Mr. Optimism and Mr. Pessimism break down the playoffs
01/04/2008
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Nothing beats the feeling a fan gets when his or her team reaches the playoffs. This time of year usually brings out overwhelming optimism and whatever warts your team might have shown in the regular season, they seem to disappear heading into the postseason. Of course, the playoffs also bring out another side of fans – the pessimistic side that is filled with uncontrollable doubt. Every opponent seems like Goliath and fans start thinking to themselves, “How can my flawed team ever beat this powerhouse?” Ah, the emotional roller coaster of the postseason.
I’ve ranked every playoff team below, 1-12, and included commentary for each team from two people: Mr. Optimism and Mr. Pessimism. Obviously, Mr. Optimism isn’t worried about looking at things objectively and only sees the good residing in his favorite team. Mr. Pessimism, however, is either that inner doubt fans have about their favorite team, or that annoying guy whose team was eliminated from the playoffs nine weeks ago and now his sole mission is to bring your team down. Mr. Pessimism is not realistic either, but he’s not going to allow Mr. Optimism to ignore a team’s flaws. In the end, each team is probably somewhere in the middle of what Mr. Optimism and Mr. Pessimism say, but you be the judge on whose argument is more compelling.
1. New England Patriots
Mr. Optimism: This team is on a mission. They’re a juggernaut – a team sent from another planet to destroy everything in its path. Their offensive line guards Tom Brady like Fort Knox and what secondary is going to stop Randy Moss? Even if opponents double and triple-team Moss, Wes Welker is open in the flats, over the middle and down the seams. Throw in an unrelenting defense and a genius coach and it’s clear as day that the Patriots are going to run the table and finish as the greatest team in NFL history.
Mr. Pessimism: Genius coach? He’s a cheater and everyone knows it. The Giants, Ravens and Eagles have given other teams a blueprint on how to stop this so-called “juggernaut.” The key is being physical like the Ravens were, as well as getting pressure on Brady because he’ll make mistakes once he meets the turf a couple of times. Plus, aside from two games, Laurence Maroney hasn’t done squat and the Giants showed that New England can be beaten through the air.
2. Indianapolis Colts
Mr. Optimism: The Colts have battled injuries all season and still managed to win 13 games. The stars should be healthy and ready to go, which only means trouble for any opponent. Peyton Manning remains the best game manager in all of football and with Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Joseph Addai and Dallas Clark healthy and rested, he has his full arsenal of weapons. On the other side of the ball, the run defense is no longer a problem with a healthy Bob Sanders in the fold, and even without Dwight Freeney, Indy finished seventh in the NFL in sacks.
Mr. Pessimism: Yeah, Harrison will probably be ready to play, which means Indy’s offense will be back to full strength. But expecting Harrison and Manning to be on the same page immediately is a stretch. If the timing between the two of them is off, Manning might force passes into coverage and turn the ball over. Plus, can this team stay healthy throughout the entire postseason? It’s doubtful considering Harrison, Addai and Clark have all missed time this year. Their run defense is still a concern as well, so playing a great running team like the Jaguars could spell trouble.
3. Dallas Cowboys
Mr. Optimism: This offense is unstoppable. Tony Romo is creative and can keep plays alive with his scrambling, the running game boasts a two-headed monster in Marion Barber and Julius Jones, and the passing game features some of the game’s best weapons in Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton and Jason Witten. Defensively, it’s hard to run on the ‘Boys and the front seven is highly aggressive when playing with a sizeable lead. This team has really played hard for Wade Phillips, too.
