What constitutes a "breakout" season? To me, it's a talented player who has been in the league at least one year who is about to see a big increase in minutes. Here is a list of 10 players (in no particular order) who I think will have career seasons in 2009-10.

1. Tyrus Thomas, Bulls
The 23 year-old is entering his fourth season and will probably be the Bulls' starter at power forward. He averaged 10.8 points and 6.5 rebounds in 27.5 minutes last season, and an increase in minutes would enhance those numbers. Now that he has an effective mid-range jump shot, he can use that and his athleticism to get to the basket.

2. Anthony Randolph, Warriors
Randolph is a popular breakout pick this season after a great summer league and flashes of brilliance in his rookie year. He only played about 18 minutes per game last season, and is playing almost 28 minutes in the preseason, starting every game in which he's appeared. Don Nelson may not start him during the regular season since he's been battling some injuries, but expect him to get plenty of run this year.

3. Anthony Morrow, Warriors
Let's stay in Oakland, shall we? Not to read too much into preseason stats, but through eight games, the second-year Morrow is averaging 22.0 points on 58% shooting (52% from 3PT). He's going to come off the bench, but that might not last for long if Stephen Jackson eventually gets traded. Morrow is one of the league's best shooters, nailing almost 47% of his threes a year ago.

4. Aaron Brooks, Rockets
With Yao Ming out and Tracy McGrady hobbled, the Rockets don't have a whole lot of offensive options and Brooks is one of the best shooters the team has. He averaged 11.2 points in 25 minutes per game last season. If he gets 32-35 minutes per game, he should average somewhere in the 14-16 ppg range.

5. Louis Williams, 76ers
He's a very different player than Andre Miller, the guy he's being asked to replace. He isn't going to drop a lot of dimes, but the guy can score, and if he gets starter's minutes his averages are going to jump. In the preseason, he's averaging 14.9 ppg in 27 minutes of PT.

6. Courtney Lee / Chris Douglas-Roberts, Nets
I'm listing them both because it's not clear which will be the Nets' starting shooting guard on opening day. It may not matter because the other might be the starting small forward. In the preseason, CDM and Lee are averaging 18.5 ppg and 17.0 ppg, respectively. While Devin Harris and Brook Lopez are likely to lead the Nets in scoring, Lee and Douglas-Roberts could both average 12-14 ppg.

7. J.R. Smith, Nuggets
Smith has already had a breakout year (in his first season with the Nuggets), but the departure of Dahntay Jones gives Smith the chance to start. George Karl started Jones last season because of his commitment to defense, so it's just as likely that he finds another defensive-oriented off guard to fill that vacated role. Smith has the talent to start, but can he keep his head on straight and play enough defense to keep Karl happy? (By the way, he's suspended for the first seven games.)

8. Channing Frye, Suns
After a nice rookie season (12p/6r) in New York, Frye wasn't as good in his second season and landed in Portland where he didn't get much run. Now he's the starting center in Phoenix and is averaging 12.3 points and 4.0 rebounds in 26.8 minutes of playing time. The Suns are awfully thin on the front line, so I wouldn't be surprised if Frye ends up playing 30-35 minutes a game.

9. Julian Wright, Hornets
While he isn't shooting particularly well (41%) in the preseason, it appears that Byron Scott has finally given up on Peja Stojakovic and is ready to hand over the keys to Wright, who has started all six preseason games in which he has appeared. He's a great athlete and versatile player, but the big mystery with Wright is his three-point shooting. He hit 10-24 attempts in his rookie season, but just 2-21 in his second year. The Hornets need shooters for Chris Paul to pass to, so if Wright doesn't start knocking down shots, Scott might go back to Peja.

10. Hakim Warrick, Bucks
Warrick is leading the Bucks in preseason scoring with 14.4 ppg. He'll battle with Luc Mbah a Moute, Carlos Delfino, Ersan Ilyasova and Joe Alexander for minutes. Scott Skiles will likely start Mbah a Moute at one forward spot because he's a great defender, but the other is up for grabs. Regardless, Warrick should get plenty of minutes and is on a one-year contract, so he's very motivated.

This year, we’re doing a division-by-division preview with quick-hitting analysis for every team in the league. If a franchise is a legitimate championship contender, I’ll focus on what stars have to line up for a title run. If a team is a playoff “also-ran,” I’ll identify the weaknesses that have to be shored up via trade, free agency or draft over the next couple of seasons to make it a contender. If a team is likely to miss the playoffs, I’ll take a look at the salary cap, and provide a blueprint for how the team should proceed in the near future to get back in the postseason. At the end of each divisional preview, I’ll provide some (random) thoughts for the fantasy hoopsters out there.

For each division, I’ll pick the order of finish. You’ll also see the team’s league-wide preseason rank in parenthesis.

Boston Celtics (5)
Normally, the return of a healthy Kevin Garnett would be enough to thrust the Celtics back to contender status, but with the way the rich got richer this summer in terms of talent, GM Danny Ainge knew he had to improve his team, so he went out and signed Rasheed Wallace to give the C’s another big body up front. If everyone is healthy, minutes are going to be a problem, as Glen Davis and Kendrick Perkins deserve to play, but one might get squeezed out by Garnett and Wallace. In the backcourt, the big question seems to be the overall attitude of Rajon Rondo, who is running out of time to sign an extension. It is unlikely that he and the Celtics will come to terms by the end of the month as the two sides are reportedly far apart in perceived value. Marquis Daniels was brought in to shore up the backcourt, so the Celtics will once again head into the season with a deep and talented roster. But can everyone stay healthy? If Garnett, Rondo, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen are all feeling good come playoff time, the Celtics will be a serious threat to make the Finals.

Philadelphia 76ers (16)
Elton Brand’s season-ending injury but the kibosh on the Sixers’ title hopes last year. They still made the playoffs without him, and the truth is, he didn’t play all that well when he was healthy. He has appeared in a grand total of 37 games over the last two seasons, so his heath is one of the biggest challenges facing this team. After all, the franchise has plenty of talent to make the playoffs. The Sixers have the versatile Andre Iguodala, the up-and-coming Thaddeus Young, and a few nice prospects in Louis Williams, Marreese Speights and Jrue Holiday. Williams’ challenge is to replace the production of Andre Miller, who is now with the Blazers. Williams is more of a scoring guard than a playmaker, so it will be up to Iguodala to help distribute the ball. Given his fragility, the Sixers are probably regretting hitching their wagon to Brand, but it’s too late now. Like it or not, they will sink or swim for the next few years with the Brand-Iguodala-Young core.

