Buckle up and enjoy the ride, Part II
08/22/2001
Codding Home / Sports Channel / Bullz-Eye Home
Last week, I took a stroll through the American League, checking out the divisional and wild card races while taking a look at the remaining schedule for the AL's true contenders. I also gave a quick run-down of the National League playoff races, where the Cubs, Giants, Dodgers, Braves and Cardinals were all separated by only four games in the wild card standings. A week later, things somehow have gotten even tighter in the National League, where the Giants now sit atop the wild card race with the Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers and Phillies all within 3.5 games of the lead. Meanwhile, the Padres are nearly drowning in their 8.5-game deficit.
Unlike the American League, where the Mariners lead the West by 17 games and the Indians hold a 5.5-game lead over the Twins, the Houston Astros, who currently are three games ahead of both the Cubs and Cardinals, own the largest divisional lead in the NL. The Phillies trail the Braves by one game in the NL East and the Diamondbacks lead the Giants by 1.5 games and the Dodgers by 4.5 in the West.
Judging by those numbers, it's obviously going to be a photo finish in the NL, but a close inspection of the remaining schedules for these eight teams indicates we're in for a no-holds-barred battle that will even grab the attention of the most loyal WWF fans.
Atlanta and the Phillies face off seven times in the last few weeks of the season, with the Braves hosting Philadelphia for a three-game set starting September 11 before Atlanta heads to the Vet on September 17 for four more games. But the Braves can't afford to look ahead to those two match-ups just yet. First, they need to worry about the series against San Diego from August 21-23. Then come four games against the Dodgers starting August 24, three versus the Cubs from the 31st to September 2, and another three in Chicago from the 7th to the 9th. Only then can the Braves even begin to think about those seven games against Philadelphia. But the Phillies, meanwhile, have a simpler road to maneuver, with only three games against the Astros starting August 21, and four against the Diamondbacks from the 24th to the 27th before taking on the Braves. So while Atlanta has to face playoff-caliber teams in 19 of their final 38 games, the Phillies only have 13 of their remaining 38 games against .500 teams or better.
Despite their three-game lead in the NL Central, things don't look too promising for the Astros. After Houston finishes off a stretch of 16-straight games against the Pirates, Reds and Brewers on September 9, manager Larry Dierker and his team wrap up the season with three games against the Giants, three more in St. Louis, three in San Francisco, three at home against the Cubs and another three in Houston against the Cards before wrapping up their season in Chicago for a four-game series from September 27-30. That's 19 games in 20 days against three teams that are a combined 43 games above .500. The Cardinals, three games behind Houston in the Central and two behind the Giants in the wild card, don't have it much easier, squaring off against the Cubs for three games starting August 24, then three against the Padres on the 28th, three in L.A. from August 31-September 2, and three more in San Diego from September 3-5. Then the Dodgers come to St. Louis for three games on September 7, followed by a three-game series against the Astros from September 14-16 and three more in Houston from the 24th-26th. Really, the only break the Cardinals see in the final six weeks of the season is 14 games against the Brewers and Pirates. As for the Cubs, who also sit two games behind the Giants in the wild card standings, they've only got to worry about those three games against St. Louis from September 24-26, then six games with the Braves early next month and seven against Houston in late September. Of the three contenders in the Central, Chicago has the lightest schedule, but with the Cards, Astros and Cubs going head-to-head 16 times before the regular season winds down, we'll see some bloodshed by the time this thing's done.
Then there's the NL West, where the Diamondbacks, Giants and Dodgers square off 22 more times this year. Arizona has four against the Phillies from August 24-27, followed by three at home against the Giants and four in three days in San Diego. Then it's off to San Fran for three games starting September 4, back at home against the Padres from September 7-9, then four in L.A starting on the 20th and three more against the Dodgers in Arizona to wrap up the season from the 28th-30th, making 24 remaining games for the D-backs against playoff contenders. The Giants also have 24 more games against .500 or better teams, with three in Arizona starting August 28, three more at home against the D-backs on September 4-6, and three at Enron Field against the Astros starting September 11. Then the Dodgers and Astros come into town for six games from the 14th to the 20th before the Giants head out to San Diego and LA from September 21-26. Then, it's a season finale at home against the Padres from the 28th-30th. But nobody in the National League has a tougher schedule than the Dodgers, who still have to fight through 29 games against playoff hopefuls. There's four in Atlanta starting August 24, six against the Cards -- three at home and three in St. Louis -- from August 31-September 2 and the 7th-9th, and three in San Diego followed by three more on the road in San Francisco. Then the Padres, Diamondbacks and Giants come to LA from the 17th-26th before the Dodgers finish up the season in Arizona for three games. Count 'em up: only eight of their remaining 37 games against sub-.500 teams, and 22 games against the Cardinals, Padres, Giants and Diamondbacks in the final 24 days of the season. And all that without Darren Driefort and Andy Ashby, and with Kevin Brown struggling with his own arm problems. Things look pretty bleak for the Dodgers.
Spoiler candidates in the National League include the Brewers, who play the above eight teams 25 times, the Reds (23) and Marlins (22). But the real dark horse here is San Diego, who's barley sitting within shouting distance of the wild card leaders. But the Padres could turn things around in a hurry with 28 games remaining against the Braves, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Giants and Dodgers. With an underrated offense and a lock-down bullpen, the Pads could end up wrecking a few seasons while also writing a storybook ending to their own.
Come October, I see the National League standings shaking out like this:
East
It's tough to bet against the Braves, especially since they're 5-7 against the Phillies this season. But I'll do it just for fun. Scott Rolen is starting to hit and rookie SS Jimmy Rollins hasn't shown any signs of slowing down. Meanwhile, the Braves just don't have the pitching they've been blessed with in previous seasons. It'll be close, but I'll go with the Phillies -- but they'll obviously have to play the Braves extremely well in those seven mid-September games.
Central
The Astros should be able to hold off the Cubs and Cardinals, with Jeff Bagwell making a final MVP push. The Houston staff is the most inexperienced of the three, but Wade Miller, Roy
Oswalt, Shane Reynolds and newcomer Pedro Astacio will get the job done. That finale in Chicago from September 27-30 will be one of the best series' in baseball.
West
With that schedule and the various injuries, the Dodgers are toast. And Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson may form the best 1-2 punch in baseball, but the rest of the Arizona staff is pretty weak. That leaves the Giants, by default. It doesn't matter much, though, as Barry Bonds won't be able to get San Fran out of the first round of the playoffs.
Wild Card
The Cardinals are the hottest team in baseball right now and they don't show any signs of slowing down. A strong rotation and a hot Mark McGwire make these guys tough to beat.
No matter how it turns out though -- in either league -- it'll make for some great TV. Better than Murder in Small Town X and Big Brother 2, at least.
In the Bullz-Eye
The NFL's possible replacement referees. With the league and its regular refs still locked up in an ugly contractual dispute, the NFL has begun hiring replacement officials just in case an agreement can't be reached. These replacements would love to get into an NFL game and bring in some real money ($2,000 per game), and nobody could really blame them for accepting the offer. But Ed Hochuli, president of the officials' union and one of the league's top referees, sent a mass e-mail to the potential replacements that stated: "What may sound like a fun diversion, a fun couple of games for you, is my career. Working as a scab will actually hurt and likely kill any chances you would have of ever getting into the NFL... . Don't go down as one of the scabs who stabbed the NFL guys in the back." Tough choice -- glad I've only got to write about these guys.