Who's the best at getting to the line?
04/18/2007
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Wade? LeBron? Kobe?
Announcers often say that a certain player is great at getting to the free throw line. But what does this really mean? Does the player get to the free throw a certain number of times per game? Or does he have a high ratio of free throws per minute or per shot attempt?
I thought it would be interesting to try to answer this question statistically. Dwyane Wade leads the league with 10.6 free throw attempts per game, followed by Kobe Bryant (9.9) and Gilbert Arenas (9.7). But it’s not fair to simply look at this number since it doesn’t take into account the number of minutes the player plays or how involved the player is in his team’s offense.
In order to take these factors into account, we’re to use free throw attempts per minute (FTAPM), which should make it possible to compare a guy who plays 25 minutes per game to a guy that plays 40 minutes per game. We’re also going to factor in the ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts (FTA/FGA) to see how often a player turns a shot attempt into a trip to the charity stripe. This will allow us to consider players that are not the first or second options on their respective teams.
For argument’s sake, let’s assume that these two statistics are equally important. The following equation should provide a list of the players who are the best in the league at getting to the line.
Free Throw Factor (FTF) = 0.5 * (free throw attempts per minute) + 0.5 * (free throw attempts / field goal attempts)
To eliminate the effect of low sample size, players averaging fewer than 20 minutes per game and 10 points per game were removed from the calculations.
Here is a list of the top five players (and their FTF) at each position:
Point Guard
Steve Francis (.382)
Chauncey Billups (.358)
Gilbert Arenas (.354)
Allen Iverson (.344)
Chucky Atkins (.301)
It’s not a shocker that Billups, Arenas and AI are on this list, but seeing Francis and Atkins is surprising. Both players are apparently very adept at turning their offensive opportunities into free throw attempts. Billups doesn’t shoot as many free throws per minute as Arenas or Iverson, but he’s the second-best (after Francis) at his position in FTA/FGA ratio.
Shooting Guard
Corey Maggette (.536)
Dwyane Wade (.418)
Andre Iguodala (.368)
Kevin Martin (.366)
Kobe Bryant (.339)
Maggette is actually the best in the league at getting to the line. He attacks the rim relentlessly and is so strong that it’s difficult to stop him from scoring without fouling him. The presence of D-Wade and Kobe isn’t surprising; both players are superstars and generally get the benefit of the doubt from the officials. Kobe is especially good at working the refs night in and night out. Iguodala and Martin are two of the league’s most improved players. Iguodala really benefited from the Iverson trade and is a star in the making, while Martin has developed into one of the league’s best scorers.
Small Forward
Paul Pierce (.352)
LeBron James (.325)
Grant Hill (.324)
Richard Jefferson (.318)
Gerald Wallace (.318)
Other than Pierce, every guy on this list is considered more of a slasher than a shooter. With all of his injury history, it’s surprising to see Hill here, but he’s still very good at drawing fouls. LeBron, Jefferson and Wallace are simply better athletically than most of the guys that try to defend them, making it almost impossible to keep them away from the basket. Pierce uses heady play to get his defender out of position, which makes it easier to draw the foul.
Power Forward
Dwight Howard (.495)
Chris Bosh (.384)
Hakim Warrick (.368)
Tim Duncan (.355)
Nene Hilario (.352)
Next to Maggette, Howard has the second-highest FTA/FGA ratio in the league. He’s so strong and aggressive when he catches the ball in the post that it’s extremely difficult to stop him without fouling. Duncan has the respect of the officials and is a wily veteran who knows how to get his defender out of position. It’s surprising to see Warrick and Hilario on this list, but both have proven to be very adept at getting to the line in their young careers.
Center
Eddy Curry (.442)
Shaquille O’Neal (.441)
ZaZa Pachulia (.395)
Amare Stoudemire (.388)
Yao Ming (.383)
Curry and Shaq aren’t the best free throw shooters (61.8% and 41.9%, respectively) but they get to the line a ton. Pachulia is energetic on the offensive boards and draws a lot of frustration fouls after gathering a teammate’s missed shot. Stoudemire attacks the rim relentlessly, and like Maggette, he’s so strong that it’s difficult to strip the ball from him without fouling. Simply stated, Yao is huge. A lot of defenders will foul him when he gets the ball down low instead of giving him an easy dunk. Unlike Shaq, he makes them pay at the free throw line (86.0%), which makes him hands down the best offensive center in the game.
Enough of the best – who’s the worst?
Rasual Butler (.076)
Jason Kapono (.082)
Willie Green (.094)
Luther Head (.097)
Raja Bell (.106)
What’s the common thread? Save for Green (18%), everyone on this list shoots at least 38% of his shots from long range. You aren’t going to draw a lot of fouls that way.
So there you have it – 25 of the league’s best (and five of the worst) at getting to the line. Next time your buddy wants to talk about how many free throws LeBron shoots, just tell him that Corey Maggette has more free throws per minute and a better FTA/FGA ratio. Maybe you’ll win a bar bet or two.
Questions or comments? Send them to jpaulsen@bullz-eye.com.