Toronto Raptors (19)
Question: What was Toronto’s win total the last three years? Answer: 47, 41 and 33. In other words, the Raptors have been heading in the wrong direction, especially considering that they’re building around Chris Bosh (in his prime), Jose Calderon (in his prime) and Andrea Bargnani (entering his prime). Bosh becomes a free agent after the season, and odds are that he’s going to be wearing a different jersey next season. GM Bryan Colangelo knows that the best way to convince him to stay is to get the Raptors back in upper echelon in the East. To that end, he went out and signed Hedo Turkoglu, who made a last second decision to head to Toronto instead of Portland. The general consensus is that Turkoglu is a tad overrated, and considering he’s already 30 years old, one wonders how effective he’ll be in years three through five of his contract. Still, the Raptors had a hole at small forward and they filled it with a versatile player who can shoot, handle the ball and rebound. Colangelo also added Jarrett Jack in free agency, Amir Johnson via trade and DeMar DeRozan in the draft. With all the drama surrounding LeBron James and Dwyane Wade’s impending free agency, Bosh may be the most likely to change zip codes in the next year, so the Raptors will be an interesting team to watch this season. The playoffs are very much in reach, but it’s probably going to take a trip to the Eastern Conference semis to convince Bosh that the franchise is headed in the right direction.

New York Knicks (20)
In his first year with the team, Mike D’Antoni helped to make the Knicks somewhat competitive again. They won nine more games than the previous year, and drastically improved their ability to score. But heading into the 2009-10 season, the franchise is simply treading water, seemingly waiting for 2010 free agency. The team is building around…well…a player to be named later. The Knicks only have six contracts that extend past this season, and they’ll do their darndest to get rid of Eddy Curry ($11.3 M) and Jared Jeffries ($6.9 M) to give themselves as much cap space as possible next summer. As it stands, the Knicks are projected to have about $23 M in cap space, and they’d like to free up another $5 million so that they can afford to land two big-name free agents next summer. The weather isn’t as nice as Los Angeles or Miami, but the Big Apple is a very desirable destination for free agents looking to enhance their profile by playing on a big stage. So if there is one team that could pull a 180 and land a couple of superstars en route to instant title contention, it’s the Knicks. Keep an eye on the development of Jordan Hill and Brandon Jennings. The 2009 Draft had a ton of good point guard prospects, and the Knicks failed to find their PG of the future, instead drafting a power forward, which was already a position of strength (David Lee). If Jennings blows up and Hill struggles, GM Donnie Walsh will likely come under fire. Then again, if he can land LeBron and Chris Bosh, nary a Knick fan will care.

New Jersey Nets (27)
Think about it – is there a team better primed for a run at LeBron James or Dwyane Wade than the Nets? It looks like they are headed to Brooklyn, they already have an All-Star on the roster (Devin Harris), another one in the making (Brook Lopez) and a ton of cap space (~$20 million) next summer. The Bulls might have the edge with Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, Kirk Hinrich and Joakim Noah, but it’s close. The Nets created all of this cap space by trading away Vince Carter, but managed to get the up-and-coming Courtney Lee in the deal, so it wasn’t a true salary dump. Even if the Nets miss out on LeBron and Wade, they wouldn’t be a bad landing spot for the next tier of free agents: Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, Joe Johnson and Carlos Boozer. Since they are set at point guard and center (two tough positions to fill), the Nets have some flexibility heading into the summer of 2010. This year? They’re going to be bad, but look for Lopez to make a leap as the team uses him more and more to facilitate the offense.

Fantasy Thoughts: Wilson Chandler is currently going in the 9th or 10th round, but is a nice guy to have on your roster. In roto leagues, he’s a decent source of steals and threes, while also scoring and rebounding pretty well for a small forward...David Lee is a fringe first round talent, but he’s going in the middle of the third. Don’t be afraid to pull the trigger in the late second or early third. He should be a double-double machine once again in another contract year…Brook Lopez averaged 13/8 last season in 31 minutes. In the preseason, he’s averaging 16/8 in 30 minutes, and isn’t shooting the ball particularly well. Since he’s likely to top 50% from the field and average 33-35 minutes a game, a 17/10 season is not out of the question…Chris Douglas-Roberts and Courtney Lee are battling to be the starting shooting guard for the Nets, but Lawrence Frank may end up playing them together since Terrence Williams is the next best option on the wing…Despite a substandard preseason, expect Jose Calderon to finish in the top 10 amongst point guards again this season. He is too good of a shooter and playmaker to be held down for long...Louis Williams may end up averaging the fewest assists amongst starting point guards, but he can score. He’s currently the PG26 in live drafts, which seems about right...Marreese Speights would be a good handcuff for Elton Brand. The second-year player is averaging 13.7 points and 8.4 rebounds in 21.6 preseason minutes...Not only are Rasheed Wallace’s numbers likely to take a hit now that he’s playing for the balanced Celtics, he will also have a negative impact on Kendrick Perkins and Glen Davis.

Every year, first-year players greatly impact the NBA regular season. They tend to thrive on bad teams for two reasons: 1) the best players generally go early in the draft to struggling franchises, and 2) those teams need their services so they play heavy minutes. In fact, over the last three years, the players that made the All-Rookie First Team played an average of 29.0 minutes per game. Playing time is opportunity, and with opportunity comes production.

Over that span, players that were named to the All-Rookie First Team played on teams with a combined 500-730 (.407) record. Only four players -- Andrea Bargnani and Jorge Garbajosa on the 2006-07 Raptors, Luis Scola on the 2007-08 Rockets and Michael Beasley on the 2008-09 Heat -- played on teams with a winning record. The other 11 players were on teams that averaged 25 wins.

Looking ahead to the 2009-10 NBA season, there are a number of rookies that will get big minutes on bad teams. I'm going to rank them in order of what I perceive to be their talent plus their opportunity, because a rookie needs both to succeed in his first year. Fantasy hoopsters should take note: Rookies can be great picks on draft day, if you know which ones to pick.

