Betting NFL games is extremely difficult. Betting week one games in the NFL seems impossible.
Parity rules these days in the NFL, so week to week predictions can be very tough. Through in Las Vegas and the betting lines, and most games seem like a coin flip.
With week one, you have the added challenge of incomplete imformation. Unlike mid-season games, where bettors can analyze recent game tape and trends, Week 1 relies heavily on preseason projections, historical data, and incomplete information, leading to increased variance and risk.
Let’s take the Jets and Steelers game as an example. The Steelers are a road favorite at -2.5. Here we have two teams breaking in new quarterbacks who both have huge question marks about their 2025 prospects. The Steelers brought in Aaron Rodgers, which seems like a very un-Steelers type move. It reeks of desperation. Can he be effective as a 41-year-old QB? Does he have the work ethic needed? Will he tone down his flaky behavior? How will he mesh with Pittsburgh’s prehostoric offense? On the other side of the ball, you have a Jets team that will commit to the running game under new head coach Aaron Glenn. They brought in Justin Fields, who has failed to live up to the hype coming out of college from Ohio State. Feilds seems to have trouble seeing the field and making the quick decisions that are critical to effective QB play in the NFL. But can he thrive with the Jets who will run the ball and probably simplify his decision-making? There are so many unknowns here, so you have to project out so many factors to make a pick here. From my perspective, it’s easy to go with the home underdog. When in doubt, just play the percentages and go with advantages like home field and the extra points.
That may be the best theme to go with here. Pick toss-up games where you have a home underdog.
Another interesting game has the Bengals going to Cleveland to face the Browns. The Bengals are favored by 5.5 points, as many analysts and fans are enamored with their talent on offense. Meanwhile, the Browns probably have the worst brand in the NFL at the moment following their terrible 2024 season and the lingering effects of their DeShaun Watson fiasco. Yet you should never bet based on vibes and brand. Dig deeper and you’ll have to consider the issues the Bengals will have on defense, while the Browns will likely be a completely different team if old man Joe Flacco can stabilize the quarterback play in Cleveland. The Browns have a real defense, and with Kevin Stefanski calling plays again, they should be able to run the ball. So there’s a real argument that you should consider the home underdog again and take the 5.5 points.
On another note, you have a team like the Los Angeles Rams, where we have no idea whether Matthew Stafford is ready for the season. Will he be healthy? If so, you have to be very tempted to take the Rams versus the Houston Texans at home. The Rams are favored by 3.5 points, and Houston has real problems with winning teams. They get to feast on a terrible division, and they have real questions about their running game. So here your bet is really conditioned on whether Stafford will be back to his old self. I’ll take that chance, but again, you have to know going in what variables can impact the game.
Enjoy the games!
