI in 270) have proven to be capable hitters on a limited basis, but with Bichette gone it looks as though right field is wide open. I'd expect Tucker to continue coming off the bench as he's more prone to long slumps than the younger, more athletic Ochoa. Give him 500 at bats behind the Griffey-Young-Casey trio, and you've possibly got a .300 average with 36 homers and 119 RBI, mathematically speaking, of course. With that kind of potential production, Boone will probably -- and wisely -- hand left field to Ochoa.

But perhaps the most promising sign for Cincinnati at the end of last season was some inspired play on the mound. Staff ace Pete Harnisch ended the year with an 8-6 record and a 4.74 ERA, but he was dominating after the break, posting a 7-1 record and a 3.59 ERA in 14 second-half starts. And Harnisch wasn't alone in the middle of the diamond. Elmer Dessens (10-5, 4.18 ERA), Scott Williamson (3-2, 2.90 ERA in nine starts) and rookie Rob Bell (3-2, 4.68 ERA) all pitched well after the break, as did veteran Osvaldo Fernandez, who notched a 1.59 ERA in four second-half starts. Plus, with rubber-armers Danny Graves and Scott Sullivan at the back end of the bullpen, the Reds never hesitate when handing a lead over to their relievers. In fact, Graves was the only pitcher in baseball to notch double-digit wins (10) and saves (30) last season.

The bottom line is: It's only February and it's still too early to rate a team's World Series chances, but with Griffey settling in with his new team this year, and Sean Casey and Pete Harnisch possibly stringing two strong halves together, the Reds surely have a shot in the National League, and certainly in the NL Central. You can't underestimate the importance of having a frontline closer (Graves), a top-notch starter (Harnisch) and three gold glove-caliber fielders stabilizing the middle of your defense (Griffey, SS Barry Larkin and 2B Pokey Reese). It won't be a cakewalk, but if Boone comes through in his first year in Cincinnati, he could have his team primed for an I-71 World Series come October.


In the Bullz-Eye

NASCAR. Following Dale Earnhardt's tragic death at the Daytona 500, NASCAR needs to take a long look at its safety issues. Certain influential drivers are still against many of the safety precautions that are being kicked around right now, even after Earnhardt's death. But the sport as a whole can't worry about irritating its drivers. Instead, it has to worry about the safety of its drivers and the safety of the millions of fans who come out to these events every year.