Shaun Hill recently beat out Alex Smith for the starting QB gig in San Francisco, but his Average Draft Position (ADP) hasn't risen all that much. He's still available in roughly 85% of ESPN's fantasy leagues, and is a nice pickup for fantasy owners looking to bolster their QB position.

Last season, he took over a 2-6 team in Week 10, and averaged 234 passing yards, 1.5 pass TD and 0.3 rush TD over the last eight games of the season. Subtracting interceptions (1.0 per game), this works out to about 19.1 fantasy points per game. Had Hill averaged these numbers over the course of an entire season, he would have finished as last year's QB6, ahead of Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb. Moreover, he led the 49ers to a 5-3 record down the stretch, so he has proven that he can win games.

Amongst all NFL QBs, Hill also projects to face the 8th-easiest schedule. Obviously, projections are just projections, but all else being equal, I'd rather have a guy with a schedule that looks favorable. The 49ers are also likely to be trailing for much of the season, which will make it difficult for the team to follow through with its planned 60/40 run/pass split.

Hill doesn't have a lot of weapons in the passing game, but the situation is pretty much unchanged from last season, so that isn't a huge concern. If Vernon Davis ever taps into his significant potential and/or Michael Crabtree signs and learns the offense, it could be make Hill's job a lot easier.

Hill is an undrafted 29-year-old journeyman, so he isn't going to set the world on fire. I wouldn't expect Top 10 numbers, though his performance last season would indicate that he's capable of posting that kind of production. He's one of those QBs who plays for a pretty bad team that should be trailing much of the time. If he can stay healthy, this could result in fantasy gold.

Grab him as a fantasy backup, especially if you have a QB that has a bye during one of Hill's favorable matchups (McNabb, Warner, Ryan, Rivers, Brees, Rodgers and Cutler). He's also a great guy to look for as part of a QBBC, specifically when used with Matt Cassel, David Garrard and Eli Manning. Throughout the preseason, he has been readily available in the 12th round of most fantasy drafts, and has actually gone undrafted in many leagues.

Arnaz Battle pushing Josh Morgan for starting job?
Morgan has been one of my favorite sleepers, but his preseason has been pretty lackluster though he still holds onto the starting gig. Battle is a guy who always seems to produce in PPR formats, though he's less of an impact player and more of a possession WR.

Willie Parker will be the Steelers' feature back.
HC Mike Tomlin said of Parker that he is "our runner," the implication being that he's not going to be splitting carries with the other RBs in Pittsburgh. If this plays out in Week 1, it's an obvious boost to Parker's stock.

Chaz Schilens could return as early as Week 2.
He was one of my favorite sleepers, and now he's back on the radar. Pick him up if you have a spot.

Greg Camarillo the starter in MIA?
This position battle has been fluid all preseason with Camarillo, Brian Hartline and Davone Bess all holding the lead at times. If Camarillo is indeed the starter, he's worth a spot in PPR leagues.

Jay Cutler has "most faith" in TE Greg Olsen.
Olsen looks primed for a breakout season. Cutler loves to throw to his TE, and there aren't too many options in the Chicago passing game.

Over the course of his tumultuous four-year career, Chris Henry has caught a TD every 5.6 passes. That's a better ratio than Randy Moss (6.2), Terrell Owens (6.8) and Jerry Rice (7.3), in his 49er days. There has never been any doubt that the lanky 6'4" Henry had all the tools to be a star, but he just couldn't stay out of trouble.

According to ESPN, it was the NFL's disciplinary policy that helped Henry see the light. He should know -- he has been suspended for 14 games over the last three seasons.

"Yeah, it helped me," Henry said, according to USA Today. "It helped me focus up, and it made me realize that if I continually wanted to play, I had to do right and be a professional."

Since the Bengals drafted him in 2005 out of West Virginia, he's faced charges of marijuana possession, carrying a concealed weapon, drunken driving, providing alcohol to minors and assault.

Through four preseason games, Henry has 14 catches for 224 yards and four TD. Even though he's playing limited snaps, if he keeps that pace up, he's on his way to a 56-catch, 896-yard, 16-TD season. Obviously, it's tough to expect him to catch that many touchdowns, but double digits are certainly attainable given his TD-to-catch ratio. The receptions and yards are doable, and a 56-896-10 season would result in Top 20 fantasy numbers.

There are a few things standing in Henry's way: 1) Chad Ochocinco, who is hell bent on having a bounce-back year, 2) Laveranues Coles, who still has enough ability to earn snaps by catching all the underneath stuff, and 3) Henry's own demons, who may resurface at any time.

Still, with the departure of T.J. Houshmandzadeh and the (possible) decline of Ochocinco, the Bengals' WR pecking order is as fluid now as it's ever been, and if the immensely talented Henry has truly turned over a new leaf, he has the chance to break out in a big way.

From a fantasy perspective, it's hard not to like this guy in the late-middle rounds. In my drafts, it seems like he's the best WR on the board as early as the 8th or 9th in some cases, but owners can usually wait a bit longer to pull the trigger.

But don't wait too long.

Usually, the term “late bloomer” is used to describe someone that raises his level of play later than usual in his career, but in this case I’m referring to guys that have become fantasy relevant late in preseason. I wasn’t thinking about these players when I put together our fantasy football preview or even when I suggested several late round WR sleepers. These guys emerged as viable fantasy players as injuries took their toll, position battles were won and depth charts were adjusted.

Maybe it's too late to draft these players, but they're worth considering when scouring the waiver wire for help.

In no particular order...

1. Brian Hartline, WR, Dolphins
I really like Davone Bess and Greg Camarillo in PPR leagues, but it appears that Hartline has passed both on the Miami depth chart. This is a fuzzy, fluid battle. Hartline is a deep threat as evidenced by his 56-yard grab against the Bucs last week. Reports this week have Hartline and Camarillo rotating at flanker with the first team. Given his rise, I like the rookie Hartline here, but since he plays with a weak-armed QB on a run-oriented team, he’s only worth a flier in the late rounds. 9/7 Update: Now it appears that Greg Camarillo is the starter opposite Ginn in MIA. This situation continues to be very fluid.

2. Justin Gage, WR, Titans
3. Kenny Britt, WR, Titans
Nate Washington’s hamstring injury opened the door for both these players to get off to a good start early in the season. Britt is the high upside rookie, while Gage is the under-the-radar vet. Gage appears to be the safer option at this point, because he should still be the starter when Washington returns and has always been pretty productive when healthy. In the last preseason game, he posted 6-57-1 and looks to be Kerry Collins’ go-to guy. Meanwhile, Britt has shown flashes of excellence (like his 89-yard effort in the previous game), but he still looks overwhelmed at times. If you need help early on, Gage is your man, but Britt isn’t a bad guy to stash on your bench.

4. Shaun Hill, QB, 49ers
Now that it’s finally clear that he’ll be the 49ers’ starting QB, it’s safe to draft Hill in the later rounds. He was quite productive fantasy-wise in 2008, posting 227 yards and 1.4 pass TD over the last nine games. He also rushed for two TD. He faces an easy schedule and should have more weapons in the passing game once Michael Crabtree signs and if Vernon Davis ever reaches his potential. Hill is a sneaky good pick in the 11th or 12th round as a backup (or as part of a QBBC).

5. Chansi Stuckey, WR, Jets
As a rookie, Stuckey burst on the scene in 2008, posting 12-122-3 in his first three games, then proceeded to put up just 20-237-0 over the next 11 games. With Laveranues Coles gone, the Jets’ WR2 spot is open, and Stuckey appears to be the one to fill that role, at least for now. David Clowney is also a factor, but he’s been plagued by drops and is now looking like he’ll come in when the team needs a deep threat. Stuckey has good hands and agility, so he has the makings of a pretty good WR.

6. Jason Avant, WR, Eagles
While rookie Jeremy Maclin has struggled with fumbles in the return game, Avant has emerged as the WR most likely step in for Kevin Curtis as he battles a knee injury. Avant went for 5-92 against the Jaguars last week and with the way that Donovan McNabb likes to spread the ball around, he could be an effective WR in PPR leagues as long as he’s getting consistent playing time.

7. Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers
He’s supposedly going to split time with Donald Lee, but Finley is far more explosive in the passing game and the Packers will use him there. He has been tearing it up at camp, posting 7-74-2 in the last two preseason games. He’s flying under the radar, but is a nice upside guy to draft in the final rounds as a TE2.

8. Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants
For a while, it looked like the rookie was going to struggle to have much of an impact this season, but after a 144-yard, two-TD effort in the Giants’ third preseason game, Nicks seems primed to see a lot of playing time for a team in desperate need of someone to step it up at WR. This, coupled with Domenik Hixon’s drop-turned-INT bodes well for Nicks.

9. Troy Williamson, WR, Jaguars
Williamson has failed fantasy owners over the years, but the Jags are hurting at WR and he has had a great preseason. He’s a significant deep threat, so if he can continue to hold onto the ball, there’s a very good chance that he’ll be the Jags’ Week 1 starter opposite Torry Holt (who is struggling to gain separation). Right now, he leads the league in preseason receiving yards, and that’s a good sign.

10. Michael Bush, RB, Raiders
Bush is pushing Justin Fargas, but it’s not clear how his role would relate to Darren McFadden, who is the Raiders’ true RB1. Oakland will likely use McFadden like Reggie Bush, which means that Michael Bush could play the Deuce McAllister/Pierre Thomas role and get most of the work between the tackles. The only problem is that the Raiders’ offense is not nearly as productive as the Saints’, so Bush’s goal line opportunities will be limited. Still, if he’s the top guy behind McFadden, and McFadden goes down…well, you can do the math.

I'm playing in nine or ten leagues this year, and one thing I'm noticing as I get deeper and deeper into my drafts is that Marshawn Lynch is consistently undervalued this preseason.

Here's what I wrote as part of our fantasy preview:

Marshawn Lynch, Bills (4.08)
Lynch’s ADP is depressed because he’s going to miss the first three games due to suspension. Last year, we saw two players – Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall – tear it up after returning from suspension, and they were both big values on draft day. If you can combine Lynch in the late 3rd or early 4th and his backup, Fred Jackson, in the 8th or 9th, you’re essentially getting a borderline first round RB, which will pay dividends throughout the season. Plus, the Terrell Owens acquisition should take the pressure off the running game and open things up a little for Lynch and Jackson, even though the loss of Jason Peters (one of the league’s best left tackles) may offset this advantage.

Then I had to choose amongst Lynch, Ryan Grant and Reggie Bush in Round 4 of my Industry Insiders Draft...

Of the three, Bush is the most productive on a per game basis in PPR leagues, but he has missed 10 games over the past two seasons and just isn’t as dependable as the other two guys. I ran the numbers for Grant and Lynch, and Grant has averaged 14.1 ppg since he became the starter in Green Bay while Lynch has averaged 15.1 ppg in his two seasons in the league. Lynch is more involved in the Buffalo passing game, so that helps his overall numbers.

Then there’s the whole three-game suspension thingy, which is the reason that Lynch is available in the fourth round in the first place. Otherwise, he’d likely be a late first round or early second round pick. Last year, we saw two players - Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall - see their stock fall in the preseason due to suspension and proceed to light it up once they returned. Marshall finished as WR4 after missing the first game and Smith finished as WR10 after missing the first two.

I took a closer look at the schedules of Grant and Lynch and found that Lynch had a distinct advantage over the last 13 games. In fact, Lynch projects to face the second easiest schedule of any running back over that span. This, combined with Grant’s struggles last season and Lynch’s overall superior productivity, convinced me to draft the Buffalo RB at 4.05. Sure, I’ll have to burn a middle round pick on Lynch’s backup (Fred Jackson), but I think it’s worth it to lock up Lynch after his suspension is over.

I also won Lynch in a slow auction league, where he went for a very reasonable price of $30 when guys like Grant, Bush and Darren McFadden all went for $49+. Bush and McFadden are injury concerns and Lynch has produced more consistently than Grant has (though I do like these other players).

Obviously, the three-game suspension is a little off putting to some owners, but they're being shortsighted. Sure, he's going to miss a quarter of the fantasy regular season and a fifth of the full fantasy season, but for the price of a 4th or 5th rounder, you can get a RB that will produce at a late-first/early-second round level. The first three weeks of the year might be a little precarious, but it's before the byes start, so if owners have an option of a flex position or if they manage to draft Jackson, then they should be just fine.

There was some talk about Fred Jackson possibly stealing the job during the suspension, but Lynch took the majority of first team snaps throughout the preseason, so I don't think there's much to worry about on that front.

Once Lynch returns to face a very easy schedule, his owners will have a distinct advantage for the rest of the season and into the playoffs.

Looking at the Brandon Marshall situation with a purely fantasy eye, his suspension for the remainder of the preseason may create an environment where the troublesome wide receiver becomes a value on draft day.

