The recalibrated NBA playoff picture
02/26/2008
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What do Kevin Garnett, Jason Kidd, Wally Szczerbiak, Ben Wallace, Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, Shawn Marion, Shaquille O’Neal and Pau Gasol have in common?
They’re all players with at least one All-Star appearance to their credit who have changed teams in the last year. Throw in All-Star near misses Mike Bibby, Larry Hughes and Jason Richardson, as well as rising stars Al Jefferson and Devin Harris, and it’s obvious that there has been a lot of turnover in the NBA over the last 365 days.
Teams are more willing than ever to make a move in an attempt to win a title now and deal with the consequences later. Take the Mavericks, who sent the up-and-coming Harris to New Jersey along with two first-round draft picks for the rights to the soon-to-be 35 year old Kidd. Kidd likely gives the Mavs a better shot to win a title this year (and maybe next), but what about the eight years after that? Harris will probably be tearing it up in New Jersey while the Mavs will be searching for a point guard to complement Josh Howard.
Dallas owner Mark Cuban figures that his team’s title window is closing as Dirk Nowitzki approaches the age of 30. He’d rather have another title shot in the next two years than have a solid string of 55-plus win seasons for the next decade. Who can blame him? In the NBA, it’s all about the ring.
The Miami Heat, the team that beat the Mavs in the 2006 NBA Finals, are a great example of how a savvy team can reload. They plucked Marion, a four-time All-Star, from the Suns in exchange for Shaquille O’Neal. Who got the better end of the deal is debatable as a motivated O’Neal can still tip the tables in the playoffs. But the Heat knew they weren’t going to get anything more out of him, so they moved him for an unhappy star who should turn out to be a terrific complement for Dwyane Wade.
With all of these trades in mind, let’s take a look at the top teams in the NBA and handicap their title chances. The World Sports Exchange hosts a real-time long-term market where bettors can buy and sell their shares in a team winning the title. The odds I list for each team come from there. They’ll give us an idea of which team bettors think will triumph this summer.
There are ten teams that have a legit shot at making the Finals. For each team, I’ll discuss whatever trades were made (if any) and what it will take for the franchise to break through.
Los Angeles Lakers (6-1)
The big move… was the grand theft of Pau Gasol from the we’re-in-fire-sale-mode-but-won’t-admit-it Memphis Grizzlies. In his first nine games with the Lakers, Gasol averaged 22.0 points and 7.1 rebounds while shooting a blistering 64.4% from the field.
They can break through if… Andrew Bynum comes back healthy and the new-look frontline can gel. I don’t know how Lamar Odom fits in alongside Bynum and Gasol in the frontcourt, but in nine games with Gasol, Odom is averaging 15.2 points, 12.4 rebounds and 4.6 assists, so it’s clear that he can play with Pau. With one of the best coaches in the league, it looks like the smart money is on the Lakers right now.
It all falls apart if… Bynum doesn’t come back on schedule (or is out of shape). The Lakers are playing great without him, but teams will start to adjust to Gasol in the triangle offense and things will get tougher. If Bynum can come back strong, he will keep defenses on their heels.
Boston Celtics (4-1)
The big move… came last summer when the team acquired Kevin Garnett. Since then, they’ve been leaning on KG, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce and have been playing some terrific defense.
They can break through if… they can stay healthy and continue to defend. The Celtics aren’t deep enough to overcome an injury to one of their stars, so they have to cross their collective fingers and hope no one gets hurt.
It all falls apart if… teams start to expose the Celtics defensively and they lose home court advantage. Ray Allen and Paul Pierce were never known for their defense, so one wonders if they’re playing a little above their heads on that end of the court. It looked for a while that the C’s were going to run away with the East, but the Pistons are creeping up and the new-look Cavs would be a dangerous matchup in the playoffs.
Phoenix Suns (5-1)
The big move… was the Suns’ response to the Lakers’ thievery of Gasol; they traded the once-disgruntled Marion for Shaq. I’m skeptical of this move given Shaq’s play the last couple of years, but in the few games he’s played for the Suns, he has shown renewed vigor. (And a vigorous Shaq is a very dangerous thing.)
They can break through if… Shaq can (1) stay healthy, (2) stay motivated, (3) defend the rim, and (4) fit in. The Suns are going to miss Marion’s energy, speed and perimeter defense, so Raja Bell and Grant Hill have to step it up.
It all falls apart if… Shaq can’t figure out a way to contribute without the ball. The Suns need help defensively and on the boards, but if O’Neal starts complaining about a lack of touches, the wheels are going to come off quickly.
San Antonio Spurs (5-1)
The big move… wasn’t big at all. They traded Brent Barry for Kurt Thomas. I would have been more impressed had they landed Mike Miller, but Grizzlies’ GM Chris Wallace decided after the Gasol trade that he actually wanted something of value in return for his stars. Thomas gives the Spurs a big body who can defend the opposition’s best post player, keeping Tim Duncan fresh on the other end of the court.