1. Blake Griffin, Clippers
In the preseason, Griffin is averaging 14.7 points and 8.5 rebounds in 28.5 minutes per game. The Clippers found a taker for Zach Randolph to clear the way for Griffin to start at power forward, and he should be a fixture there for the next few years. I expect he'll get 33-35 minutes per game during the regular season, so 16-17 points and 9+ rebounds are a reasonable expectation. From a fantasy perspective, he's currently PF19 off the board, but will likely finish as the PF11 or better if he stays healthy. 10/27 Update: He didn't stay healthy. Griffin will miss six weeks with a stress fracture in his knee.

2. Tyreke Evans, Kings
Evans has started each of the Kings' five preseason games and is averaging 15.2 points, 5.4 rebounds and 5.2 assists in 33.8 minutes per game. While he's not a traditional point guard, the Kings want him to attack the rim and then make the right decision based on how the defense responds. His preseason numbers are a pretty good estimate for his production this season, so it looks like he is Griffin's biggest competition for Rookie of the Year honors. Fantasy-wise, he is currently PG32 in live drafts, but if his preseason numbers translate (and he cuts back on the turnovers a bit), he'd finish in the top 20.

3. Brandon Jennings, Bucks
Jennings was the Naismith Prep Player of the Year in 2008 and spent last year playing professionally in Italy. He still has a lot to learn about shot selection, but his preseason assist/turnover ratio (2.20) isn't far off Derrick Rose's rookie year ratio (2.52). Jennings is averaging 11.6 points, 6.3 assists and 2.7 rebounds in 25.7 preseason minutes, so if he can get along with Scott Skiles and start this season, he'll have a great shot at the All-Rookie Team. From a fantasy perspective, he should be able to produce like D.J. Augustin did last year.

4. James Harden, Thunder
In 27.6 preseason minutes, Harden is averaging 11.8 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.0 assists per game. These aren't great numbers, but Harden is going to get plenty of minutes at off guard for the Thunder. Scouts considered him one of the most "NBA-ready" players in last year's draft, so he should work out the kinks pretty quickly. For now, I'd stay away from Harden in fantasy drafts, but once he finds his shot and settles in, he should start posting some nice lines.

5. DeJuan Blair, Spurs
Blair is killing people in the preseason, averaging 14.7 points and 8.2 rebounds in 18.0 minutes per game. There's room on the Spurs' front line for that kind of production. He's likely to play behind Antonio McDyess, and his knees are something of a concern, but when the guy is on the court, he's a monster. He is currently PF31 in fantasy drafts, and while he's not likely to keep up this production per minute, his playing time should increase. An efficient 12/8 is worth having on your roster, so take a flier on Blair in the late rounds.

Other players to watch: DeMarr DeRozan, Raptors; Jonny Flynn, Timberwolves; Stephen Curry, Warriors; Gerald Henderson, Bobcats; Taj Gibson, Bulls; Tyler Hansbrough, Pacers; Hasheem Thabeet, Grizzlies; Sam Young, Grizzlies

This year, we’re doing a division-by-division preview with quick-hitting analysis for every team in the league. If a franchise is a legitimate championship contender, I’ll focus on what stars have to line up for a title run. If a team is a playoff “also-ran,” I’ll identify the weaknesses that have to be shored up via trade, free agency or draft over the next couple of seasons to make it a contender. If a team is likely to miss the playoffs, I’ll take a look at the salary cap, and provide a blueprint for how the team should proceed in the near future to get back in the postseason. At the end of each divisional preview, I’ll provide some (random) thoughts for the fantasy hoopsters out there.

For each division, I’ll pick the order of finish. You’ll also see the team’s league-wide preseason rank in parenthesis. Be sure to check back on Saturday for the preview of the Atlantic Division.

Cleveland Cavaliers (2)
By now, everyone knows that LeBron James is set to become a free agent next summer. Feeling the proverbial heat, the Cavs swung a trade for Shaquille O’Neal hoping that he’ll be able to put the team over the top. It would be tough for LeBron to justify bolting Cleveland if the franchise is coming off of a championship, so the Cavs are “all in.” In addition to acquiring Shaq, they signed Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon and re-upped with Anderson Varejao. It might take some time for this roster to gel, but there’s no doubt that the Cavs have enough talent to go the distance. While making the transition from a declining Zydrunas Ilgauskas to a declining Shaq has its advantages, it’s going to be tough for LeBron to find driving lanes with Shaq and Varejao clogging the lane. Neither can shoot the ball effectively outside of 10 feet, so their defenders will be better able to get to the paint to help on LeBron. Look for the Cavs to run a lot of pick-and-rolls with LeBron and Shaq, which will force Shaq’s defender away from the basket. This should help, but there still is the matter of Varejao’s man defending the basket. It’s crucial that the Cavs get good shooting from Parker, Mo Williams, Delonte West and Daniel Gibson. Those players have to make the defense pay when it sags to help on LeBron. From a salary cap perspective, the Cavs realized that it wouldn’t do any good to have cap space if the payroll number keeps falling, and the Varejao signing ate up whatever space they would have otherwise had. In the unlikely event that Shaq turns out to be a complete disaster, they could always move him before the trade deadline in a last-ditch attempt to retool before the playoffs. For obvious reasons, of all the teams in the league, the Cavs may have the most riding on the 2009-10 season.

Chicago Bulls (11)
The young Bulls gave the KG-less Celtics a great run in last year’s playoffs, and with Derrick Rose looking like the real deal, Chicago is a franchise on the rise. They let Ben Gordon walk this summer, but the return of Luol Deng and the emergence of John Salmons should offset the loss of Gordon’s scoring. The Bulls will likely start Rose and Salmons in the backcourt, with Deng and the up-and-coming Tyrus Thomas framing Joakim Noah on the front line. This gives the team an experienced bench that includes Kirk Hinrich, Brad Miller and Jannero Pargo alongside rookies Taj Gibson and James Johnson. The Bulls are still missing a strong post presence and are probably too inexperienced to upset a healthy Cavs, Celtics or Magic squad in a seven-game playoff series, but Chicago looks like they’ll battle with the Hawks for that #4 seed in the postseason. Financially, the Bulls are expected to have about $13 million in cap space heading into next summer, so they are a real threat to coax Dwyane Wade back to his hometown. D-Wade would look real nice in a backcourt with Rose.