Mr. Pessimism: Remember the last time Romo played in a playoff game? He choked. And just because he had a great regular season doesn’t mean he’ll be great in the playoffs when things really matter. Will T.O. be 100% healthy? He better be. Look no further than the second half of the Panthers game and before the starters came out against the Redskins. The Cowboys are a different team offensively without Owens. If T.O. is out, defenses can load up to stop the run, blanket Jason Witten in coverage and force Romo into bad decisions. The defense is good, but not good enough to overcome multiple turnovers in the playoffs. And Cowboys fans better hope Jessica Simpson stays home this January.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
Mr. Optimism: Three things will carry the Jaguars through the postseason: a quarterback who doesn’t make mistakes, a solid defense, and one of the best running games in football. This team is so good on the ground that defenses usually have to commit eight men in the box to stop Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, which opens up passing lanes for David Garrard. A great running game also allows the Jags to control the clock and rely on their stingy defense.
Mr. Pessimism: Except for the running game, nothing scares me about this team. Most of the playoff teams have a secondary that can play one-on-one with receivers Reggie Williams, Dennis Northcutt and Ernest Wilford. So that means committing more defenders to the run shouldn’t be a problem, and keeping an eye on Jones-Drew out of the backfield is a must. Other than that, playing up to Jacksonville’s physical brand of football is the key to defeating them.
5. Green Bay Packers
Mr. Optimism: Brett Favre, Brett Favre and Brett Favre. He’s playing some of the best football of his career and other than New England, Green Bay statistically has the best offense in the league. Ryan Grant provides a spark in the running game and opens up passing lanes for Favre and his receiving weapons, Donald Driver and Greg Jennings. Defensively, Aaron Kampman has been an absolute beast in getting to the quarterback and the secondary has been solid all season.
Mr. Pessimism: This team is overachieving. They’re playing above their heads and so is Favre. If the running game is non-existent (and let’s remember that Grant is a rookie), the passing lanes will start to disappear in a hurry. What happens if the Packers have to head down to Dallas again? The Cowboy offense made quick work of Green Bay’s secondary and Tony Romo threw four touchdown passes. It’s going to be tough to beat the Pack in Green Bay, but Dallas seems to be the ultimate challenge – a challenge that the Packers weren’t up for in the previous meeting.
6. San Diego Chargers
Mr. Optimism: Let’s do a checklist. Good defense? Check. Running game? Check. Best player in all of football? Check. Marty Schottenheimer absent from game preparation? Check. Sure, the Chargers didn’t play up to their potential earlier in the year, but they’ve won six in a row and have steamrolled teams lately. Plus with LaDainian Tomlinson in the backfield and rising defensive stars Shawne Merriman and Antonio Cromartie, the sky’s the limit.
Mr. Pessimism: Sure, there’s no Schottenheimer to blow things this year, but there is Norv Turner. How well has he done as a head coach in the postseason? Oh that’s right – he’s never won a playoff game. Philip Rivers isn’t going to scare any defense, either. LT and Antonio Gates are great, but Rivers isn’t going to light up a secondary with his arm and decision-making. This team might get past the Titans and their weak offense, but they don’t stand a chance against the Patriots or Colts.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
Mr. Optimism: Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t thrown an interception since tossing two in a Week 13 win against Cincinnati. Before resting in the finale against Baltimore, Big Ben threw a total of six touchdown passes in games against the Jaguars and Rams. If anyone can carry this team without Willie Parker, it’s Roethlisberger. Plus, playing a playoff game in Pittsburgh is a different animal. The defense will be well rested and will dominate like they did earlier in the season.
Mr. Pessimism: Besides Cleveland and Seattle, who has this team beaten? With losses at Arizona, Denver, New England and New York, the Steelers have shown that they can’t beat anyone outside of Pittsburgh and Ohio. And oh, by the way, they face the Jaguars in the opening round, the same team that beat them in Pittsburgh just three weeks ago. Najah Davenport just isn’t going to get it done and the defense hasn’t played well in weeks.
8. Seattle Seahawks
Mr. Optimism: Seattle is one of the toughest environments to play in during the regular season, let alone the postseason. Matt Hasselbeck is also playing great football and has thrown a touchdown pass in 15 out of 16 games this season. Bobby Engram has emerged as a go-to guy and Nate Burleson has been more than reliable. The defense has been outstanding as well, limiting teams to fewer than 13 points in six games this season. Patrick Kerney has played like a mad man and the rest of the defense thrives off turnovers.
