East vs. West: Has the power shifted in the NBA?
08/08/2007
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This summer, several prominent players – Kevin Garnett, Rashard Lewis, Zach Randolph, Ray Allen and Jason Richardson – moved from the West to the East, prompting many to wonder if the balance of power in the NBA has shifted with them.
I don’t think anyone would argue with me if I say that the league’s three best teams are San Antonio, Phoenix and Dallas, all from the West. I think that if Utah were in the East, they’d also be the favorites to win the conference. So at the top of the conference, the West is still quite dominant.
To provide some historical perspective I put together the following graph, which shows the regular season winning percentage of all the Eastern Conference teams versus the Western Conference since the 1990-91 season.
The results are interesting. You’ll see from the graph that the East won around 57% of its interconference games in the 1996-98 seasons, but the balance of power quickly swung the other way. Over the last seven years, the East is just 1275-1789 (41.6%) versus the West, while Western Conference teams have won seven of the last nine NBA Finals. (That would be eight of nine if not for the refs deciding to send Dwyane Wade to the line every time he went to the hole against the Mavs in the 2006 Finals.) This relative dominance can be attributed to the mini-dynasties in Los Angeles and San Antonio and the rise of the Suns and the Mavs. In this case, we’re talking about the emergence of Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, Steve Nash, Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudemire.
One thing’s for sure: great players make great teams.
So how do things look going forward?
Below is a list of the league’s top 50 players in Efficiency Per Game by conference. EPG is a stat that includes points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, while also taking into account missed shots, free throws and turnovers. It’s not a perfect stat, but the resulting list is a veritable who’s who in the NBA.
EAST (24)
Kevin Garnett (right), Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Gilbert Arenas, Dwight Howard, Vince Carter, Zach Randolph, Jason Kidd, Emeka Okafor, Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, Paul Pierce, Jermaine O’Neal, Caron Butler, Michael Redd, Andre Iguodala, Gerald Wallace, Luol Deng, Josh Smith, Antawn Jamison, Joe Johnson, Chauncey Billups, David Lee
WEST (26)
Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki, Yao Ming, Carlos Boozer, Pau Gasol, Tim Duncan, Elton Brand, Steve Nash, Shawn Marion, Amare Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony, Marcus Camby, Baron Davis, Tracy McGrady, Allen Iverson, Chris Paul, Lamar Odom, Al Jefferson, Ron Artest, David West, Tyson Chandler, Deron Williams, Josh Howard, Mike Miller, Kevin Martin, Tony Parker
Interestingly, the East’s total, 24, is +3 after this summer’s trades and free agency acquisitions; the addition of Garnett, Allen, Randolph and Lewis minus the loss of Al Jefferson. But that’s just a snapshot of the current talent distribution. What about the next three to five years?
To answer that question, I removed each player that will be over 30 heading into this season (with a birthday before 11/1).
EAST (17)
Kevin Garnett, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Gilbert Arenas, Dwight Howard, Vince Carter, Zach Randolph, Jason Kidd, Emeka Okafor, Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, Paul Pierce, Jermaine O’Neal, Caron Butler, Michael Redd, Andre Iguodala, Gerald Wallace, Luol Deng, Josh Smith, Antawn Jamison, Joe Johnson, Chauncey Billups, David Lee
WEST (22)
Kobe Bryant (right), Dirk Nowitzki, Yao Ming, Carlos Boozer, Pau Gasol, Tim Duncan, Elton Brand, Steve Nash, Shawn Marion, Amare Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony, Marcus Camby, Baron Davis, Tracy McGrady, Allen Iverson, Chris Paul, Lamar Odom, Al Jefferson, Ron Artest, David West, Tyson Chandler, Deron Williams, Josh Howard, Mike Miller, Kevin Martin, Tony Parker
All things being equal (i.e. no interconference trades or free agency movement), in a few years, the talent gap looks like it will be wider, as the East will lose seven players to “old age,” while the West will lose just four. I replaced those players with the next nine under-30 players (based on 2006-07 EPG), plus a couple of rookies that should be pretty good.
EAST (23)
Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Gilbert Arenas, Dwight Howard, Zach Randolph, Emeka Okafor, Rashard Lewis, Jermaine O’Neal, Caron Butler, Michael Redd, Andre Iguodala, Gerald Wallace, Luol Deng, Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, David Lee, Mo Williams, Andrew Bogut, Kirk Hinrich, Rip Hamilton, Nenad Krstic, Samuel Dalembert
WEST (27)
Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki, Yao Ming, Carlos Boozer, Pau Gasol, Elton Brand, Shawn Marion, Amare Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony, Baron Davis, Tracy McGrady, Chris Paul, Lamar Odom, Al Jefferson, Ron Artest, David West, Tyson Chandler, Deron Williams, Josh Howard, Mike Miller, Kevin Martin, Tony Parker, Mehmet Okur, Andris Biendrins, Leandro Barbosa (right), Greg Oden, Kevin Durant
Obviously, players will develop at different speeds, and there will be surprise players to emerge as well as interconference trades and free agency signings, but all else being equal, it looks like the West is going to be the better conference for the next several years.
To counteract this talent gap, the league needs to move to a playoff format that would mix up the conferences so that the best teams would meet later in the playoffs. With the league’s four best teams in the West, the Finals are becoming an afterthought, and it’s really hurting the NBA as a whole.
Send questions and comments to jpaulsen@bullz-eye.com.