Detroit Pistons (18)
GM Joe Dumars changed the course of the franchise when he traded Chauncey Billups to the Nuggets for Allen Iverson. For a time, it looked like he was going to save the resulting cap space for next summer and make a run at one of the big-name free agents that will be available. Instead, he elected to spend it this summer, giving Ben Gordon a big deal (five years, $58 million) and investing heavily in Charlie Villanueva (five years, $38 million). The problem with these two players is that each has a reputation for being defensive liabilities. Dumars has proven that a team without a superstar can win a title, but those Pistons had a few players on the rise (Billups, Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince, who could all defend) alongside a talented vet (Rasheed Wallace) and a defensive stud (Ben Wallace). Then there’s the issue of Hamilton, who still has four years left on his deal. This means that two of the team’s three-highest players play the same position. That doesn’t usually work. Finally, there’s Rodney Stuckey, whose reputation has exceeded his on-court performance thus far. His presence prompted the Billups-for-AI swap and he needs to raise his game if the Pistons are to be anything more than a postseason also-ran in 2010.

Indiana Pacers (21)
The Pacers have been mired in the 35-36 win range for the last three seasons and don’t seem primed to break out of that rut this year. Danny Granger has blossomed into a star, but he doesn’t have a whole lot of help. T.J. Ford, Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy are nice complementary players, but Granger needs a sidekick or two. The Pacers’ biggest offseason acquisitions were Dahntay Jones, who is a good defender, and Tyler Hansbrough, who will probably be a better NBA player than most people think. In short, the Pacers didn’t do much this summer to improve. The good news is that the team has Granger locked up for five years in a reasonable contract and they’ll have a ton of cap space (~$27 million?) in the summer of 2011 to use to build around him. The last few playoff spots in the East are always up for grabs, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Pacers will stay healthy enough to post a 41-41 record and sneak into that #7 or #8 spot. But don’t hold your breath.

Milwaukee Bucks (24)
It’s hard to argue that the Bucks improved this offseason. They gave Richard Jefferson to the Spurs in a salary dump and let Charlie Villanueva and Ramon Sessions walk in restricted free agency with no compensation. GM John Hammond’s position is that the Bucks were not good enough to justify their luxury tax payroll, so tough choices had to be made so that they could gain the financial flexibility to make important acquisitions down the line. Once he drafted Brandon Jennings, the writing was on the wall for the up-and-coming Sessions, who eventually signed with the T-Woves after a long flirtation with the Knicks. He went on to sign Hakim Warrick to an affordable one-year deal that may backfire if Warrick earns a starting spot and wants a big contract next summer. If things go perfectly – Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut stay healthy, Jennings makes the All-Rookie Team, and the Bucks get good play from their bench – it’s not difficult to see the Bucks in the playoffs. But given how riddled this team has been with injuries the last few years, the postseason seems like a long shot. Redd has one more season left on his deal, so the Bucks will have considerable cap space (~$20 million) in the summer of 2011 to build around Bogut and (probably) Jennings. Until then, they’re just going to have to make do.

Fantasy Thoughts: Troy Murphy averaged a double-double last season, and should once again post good numbers even with rookie Tyler Hansbrough stealing some minutes at power forward. Murphy is one of those guys that is far better in fantasy circles than he is in real life because his game (rebounding, accurate shooting) translates well statistically…Hakim Warrick is leading the Bucks in scoring in the preseason and there are minutes available at forward if he can prove to Scott Skiles that he’s willing to play defense. I’d also expect Brandon Jennings to usurp Luke Ridnour as the starting PG. He isn’t going to shoot a high percentage, but he’ll get to the line and rack up the assists…Will Bynum has played really well in the preseason, and he’s pushing Rodney Stuckey for minutes. Don’t be surprised if he rotates in and sees 20-25 minutes per game…Tyrus Thomas is a popular breakout candidate and if he sees starter’s minutes, he should have a very nice year. Many fantasy hoopsters are predicting the fall of John Salmons, but even with Luol Deng’s return, there are still some shots that Ben Gordon left behind. I wouldn’t expect 18 ppg again, but an efficient 15-16p/4r/2a seems reasonable, making him a nice value in the 6th or 7th round in 12-team formats…If Delonte West can’t keep his head on straight, Anthony Parker is going to have every opportunity to become the Cavs’ starting shooting guard. J.J. Hickson could break out, but is still playing behind Anderson Varejao.

This year, we’re doing a division-by-division preview with quick-hitting analysis for every team in the league. If a franchise is a legitimate championship contender, I’ll focus on what stars have to line up for a title run. If a team is a playoff “also-ran,” I’ll identify the weaknesses that have to be shored up via trade, free agency or draft over the next couple of seasons to make it a contender. If a team is likely to miss the playoffs, I’ll take a look at the salary cap, and provide a blueprint for how the team should proceed in the near future to get back in the postseason. At the end of each divisional preview, I’ll provide some (random) thoughts for the fantasy hoopsters out there.

For each division, I’ll pick the order of finish. You’ll also see the team’s league-wide preseason rank in parenthesis. Be sure to check back on Thursday for a preview of the Central Division and on Saturday for the Atlantic Division.

Orlando Magic (4)
The Magic were busy this summer, but did they get better? Only time will tell. Vince Carter, Brandon Bass and Jason Williams are in, and Hedo Turkoglu, Courtney Lee and Rafer Alston are out. Orlando fended off a strong run from the Mavs for the services of Marcin Gortat, and actually played Mark Cuban and Co. pretty well by stealing the up-and-coming Bass away in the process. It appears that Bass may start at power forward, which would move Rashard Lewis to small forward. Since the mismatches Lewis created at power forward were one of the Magic’s strengths last season, this may not be written in stone. Orlando also has the option of starting Mickael Pietrus at small forward and moving Lewis back to PF. But the biggest change to the lineup is the loss of Turkoglu and the acquisition of the 32 year-old Vince Carter, who will likely take over Turkoglu’s initiation of the offense. But keep in mind that the Magic made their playoff run without the services of All-Star point guard Jameer Nelson, and his return will be a significant boost to an already strong roster. The Magic didn’t just tinker with their Finals roster from last year, they made a pretty major overhaul, so it will be interesting to see how this group gels. Stan Van Gundy is one of the best coaches in the NBA, and the regular season should provide plenty of time for the Magic to work the kinks out. A deep playoff run is likely.