Mr. Pessimism: Shaun Alexander has not played well since the first two weeks of the season and not having a dominate running game will eventually catch up with Seattle’s offense. This team can’t only rely on the pass, especially if they have to play in bad weather. The defense thrives on turnovers, yes, but that could also be viewed as a problem. Always relying on turnovers could spell trouble, and even more troubling is that this team has lost its focus on more than one occasion this year. The loss to Carolina in Week 15 is evidence of that.
9. New York Giants
Mr. Optimism: Brandon Jacobs has been outstanding over the past four weeks, including a 143-yard, two-touchdown performance against Buffalo in Week 15. Say what you want about Eli Manning but he proved in the finale against New England (251 yards, 4 TDs) that he can play under pressure. People tend to forget how good the Giants’ defense has played this year, too. They’ve held opponents to an average of 97.7 yards on the ground and while they’ve been known to give up the big play at times, the secondary has held its own.
Mr. Pessimism: Give him enough time and Manning will fold under pressure. Tom Coughlin has a tendency to be out-coached in big games as well. Injuries have also been a major problem for this team, with Jacobs, Plaxico Burress and, most recently, Jeremy Shockey battling various aliments throughout the course of the year. Does a team led by Manning and Coughlin have the mental makeup to make a run at a Super Bowl?
10. Washington Redskins
Mr. Optimism: This is by far the hottest team in the league and one that’s playing on a lot of emotion. Clinton Portis has carried the ‘Skins and the job quarterback Todd Collins has done filling in for injured starter Jason Campbell has been outstanding for a career backup. Washington also boasts one of the stingiest run defenses in the league and has one of football’s best young safeties in rookie LaRon Landry. This team is playing with house money and certainly will continue to play like they have nothing to lose.
Mr. Pessimism: Raw emotion will only take a team so far. Yes, the Redskins are hot and have played outstanding football over the past four weeks, but they also lost four in a row before that stretch. Seriously, how far can this team get with Todd Collins as the starting quarterback? He’s had four good games, but this is the postseason and Washington has to play on the road throughout. It’s just too much to overcome.
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mr. Optimism: Just like their Super Bowl year in 2002, the Bucs rely on defense and not turning the ball over. Jeff Garcia isn’t flashy but he doesn’t make big mistakes that wind up costing Tampa games. Earnest Graham has also been a breath of fresh air with starter Cadillac Williams suffering a season-ending knee injury, and he gives the Bucs much-needed balance offensively. Defensively, Monte Kiffin has put together some outstanding game plans. His linebackers are perfect for the Cover 2 and rookie safety Tanard Jackson as been a pleasant surprise.
Mr. Pessimism: Talk about Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde – the Bucs are a confusing bunch. After playing one of their best games of the season in a 37-3 thrashing of the Falcons, Tampa played uninspired in a loss to the 49ers the very next week. Garcia has played well at times, but his talents are limited and will probably only take the Bucs so far. The defense is very good, but this is by far the most inconsistent team in the playoffs and they’ve probably overachieved.
12. Tennessee Titans
Mr. Optimism: The Chargers are a perfect team for the Titans to face in the opening round. Don’t forget, Tennessee had San Diego on the ropes for three and a half quarters before their offense sputtered and their defense was too tired to stop LaDainian Tomlinson. The Titans front seven is physical and with Albert Haynesworth healthy, teams are going to have a tough time running the ball. Offensively, Vince Young is a playmaker and LenDale White has proven multiple times this season that he can be a reliable, every-down back.
Mr. Pessimism: This team will go nowhere with Young under center – especially if opposing defenses can stop White and make Young beat them with his arm. The defense is very good but if the offense can’t sustain drives, the Chargers proved in Week 14 that teams can wear down the Titans’ front seven. The bottom line is that Young is too unreliable to make any kind of run and he’ll be playing on a bum quadriceps. This team won’t make it out of San Diego.
Questions or comments? Send them to astalter@bullz-eye.com.