Bullz-Eye's NFL Game of the Week
12/28/2006
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We’ll be dissecting one big NFL match-up every week throughout the season, whether it's a long-standing rivalry, a divisional clash or a game with playoff implications.
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This week’s match up: Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles
Date: Sunday, Dec. 31
Time: 4:15pm ET, FOX
Why to tune in:
This is the second week in a row that the NFL is chock full of match-ups that are Game of the Week-worthy. One of the better games is Jacksonville traveling to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs. However, if the Jets beat the lowly Raiders – which, as we all know, should happen – then both the Jags and Chiefs are left on life support regarding the postseason. The Patriots and Titans offer a great game, but New England has already clinched its division, so there’s no sense getting into what the backups have to do to win. With that said, the most compelling contest takes place in Philadelphia. A little over a month ago the Eagles were left for dead when Donovan McNabb was placed on injured reserve with a season-ending knee injury. But 36-year-old Jeff Garcia has risen from the ruins of Cleveland and Detroit to take Philly on a wild four-game winning streak and back into the playoff picture. The Eagles clinched a postseason spot last Monday by beating Dallas. Now Philly, unthinkable only a few weeks ago, has its sights on winning the NFC East. The Eagles need a win against the reeling Falcons, but the task won’t be easy with Atlanta still having a shot at the postseason. These two teams were building quite a rivalry last season before both squads missed the playoffs. Remember the Monday night contest last year when Jeremiah Trotter and Kevin Mathis were both tossed for fighting before the game? The Falcons need some outside help to make the playoffs, but a win would go a long way in saving the hide of head coach Jim Mora. Will the Eagles be crowned NFC East Champions by the end of the day Sunday, or will Atlanta keep its playoff hopes alive and possibly save Mora in the process with an upset? Let’s dive into the match ups.
When the Falcons have the ball:
Part of the reason Mora and his staff are on the hot seat is because the offense can never get revved up. Atlanta is loaded with talent, but offensive coordinator Greg Knapp is often ridiculed for his play calling and Mora for his overall preparation. Atlanta has no identity on offense, a criticism raised by Michael Vick last week after a 10-3 loss to the Panthers. Knapp needs to call more rollout plays for Vick and create a moving pocket with the offensive line. The Atlanta offensive line is filled with smaller players, but they’re quick and would be great in a moving pocket. This would give Vick more room to work and he could have the option to run or pass. Vick’s vision would increase too, because he could then see the entire field. Vick isn’t that tall, so when he does a standard drop back, a lot of the time his linemen block out his vision, which leads to poor accuracy on Vick’s part. Rollouts would be great for stud tight end Alge Crumpler too. Teams haven’t been able to stop Crumpler on crossing routes and it’s a mismatch in Atlanta’s favor when the sneaky-quick tight end is lined up on a linebacker. The Falcons already have an explosive ground game with Warrick Dunn and rookie speedster Jerious Norwood, so getting Vick on the move is imperative and it will keep the Eagles on their heels. Knapp needs to do a better job of keeping the defense guessing, which is something he seldom excels at on game days.
Defensively, first and foremost for Philly, the Eagles need to take away the run. In the 2004 NFC Championship Game between these two clubs, middle linebacker Jeremiah Trotter was fantastic at stuffing Dunn and keeping Vick in the pocket. Trotter will be at his best if outside linebackers Dhani Jones and Omar Gaither stay at home and defend the cutback runs that Atlanta does so well. If Jones and Gaither don’t hold their positions, the Falcons’ ground game feeds off undisciplined defenders. One of the best ways to defend Vick is to run a spy on him. Whether that will be Trotter or any other player, it’s important to just keep Vick contained. Trying to make a play on Vick by rushing him usually leads to break out runs. Making Vick beat you with his arm is where most defenses have success, because he just hasn’t been consistent in the passing game. If you’re Atlanta, sending an extra blocker like fullback Justin Griffith at the spy might be beneficial. The spy might get tired of getting ear-holed and go back to defensive coordinator Jim Johnson to alter the game plan. Part of the reason why the Eagles are on such a tear is because of the play of free safety Brian Dawkins. Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu are fantastic, but Dawkins might still be the best safety in the game today. Dawkins has killed Vick and the Falcons before. He’s at his best when reading the play correctly and either stuffing the run or playing centerfield in passing situations. The Eagles need to send Dawkins on plenty of blitzes seeing as how the Falcons have greatly struggled with pass protection this season. If Vick can’t make quick decisions in the passing game, Trotter and the defensive tackle combination of Mike Patterson and Darwin Walker will take away Dunn, and the Falcons offense will be rendered helpless.