Atlanta Hawks (12)
The Hawks seem to be treading water. They aren’t good enough to make a serious push for the Finals and they’re too good to get a franchise player in the draft. Joe Johnson has averaged at least 20/4/4 in his four years in Atlanta, but is he a player you build a franchise around? He’ll no doubt be looking for a max contract, and the Hawks will have to pony up if they expect to keep him. The bottom line is that Johnson has reached his ceiling; if the Hawks are to make a significant leap forward and become one of the East’s elite, they need one (or more) of their youngsters – Josh Smith, Al Horford or Marvin Williams – to enter All-Star territory. Of the three, Smith seems the most likely, but given all the progress the 23 year-old has made in his five-year career, he still seems a good bit away from the All-Star Game. At point guard, the Hawks re-signed Mike Bibby to a semi-affordable contract, and drafted Jeff Teague in the hopes that he can become the franchise PG that the Hawks have been searching for since 2005, when they realized it was a mistake to take Marvin Williams instead of Chris Paul and Deron Williams.

Miami Heat (13)
Miami was active in the offseason, but after a failed bid to convince Lamar Odom to trade Malibu for South Beach, the team enters the season with essentially the same roster it had in the playoffs. And with Dwyane Wade entering free agency after the season, this season largely becomes about convincing him to re-up. Working in the Heat’s favor is the tremendous amount of cap space they’ll have entering the fateful Summer of 2010. Even with Wade’s $17 M salary still on the books, the Heat project to have $20 million to work with, which is plenty of money to add another big-name free agent like Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer or…gasp…even LeBron James. Wade is focused on this season, and even with his super-human effort last year – 30.2 ppg, 7.5 apg, 5.0 rpg – the Heat were just a playoff also-ran. Miami needs Michael Beasley to take a step forward and for Jermaine O’Neal to squeeze another season out of his balky knees. But even so, the Heat aren’t a real threat to return to the Finals. Unless the Heat pull off a big in-season trade, which is a distinct possibility, this will be a wasted year for Wade and Co. In the end, Wade will probably re-sign, but he’s smart to keep his leverage. The Knicks and (Brooklyn) Nets are a threat to steal him away, but it’s more likely that Miami convinces Bosh or Stoudemire to sign, and that Wade will choose to stay put.

Washington Wizards (15)
Four years ago, the Wizards were perhaps the fourth or fifth best team in the Eastern Conference, and provided Gilbert Arenas is back to 100% (and Antawn Jamison’s preseason shoulder injury isn’t serious), there’s no reason they can’t get back to “also-ran” status this season. The Wizards are still building around the Arenas-Jamison-Caron Butler core, but it’s not a no-brainer. This group repeatedly failed to get past the Cavs a few years ago, so what makes the franchise think that they’ll have success in an Eastern Conference that now has two more big dogs in the Magic and Celtics? The team is in salary cap hell, with Arenas under contract for another four years (at the tune of $80 million) and Jamison owed more than $28 million through the 2011-12 season. Their best value – Caron Butler – is a free agent in 2011, and the Wizards may not be able to afford to keep him. In short, the franchise is no man’s land, and there’s no easy way out.

Charlotte Bobcats (29)
The Bobcats made a big move this summer by trading Emeka Okafor for Tyson Chandler. The move saves the team almost $41 million, since Chandler’s contract expires in 2011 and Okafor is signed through 2014. The two are fairly similar players (and assuming Chandler is healthy – a big assumption), so the move shouldn’t adversely affect the team’s competitiveness. The Bobcats have a number of good players – Chandler, Gerald Wallace, Boris Diaw, Ray Felton and D.J. Augustin – but no stars, so while head coach Larry Brown will ensure the effort is there, the Bobcats are going to have a tough time winning games. Looking ahead, the team won’t have any serious salary cap flexibility until the summer of 2011, when some ugly contracts (Chandler, Vladimir Radmanovic, Nazr Mohammed) come off the books. It looks like Charlotte is going to be bad for a while.

Fantasy thoughts: Don’t expect Vince Carter to post the 21/5/5 line that he has posted the last couple of seasons. The Magic are far more balanced than the Nets were, and although VC will be actively involved in initiating the offense, he isn’t going to score 20+ on a nightly basis. An average in the high teens is reasonable, while his assists should hold steady (if not rise) along with a drop in boards (with Dwight Howard manning the middle)…The Hawks didn’t make many changes, so expect more of the same from Atlanta’s key players. Jeff Teague’s playing time will be limited with the presence of Mike Bibby, so don’t expect much from the rookie…A focused Michael Beasley has the potential to do some very great things. While there’s no guarantee that he’s going to keep his head on straight, he is posting 14/6 in 31 minutes in the preseason, and has started every game thus far. His performance last April – 21/9 in 31 minutes over an eight-game span – shows what he can do when he gets enough run…At press time, the Wizards haven’t settled on a shooting guard, but whoever gets the job probably won’t see too many attempts as there simply aren’t a lot of shots to go around in Washington…With a lack of a true star in Charlottte, expect Gerald Wallace to continue to stuff the box score. He’s a second round talent but is being drafted in the third or fourth round of fantasy drafts.

This year, we’re doing a division-by-division preview with quick-hitting analysis for every team in the league. If a franchise is a legitimate championship contender, I’ll focus on what stars have to line up for a title run. If a team is a playoff “also-ran,” I’ll identify the weaknesses that have to be shored up via trade, free agency or draft over the next couple of seasons to make it a contender. If a team is likely to miss the playoffs, I’ll take a look at the salary cap, and provide a blueprint for how the team should proceed in the near future to get back in the postseason. At the end of each divisional preview, I’ll provide some (random) thoughts for the fantasy hoopsters out there.

For each division, I’ll pick the order of finish. You’ll also see the team’s league-wide preseason rank in parenthesis. Be sure to check back over the course of the next couple of weeks for previews of each division.