After news of the suspension broke, a fellow owner in my slow auction league nominated him for bidding. I won him for $21, which was 5% of my total payroll (or about two-thirds his pre-suspension value). Here's what Joe Bryant (of Footballguys.com) had to say in a recent email:

Marshall will probably fall out of the top 100 picks in most drafts now. We would still take a chance on him around the 9th/10th round range in PPR leagues, because if this really goes completely sour, you can cut him for the WW flavor of the week, but if he straightens out, he'll be the rare top 20 WR you can get out of the top 100.

But this hasn't been the case, at least not yet. According to Antsports, in 12-team redraft leagues from 8/29-8/31, his ADP dropped from the late third into the early fifth. I had a keeper league that drafted this Sunday, and Marshall went in the middle of the sixth. (I realize that in a keeper league, his value will be somewhat higher because of his long-term value in the league.)

Other owners are going to be scared off by Marshall's ridiculously bad offseason. But the bottom line is that he's in a contract year, and if he wants to score a big payday, he's going to need to show up and act like a professional. At least this what I hope his agent is telling him on a daily basis during his suspension.

There are some indications that the Broncos are willing to work with Marshall this year. The suspension itself was only for the preseason, and if he behaves, he could very well be on the field for the team's opener. This is a clear sign that the Broncos value Marshall and what he can do for the team. They are not yet at the point where he's too much of a headache to deal with. Moreover, Josh McDaniels spoke about the situation at the most recent preseason game and he seemed optimistic about the WR's short-term future.

The driving force behind Marshall's future is Marshall himself. If he wants a fat contract, he needs to shut his mouth and play out his current deal. If he performs up to his usual standard, some team will forget about all of this and will give him the kind of contract he's looking for. From a fantasy point of view, this makes Marshall a risk, but a worthwhile risk in the middle rounds. If he realizes his situation, swallows his pride, and acts like a professional, he can get the kind of money he wants. This is why I'm optimistic about Brandon Marshall in 2009.

Given what we know right now, his ADP of 5.05 sounds about right. I'd take him after Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson and Vincent Jackson, but before Santonio Holmes, Antonio Bryant and Santana Moss.

Of course, he could completely flake out and get suspended for the entire season, a la Keyshawn Johnson.

Don't you love fantasy football?

Snake drafts are simple, easy to understand and organized.

Auctions are not.

They are haphazard and chaotic, and that’s part of what makes them so much fun.

Want the consensus top fantasy player in the league? He’s yours…if you’re willing to pay. You’re not beholden to a certain draft slot or to the whim of the guy picking in front of you. It’s your team and the decisions you make will completely shape your roster, for good or for bad.

Auctions come in all shapes and sizes, but for the past couple of seasons I’ve played in one where each team has a $400 salary cap and a roster of 20-22 players. It’s a slow online auction. Every day, each owner is responsible for nominating one player along with an opening bid, which can’t be seen by the other owners in the league. Bidding is open for 24 hours, unless the high bidder changes, in which case the clock is reset. At any particular time there might be 20 or 30 players up for bidding, but the slow format gives owners plenty of time to consider their options.

I generally budget 85-90% of my total cap for my starters. This way, I have already accounted for some extra funds to acquire some cheap backups in the later part of the auction. This might seem like a lot to spend on your starters, but these are the guys that are playing week in and week out, so it’s smart to put the vast majority of your resources to that end.

When approaching an auction there are two prevailing strategies to consider when bidding on players:

SMASH AND DASH

In most auctions, owners are amped up and ready to spend. Usually, big-name players are nominated first, so there is a sense of urgency when there are 12 or 15 of the game’s top 20 or 30 players on the board. The bids come fast and furious and prices are usually inflated. How do you know if they’re inflated? There are a number of auction spreadsheets out there, but I like to use the Value Based Drafting spreadsheet that Footballguys.com distributes.

A membership to the site is worth it, but if you don’t want to join, don’t worry, the first few updates are free. You can then customize the Excel spreadsheet to your league’s specifications and modify the player projections as you see fit. The spreadsheet will generate a cheatsheet that will have a list of all the players by position and by price. This will be your guide during the auction.

The “smash and dash” approach is to hit the auction hard in the first few days, acquiring 2-4 top players – 1st or 2nd rounders in a traditional draft format – spending anywhere from 50-80% of your total budget. While you need to trust your spreadsheet, don’t be afraid to pay a little more than MSRP to get a guy you want.

You would then look to round out your roster with cheaper players, hoping that your studs will stay healthy and carry you to the playoffs. Depending on how far you pushed your payroll, this may be easier said than done. Owners who saved their money for the middle of the auction are going to be able to outbid you at will, so you have to hope that those owners aren’t interested in the cheaper players that you want. If you’re patient, you can usually find good deals in the later stages of the draft.

This is a high risk, high reward strategy.

SIT AND WAIT

Another approach is to sit on the sidelines while the other owners trip over themselves overbidding on every player on the board. At some point, they’ll all run out of money having overspent on their “studs” and won’t have any money left to fill out the rest of their roster with anything but scrubs.

This is the point in the auction – usually when 50% of the total league payroll has been allocated – that the proverbial worm turns. This is when you step in with your wad of cash and pounce on value when it reveals itself. It’s not uncommon for good players (3rd-5th rounders) to go for 50% or less of their true value. The strategy here is to build a balanced squad made up of solid mid-round talent. This type of team will be better able to absorb an injury or two .

There are two drawbacks to this strategy: 1) fantasy champions usually have at least one or two studs and 2) it can be difficult to sit idly by at start of the auction as a series of very talented players come and go.

Both strategies, if followed to the letter, have significant drawbacks. This is why I advocate something of a hybrid approach, which I dubbed...

THE HYBRID APPROACH

This strategy requires the owner to play a little defense in addition to offense. The first thing I do is nominate a player that I don’t really want. I’ve never been a big fan of Randy Moss or Terrell Owens (I just don’t trust them to stay healthy or sane) so I love to throw out their names early on. This will usually cause a feeding frenzy and eat up some of the resources of the other owners in the league. I’ll usually cap my bid at 50-60% of the player’s value (according to my spreadsheet), so that no one gets a screaming deal (i.e. I will take Moss if it’s at a 50% discount).

Then, as the big-name players are nominated, I’ll bid them up to different levels depending on how strongly I feel about them...60-70% if I’m lukewarm...70-80% if I like them...80-85% if I really like them...90-100% if I love them.

Sometimes, I’ll end up with the high bid on 2-3 big name players early on. Don’t be afraid to spend a good chunk of your payroll on discounted studs. If you can get three first round or early second round players for 60-70% of your total payroll, you are in good shape. Just lay low for a while and let the owners sitting on the sideline play defense on the big-name players. Only enter the fray if there is a value player available that fits your budget.

If you don’t end up with any studs in the first third of the draft, don’t fret, there are bound to be several first and second round talents still available, along with plenty of players who are going in the middle rounds of snake drafts. Keep track of who has and who hasn’t been nominated and only bid with a sense of urgency if the last stud RB or WR becomes available. Chances are, you’ll be able to get him at a price that wasn’t available earlier in the auction.

CONCLUSION

As you can see, auction strategy is something of a nebulous topic. It depends largely on what kind of auction you’re in. If you’re surrounded by aggressive spenders, then it pays to bide your time. If you’re surrounded by bargain hunters, then it is wise to land a few studs early, provided you can get them at a discount. You should know what kind of auction you’re in by the time the first few players fall off the board. Keep a running total of what players are going for and divide that by their total value. If the number is greater than 1.1, you're in an aggressive league (or at least there are a few aggressive owners). If it's less than 0.9, you're probably in a passive league, so look for some discounted studs early on. Just pay attention, spend wisely, and pounce when the time is right. This might be at the start, in the middle, or at the end. It all depends.

I've only participated in three or four auction drafts in my career, so I'm still learning. If you have any tips or suggestions for our readers, please feel free to share them below.

Around this time last year, I compiled a top 10 list of Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates and ranked Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan No. 1. He went on to throw for 3,440 yards, 16 touchdowns and led Atlanta to a remarkable playoff appearance, all while making me look like some kind of OROY-predicting genius.

Of course, I also listed Titans running back Chris Johnson at No. 7 behind less-productive names like Darren McFadden (No. 4), Kevin Smith (No. 5) and Rashard Mendenhall (No. 6), hence making me look like some kind of OROY-predicting moron.

To see my top 10 ranking from last year, click here. And for my top 10 ranking of the offensive rookie of the year candidates for this season, see below.

1. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos
While the knee injury he suffered in Denver’s preseason opener is a concern, Moreno is expected to be ready for Week 1 and will be given every opportunity to shine in ’09. Granted, he’s stuck in a crowded backfield and could be eased into the season after hurting his knee, but he has the potential to be an every-down back at some point this year. He was the most complete back in April’s draft, has outstanding vision and should get plenty of opportunities to make plays in Josh McDaniels’ shotgun-heavy offense. He’ll also benefit from running behind the Broncos’ stellar O-line. Expecting him to put up rushing numbers similar to those of Chris Johnson (1,228 rushing yards) last year might be a little ambitious. But if Moreno stays healthy, a 400-plus yard receiving season in McDaniels’ system is certainly doable.

2. Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings
The Vikings’ coaching staff has raved about Harvin’s potential so much so that it’s hard not to buy into the hype. Receivers usually don’t make much of an impact until their second or third years, but it’s hard to ignore all of the glowing reports coming out of Vikings’ camp these days. Harvin is quick off the ball, can stretch a defense will his speed and is dangerous in the open field. Head coach Brad Childress has reportedly been working on finding ways to get Harvin the ball in his offense and Minnesota seemingly wants to give the rookie wideout as many opportunities as possible. That said, he’s on the smaller side and was held out of the Vikings’ preseason opener due to a shoulder injury (which is not considered to be serious). Will durability be a concern? If not, he appears to be the popular choice to emerge as this year’s OROY.

3. Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets
We should know more about whether or not Sanchez will have the opportunity to start this season after the Jets take on the Ravens tonight in their second preseason game. But all indications are that he’s the favorite to beat out Kellen Clemens after his impressive preseason debut in which he completed 3-of-4 passes for 88 yards against the Rams. Granted, he’s reportedly struggled in scrimmages since that series against St. Louis, but has no less turned heads since the Jets drafted him with the fifth overall pick in April. There were concerns about whether or not he had enough collegiate experience to start as a rookie in the NFL, but he’s made strides as a passer all summer and has showed more arm strength and accuracy than Clemens. Considering the Jets have one of the better O-lines in the league and have surrounded him with quality backs, Sanchez could have a Matt Ryan-type rookie season. Then again, Ryan had Roddy White to throw to and while he has always been an underrated and highly productive receiver, nobody is going to confuse Jerricho Cotchery (the Jets’ No. 1 wideout) for White.

4. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles
I struggled on whether or not to list “Beanie” ahead of “Shady,” but I ultimately went with McCoy given that the Eagles have a better O-line and Wells can’t seem to stay healthy. McCoy will get plenty of opportunities to be a playmaker in Philadelphia’s offense and there’s always a chance that Brian Westbrook will miss time throughout the season. McCoy has tremendous playmaking ability, is shifty, and is gaining valuable experience with Westbrook sidelined with knee and ankle injuries. But what has impressed his coaches and teammates the most so far has been his toughness and blitz-pick up ability. One of the knocks on him coming out of PITT was that he might not be able to survive running in between the tackles in the NFL. But so far, he is dispelling that notion and has been awfully impressive.

5. Chris Wells, RB, Cardinals
“Beanie” is certainly behind the 8-ball compared to his fellow OROY candidates. He has been in and out of practice virtually all camp and continues to battle an ankle injury. That said, he first reported to camp in early August weighing 22 pounds lighter than his draft-day weight and when he’s healthy, he can be the complete package as a runner. Granted, he doesn’t have much experience playing on third down and therefore isn’t much of a pass-catching threat. But he’s a bulldozer with 4.5-speed and is a terrific athlete. If he can get healthy and unseat starter Tim Hightower, Wells has a chance to surprise and win this year's OROY.

6. Shonn Greene, RB, Jets
Greene’s situation in New York is kind of hard to figure out at this point, given the contract situations of Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. If the Jets wind up re-signing Washington, then Jones could be traded and thus, Greene’s roll will expand. But if the team hangs on to all three backs, then obviously Greene’s carries will be limited and he may only receive looks in short-yardage situations. Still, he has reportedly been impressive in camp and could emerge as the Jets’ goal line back at some point this season.

7. Donald Brown, RB, Colts
The 2008 Division-I rushing leader has a chance to become a weapon in the Colts’ passing attack this season. So far in preseason, he’s showed off his quickness as both a runner and receiver, and Indy will certainly find ways to get him on the field as a rookie. That said, he’s at a disadvantage playing in the same backfield as Joseph Addai, who will likely remain the Colts’ top short-yardage back. So unless Brown racks up a ton of yards and scores through the air, he probably won’t post OROY-worthy numbers. Although, if Addai suffers an injury, Brown will become the primary back and then the sky is the limit.

8. Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions
After going 5-of-13 for 34 yards and an interception against the Browns, there’s a good chance that Stafford will lose his starting job to Daunte Culpepper. But that doesn’t mean he can’t bounce back with a solid effort in Detroit’s next two preseason games and redeem himself. Stafford looked comfortable and poised in the pocket in the Lions’ preseason opener against the Falcons, completing 7-of-14 passes for 114 yards and one touchdown. Chances are that the Lions will probably take it slow with Stafford and even if he does get the opportunity to start, the Lions won’t be good enough for him to win OROY. Still, crazier things have happened, which is why I ultimately decided to rank this year’s top overall pick.

9. Pat White, RB/QB, Dolphins
White has a tremendous learning curve coming from a “college offense” at West Virginia. He doesn’t figure to get on the field much as a passer, although that’s not to say he won’t have the opportunity to put the ball in the air. The Dolphins are installing a “Pat Package” in which they will try and take advantage of White’s running and passing abilities. He’ll get some opportunities to make plays in the Wildcat formation, although it’s unclear at this point how many opportunities he’ll inevitably get. If Ronnie Brown is more productive in that role, than White’s chances to play will be limited. That said, Miami didn’t take him in the second round so that he could hold a clipboard.

10. Glen Coffee, RB, 49ers
It’s kind of hard not to rank Coffee on this list after he rushed for 67 yards on 14 carries in the Niners’ preseason opener and then followed up that performance with a 16-carry, 129-yard effort in San Fran’s second preseason game. Thus far, the hard-running Coffee has shown great speed, good vision and excellent pass-blocking abilities. The only problem is that he has Frank Gore ahead of him on the depth chart, which will likely derail his bid to win OROY. Still, Coffee has been impressive so far and is playing his way into getting opportunities come the regular season.

I've already mentioned the "Curse of 370," but Michael Turner is facing yet another challenge this season -- a much tougher schedule.

Here's a look at Turner's performance last year against good, mediocre and bad rush defenses:

- In three games against top 10 rush defenses (Chicago, Philly and Minnesota), Turner averaged 20.3 carries for 60.7 yards and 0.3 TD, which translates to 8.1 fantasy points.

- In seven games against teams ranked #11-#20 in rush defense (New Orleans x 2, Carolina x 2, Tampa Bay x 2, and San Diego), Turner averaged 23.4 carries for 92.0 yards and 1.0 TD, which equals 15.2 fantasy points.

- In six games agains teams ranked #21 to #32 in rush defense (Denver, St. Louis, Detroit, Kansas City, Green Bay and Oakland), Turner averaged 25.2 carries for 145.5 yards and 1.5 TD, which is 23.5 fantasy points.

In short, Turner killed poor rush defenses, did pretty well against mediocre defenses and struggled against good ones. That makes sense, right?

Heading into the 2009 season, Turner's schedule is shaping up to be tougher. He has six matchups with teams that finished in the top 10 last year, nine matchups with teams that finished #11-#20, and just one game against a team that finished #22-#32 (#22 Buffalo). On average, he's going from a schedule that has an average rank of 19.3 against the rush to one that has an average rank of 13.6. Not good.

So assuming that Turner has the same averages against each of the three groups, and last year's finish is a reasonable expectation for how these defenses will fair (a big assumption, I know), then Turner would project to 358 carries for 1338 yards and 13 TD. Those are still good numbers, but a far cry from the 1699 yards and 17 TD he posted last year.

Assuming he continues to be a non-factor in the Atlanta passing game (and with the addition of Tony Gonzalez, this is not a big assumption), and posts another six catches for 41 yards, then these rushing and receiving totals translate to 221 fantasy points (in a high performance PPR league). That would have made him RB15 last year.

I still like Turner -- hell, I have him in a keeper league, so I'm rooting for the guy -- but I just don't think he's first round material this season in PPR leagues.

I didn't put him on my list of late-round sleepers, but after reading this glowing piece on Rotoworld, maybe I should.

If Harvin's special talent is undeniable, then why is his ADP still hovering around the late eighth to early ninth round? A long-accepted maxim in fantasy football circles states that rookie wide receivers will always be over-valued on draft day because the production fails to match the hype. Randy Moss and Anquan Boldin serve to remind us that they're the exception, not the rule. Receivers take too long to get acclimated to their new offenses, coaches and quarterbacks don't quite trust them, and they simply don't touch the ball enough to accrue fantasy value.

But what if a rookie receiver came along who already had the trust of his coaches, immediately showed a high football IQ, was already incorporated as a major component of the offense, and was set to touch the ball 10-12 times per game? We're talking about not only a unique talent, but a receiver playing a newly invented position: the Percy Position.

Early indications are that the Vikings will use Harvin in much the same that Florida did. As soon as Harvin was drafted, head coach Brad Childress called offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and asked, "Hey, where's the list?" The list contained 20-to-30 plays – including 10-to-15 new plays – specifically designed to get the ball in Harvin's hands in space. As the Vikings installed the Percy Plays during OTAs, Harvin stole the show. "I think the first thing I thought about was really the same feelings the first time we handed Adrian Peterson the ball," Childress said. "When you see it with your own eyes … the thing that came to mind right away was, Wow."

If he does average 10-12 touches a game, he's going to be fantasy starter worthy. Figure six carries at about five yards a carry and four catches at about 8-10 yards per catch, and Harvin has about 62-70 total yards (6.2-7.0 points), four catches (4.0 points) and maybe a TD. Other than Adrian Peterson, the Vikings don't have too many playmakers on offense, so it's reasonable to think that Childress will get Harvin the ball early and often. This might be a case where it's okay to draft a rookie WR in the middle rounds.

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

In the world of fantasy football, the WR position is by nature in constant flux. Every NFL team has two starters, and the potent offenses are even capable of giving a third WR some fantasy value. This means that there are 80+ wideouts that will get consistent playing time on a weekly basis, and that provides plenty of opportunity for surprise breakout stars. Compare this to the RB position, where it usually takes an injury for a lesser-known back to get a shot. Last year, Eddie Royal, Lance Moore, Kevin Walter, Isaac Bruce, DeSean Jackson and Steve Breaston all finished in the top 30 in PPR leagues, and 2009 should have its fair share of surprises.

I listed my mid-round value WRs as part of our positional preview, but here are my top 5 late-round gems (for PPR leagues), sorted by projected value in relation to price. I’ll also list several more to keep an eye on as your fantasy draft winds down. To be eligible, the wideout has to have an average draft position (ADP) in the double digits (i.e. he’s going in the 10th round or later).

And off we go…

1. Domenik Hixon, Giants (12.07)
With Plaxico Burress sitting in court, pondering his decision to stuff a gun in the waistband of his sweatpants, the Giants have a gaping hole at WR. Hixon hopes to fill it, and he’s already shown signs that he’s capable. Over the last six weeks, Hixon averaged 4.7-59-0.2. He’s just 24, possesses great speed and is entering his third season, which is a prime time for a WR to break out. Sure, the Giants’ decision to draft Hakeem Nicks is a little worrisome, but he’s been hobbled with a bad hamstring and has a long way to go to usurp Hixon, whom I’d start to think about in round 10.

2. Davone Bess, Dolphins (16.03)
As a rookie, Bess stepped in for the injured Greg Camarillo, and posted 5.8-61-0 – that’s a 92-catch pace – over the last six games. He only scored one TD all year, so obviously he’s better suited for a roster spot in a PPR league, but he’s tough, quick and has good hands. I like Ted Ginn as well, but Bess is a better value in the waning rounds, especially since he’s still in the starting lineup despite the fact that Camarillo is healthy again.

3. Chaz Schilens, Raiders (14.10)
It’s always dicey to count on an Oakland WR, but in the later rounds, Schilens is definitely worth a flier. The Raider beat writers say that he is the team’s clear #1 WR, and he has performed well in the preseason, building on his momentum from the last two games of last season (6 catches for 98 yards and two TD against the Texans and Bucs). Schilens could be primed for the rare (but not unheard of) second-year breakout. It certainly helps that JaMarcus Russell seems to be consistently looking his way.

4. Ted Ginn, Jr., Dolphins (10.10)
Ginn had a pretty nice sophomore campaign, catching 56 passes for 790 yards, but he wasn’t terribly consistent and had trouble finding the endzone (2 TD). Now he’s entering his third year and seems poised to increase his catch and yardage totals once again. All things considered, he was WR34 last year, so it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense that he’s being drafted WR41 this summer. He’s a nice pick in the 9th in PPR leagues.

5. Nate Washington, Titans (12.02)
I’ve been a long-time supporter of Justin Gage in recent years, but with the way the Titans are moving Washington around in the preseason, it appears that they plan to use him to create mismatches all over the field. He flashed big play potential while in Pittsburgh and now that he’s a starter, he should improve on the 40-631-3 that he posted as the Steelers’ WR3 last season. After all, the Titans didn’t sign him to a big contract just to use him as a decoy. It might not be a bad idea to grab both Washington and Gage in the late rounds. That way, fantasy owners would have a good chance at getting a productive WR once the pecking order shakes out a bit.

Here are several other late-round WRs to consider. They're listed in order of their Antsports ADP -- if you don't see an ADP, then they're not being drafted in the first 16 rounds.

Muhsin Muhammad, Panthers (12.08)
Barring an injury to Steve Smith, “Moose” doesn’t have a whole lot of upside, but the 36-year-old will post decent numbers in PPR leagues.

Josh Morgan, 49ers (12.10)
Someone has to catch the ball in San Francisco, and as long as Michael Crabtree holds out, Morgan seems to be the guy on the 49er roster with the most upside. He caught five passes for 105 yards and a TD over the last two games of 2008 and is currently starting opposite Isaac Bruce.

Steve Smith, Giants (12.11)
Smith is a possession receiver, but could hold some value in PPR leagues. He caught 57 passes last year and stands to improve on those numbers now that Plaxico Burress is gone.

Justin Gage, Titans (13.10)
Over a seven-game stretch late last season, Gage averaged 3.0-67-0.7, which is starter-caliber fantasy production. However, he has had trouble staying healthy and the addition of Nate Washington is likely to cut into his targets.

Chris Henry, Bengals (14.05)
Henry is reportedly a changed man and has drawn raves from QB Carson Palmer. Always a threat around the goal line, Henry is still the WR3 in Cincy with the addition of Laveranues Coles.

Kevin Curtis, Eagles (14.07)
Curtis is listed as Philly’s WR2, so he should be on the field a lot and if he’s open, McNabb will find him. He battled injuries last year, but still posted some decent per game numbers. There isn’t much upside here, but he’s should be a decent fill-in in PPR leagues.

Earl Bennett, Bears (14.07)
Bennett played with Jay Cutler at Vanderbilt and is being counted on as a starter in his second year. He reportedly has good hands and should get plenty of opportunity to shine in the Bears’ suspect receiving corps. Bennett has good upside for a guy going in the 14th round.

Laurent Robinson, Rams
The Rams traded for Robinson in the offseason and there is plenty of playing time available in St. Louis. Donnie Avery is out with an injury, and Robinson has played pretty well in the preseason, so he should be a starter come Week 1. The Rams will likely trail a lot this year so he should be able to post good numbers in garbage time.

Devin Thomas, Redskins
He faces a challenge from Malcom Kelly and Antwaan Randle El, but the coaching staff has been complimentary of Thomas all preseason and it looks like he’s going to start opposite Santana Moss. Thomas is a second-year guy who should improve greatly on his rookie numbers (15-120-0).

Nate Burleson, Seahawks
He’s back from ACL surgery and is looking explosive in training camp. He’s slated to start alongside T.J. Houshmandzadeh, so he should be a good WR5 or WR6 in the final rounds of fantasy drafts.

Demetrius Williams, Ravens
With Mark Clayton sidelined with a torn hamstring, the door is wide open for Williams. The question is – will he step through? The oft-injured wideout has shown big-play potential and the Ravens desperately need him to perform.

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

As more and more keeper leagues pop up, August has become the month where fantasy owners have to decide which players they will keep. Sometimes this is an easy decision, but at other times, it may seem impossible.

I’ve been in the same keeper league for almost 10 years. Every summer we can freeze four players (with no draft pick penalty) as well as a prospect, which is defined as a player entering his second or third year in the league who has not finished in the top 20 at his position in his career. To freeze a prospect, we have to give up a 4th round pick.

Some owners are too forward-looking with regard to keepers. This is a great trait to have in dynasty leagues, where you holdover your roster from year to year, but in a keeper league where you only carry 2-4 players, being too forward-looking is a handicap. There’s one owner in our league who is always a year or two too early on a player. He picks players that will eventually be stars, but they won’t be on his roster when stardom finally hits.

When deciding between two players, my first concern is how much each player will be able to help me this year. I am not interested in winning the championship in four or five years. I want to win it now. So if Player A is 29 years-old and holds second round value and Player B is 23 and holds fourth round value, I’m going with Player A. He should have 2-3 good years left and that’s about as far out as my window extends.