They can break through if… Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are all healthy come playoff time. If that’s the case, no one will want to play the battle-tested Spurs in the postseason.
It all falls apart if… one of those guys isn’t healthy. The Spurs’ success is dependant on their chemistry and if one of their stars is out or hobbled, it throws everything off. The Spurs have won three titles in the last five years, but they’ve never repeated, so history suggests that they’ll lose their last game this postseason.
Dallas Mavericks (8-1)
The big move… sent Devin Harris, DaSagana Diop, two first-round picks and some throw-ins to the Nets for Jason Kidd.
They can break through if… Kidd gels with the team and the rest of the Mavs respond. Kidd will provide some much-needed toughness and leadership, and just might be able to put the Mavs over the top.
It all falls apart if… the trade doesn’t take. Kidd is a poor shooter, so he needs to focus on creating for his teammates first. Given the Mavs’ defeat in the Finals two years ago and their poor performance against the Warriors in the first round last season, it just feels like the window has already closed on the Mavs’ title hopes.
Cleveland Cavaliers (13-1)
The big move… brought Wallace, Szczerbiak and Delonte West to town for Hughes, Drew Gooden and some throw-ins.
They can break through if… Ben Wallace just needed a change of scenery. His career has been on a downswing since he signed with Chicago, but he never got along with Scott Skiles so the Cavs are hoping a fresh start will prove that he can still defend and rebound like he used to. His poor shooting (especially from the charity stripe) can be a major handicap, so expect Anderson Varejao to see more time than Wallace in the fourth quarter. Regardless, given the long odds, I think the Cavs are the best bet to come out of the East.
It all falls apart if… everyone defers to LeBron all the time. The Cavs finally have the shooters that can complement the Cavs’ superstar, but they need to be ready to take that big shot. Remember Steve Kerr and John Paxson? They had ice water running in their veins when they played for the Bulls. The Cavs need a few guys like that.
Detroit Pistons (7-1)
The big move… was no move at all.
They can break through if… their chemistry, experience and toughness reveal themselves in the postseason. The Pistons are getting great play out of their bench, which has infused a little youthful energy into their game.
It all falls apart if… they start bickering. The team’s vaunted chemistry lost some of its luster over the last few years and it just didn’t seem like the team was working together for a common goal. They’re playing well right now and if they can keep it up, Detroit will be dangerous come playoff time.
Utah Jazz (19-1)
The big move… sent Gordan Giricek to Philly for Kyle Korver. Since the trade, Utah has been on fire.
They can break through if… they can play above their heads for an extended period of time. They have all the makings of a championship team – a playmaking point guard and a dominant big man – but it will be the supporting cast that decides how far the team will go in the postseason.
It all falls apart if… they can’t knock down the open jumper. With Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams drawing a ton of attention, Korver, Mehmet Okur, Ronnie Brewer and Andrei Kirilenko will get plenty of open shots. If that group doesn’t collectively catch fire, the Jazz aren’t going anywhere.
New Orleans Hornets (19-1)
The big move… was sending Bobby Jackson to Houston for Bonzi Wells and Mike James. The move gives the Hornets some extra depth and some extra punch off the bench.
They can break through if… Chris Paul continues to play out of his mind. He is becoming the most dynamic point guard in the game and as long as his teammates continue to hit open shots, the Hornets will be a tough out this spring.
It all falls apart if… Paul has a bad week. The Hornets are pretty balanced scoring-wise, but no team (other than the Cavs and maybe the Suns) depends on one player more than the Hornets do. He makes the New Orleans offense go, and if he hits a bad stretch, they’re finished.
Houston Rockets (19-1)
The big move…sent Bonzi Wells and Mike James to New Orleans for Bobby Jackson. The Rockets weren’t getting much out of James, and Jackson is a veteran who can easily adjust his game to fit in.
They can break through if… they can continue to play like they are. At press time, the Rockets have won 12 straight games, 16 of their last 17, and 21 of their last 24. After that terrific run, they’re still in fourth place in the brutal Southwest.
It all falls apart if… Tracy McGrady or Yao Ming misses significant time with an injury. Even with all those wins, the Rockets only have a 2.5-game lead on the #9 team in the West, so any slipup means that Houston could miss the playoffs altogether.
With all the wheeling and dealing leading up to the trade deadline, it will be interesting to watch the stretch run and see how everything shakes out. Some trades will take and others won’t, so for some teams, being able to develop chemistry quickly is more important than ever. The playoff race in the West will be especially brutal as just 5 ½ games currently separate the top nine teams. A very good team is going to miss the playoffs, so expect teams in the West to enter playoff mode much earlier this season.
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