San Antonio Spurs (3)
Did the Spurs do enough this summer to make another title run? On paper, it sure looks like they did. They added Richard Jefferson to shore up the small forward position, which has declined as Michael Finley and Bruce Bowen have aged. He’s a good defender, especially when he’s not asked to score 20 points a game, and the Spurs won’t put him in that position. The Spurs also signed Antonio McDyess, who is 35 years old, but was quite productive last season as he proved that he still has some gas left in the tank. San Antonio also had the luxury of a top 10 talent (DeJuan Blair) falling into its lap in the second round of the draft due to concerns about his knees, which served him quite well at Pitt. And, of course, the Spurs return their three principals. Tony Parker has developed into one of the best point guards in the game, Manu Ginobili is a clutch closer, and Tim Duncan is still Tim Duncan. Since his game isn’t dependent on athleticism, it continues to age well. The key for the Spurs is staying healthy. If Parker, Ginobili, Duncan and Jefferson are all healthy heading into the playoffs, San Antonio will be a very tough out, even for the Lakers.

Dallas Mavericks (7)
Despite the general consensus that the Mavs mortgaged their future when they traded away Devin Harris for an over-the-hill Jason Kidd, Dallas is still defending that move and thinks that they can win a championship now. Kidd is still a productive player, but he has trouble covering quick point guards on the defensive end, and when he’s asked to cover guys like Tony Parker, Chris Paul or even Deron Williams, things can get ugly. The Mavs tried to upgrade at center by adding Marcin Gortat, but was sideswiped by the Magic at the last minute. Orlando also managed to poach Brandon Bass, an up-and-coming power forward. However, the Mavs did manage to acquire Shawn Marion who, at just 31 years of age, still has quite a bit of basketball left to play. He wasn’t used in the right way in Miami, but played well down the stretch (16/9 in April) for the Raptors last year as they made a late-season run. Along with a still-in-his-prime Dirk Nowitzki, the ever-entertaining Josh Howard, and the instant offense of Jason Terry, the Mavs have a formidable core of players. Even with all this talent, it’s going to take a minor meltdown by the Lakers and the Spurs to give Dallas a legitimate shot at making another run to the Finals. However, if the Mavs gel quickly, they will be a factor in the West.

New Orleans Hornets (9)
It’s hard to figure out just what the Hornets are thinking. Last season, they tried to give Tyson Chandler to the Thunder in a salary dump, but OKC sent him back after their doctors said his foot was no good. Then this offseason they trade him for Emeka Okafor, who has four years and $52 million remaining on his contract. Were they trying to move Chandler because of his foot? Given the investment they made in Okafor, it would appear so. The Hornets looked to be on the cusp of a title run heading into last season, but the team regressed instead of progressing, and much of this can be blamed on poor play at the wing positions. Peja Stojakovic just isn’t what he used to be, and he’s only worth a fraction of the $28 million he’s due to make over the next two seasons. Morris Peterson also isn’t aging very well, prompting the team to sign James Posey two summers ago. He wasn’t the answer, so now Byron Scott is turning to Julian Wright (something he probably should have done last summer) at small forward, while Peterson seems to be holding off rookie Marcus Thornton for now. We know Chris Paul and David West are going to give the Hornets All-Star caliber play, so Wright can raise his game and a healthy Okafor can provide a steady double-double and defensive presence inside, the Hornets might find themselves in the thick of things in the West.

Houston Rockets (14)
Houston got rid of its most memorable player from last season – Ron Artest – because he was just too nutty. When the Lakers signed Ron-Ron away, GM Darryl Morey was happy to step in and sign the up-and-coming Trevor Ariza to a mid-level deal. Unfortunately, Yao Ming has another foot injury and is going to miss the entire season, so unless Tracy McGrady can come back completely healthy – and it’s a contract year, so I wouldn’t put it past him – the Rockets are going to have a tough time equaling last year’s success. T-Mac hasn’t yet played in the preseason, so there’s no telling what kind of season he’s going to be able to produce. Without their two stars, the Rockets have a lot of good players – Ariza, Shane Battier, Aaron Brooks, Luis Scola, Carl Landry, Kyle Lowry, Chuck Hayes – but no great ones, so it’s going to be difficult make a deep playoff run if T-Mac isn’t near 100%. Still, they play good defense and have great chemistry, so the Rockets will compete on a nightly basis during the regular season.

Memphis Grizzlies (29)
Ah, the Grizzlies. Just when you think that GM Chris Wallace is starting to redeem himself for the Pau Gasol fiasco by acquiring O.J. Mayo on draft day, he goes and trades for Zach Randolph and the $33 million remaining on his contract. Randolph isn’t a bad fantasy player, but I don’t know that any GM in the league would use him as part of a plan to get back to the playoffs. What’s worse, this move will make it impossible for the franchise to be much of a player in 2010’s free agency bonanza. The Allen Iverson deal is understandable. The Grizzlies need to put butts in the seats and AI can do that. Only it’s tough to rebuild with a couple of veterans who have a reputation for poisoning the locker room. Rookie Hasheem Thabeet will vie for minutes in a front line that includes Marc Gasol, Darrell Arthur, Sam Young and DeMarre Carroll. Don’t expect anything from the Grizzlies this season. They are a good bet to once again finish at the bottom of the division.

Fantasy Thoughts: Shawn Marion isn’t going to be the stat beast he was in Phoenix, but he showed flashes of his old self late in his stint with the Raptors, so he’s a nice value pick in the middle rounds…The Spurs look like they’ll be very balanced with the addition of Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess that the stars will probably be a little overvalued (though I love Tony Parker in the 4th) while guys like Jefferson, McDyess and Roger Mason, Jr., might be a little undervalued…Julian Wright isn’t shooting the ball all that well in the preseason, but he’s averaging 7.8 points and 5.8 rebounds in 25 minutes. If he can get his FG% up around where it was in his rookie year (53%), while playing at a level deserving of starters’ minutes, then he could be a nice sleeper in the late rounds…Look for Shane Battier to be more aggressive offensively with Yao out for the season and T-Mac trying to make his way back from injury. He’s not going to set the world on fire, but given his production in the other areas of the game – steals, assists, rebounds, blocks – he could be a valuable pick in the later rounds…Luis Scola should be one of the Rockets' go-to players as well, and is a great value in the 7th...Zach Randolph isn’t a bad pick in the 6th round. He’s not going to get you much in the way of steals, assists or blocks, but he’ll hit the occasional three and rack up the points and rebounds.