However, if the two players are within a round in terms of value, things can change. Take LaDainian Tomlinson and Chris Johnson or Steve Slaton. LT2 is still a top 10 RB, and if he bounces back this season, he has a good shot of finishing in the Top 5. But he’s on the wrong side of 30 and showed signs last season of wearing down. Johnson and Slaton are both 23, and both finished ahead of Tomlinson last season. Even though I give LT2 an edge this season, I’d rather keep Johnson or Slaton, because they project to be top 10 backs for the next five years. In this case, Tomlinson’s current (perceived) edge does not outweigh Johnson or Slaton’s long-term value.

Then there’s the case of Kevin Smith, who finished as RB17 last season and is being drafted RB18 this year. All else being equal, I’m going to hold onto Tomlinson, because his value for 2009 outweighs Smith’s long-term upside. Now if there’s a price, things can change. Say I have to give up a 1st round pick for Tomlinson, but only have to give up a 4th for Smith. In that case, I’d keep Smith (because he’s a good value in the 4th) and use my 1st round pick on another player.

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

When the topic of fantasy kickers come up, it makes us feel like Allen Iverson when someone asks him about practice: “Kickers? You want to talk about kickers?”

Still, championship-caliber fantasy teams usually have a good kicker, so it is important to stay awake in the final rounds of your fantasy draft to ensure that you get someone decent.

We generally approach the kicker position with the following strategy:

1. Pick players that kick for teams with a good offense.
Good offense means touchdowns, and with TDs come extra points. Players who kick a lot of extra points are generally more consistent week-to-week than kickers who get more of their scoring from field goals. It’s better to have someone who is going to score four XPs every week than it is to have a guy that may or may not get 2-3 field goals.

2. Pick players that kick in good weather (or indoors).
There are plenty of good players who kick in bad weather. It’s fine to draft Mason Crosby or Robbie Gould, but do you really want to run them out there in Week 16 when there are 30 mph crosswinds in Green Bay or Chicago? If you want to pick a kicker and pretty much forget about the position, grab a guy that plays in warm weather or, better yet, kicks indoors. If you do pick a bad weather kicker -- and we're going to recommend two good ones -- be prepared to make a change late in the season.

The top 10 offenses of 2008 belonged to the Saints, Broncos, Texans, Cardinals, Patriots, Falcons, Giants, Packers, Eagles and Panthers. Eight of those teams had kickers who finished in the top 13: Stephen Gostkowski, David Akers, John Carney, Jason Elam, Mason Crosby, Kris Brown, John Kasay and Matt Prater. The Saints had three kickers throughout the season and the Cardinals were in the bottom 10 in field goal attempts.

The other kickers in the top 13 – Rob Bironas (TEN), Rian Lindell (BUF), Matt Bryant (TB), Ryan Longwell (MIN) and Josh Brown (STL) – played for teams that fought through suspect play out of the quarterback position. These are teams that didn’t have a very dynamic offense, so they had trouble punching the ball into the endzone. Moreover, Tennessee and Minnesota were both in the top 7 in total rushing yards, while Buffalo and Tampa Bay were #14 and #15 in that category, respectively. These teams could move the ball, but they couldn’t finish off drives very well.

Keeping all of this in mind, here are a few guys that should have top 10 years but won’t cost you much on draft day. Savvy fantasy owners shouldn’t even think about the kicker position until the 15th round, so we’ll limit this list to guys that are going that late.

Rob Bironas (15.04)
Bironas has finished as PK2 the last two seasons, so there must be something about the Titans’ approach that lends itself to kicker scoring. We’ll chalk it up to a good defense and a strong running game.

Mason Crosby (15.06)
Crosby was the top overall kicker in 2007 and PK9 last season. The Packers figure to have a top 10 offense again in ’09, so Crosby should get plenty of opportunities. Though be warned, GB plays at Chicago, at Pittsburgh and hosts Seattle during the fantasy playoffs, so be prepared to pick up another kicker if the weather turns.

Garrett Hartley (16.11)
Fantasy owners are sleeping on Hartley. He didn’t start kicking until Week 10, and averaged 9.2 points over the last eight weeks. Those are PK4 numbers and the Saints figure to have a very good offense again this season. We're targeting him this year.
Update: Hartley has been suspended for four games and the Saints have signed John Carney. We're not targeting Hartley anymore. (Carney looks like a nice pick.)

Kris Brown (16.01)
Brown was PK10 in 2008 and PK8 in 2007. He kicks indoors and the Texans have a pretty good offense.

Robbie Gould (16.09)
Gould was PK1 in 2006, PK5 in 2007 and PK16 in 2008. With Jay Cutler under center, the Bears figure to have a much more potent offense in ’09, so Gould should get plenty of opportunities to score. Just like Crosby, Gould’s fantasy playoff schedule isn’t the best (vs. GB, @ BAL, vs. MIN) so be prepared to pick another kicker up down the stretch.

Here are our official kicker rankings, by tier:

1. Stephen Gostkowski

2. Nate Kaeding
3. Garrett Hartley
4. Rob Bironas
5. Mason Crosby
6. Robbie Gould
7. David Akers
8. Jason Elam
9. Kris Brown

10. Ryan Longwell
11. Lawrence Tynes
12. Nick Folk
13. John Kasay
14. Matt Bryant
15. Adam Vinatieri
16. Shayne Graham

17. Joe Nedney
18. Rian Lindell
19. Jeff Reed
20. Josh Brown
21. Matt Prater
22. Josh Scobee

23. Josh Brown
24. Jason Hanson
25. Phil Dawson
26. Shaun Suisham
27. Olindo Mare
28. Dan Carpenter

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

As more and more leagues have moved to a point per reception (PPR) format, the tight end position has become increasingly important in fantasy circles. This is compounded by the NFL’s movement towards the utilization of pass-catching tight ends (i.e. players who can block a little, but are primarily on the field for their pass-catching ability).

Sometimes people scoff when we recommend drafting the top TE in the third round, but savvy fantasy owners who follow the principles of Value Based Drafting know that the top TE often carries 2nd round value at a 3rd round (or even a 4th round) price. This is the definition of value, and if that player performs to expectations, his fantasy owner is going to have a significant weekly advantage at the TE position. This translates to wins.

One nice thing about drafting a TE in the early to middle rounds is that it’s not too hard to pick out the good ones. Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates have both finished in the top 4 in each of the last three seasons. Jason Witten finished as TE1 in ’07 and TE2 in ’08, and with Terrell Owens gone, Tony Romo should be looking his way even more this season. Barring injury, Witten, Gates and Gonzo are a good bet to finish in the top 5 in 2009.

But don’t fret if you miss out on one of the premier guys. There are several players who have emerged in recent years as very dependable options. Chris Cooley was TE5 in each of the last two seasons (and TE7 the year before), Owen Daniels is just 26 and has two top 7 finishes in the last two years, Dallas Clark finished as the TE6 in ’07 and TE3 in ’08, and should have a solid ’09 with the departure of Marvin Harrison. And, of course, you could always roll the dice on Kellen Winslow, who had a disappointing ’08 (TE17) after finishing in the top 4 the previous two seasons.

And then there are the young, upside guys – Greg Olsen, John Carlson, Zach Miller, Dustin Keller and Kevin Boss – who have shown flashes of fantasy stardom and are all in their early- to mid-twenties.

Since most tight ends hold more value than their respective average draft positions, it’s tough to say which players are a good value and which ones aren’t. Instead, we’re going to list a few TEs and discuss when each player becomes a nice value. This assumes a 12-team PPR league where a starting TE is required. If your league doesn’t award a point per reception or doesn’t require a TE, then the position is tremendously devalued. (In other words, wait a while before burning a pick on a tight end.)

Jason Witten in the late-3rd/4th
Witten was a little dinged up in the middle of last season, but he got off to a great start and finished strong for his owners. We like him ahead of Gates and Gonzo because injuries aren’t really a concern and he’s still playing in a great situation with Tony Romo (and without Terrell Owens).

Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez in the late-4th/5th
Gonzo is out of Kansas City and he joins the Falcons’ offense, which focuses on a great running game and controlling the ball. However, Atlanta doesn’t really have a great second option to Roddy White in the passing game and the Falcons may open up the playbook a bit more now that Matt Ryan has a year of experience under his belt. Meanwhile, Gates has added some muscle to his frame and reportedly looks more chiseled heading into 2009. He struggled with injuries last season, but hopefully those are behind him. Gates isn’t quite as consistent as Witten or Gonzo, but he has a shot to reclaim TE1 this season. We prefer Gates to Gonzo since he’s not joining a new offense.

Dallas Clark in the 6th
The 30-year-old Clark has a reputation for being injury prone, but he has played in 15 games in four of the last five seasons. He was TE3 last season, and with the departure of Marvin Harrison, he figures to get his share of the targets in 2009.

Chris Cooley or Owen Daniels in the 7th/8th
These two probably represent the last of the really solid picks at tight end. Cooley, while fairly unspectacular, has been as steady as they come, finishing TE7, TE5 and TE5 over the last three years. He may not outscore other TEs on a week-to-week basis, but you aren’t going to lose much ground either. The same goes for the 26-year-old Owen Daniels, who is part of an up-and-coming offense in Houston. He has improved his ranking in each of the last three years, and was a great value pick in 2008. The Texans always seem to be trailing, which gives Daniels’ numbers a boost as they try to play catch up.

Greg Olsen or Kellen Winslow in the 8th
Olsen scored 13.9 ppg over the last four weeks, and that’s a sign of things to come. He has the best hands of any of the Bears’ receivers and QB Jay Cutler wasn’t afraid to throw to his tight end when he was in Denver. Winslow is a little risky because of his injury history, but the Bucs don’t have a good WR2 to take the pressure off of Antonio Bryant, so Winslow will have to take over that role.

John Carlson or Zach Miller in the 9th or 10th
If you’re going with one of these two after loading up at RB, WR and QB, you’re rolling the dice that these youngsters can continue on their upward career path. If they do, they should crack the top 10. Both scored better than 10.0 ppg over the last eight games (a good sign), Carlson plays with a good QB, and Miller plays for the Raiders who have to throw a lot late in games.

Brent Celek, Vishante Shiancoe, Heath Miller or Kevin Boss in the 13th
With L.J. Smith long gone, the job is Celek’s and if he can build on his 5.5-catch, 45-yard and 1.0-TD average over the last four games, he should be in for a nice year. Shiancoe was TE8 last year, mostly due to a 7-catch, 136-yard, 2-TD performance against the Falcons in Week 16. He had some clunkers, but he should be solid in ’09. Miller isn’t going to set the world on fire, but he has averaged 48-540-5 over the last two years and that looks like a reasonable expectation for this season. Boss is the upside guy in this group. With Plaxico Burress gone and the Giants’ WRs in flux, Boss has a chance to see a big increase in targets.

Bo Scaife in the 14th
Why is last year’s TE11 going in the 15th round? We’re not sure, though Jared Cook is a threat and Alge Crumpler is still there. But Bo Scaife is like a dive bar with some seriously sketchy clientele. It’s not a place you plan on going when you begin your evening; it’s where you end up at midnight. Scaife makes a solid backup or possibly spot-starter waiver wire fodder when a bigger name TD goes down.

Here are our official TE rankings, broken into tiers:

1. Jason Witten
2. Antonio Gates
3. Tony Gonzalez

4. Dallas Clark
5. Chris Cooley
6. Owen Daniels

7. Greg Olsen
8. Kellen Winslow

9. Zach Miller
10. John Carlson

11. Kevin Boss
12. Dustin Keller
13. Brent Celek
14. Visanthe Shiancoe
15. Heath Miller
16. Jeremy Shockey

17. Vernon Davis
18. Bo Scaife
19. Tony Scheffler
20. Todd Heap

21. Martellus Bennett
22. Marcedes Lewis
23. Brandon Pettigrew
24. Jermichael Finley
25. Robert Royal
26. Anthony Fasano

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

Defenses are tough to predict year to year, so fantasy owners are generally better off using their middle round picks to build depth at the skill positions. An emerging strategy is to utilize a Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC) approach, which involves drafting two late-round defenses whose schedules combine well. The idea is to get top 5 or top 10 DT performance at a much cheaper price.

Last year, we provided three recommended DTBCs: 1) SEA/BUF, 2) BUF/NO and 3) BUF/GB.

Seahawks/Bills was our top recommendation, and while the combo didn’t set the world on fire, they performed well. Under a high performance scoring system, the duo combined for 132 fantasy points over the first 16 weeks, which outscored all but the top 6 defenses in 2008. However, when we account for the bye week fill in by adding the average points per game of DT13-DT32 (5.4 per game), DT7 (Minnesota) would have also outscored the Seahawks/Bills combination. Still, getting DT8 performance with two late round picks is nothing to sneeze at. The duo also performed well in Week 15 (9 points) and Week 16 (14 points), when it mattered most.

Our second recommendation (and also the Footballguys’ recommendation, one of the first sites – if not the first – to outline this approach) was the Bills/Saints. Unfortunately, this combo did not perform well, posting 112 points over 16 weeks, mostly due to the Saints' struggles. The duo would have finished the season as DT15, which is pretty bad considering that the Bills alone finished DT17.