When the Eagles have the ball:
Garcia must have taken an anti-aging pill before the Eagles signed him, because this guy has been on fire. Garcia has never had great arm strength, but he’s accurate and gives himself more time to throw by being mobile in the pocket. What most scouts would deem poor mechanics, Garcia uses “happy feet” in the pocket and is tough to sack. The best way for Philly to succeed this Sunday is to attack that Falcons beleaguered secondary. Atlanta defenders love to play a cushion and keep everything in front of them, so Philly needs to attack the Falcons with deep vertical routes. DeAngelo Hall is turning into a solid cover corner, but he will gamble and eventually get burned. With this in mind, Philly needs to keep hurling passes Donte’ Stallworth’s way and eventually Hall might get beat deep. Free safety Chris Crocker has been a mess this year in deep coverage, so sending tight end L.J. Smith over the middle in front of Crocker may get the safety to bite and Stallworth can get behind the coverage. Brian Westbrook might not see a lot of daylight against Atlanta’s decent run defense, but since Marty Mornhinweg took over the play calling from head coach Andy Reid a few weeks ago, Westbrook has been used in all sorts of different formations. Westbrook is such a threat in the passing game and can be lined up at wide receiver, in a single-back formation or in a traditional set. Keith Brooking is the backbone of Atlanta’s defense, but he has had trouble keeping up with Westbrook in the past. Mornhinweg needs to design formations and call plays that will get Westbrook one on one with Brooking to create a mismatch. The better option for the Falcons would be to have strong safety Lawyer Milloy spy Westbrook. Milloy has been a stud against the run this season and he has more speed than Brooking to keep up with Westbrook. This would free up Brooking to do what he does best too, which is blitzing off the edge.
Offensive tackles William Thomas and Jon Runyan must be aware of the speed the Falcons have on their defensive line. When healthy – which is never – John Abraham is a talented pass rusher who excels at stripping the quarterback from the backside. Defensive tackle Rod Coleman and space-eater Grady Jackson create a great 1-2 punch in the belly of Atlanta’s defense. Coleman is the better pass rusher and Jackson excels at creating pressure up the field in stuffing the run. The Eagles are going to have a hard time double-teaming any one of Atlanta’s defensive linemen, so quick passing routes are going to be a must for Garcia and the rest of Philly’s offense. With this in mind, Falcons defensive coordinator Ed Donatel needs to get his corners up in the faces of Eagle receivers. Hall and rookie Jimmy Williams can both be physical, so disrupting Stallworth and Reggie Brown’s routes from the line of scrimmage may create more sack opportunities for the front seven. Donatel would be wise to disguise his blitzes and line up athletic outside linebacker Michael Boley all over the field. As fast as the Falcons are defensively, the unit is small on a whole and tends to wear down as the game goes on. Mornhinweg must not give up on the run game because the Falcons will tire.
Prediction:
Philadelphia is far and away the better team right now. The Eagles seem to be more focused and the job Reid has done keeping his team together is Coach of the Year-worthy. But what Falcons team will show up? Atlanta is a resilient bunch and often wins on talent alone, but when the game plan is terrible, the Falcons are atrocious. Atlanta has all the talent to beat Philly, but if they can’t score quickly, the Eagles may win in a blowout. Atlanta is notorious for starting slow on both sides of the ball, working hard to get back in the game and then running out of gas in the fourth quarter. My guess is that the Eagles will jump out early, but the Falcons will make it close in the second and third quarters only to fall short in the fourth. Vick will provide a few dazzling runs, but Dawkins will eat him up in the passing game and Trotter and Co. will stuff the ground game.
Philly goes on to capture the NFC East crown while Mora and his staff don’t make it off the field before Atlanta owner Arthur Blank shows them their walking papers: Eagles 27, Falcons 17.
ARCHIVE:
Week 1: Colts at Giants
Week 2: Steelers at Jaguars
Week 3: Jaguars at Colts
Week 4: Chargers at Ravens
Week 5: Cowboys at Eagles
Week 6: Seahawks at Rams
Week 7: Giants at Cowboys
Week 8: Colts at Broncos
Week 9: Colts at Patriots
Week 10: Bears at Giants
Week 11: Chargers at Broncos
Week 12: Bears at Patriots
Week 13: Cowboys at Giants
Week 14: Saints at Cowboys
Week 15: Bengals at Colts
Week 16: Bengals at Broncos
Questions or comments on this game? Send them to astalter@bullz-eye.com.