This year, we’re doing a division-by-division preview with quick-hitting analysis for every team in the league. If a franchise is a legitimate championship contender, I’ll focus on what stars have to line up for a title run. If a team is a playoff “also-ran,” I’ll identify the weaknesses that have to be shored up via trade, free agency or draft over the next couple of seasons to make it a contender. If a team is likely to miss the playoffs, I’ll take a look at the salary cap, and provide a blueprint for how the team should proceed in the near future to get back in the postseason. At the end of each divisional preview, I’ll provide some (random) thoughts for the fantasy hoopsters out there.

For each division, I’ll pick the order of finish. You’ll also see the team’s league-wide preseason rank in parenthesis. Be sure to check back over the course of the next couple of weeks for previews of each division.

Los Angeles Lakers (1)
The biggest obstacle for the Lakers this season is Ron Artest. This may sound odd, but the franchise is rolling the dice that Ron-Ron can behave for another season. They gave up on the quietly improving Trevor Ariza and made a big move to add the unruly Artest to the roster. This is risky, especially for a team coming off an impressive title run. Why fiddle with your chemistry like that? Well, GM Mitch Kupchak is well aware that the Lakers aren’t getting by on chemistry. They are a group of very talented players, held together loosely by Phil Jackson’s thoughtful approach and Kobe Bryant’s will to win. In other words, chemistry may not matter to the Lakers, because it’s a by-product of winning. (For most teams, it’s the other way around.) There's no doubt that Artest brings a lot to the table, but he's the biggest change from last season, so if the Lakers take a step back, he'll probably get the blame. Meanwhile, it appears that the big lineup question surrounds the Lamar Odom/Andrew Bynum quandary, but the truth is that Bynum’s game has not developed enough to demand that he be on the floor in crunch time. Odom can shoot (albeit, only a little) and is a terrific ball handler/passer, so Jackson knows that he can better space the court than Bynum can. When both Bynum and Pau Gasol are on the floor, the lane gets clogged and Kobe can’t find driving lanes, so look for Odom to get the edge in minutes again this year. But back to Artest -- assuming he accepts a reduction in his offensive role, the Lakers are the odds-on favorites to once again represent the West in the Finals.

Phoenix Suns (17)
The Suns took a wrong turn back in 2008 when they made the bold (but ill-advised) move to trade Shawn Marion for Shaquille O’Neal. That summer, they let Mike D’Antoni get away and tried to use a slower style that would benefit Shaq. The Suns have been on the slide ever since. Let’s not forget that in the 2007 Playoffs, Phoenix was a couple of bench-clearing suspensions away from upsetting the eventual-champion Spurs. Why not keep that team together for one more run? Anyway, not much is expected from this year’s Suns, whose best players are Steve Nash, a 35 year-old point guard that can’t defend in the half court, and Amare Stoudemire, a 6’10” man-child who doesn’t really want to play for the Suns. This looks like a team that’s rebuilding, but doesn’t even know it yet. They still have enough talent to make the postseason, but they aren’t going anywhere.

Los Angeles Clippers (23)
Poor Baron Davis. He was supposed to join Elton Brand in L.A. until Brand pulled…um…an Elton Brand and signed with Philadelphia instead. However, things are looking up. The Clippers won the lottery and the right to draft probable ROY Blake Griffin, and they somehow found a way to get rid of Zach Randolph’s anchor of a contract. (Just what was Memphis thinking?) The Clips are now in position to be a player in 2010 free agency and have a good nucleus of Griffin and Eric Gordon to build around. As for this year, it’s not going to be pretty. But Griffin is an upgrade over Randolph, so if their key players can stay healthy, the Clippers will be competitive. Just don’t expect them to go anywhere with GM/HC Mike Dunleavy leading the way.

Golden State Warriors (26)
Ah, what promise the Warriors once held. Remember when they upset the Mavericks in the first round of the playoffs? That seems like a long time ago. Baron Davis is gone, Monta Ellis is grumpy and Stephen Jackson wants out. Still, there is a lot of talent here, and if HC Don Nelson can somehow find a way to make it work, the Warriors are capable of winning 40 games. But right now, this franchise just looks dysfunctional, which is why Stephen Curry and Ricky Rubio didn’t want to work out before the draft. Curry drew the short straw, but he should make for an exciting backcourt mate with Ellis given a favorable matchup. However, the guy to watch is Anthony Randolph, who appears to be the only untouchable player on the roster. He’s averaging 14/9 in 29 minutes in the preasason, and I’d expect those numbers to rise as he consistently sees starter’s minutes. Also keep an eye on Anthony Morrow, who is averaging better than 22 ppg in the preseason and is absolutely killing people from long range. From a salary cap standpoint, the Warriors won’t have any financial flexibility until the summer of 2011, but they have the pieces to make a big splash via trade if they choose to do so.

Sacramento Kings (30)
The young Kings suffered a setback when starting small forward Francisco Garcia broke his hand in a freak balance ball accident, so the season isn’t getting off to a very good start. Sacramento went with Tyreke Evans in the draft and is now building around a backcourt that also features Kevin Martin. The Kings’ payroll is only around $40 million for the next three years, so they can become a player in free agency if they choose to do so. Considering Garcia’s injury, the signing of Andres Nocioni looks pretty good and he should provide a steady veteran presence on the wing. With Jason Thompson at power forward and Spencer Hawes at center, the Kings are very, very young, and they’re going to struggle mightily to win games this season.

Fantasy Thoughts: The Lakers are likely to use a three-headed monster at point guard again. Derek Fisher is the wily, but fading vet, Jordan Famar is (was?) the heir-apparent and Shannon Brown is the crowd favorite…Channing Frye is now the starting center in Phoenix and should be able to post 14/7 if he gets 30+ minutes per game…Looking for a couple of sleepers in the Bay Area? Look no further than Anthony Randolph and Anthony Morrow. Randolph tore up the summer league and is averaging 14/9 in the preseason, while Morrow is a long-range sniper who hit almost 47% of his three-point attempts last season…Even though the Kings will be bad, that doesn’t mean they should be ignored in fantasy hoops. Kevin Martin, Tyreke Evans, Spencer Hawes and Jason Thompson are all likely to post good numbers, and Andres Nocioni is a sleeper now that Francisco Garcia is sidelined for four months with a broken hand.