Our final recommendation – Packers/Bills – posted 144 points, which would have been good for DT5 in 2008. This duo didn’t perform particularly well in the playoffs, scoring just 10 points over the last three games, but on the whole, this was a terrific DTBC last year.

Looking ahead to this season, Footballguys recommends a Cardinals/Packers combo, and while it certainly looks like a good one, we have another that we’d recommend first. FBG factors for home/away advantage/disadvantage, but they only go so far. Two years ago, we looked at home/away as it relates to DTBC, and found that middling defenses (ranked #6-#25) scored at a 31% better clip when playing at home. In the 2008 season, that number fell to 7%. This is a much smaller impact, but still significant.

Here’s our methodology:

1. Take FBG’s strength of schedule for DT9 through DT27.
We included the Bengals and Browns because our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter, is reasonably optimistic about the improvement those two defenses could show this year. We eliminated the top 8 defenses according to ADP – the Steelers, Ravens, Chargers, Bears, Jets, Giants, Vikings and Eagles – because they’re all going in the 12th round or earlier, and that’s just too soon to take a DT to be part of a committee.

2. Apply FBG’s defensive projections to SOS.
This yields a week-by-week projection for each defense.

3. Factor in home/away advantage/disadvantage.
Middling defenses play better at home. How much better? We don’t really know, but the number was 31% in 2007 and 7% in 2008, so we’re going with 7%. This will give a boost to DTBC combinations that have a majority of the games at home.

4. Run the numbers for the 171 combinations to find the top DTBC pairs.
Here the focus is not only which defenses have the best combined schedule, but also a real-world take on what kind of outlook the defenses in question have this season. For example, if the numbers show that a Team A/Team B combo is the best, but a Team A/Team C combo is comparable, and Team C has a better outlook for the season than Team B, we might recommend a Team A/Team C combo instead. That’s what we did last year (in recommending Seahawks/Bills instead of Saints/Bills since we were higher on the Seahawks than the Saints) and it worked out well.

So who came out on top?

Cowboys (DT12, 14.05) and Packers (DT13, 14.12)
The Cowboys were DT9 last year and have a similar schedule in 2009. They added defensive end Igor Olshansky and linebacker Keith Brooking in the offseason and used five of their first seven picks on the defensive side of the ball. Wade Phillips is a defensive-minded coach and always seems to get the most out of his guys. The Cowboys should be solid again this season.

Meanwhile, the Packers are switching from a 4-3 (and a rather pathetic 4-3 at that) to Dom Capers’ 3-4 scheme. The Packers were DT10 last year mostly because of their big play ability. (They scored 16+ points in four games.) They drafted B.J. Raji and Clay Matthews in the first round, and while Raji isn’t yet in camp, both players should have an impact this season. The key will be whether or not Aaron Kampman can adjust to OLB. They still have a strong secondary and a solid line, so if they can put together a pass rush and button up the run defense, they should be in for a strong year. It helps that they have a much easier schedule in 2009.

The Packers are the key to DTBC this season, as they are a part of 11 of the top 13 combinations. They combine well with the Jaguars, Raiders, Panthers, Bucs, Titans, Seahawks, Cardinals, Patriots, Dolphins and Redskins, so there are other options if you miss out on the Cowboys.

The Titans and Pats may already be gone, but Stalter is high on the Seahawks (undrafted), Dolphins (16.05) and Redskins (15.09) as defensive units that could take a big leap forward this season, and none of those teams will cost you much on draft day. He also thinks the Cards (14.05) will be a little better. FBG’s top recommendation (GB/ARI) came in 9th (150.4 fp) when we ran our numbers.

The other teams that combine well with the Cowboys are the Patriots, Bucs, Cardinals, Seahawks and the Titans. If you miss out on the Packers but land the Cowboys, the Cards, Seahawks and Bucs may be available in rounds 14-16. Stalter isn't particularly high on the Bucs, who lost defensive genius Monte Kiffin.

The following table shows which weeks you should start which teams. Teams with an asterisk project to outscore the other team in the combo by less than a point, so as the season wears on, and it becomes clear that the other team is playing better defense and/or has a better matchup, you may want to call an audible and start them instead.

Finally, for those that aren’t comfortable with going with a DTBC – maybe your league has a small roster size and carrying two defenses for the entire year would be difficult – here are our official DT rankings, broken into tiers:

1. Baltimore
2. Pittsburgh
3. Philadelphia
4. San Diego
5. Chicago

6. Minnesota
7. Green Bay
8. Tennessee
9. New York Jets
10. New England
11. Dallas
12. New York Giants

13. Tampa Bay
14. Seattle
15. Arizona
16. Miami
17. Washington
18. Indianapolis

19. Buffalo
20. Jacksonville
21. Carolina
22. Oakland
23. Cleveland
24. Houston
25. Cincinnati
26. Atlanta
27. New Orleans

28. San Francisco
29. Denver
30. St. Louis
31. Detroit
32. Kansas City

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

As more and more leagues have tweaked their rules to try to even out the importance of other positions with respect to running backs, wide receivers have become increasingly valuable in the last few years. In leagues that award one point per reception, it’s a completely legitimate strategy to draft a WR in the back half of the first round. In fact, after the top five or six PPR backs – Maurice Jones-Drew, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Matt Forte, LaDainian Tomlinson and Frank Gore – are off the board, we wouldn’t snicker at someone who decided to pull the trigger on Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson instead of going choosing a player from the second tier of RBs. (If you’re wondering about Michael Turner, we love the guy, but he isn’t going to catch any passes and it doesn’t look like he’ll approach 376 carries again this season.)

Wide receivers are a little dicey because of the inconsistency that is intrinsic to the position. WRs have to depend on plays being called for them and on their QB to deliver the ball. There’s a better chance that a top RB will get his 20 touches (handoffs, dump offs) than there is that a top WR will get his 7-8 catches. As an example, last year’s top RB, Matt Forte, only had one game where he scored fewer than 14 fantasy points, and that was in Week 17, when it didn’t really matter. Conversely, the top WR, Andre Johnson, had four games where he scored fewer than 10 fantasy points (including Week 16, when it really mattered).

This year there appear to be a group of 12 stud fantasy wideouts: Fitzgerald, A. Johnson, Steve Smith, Calvin Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Anquan Boldin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, Dwayne Bowe and Marques Colston. These are proven players that are in stable situations, or saw their situations improve over the summer (i.e. Matt Cassel in for Tyler Thigpen is an upgrade for Bowe). Anyone not on this list changed teams (T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Laveranues Coles), had a downgrade at QB (Brandon Marshall, Jerricho Cotchery), has an attitude problem (Braylon Edwards, Chad Ocho Cinco), or some combination of all three (Terrell Owens).

This, coupled with the relative depth at the RB position – there are a number of backs going in rounds 3-5 that are good bets to crack the top 20 or top 15 – makes this a year when drafting a WR or two in the first three rounds a pretty compelling strategy. Would it be better to have Steve Slaton, Brian Westbrook and Terrell Owens or Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne and Ronnie Brown? We’d feel better about that second group.

Regardless, it’s always good to have a few guys targeted in those middle rounds (5-9) so that you can build depth and maybe even find a guy that develops into a starter-caliber WR. There is a tendency now to always look young at wideout, and this is causing some proven veterans to slip further than they should.

Any ADP data you see is from Antsports (from mock drafts completed between 7/21 and 8/11), and it assumes a 12-team league with a High Performance scoring system, which includes 6 points per receiving TD and one point per reception. Wide receivers will be more important in PPR leagues and in leagues that have a flex position instead of a second RB position. For the purposes of these rankings, we’re assuming that the starting requirements are as follows: 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 flex (RB/WR), 1 TE, 1 PK and 1 DT.

DeSean Jackson, Eagles (5.11)
It’s rare that a rookie WR stands out, but in his first season, DeSean Jackson caught 62 passes for 912 yards and two TD. He burst onto the scene, averaging 5.5 receptions for 82 yards and 0.3 TD in his first four games, but struggled a bit down the stretch, averaging just 2.3 catches for 34 yards and zero TD in the last four games. Some argued that he had hit the rookie wall, but Jackson bounced back in the playoffs, posting 10 catches for 173 yards and a TD in the Eagles’ postseason matchups against the Giants and Cardinals. He was WR26 last year, so it’s a little perplexing that he’s going just a bit before that in recent mock drafts. His detractors argue that aside from a couple of seasons with Terrell Owens, Donovan McNabb spreads the ball around, but other than Owens, when has McNabb had someone of Jackson’s talent to throw to?

Santana Moss, Redskins (7.01)
Moss finished the season as WR14, so it’s a little strange to see him going in the mid-20’s in recent mocks. He is a tough guy to get a handle on, as injuries have limited his production in certain seasons. Even though he’s on the wrong side of 30, the Redskins’ offense is staying pretty much the same. So barring injury, there’s no reason to believe that he won’t finish in the top 20 again in 2009. This makes him a fine value in the late 6th or early 7th.

Jerricho Cotchery, Jets (7.02)
Cotchery seems to make our value list every year, but 2008 was the first year in which he regressed. Laveranues Coles is gone, which could be both a positive and a negative for Cotchery. On one hand, he’s going to be “The Guy” at WR, but on the other, he won’t have Coles to take away some of the defensive focus. He may have a rookie QB throwing to him, so Cotchery’s upside is dependent on how quickly Mark Sanchez can progress (though as camp opens, Kellen Clemens is QB1). The Jets figure to struggle, so Cotchery may be able to rack up the catches and yards in garbage time.

Donnie Avery, Rams (7.06)
Avery had an up and down rookie season, finishing with 53 receptions for 674 yards and three TD. But Torry Holt is now in Jacksonville, so WR1 duties now fall to the sophomore. The entire Rams offense struggled last season, so the team brought in a new offensive coordinator (Pat Shurmur, former Eagles’ QB coach) to implement the West Coast Offense. Steven Jackson will be the focus, but Avery should be top target in the passing game. He may miss the first part of a season due to injury, so his ADP will probably slip into the 8th or even 9th over the next couple of weeks.

Torry Holt, Jaguars (7.12)
Normally, we’d shy away from WRs that are changing teams, but prior to last season, Holt was a perennial top 10 player and he joins an offense that looks to be more effective than the one he played in last season. He said that his knee wasn’t a problem last year and that he struggled because the whole Rams’ offense struggled. If all of this is true, and the 33-year-old Holt still has some gas left in the tank, he could be in line for a nice WR2/WR3-type fantasy season in 2009.

Hines Ward, Steelers (7.10)
Let’s see. Ward was WR15 in a season when the Steelers’ passing game struggled and the team just gave him a four-year extension. So why is he going in the early 30’s in mock drafts? He isn’t flashy, and he isn’t going to explode for 1600 receiving yards. But assuming he stays healthy, Ward should be able to take advantage of an easy schedule and post 70+ receptions, 900+ yards and 6-8 TD. That would be a nice haul for a guy that’s currently going in the 7th or 8th round.

Here are our official WR rankings, broken into tiers:

1. Larry Fitzgerald
2. Andre Johnson

3. Reggie Wayne
4. Randy Moss
5. Calvin Johnson

6. Steve Smith (CAR)
7. Roddy White
8. Greg Jennings
9. Anquan Boldin
10. Dwayne Bowe
11. Wes Welker
12. Marques Colston

13. Terrell Owens
14. Brandon Marshall
15. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
16. Chad Ochocinco

17. DeSean Jackson
18. Braylon Edwards
19. Santana Moss
20. Eddie Royal
21. Jerricho Cotchery

22. Anthony Gonzalez
23. Santonio Holmes
24. Hines Ward
25. Vincent Jackson
26. Antonio Bryant
27. Roy Williams
28. Torry Holt

29. Donnie Avery
30. Bernard Berrian
31. Donald Driver
32. Lance Moore
33. Laveranues Coles
34. Lee Evans

35. Domenik Hixon
36. Devin Hester
37. Ted Ginn
38. Steve Breaston
39. Kevin Walter
40. Josh Morgan
41. Michael Crabtree
42. Chris Henry
43. Justin Gage
44. Nate Burleson
45. Steve Smith (NYG)
46. Kevin Curtis
47. Earl Bennett
48. Chaz Schiliens
49. Derrick Mason

50. Davone Bess
51. Michael Jenkins
52. Nate Washington
53. Mike Walker
54. Devin Thomas
55. Mike Bradley
56. Joey Galloway
57. Jeremy Maclin
58. Sidney Rice
59. Hakeem Nicks
60. Isaac Bruce

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

Ah, the good ol’ running back…they’re the backbone of every good fantasy football squad…most of the time.

Over the past few years, many leagues have tried to diminish the importance of the running back position. If your league only requires one starting RB (and makes the other a flex position), then RBs aren’t quite as important as they are in leagues that require two starting backs. If your league awards a point per reception, the importance of wide receivers and tight ends is increased, while the talent pool at RB is expanded to include players that catch a lot of passes out of the backfield. For example, in a non-PPR league, Reggie Bush is just a mediocre starting back. In a PPR league, he is fantasy gold. (Assuming he’s healthy, of course.)

A typical first round will include 10 or 11 running backs with a quarterback or a wide receiver sneaking in late to break up the streak. With the trend of taking the onus away from the RB position, there has been a small, but growing movement towards drafting a WR late in the first round. The theory goes that the RBs available that late (and early in the second round) aren’t all that much better that those that are available in the late third or early fourth. So instead of following the herd, why not draft a WR like Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson that will give you an advantage at another position? After all, in PPR leagues, Fitz and AJ might very well be expected to score more points than Adrian Peterson.

This year, for owners stuck with a late pick in the first round, this strategy looks solid, but it should (probably) only be utilized in those leagues that have a flex position instead of a RB2 or those leagues that award one point per reception. Instead of drafting Steve Slaton or Chris Johnson, go with Fitz or AJ. Guys like Ronnie Brown, Darren McFadden, Kevin Smith, Pierre Thomas, Ryan Grant, Derrick Ward, Knowshon Moreno and Marshawn Lynch may be available at the 3/4 turn – would anyone be shocked if one or more of these players outperformed Slaton or Johnson? And if you’re in a league that features both a flex position and one point per reception, don’t be afraid to go WR/WR with your first two picks. Yes, you’ll really be zagging when everyone else is zigging, but you really only need to find one good running back to start with your next several picks and you’ll already have a huge advantage at WR1 and WR2.

But if you’re in a non-PPR league with two starting RBs, then it’s usually wise to go RB/RB with your first two picks. Fitz or AJ would be tempting early in the second round, along with Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss, Steve Smith and Calvin Johnson a little later on, but by the time the 3/4 turn rolls around, there isn’t going to be much left at RB.

Still, with all of those aforementioned backs, a few are bound to be available. So let’s focus on a few players that should be available in rounds 3-7 and try to identify the best values of the early-middle rounds. We’ll also provide rankings for the entire RB position, broken into tiers.

Any ADP data you see is from Antsports (from mock drafts completed between 7/19 to 8/9), and it assumes a 12-team league with a High Performance scoring system, which includes 6 points per rush TD and one point per reception. Running backs will be more important in leagues with two starting slots or in leagues that don’t give a point per possession. For the purposes of these rankings, we’re assuming that the starting requirements are as follows: 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 flex (RB/WR), 1 TE, 1 PK and 1 DT.

Knowshon Moreno, Broncos (4.08)
The Broncos used a first round pick (12th overall) on the talented Georgia back, and since RB is one of the easier positions for a NFL rookie to excel, his prospects for 2009 are bright. Peyton Hillis, Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan and Ryan Torain are also there, but Moreno is the most talented runner of the group. Moreover, in 2008, the Broncos were 2nd in the league in yards per carry with 4.8. This was with Michael Pittman, Peyton Hillis and Selvin Young rushing the football. Barring injury, Moreno should get starter’s carries and finish in the top 15 with an outside shot at the top 10, though a tough schedule puts something of a damper on his upside. He’s currently going in the 4th, but his ADP should be solidly in the 3rd assuming he gets into camp reasonably soon.

Marshawn Lynch, Bills (4.08)
Lynch’s ADP is depressed because he’s going to miss the first three games due to suspension. Last year, we saw two players – Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall – tear it up after returning from suspension, and they were both big values on draft day. If you can combine Lynch in the late 3rd or early 4th and his backup, Fred Jackson, in the 8th or 9th, you’re essentially getting a borderline first round RB, which will pay dividends throughout the season. Plus, the Terrell Owens acquisition should take the pressure off the running game and open things up a little for Lynch and Jackson, even though the loss of Jason Peters (one of the league’s best left tackles) may offset this advantage.

Derrick Ward, Bucs (5.01)
He’s by no means a sure thing, but Derrick Ward has a chance to be this year’s Michael Turner. He’s a veteran backup with a high ypc (5.1…Turner’s was 5.5 in San Diego) heading to a team in need of RB help who gave him starter’s money. At 28, Ward is a couple of years older than Turner was when he joined the Falcons and the Bucs also have Earnest Graham and Carnell Williams, but given his pass-catching ability (which is better than Turner’s), the multi-faceted Ward has a decent chance to be an every-down back in Tampa. Ward was excellent when given the opportunity to start in New York. He had 15+ carries eight times over the past two seasons, and averaged 104 rushing yards in those games. How many touches he gets will largely depend on Graham’s production and health (and whether or not the new coaching staff intends to use Graham as a fullback).

Pierre Thomas, Saints (3.11)
Through the first eight games, Thomas only received 37 touches (30 rushes, 7 catches) for 172 total yards and three TD. Once he swapped roles with Deuce McAllister in Week 10, he never looked back. In a seven-game stretch, he averaged 17.6 touches for 105 total yards and 1.3 TD per game. Granted, Reggie Bush missed four of those seven games, but the Saints want to limit his workload and it appears that Thomas is perfectly capable of turning in 2006-era McAllister stats (1255 total yards, 8 TD), which was the first year that Deuce and Bush shared the same backfield. The Saints’ offense is terrific and the offensive line is good, so there’s room for two productive backs in New Orleans.

Darren McFadden, Raiders (5.03)
We have more confidence in McFadden’s playmaking ability than we do in his durability. But if he can stay relatively healthy, he is undervalued at his current ADP, especially in PPR leagues. Simply stated, he’s the Raiders’ best offensive player, and while Justin Fargas and Michael Bush will do most of the work between the tackles, McFadden should get his share of touches since the organization wants him to be “The Guy.” The Raiders’ offensive line is average, but they’ll be playing from behind quite a bit, and McFadden will be a big part of the team’s passing attack.

Ryan Grant, Packers (4.01)
Grant got off to a slow start in 2008 after holding out for much of training camp. But by Week 5, he started to hit his stride, averaging 94 total yards and 0.4 TD over the last 12 games. Obviously, we’d like to see his TD/game back up around 1.0 like it was in the last half of the 2007 season, but Grant gets most of the carries in the Green Bay offense and that’s half the battle. For him to get back to his ’07 (top 10) production, the Packer offensive line has to do a better job of run blocking or the team has to get him more involved in the passing game. But given his ADP, Grant would be doing well to finish in the 12-15 range, which is definitely doable.

Ray Rice, Ravens (7.02)
Rice has reportedly increased his strength by spending a lot of time in the weight room this summer, and is a good bet to lead the Ravens RBs in touches. Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee are going to get some work, but if either goes down, Rice would be an excellent value in the 6th or 7th. It’s a little risky to pick a player that is part of a RBBC, but in the middle rounds, Rice has enough upside to make him worth it.

Cedric Benson, Bengals (7.02)
Yes…Cedric Benson. Granted, he’s not going to light it up, but as a RB3 or as a RB2 in a flex league, he’s a good value at his current ADP. Over the last eight games of the 2008 season, Benson averaged 13.2 fppg and was involved in the Cincy passing game. The Bengals lost T.J. Houshmandzadeh, which hurts the offense as a whole. But they replaced him with Laveranues Coles and they’ll get Carson Palmer back, which should offset Housh’s departure. Let’s not forget that Benson was once a first round pick, and didn’t suddenly forget how to run the football. Plus, he’s been all business since the Bengals signed him, and the coaching staff has been impressed with his work ethic and attitude. Rookie RB Bernard Scott is a threat, but he’s more of a big-play guy than an every-down back.

Here are our official RB rankings, by tier:

1. Maurice Jones-Drew
2. Adrian Peterson

3. Steven Jackson
4. LaDainian Tomlinson
5. Matt Forte
6. Frank Gore

7. Michael Turner
8. Steve Slaton
9. Chris Johnson
10. Brian Westbrook
11. Clinton Portis

12. Ronnie Brown
13. Marion Barber
14. DeAngelo Williams
15. Brandon Jacobs

16. Ryan Grant
17. Reggie Bush
18. Pierre Thomas
19. Kevin Smith
20. Knowshon Moreno
21. Marshawn Lynch

22. Darren McFadden
23. Derrick Ward
24. Larry Johnson
25. Ray Rice

26. Thomas Jones
27. Cedric Benson
28. Leon Washington
29. Julius Jones
30. Joseph Addai
31. Chris Wells
32. Willie Parker
33. Jamal Lewis

34. Donald Brown
35. Jonathan Stewart
36. Darren Sproles
37. Fred Jackson
38. Chester Taylor
39. Fred Taylor
40. Earnest Graham
41. LenDale White
42. Kevin Faulk
43. Rashard Mendenhall
44. Tim Hightower
45. Felix Jones
46. Ricky Williams
47. Jerome Harrison
48. Jerious Norwood
49. Kevin Jones
50. Jamaal Charles
51. Ahmad Bradshaw
52. Le’Ron McClain
53. Willis McGahee
54. LeSean McCoy
55. Shonn Greene
56. Bernard Scott
57. Brandon Jackson
58. LaMont Jordan
59. Laurence Maroney
60. Justin Fargas

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

Generally speaking, there are three schools of thought when drafting a quarterback. The first is to draft a stud in the first round or two and hope that he’s destined for a great year like the one Tom Brady had in 2007. The risk here is if this early pick doesn’t vastly outplay most of his peers, or if the owner isn’t able to unearth a good RB or WR in the middle rounds, the team is going to have trouble competing on a weekly basis.

The next theory is to go with running backs and/or wide receivers with the first two or three picks and then start looking for QB value in the next few rounds. This strategy could lead to an owner getting a player ranked in the top 5 in the third or fourth round, or a guy ranked 6-10 in the fifth or sixth round, or even later.

The final approach is to intentionally ignore the quarterback position in all of the early rounds, instead building up depth at running back and wide receiver (and maybe even tight end). Then in the eighth or ninth round, start to look at drafting a QB or three in the next few rounds with the hope of putting together a cohesive Quarterback By Committee (QBBC). (I recently posted a more detailed article that focuses solely on the QBBC.)

All of these strategies can work, but they each represent a different level of risk. For owners that always draft a QB early, they need that player to stay healthy and perform at a level commensurate with their draft position. The same goes for the owner who waits for value to emerge in rounds 3-6, though his QB has better odds of matching or outplaying his draft position. The owner that holds off until the middle rounds and then picks two or three guys that he expects to start throughout the season ultimately has quite a bit more room for error. If one player has a down year, the other (or other two) could very well pick up the slack.

Which strategy you choose may ultimately depend on your draft position. If there are five or six running backs you really like in the first round, but you have pick #12, you may elect to go with Drew Brees, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning instead of taking a RB leftover. Or if you have pick #4 and don’t deem any of those three worthy of your first rounder, but they’re all gone by 2.09, you’ll probably end up taking another RB or going with a WR.

The key is to look for value. That might mean waiting until Aaron Rodgers slips to you in the early 5th, or going with David Garrard and Jason Campbell in the late rounds as part of a QBBC, or even pulling the trigger on Peyton Manning in the early third, especially if there isn’t a RB or WR there that you like.

Below is a list of several guys that seem to represent good value at their current average draft positions (ADP). We’ll also provide rankings for the entire QB position, broken into tiers. Keep in mind that your scoring system will have a great impact on the value of the QB position.

Any ADP data you see is from Antsports (from mock drafts completed 7/15 to 8/5), and it assumes a 12-team league with a high performance scoring system, which includes 4 points per pass TD and one point per 20 yards passing. Quarterbacks will be more important in leagues with 6 points per pass TD or in leagues that don’t give a point per reception. Starting requirements are 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 flex (RB/WR), 1 TE, 1 PK and 1 DT.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers (4.08)
Statistically speaking, Rodgers was stellar in his first year under center for the Packers. He finished the season as QB2 and was remarkably consistent; he only had one game with fewer than 14.0 fantasy points. Nothing much has changed in the Packers offense – Greg Jennings re-signed – and while the defense should be a bit better, Green Bay’s games should be about as competitive as they were in 2008. The schedule looks a bit easier, so all signs point to another top 5 year for Rodgers. He’s a nice value at his current ADP or later.

Tony Romo, Cowboys (5.08)
From a fantasy perspective, the only thing Romo did wrong in 2008 was miss a few games in the middle of the season with an injury. When he played, he was one of the top QBs in the game, as evidenced by his 21.5 fppg average, which was third best in the league. Terrell Owens is gone, but Roy Williams has had an offseason to adjust to the Cowboys’ offense, and with top TE Jason Witten roaming the middle, Romo has no shortage of options. In order to avoid a late season swoon, the Cowboys have had him on a stricter workout regimen this summer. To top it all off, his schedule is a bit easier and he has a very nice matchup in Week 16. If he’s there in the 5th, he’s a nice pick.