This year, we’re doing a division-by-division preview with quick-hitting analysis for every team in the league. If a franchise is a legitimate championship contender, I’ll focus on what stars have to line up for a title run. If a team is a playoff “also-ran,” I’ll identify the weaknesses that have to be shored up via trade, free agency or draft over the next couple of seasons to make it a contender. If a team is likely to miss the playoffs, I’ll take a look at the salary cap, and provide a blueprint for how the team should proceed in the near future to get back in the postseason. At the end of each divisional preview, I’ll provide some (random) thoughts for the fantasy hoopsters out there.

For each division, I’ll pick the order of finish. You’ll also see the team’s league-wide preseason rank in parenthesis. Be sure to check back over the course of the next couple of weeks for previews of each division.

Denver Nuggets (6)
The Nuggets are coming off a 54-28 record and a Northwest Division title. Of their top rotation players, they return all but Linas Kleiza (Olympiakos) and Dahntay Jones (Indiana). HC George Karl hopes that J.R. Smith can be a consistent starting shooting guard, but he won’t be afraid to use Arron Afflalo if Smith doesn’t play solid defense (or with his head on straight). Much of the credit to Denver’s fine season is given to Chauncey Billups, who provided steady play and leadership at point guard, but the health of Nene and Kenyon Martin should not be overlooked. The Nuggets re-signed Chris “The Birdman” Andersen to provide energy, rebounding and shot blocking off the bench. If the front line can stay healthy, Billups can stay productive at 33, and Smith can fulfill his considerable potential, then the Nuggets have enough talent to reach the Western Conference Finals for a second straight season. Even so, it’s hard to see Denver upending a healthy Lakers or Spurs squad in a seven-game series.

Portland Trail Blazers (8)
The Blazers finished with the same record as the Nuggets (54-28), but lost the tiebraker (divisional record) by one game. The team signed franchise player Brandon Roy to an extension, but is still negotiating with LaMarcus Aldridge. To date, this hasn’t become a major distraction, but that doesn’t mean that it won’t. The Blazers tried to make a splash in the offseason by courting Paul Millsap, Hedo Turkoglu and David Lee, but ended up with 33-year-old Andre Miller. While Miller is still productive in the twilight of his career, it’s not clear how he’s going to fit in with the grind-it-out Blazers. Portland was second-to-last in pace (possessions per game) and Miller is at his best when he’s pushing the ball. He’s also not much of an outside shooter, which could adversely affect the offensive spacing that enables Roy to be so devastating on the dribble. At press time, Steve Blake is still the starter, so Nate McMillan may have the same questions I do. One option would be to use Miller off the bench and have the second unit (Rudy Fernandez, Travis Outlaw, etc.) play at a much faster pace than the starters. Finally, the wild card is Greg Oden, who by most accounts is a changed man. If he taps into the potential that made him the #1 overall pick in 2007, the young Blazers may be ready to take the next step.

Utah Jazz (10)
Even though Utah returns most of its major pieces from a year ago, this is a team in flux. Carlos Boozer is in the final year of his contract, and this team can’t really move forward until his future is determined. Given the commitment that the team made to Paul Millsap, it is doubtful that Boozer is still with the Jazz after the February trade deadline. However, given the state of the economy, if the Jazz are in good shape heading into the second half of the season, they may elect to hold onto Boozer and let his contract expire instead of taking on salary in a trade. That said, this Utah team is going to play the same as they have for the last several years. They’ll push the ball, take good shots, and play hard-nosed defense. Jerry Sloan won’t live with anything less.

Oklahoma City Thunder (22)
For all the talk about how the Thunder improved last season, they only won three more games in 2008-09. However, the Thunder’s scoring margin dropped from -8.8 to -6.1, so they were far more competitive last season. Much of this had to do with the development of Kevin Durant, who shot almost 48% from the field in his second year after being a volume shooter (43%) in his rookie season. This was a direct result of his increased accuracy (42% vs. 29%) from long range. Meanwhile, rookie sensation Russell Westbrook showed flashes of becoming a star. He averaged 21/6/6 in the month of February, but he still has to work on his shot selection. The Thunder added the smooth and steady James Harden in the draft, and he should immediately start at shooting guard. Athletically, he’s better than people give him credit for, and he should thrive alongside Durant and Westbrook. This team is still a year or three away from the postseason, but they are headed in the right direction and have a ton of cap space over the next couple of years to add an impact player.

Minnesota Timberwolves (25)
Even though the T-Wolves lost their best player – Al Jefferson – for 32 games last season, they still managed to win 24 games, which is one more than the up-and-coming Thunder. Despite the Ricky Rubio debacle, Minnesota came out of the draft with two pretty good players in Jonny Flynn and Wayne Ellington. GM David Kahn also made a savvy signing by locking up Ramon Sessions for three years. Gone are Randy Foye, Mike Miller and Rashad McCants, and they will be replaced by Sessions, Flynn, Ellington and Damien Wilkins. Sessions and Flynn give the T-Wolves two good playmakers, and if the team can find some solid shooting to complement Jefferson’s low-post game, they should be competitive once again. Looking ahead, the team has a ton of cap space over the next couple of seasons, and with Sessions, Flynn, Kevin Love and Jefferson already on the roster, Minnesota would be a nice destination for a big-time wing like Joe Johnson, Manu Ginobili or (a healthy) Tracy McGrady. More likely, the team will continue to look to build through the draft and save that cap space for 2012, when one impact player could put the team back into the playoffs.

Fantasy Thoughts: If J.R. Smith does indeed start and get 30+ minutes on a nightly basis, then he should set career highs in points, rebounds and assists…Greg Oden has reportedly made great strides in his game, and is almost averaging a double-double in just 24 minutes in the preseason. If he can contain his fouls, he will be a surprise at center…Paul Millsap’s fantasy value may be depressed given Carlos Boozer’s absence, but if Boozer is traded by the February trade deadline, Millsap’s numbers will take a big jump as he gets more minutes. This could really help in a fantasy playoff run…James Harden should finish the season as one of the top fantasy rookies, assuming he utilizes good shot selection and can shoot 43%+ from the field…Nenad Krstic is slated to start for the Thunder, and if he can stay healthy, he should be able to post good numbers. He averaged 16/7 for the Nets three years ago and is only 26 years old…Ramon Sessions has all the talent to be a top 10 point guard in the NBA, but his upside in Minnesota is somewhat limited by the presence of Jonny Flynn.