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (7.07)
According to Footballguys (who know what they’re doing), Roethlisberger’s strength of schedule is almost 26% easier than last season. He finished as QB16 in ’08 and QB5 in ’07, so with a nice schedule, Big Ben’s upside is big. He has two great receivers in Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes, and a dependable TE in Heath Miller. The offensive line is still a concern, but the unit came together pretty well last season and they added Kraig Urbik in the second round. With a tough or mediocre schedule, Roethlisberger is probably more of a fringe starter, but with arguably the easiest schedule in the league, Big Ben looks like a very solid pick in the 6th or 7th round.

David Garrard, Jaguars (10.02)
His schedule is a bit tougher than last year, but for the money, Garrard has been one of the most steady and dependable QBs over the past two seasons. In 2008, he was QB9 with a 17.4 fppg average despite all sorts of injuries on the offensive line, which is healthy now and should be better with new additions Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton In 2007, he finished as QB16 (because he missed a few games), but had the 11th-best per game average. With Torry Holt on board, Garrard’s prospects are brighter, yet he’s still flying under the radar with an ADP in the 9th or 10th round. He’d make a stellar backup or a quality member of a two-man or three-man QBBC.

Joe Flacco, Ravens (11.02)
While Baltimore’s receiving corps is worrisome (especially if Derrick Mason stays retired), Flacco’s performance should benefit from two things: 1) having a year of experience under his belt and 2) having a much easier schedule. As a rookie, Flacco finished the season as QB19, so with some experience and several easy matchups, he’s a good bet to outplay his current draft position.

Shaun Hill / Alex Smith, 49ers (14.01 / ???)
If Hill does fend of Alex Smith’s bid for the starting job in San Francisco, he projects to be a great fantasy value. In 2008, he had an 18.3 fppg average in nine games, which was the 11th-best in the league. The 49ers should continue to play from behind, and along with the addition of Michael Crabtree and another easy schedule, Hill is a nice value in the late rounds. If Smith does indeed beat Hill out as QB1 for the 49ers, he’s worth a look too, though he hasn’t yet proven that he can perform in game situations.

Here are our official quarterback rankings:

1. Drew Brees
2. Tom Brady
3. Peyton Manning

4. Aaron Rodgers
5. Tony Romo

6. Philip Rivers
7. Donovan McNabb
8. Kurt Warner
9. Ben Roethlisberger
10. Jay Cutler
11. Carson Palmer

12. David Garrard
13. Matt Cassel
14. Matt Ryan
15. Matt Schaub
16. Eli Manning

17. Joe Flacco
18. Matt Hasselbeck
19. Trent Edwards
20. Jason Campbell
21. Kyle Orton
22. Shaun Hill / Alex Smith

23. Chad Pennington
24. Jake Delhomme
25. Marc Bulger
26. Matthew Stafford
27. JaMarcus Russell
28. Kerry Collins
29. Brady Quinn
30. Mark Sanchez

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

With the relative depth at the position, one approach to drafting a fantasy quarterback is to spend the first six or seven rounds drafting running backs, wide receivers and even a tight end. Then, in the eighth round or later, start to think about drafting a QB. Oftentimes, the players available in the 4th or 5th round won’t drastically outscore those QBs taken in the 8th or later.

Why is this? Well, one reason is that, once fantasy owners have a starting QB, they tend to draft for depth at running back and wide receiver instead of drafting a backup QB, whom they know probably won’t sniff their starting lineup, except as a bye week fill in.

Another reason is that most leagues require two starting running backs, which means 24 starting RBs in total (assuming a 12-team league). With more and more real NFL teams utilizing a RBBC, the position is much thinner than QB, which requires 12 fantasy starters of 32 real world starters.

Typically, this results in good depth at the QB position, where the expected production from QB10 isn’t all that different than QB20. This year the QB10 off the board is Matt Ryan (7.01) while the QB20 is Joe Flacco (11.02). To illustrate my point, in a “high performance” scoring system (4 pts per pass TD, 1 pt per 20 yards passing), Footballguys projects Ryan to score 255 fantasy points and Flacco to score 235. Are those 20 fantasy points worth burning a 7th round pick instead of an 11th? Over a 17-game schedule, that works out to less than 1.2 fantasy points per week.

In other words, it’s probably not going to cost you too many wins to go with Flacco instead of Ryan. In fact, you’ll probably be better off because the WR or RB you draft in the 7th round (Santana Moss?) is likely to vastly outperform his 11th-round counterpart (Michael Jenkins?). Footballguys projects Moss to outscore Jenkins by 75 points, a 4.4-point per week advantage. So by going with a Moss/Flacco combo instead of a Ryan/Jenkins combo, you’re gaining a net of 3.2 points per week.

Going one step further: why not draft two middle- to late-round quarterbacks whose schedules mesh well together to create a Quarterback By Committee (QBBC)? That way, you can load up on RB, WR and TE talent in the first seven or eight rounds knowing that you’ll still be able to get good QB play from a couple of later picks by taking advantage of the ebbs and flows of each player's schedule.

To that end, I took the QB strength of schedule data from Footballguys and calculated the per week projections (by using the aforementioned Footballguys projected stats) for every starting quarterback in the league.

Once that was done, I eliminated the 13 QBs with an average draft position (ADP) in the first seven rounds. This means that Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner, Aaron Rodgers, Phillip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger are not a part of this study.

This left 19 potential QBs – actually a few more when you consider those teams that haven’t settled on a starter yet. More on this later.

I then determined the best combined schedule (based on projected points scored) for each of the 171 two-QB combinations for a 16-game season (since most leagues don’t play in Week 17).

So who came out on top?

#1 COMBO

Matt Cassel and Shaun Hill (or Alex Smith)...280.7 fp
This combination is a little tough because Cassel is currently being drafted QB14 (8.08), so you’re probably going to have to use an 8th or 9th round pick on him. This means that you may have to pass on some value at RB, WR or even TE that slips into the 8th. On the flip side, Hill is going 14.01, so there’s no rush in grabbing him after you have Cassel.

I like this combo, but Cassel worries me a little bit because he’s joining a new offense that lost Tony Gonzalez over the summer. Dwyane Bowe is a very good target, but the Chiefs are lacking other proven playmakers in the passing game. On the other hand, Hill was very productive (18.3 ppg) in nine starts for the 49ers, though Mike Singletary hasn’t been very impressed with him in camp. (The same goes for Alex Smith, by the way.)

Another issue with this pair is that I assumed that Hill would start all 16 games and would score the points projected for Smith (or vice versa). After all, only one QB can score at a time, right?

To utilize this combo, start each guy in the following weeks:

Cassel / (Hill/Smith): (1), (2), (3), 4, (5), 6, (7), (8), (9), (10), (11), (12) 13, (14) 15, 16

Now there’s word that Smith may win the job, making this combo dicey at best for fantasy owners drafting soon. I’d recommend waiting until the 49er QB situation is settled before trying to pull the trigger on this QBBC (unless you have plenty of roster space and can grab both Hill and Smith very late).

KEY QUARTERBACKS

As I peruse the top 20 or so combinations, a few names keep popping up.

David Garrard (10.02)
I love Garrard as a value pick this year and he should be deadly in a QBBC format. The Jacksonville offensive line is healthy again and the addition of Torry Holt should give Garrard a good option in the passing game. He was QB9 last year, so I don’t see why he wouldn’t post similar numbers in 2009 with a better line and an improved receiving corps.
Combines well with: Trent Edwards, Matt Cassel, Eli Manning, Jason Campbell

Trent Edwards (10.02)
Edwards missed two games last year and had a few other clunkers, but he showed some promise (nine of 14 starts with 14+ fantasy points) and the arrival of Terrell Owens opposite Lee Evans gives him two legitimate threats to throw to.
Combines well with: David Garrard, Kyle Orton, Hill/Smith, Matt Cassel, Jason Campbell, Eli Manning

Eli Manning (9.08)
Losing Plaxico Burress definitely hurts, but Manning has a great offensive line and a group of young receivers that have a good chance of developing into a solid unit. Domenik Hixon played well in Burress’s place last season and Steve Smith is a good possession receiver. Throw in rookie Hakeem Nicks and young tight end Kevin Boss, and the Giants’ passing game should be all right without Plax.
Combines well with: Hill/Smith, David Garrard, Trent Edwards, Kyle Orton

Jason Campbell (12.10)
Campbell should benefit from some stability in terms of what kind of offense he’s trying to run. Santana Moss is a very good receiver and Chris Cooley is a top five tight end. Campbell rarely puts up a total stinker – he scored at least 10 points in 15 of 16 starts in 2008, and that makes him a safe start.
Combines well with: Hill/Smith, Trent Edwards, David Garrard

Kyle Orton (9.07)
“Neck Beard” is now the Broncos’ QB and he has a much better receiving corps (featuring Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal) than he had in Chicago. He will also be protected by one of the best offensive lines in football -- that won't hurt. Still, he’s joining a new team and Marshall is disgruntled, so he’s not a sure bet. Plus, there are other guys I’d rather have in the 9th.
Combines well with: Hill/Smith, Cassel, Edwards

Matt Cassel (8.08)
Combines well with: Hill/Smith, Kyle Orton, Trent Edwards, David Garrard, Joe Flacco, Matt Hasselbeck

Hill/Smith (14.01)
Combines well with: Matt Cassel, Kyle Orton, David Garrard, Eli Manning, Trent Edwards, Jason Campbell, Joe Flacco, Matt Hasselbeck

Most of these combos are projected to net 270+ points, so assuming a 15-point fill in during the bye week of a “stud” QB, a QBBC is projected to outscore all but the top six or seven QBs at a fraction of the price.

RECOMMENDED COMBOS

At this point, these are the QBBCs that I would target:

Cassel/Garrard
Garrard/Campbell
Garrard/Edwards
Garrard/Manning
Cassel/Edwards
Cassel/Orton
Cassel/Flacco

Once the Hill/Smith situation clears up, the winner would make a nice combo with Garrard, Cassel, Manning and Orton. The nice thing about QBBC is that given the depth at the position, if you miss out on Cassel in the 8th, there’s a good chance that Garrard will be there in the 9th, and there are several QBs who schedules mesh well with his. If he's gone, you could always grab Eli Manning (if available) and draft Shaun Hill and/or Alex Smith later on. The options are numerous, so pick two or three combinations that you like and give it a try.

There’s a secret that most good fantasy football owners don’t want you to know: Knowing how good (or how bad) an offensive line is could be the difference between you making the playoffs in your league, and winning the whole damn thing.

The bottom line is that the offensive line is the key to whether or not an offense is going to be successful in any given season. They’re the reason why guys like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brews are able to rack up terrific passing yards year in and year out, and why Brandon Jacobs, Michael Turner and Adrian Peterson continue to be solid fantasy backs. So knowing which O-lines are quality and which act like revolving doors to their team’s backfield will give you an edge on draft day.

Below is a ranking of the top five best lines, the top five most improved lines and the top five worst lines in the NFL heading into the ’09 season. Use these rankings as a tool to help you make better decisions on draft day and to also aid you when you’re stuck between a couple of players in later rounds.

Granted, we’re not advocating bumping certain players to the top of your pre-draft rankings just based on these rankings. The Lions offensive line is the worst in football, but if Kevin Smith is there for the taking in the 5th round, by all means jump on him. This article is purely meant to be a helpful aid; obviously you still have to use solid judgment on draft day.

The Five Best:

1. New England Patriots
One of the biggest reasons that a highly inexperienced quarterback like Matt Cassel can step in for a multiple Pro Bowl and Super Bowl winner like Tom Brady and still win 11 games is because New England’s offensive line is the best in the business. No O-line works better together than the unit that comprises of Dan Koppen, Logan Mankins, Nick Kaczur, Stephen Neal and Matt Light. All five know their assignments and carry them out with near flawless execution.

2. New York Giants
One of the best-kept secrets in football is how good the Giants’ offensive line is at run blocking. Thanks to Pro Bowlers Chris Snee and Shaun O’Hara, running backs Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw should have no problem finding running room once again this season. Simply put, this is one of the most cohesive offensive lines in football that rivals only the Patriots in terms of stability.

3. New Orleans Saints
Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Pierre Thomas and Jeremy Shockey get a lot of credit for how good the Saints’ offense is (and deservedly so), but the backbone of New Orleans’ offensive success lays with one of the most underrated lines in the NFL. Led by tackle Jammal Brown and outstanding young guard Jahri Evans, the Saints’ line gave up a league-low 13 sacks last season and might just be the best pass blocking unit in the league. Hopefully mauler Carl Nicks will continue to develop and help this unit improve even more in the run-blocking department.

4. Denver Broncos
If the Broncos take a step back in 2009 after going 8-8 and coming up one win short of a division title, it won’t be because of their offensive line. Denver has one of the best units in all of football, led by their pair of young tackles Ryan Clady and Ryan Harris, who were both outstanding in ’08. Throw in a pair of underrated guards in Ben Hamilton and Chris Kuper - as well as the veteran presence of center Casey Wiegmann – and you have the makings of a solid all-around unit.

5. New York Jets
The addition of free agent guard Alan Faneca was pivotal to the Jets’ offensive line last year, not only in terms of strengthening the interior of their O-line but also lifting the production of youngsters D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold. Veteran Damien Woody also played surprisingly well after getting out of football hell in Detroit, and meshed well with the rest of the unit. As long as guard Brandon Moore recovers from the sports hernia surgery he underwent this offseason, the Jets should once again have one of the better offensive lines in all of football.

Offensive lines that also deserve mention: Carolina, Tennessee, Indianapolis, San Diego, Tampa Bay (see below), Philadelphia (see below), Miami, Baltimore, Minnesota and Cleveland.

One could make the argument that either Carolina or Tennessee deserve to be in the top 5 and the rest of the lines mentioned above are definitely top 15 material. One thing to keep in mind about Minnesota, however, is that they lost center Matt Birk (who signed with Baltimore). The Vikings should still have one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, but it’ll be interesting to see what kind of an effect not having Birk will have on the success of Adrian Peterson.

The Five Most Improved:

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I struggled with whether or not I should list the Bucs in this category given how they're already at a top level, but I wanted to talk about them because they have one of the best up-and-coming offensive lines in football. Right guard Davin Joseph is a Pro Bowler, tackles Jeremy Trueblood and Donald Penn continue to improve with each passing season, left guard Arron Sears is a force to be reckoned with and center Jeff Faine is a steady presence in the middle. This unit is already solid and there’s still room for improvement, which is why I feel I’m justified in listing them in his category.

2. Philadelphia Eagles
With their addition of former Bills offensive tackle Jason Peters in the offseason, the Eagles have one of the most improved offensive lines in the NFL. As long as Peters’ play doesn’t drop off after cashing in on a new six-year, $60.7 million contract this offseason, the two-time Pro Bowler should dramatically improve Philly’s offensive line play. But this unit doesn’t come without some concern. Tackle Shawn Andrews continues to deal with back problems and brother Stacy (an offseason addition from the Bengals) is just eight months removed from ACL surgery. Still, if the Andrews brothers can bounce back, the Eagles have the makings of a great offensive line.

3. Atlanta Falcons
Entering last season, offensive line was supposed to be a massive weakness for the Falcons. But Atlanta’s O-line came together and formed a tight bond that should only aid in their success in 2009. Hopefully left tackle Sam Baker can stay healthy this year and improve on the success he had as a rookie last season, while guard Justin Blalock should continue to sharpen his game as he enters his third season. Believe it or not, the strength of the unit might be on the right side, where Tyson Clabo and Harvey Dahl form a nasty run-blocking duo (just ask Falcons’ opponents and running back Michael Turner) that should once again pave the way for Atlanta’s excellent running game. Veteran center Todd McClure also continues to be the glue that holds this underrated line together.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags were absolutely ransacked by injuries to the O-line last year, which unsurprisingly had a negative affect on a team that many thought would contend for the Super Bowl. But all indications are that this line is healthy again and the additions of free agent Tra Thomas, as well as rookies Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton should only help. Jax also re-signed center Brad Meester in the offseason so as long as this revamped O-line comes together, the Jags should be in better shape than they were a year ago.

5. St. Louis Rams
It’s hard not to like what the Rams did in the offseason by signing the best young center on the free agent market in Jason Brown (formally of the Ravens) and selecting the best offensive tackle prospect in April’s draft in Baylor product Jason Smith. While this line still has a ways to go in terms of resembling a unit that can keep quarterback Marc Bulger upright and open enough holes for running back Steven Jackson, there’s no question that St. Louis has vastly upgraded its O-line. (Assuming of course that Brown pans out and Smith isn’t a massive bust, that is.)

The Five Worst:

1. Detroit Lions
This is by far the worst unit in the NFL and even though new GM Martin Mayhew upgraded other positions this offseason, he failed to add talent on Detroit’s miserable offensive line. Outside of selecting solid blocking tight end in Brandon Pettigrew in April’s draft, what did Mayhew do to upgrade this unit? Gosder Cherilus should develop more in his second year and Daniel Loper is an upgrade over Damion Cook at left guard, but Jeff Backus often resembles a turntable at left tackle and chances are quarterbacks Daunte Culepper and/or Matthew Stafford will be on their backs a lot this season. With how bad Detroit’s O-line is, running back Kevin Smith doesn’t stand to have that big of a year either, though he performed pretty well in ’08 behind a similarly bad line.

2. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals certainly don’t have the worst collection of talent on their offensive line, but nobody really stands out and who knows how well they’ll play as a unit. Rookie first round pick Andre Smith has all of the talent in the world, but his work ethic and conditioning have been criticized in the past and therefore he remains a huge question mark. Cincinnati views him as a right tackle, so maybe that will take the pressure off of him in his first year. That said, is Andrew Whitworth the guy you want protecting Carson Palmer’s blindside? Can Kyle Cook overcome his lack of experience with good football IQ? There are a lot of question marks surrounding a unit that will have new starters at four different positions this year.

3. Buffalo Bills
There’s really not much to like about a unit that significantly under performed in 2008 and then lost its best player, tackle Jason Peters, in the offseason. Buffalo plans on starting two rookies (albeit, two promising rookies) in Eric Wood and Andy Levitre at guard and also has to shift Brad Butler to right tackle. That’s a ton of change for one unit and while there is some excitement surrounding Buffalo’s offense this year with the addition of Terrell Owens, I wouldn’t set expectations to high on quarterback Trent Edwards or even running back Marshawn Lynch. Granted, a case could be made that Wood and Levitre might blossom and the Bills' line will be better than advertised, but it's never wise to count on rookies excelling because don't make a significant impact in their first years.

4. Seattle Seahawks
This was once one of the best offensive lines in football, but has since fallen off dramatically. Every starter in this unit missed time last season due to injuries, including Walter Jones, who is still a solid left tackle but is no spring chicken at 35. Rookie Max Unger is a good young talent, but he has to make the transition to guard after playing center at Oregon. Rob Sims showed flashes of potential in his rookie season two years ago, but last year was a disaster after he tore his pectorals muscle in September and was placed on IR. Chris Spencer is another player coming off season-ending surgery, so while Seattle has some budding youth on its O-line, there are still some major injury concerns surrounding this group.

5. San Francisco 49ers
I’ll make this quick: The Niners surrendered a league-high 55 sacks last year and then decided to concentrate on adding position players in free agency and the draft. Nobody is going to argue with San Fran taking dynamic wide receiver Michael Crabtree with the No. 10 pick in April’s draft, but this team shouldn’t have ignored its offensive line in later rounds.

Last month we started looking at last season’s statistics for position players in fantasy football land, and today we’ll look at a position many often overlook. That’s fantasy defenses, which can sometimes put up just enough points to earn your team a victory once in a while. It’s always smart to try and grab one of the top units, although as we’ve seen before, things change, sometimes drastically, from year to year with fantasy D’s. Me? I like to grab my defense before my kicker. This list is based on point totals from one of my leagues, so keep in mind that stats vary from year to year.

1. Baltimore Ravens-The Ravens’ defense is perennially awesome, and we’ll find out for sure how much of that was due to former coordinator Rex Ryan, who is now the head honcho for the Jets. Ryan took plenty of players with him too, like LB Bart Scott and S Jim Leonhard, but the Ravens still have Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs. Reed just keeps getting better every year, and his sick nose for the ball is one reason the Ravens had a league high 26 picks. They will keep scoring low as always, but their 34 sacks last season isn’t much to get excited about. Bottom line: The Ravens won’t be a number one this year, but are still top 10.

2. Philadelphia Eagles-Sadly, coordinator Jim Johnson passed away this week, though he was on leave from the team anyway. Look for the Eagles to continue Johnson’s schemes however, which means blitz, blitz and more blitz. What that means to you is sack points, and while Brian Dawkins is now in Denver, the secondary is still strong with corners Sheldon Brown and Asante Samuel and safeties Quintin Mikell and Quintin Demps. Bottom line: 48 sacks is a lot, and the Eagles may not match that in ’09, but they aren’t going to suck by any means.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers-You don’t win the Super Bowl without a stout unit, and this won finished second in the league with 51 sacks, led by two awesome linebackers, NFL Defensive Player of the Year James Harrison, and LaMarr Woodley. The Steelers also ranked #1 in points allowed and yard allowed, with 20 picks and three defensive scores. Bottom line: With the front seven intact, this unit may be the top defense taken in many FF drafts.

4. Tennessee Titans-If you live in Nashville like I do, you saw this team play a lot, and let me tell you….their games are pretty boring to watch. Well, unless you like 13-10 scores every week. Punishing DT Albert Haynesworth is now in Washington, but Tony Brown and Kyle Vanden Bosch are no slouches, and CB Cortland Finnegan is a ball hawk like Ed Reed. Bottom line: More boring games for me, more fantasy points for you.

5. Chicago Bears-Their 22 interceptions probably had a lot to do with the Bears finishing as high as they did in 2008, but the Monsters of the Midway with just 28 sacks? To put that in perspective, the Saints also tallied 28 sacks. And besides Brian Urlacher, go ahead try to name five players on this defense. The Bears gave up 350 points in ’08, which is over 100 more than the Titans, Steelers and Ravens. Still, it’s the Bears. Bottom line: You can pick them, but I’m only picking them as a bye week backup.

6. Tampa Bay Bucs-This is not the same unit that ranked in the top 10 in points allowed and yards allowed in 2008, with Jon Gruden gone and Raheem Morris at the helm. Derrick Brooks is gone as are Cato June and Jovan Haye, but the likes of DE Gaines Adams and the ageless CB Ronde Barber remain. How much of Gruden’s mark will be missed? Bottom line: With so much turnover in the front office and on the field, I’m not taking my chances with these guys.

7. Green Bay Packers-Everyone expected big things from the Pack in 2008, but it was their offense, led by QB Aaron Brooks and WR Greg Jennings that were the bright spots on a mediocre team. So now with new D-coordinator Dom Capers and his 3-4 in place, things will look different at Lambeau. Aaron Kampman is now an outside linebacker, and BJ Raji and AJ Hawk are left to clog up the middle. Kampman will likely have more sacks, but how will the 3-4 affect overall fantasy points? Bottom line: I’m going out on a limb-the Pack will be much better defensively, and could be a fantasy sleeper.

8. New York Jets-DT Kris Jenkins is a monster, and Rex Ryan brought along a few toys, like Bart Scott and Jim Leonhard, as we mentioned earlier. Eric Mangini also took some players with him to Cleveland, but the Jets will still keep scores low, rack up sacks, and score on defense (5 defensive TDs in 2008). CB Darrelle Revis had 5 picks and keeps getting better. Bottom line: Proceed with caution, but still a Top 10 D.

9. Indianapolis Colts-Even with Tony Dungy gone and Jim Caldwell running the team, the Colts still give up way too much ground on the ground. Thing is, they are opportunistic, and they have Dwight Freeney attacking the QB and a bunch of under the radar players (like LB Gary Brackett) wreaking havoc (30 forced fumbles and 5 defensive scores in 2008). Bottom line: The Colts’ D will keep them in games, meaning these guys will continue to play hard and put up decent fantasy points.

10. Minnesota Vikings-These guys are damn near as good as the Ravens, led on the line by Jared Allen and DT’s Pat and Kevin Williams (45 team sacks in 2008). 12 picks from this unit is baffling, as is allowing 333 points, but they can be better. Bottom line: The Vikes may not be a true top 10 this season, so I’d take my chances with the revamped Giants or the sack-happy Cowboys before them.

Teams that aren’t on this list you’ll want to draft: New York Giants, San Diego Chargers, Dallas Cowboys, Washington Redskins.

We’ll be spending much of our fantasy football preview (coming soon!) highlighting the players who represent good value this year. But while finding a few diamonds in the rough can make or break a fantasy team, it is just as important to pick the right diamond in the first round. Fantasy championships aren’t won in the first round, but they can be lost.

To that end, I’m going to discuss the five RBs that I believe are head and shoulders above the rest. The first three players are as solid as the day is long, and while the last two aren’t quite as dependable, their upside trumps the question marks surrounding their short-term prospects.

Any ADP data you see is from Antsports, and it assumes a 12-team league with their high performance scoring system, which includes six points per rush TD and one point per reception.

1. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars (1.02)
Sharing time with Fred Taylor for much of his career, MJD has still averaged 1313 total yards, 49 receptions and 12.6 TD over his first three seasons. Even though Taylor seemed to step aside in 2008, he still had 143 carries, which ate into MJD’s touches. The Jacksonville offensive line is finally healthy, and along with new additions Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton, the Jags should get much better play up front. With Taylor gone and an easier schedule, all signs point to a career year for Maurice Jones-Drew.
Projected stats: 230 carries, 1035 rushing yards, 12 rush TD; 55 rec, 495 rec yards, 2 rec TD…291 fantasy points

2. Matt Forte, Bears (1.03)
As a rookie, Forte was the top fantasy back in 2008. Kevin Jones has been looking good, and the Bears seem to want to take some of the workload off of their young buck. So I’m predicting a drop in carries and receptions, but not a huge drop. He is one of the league’s best pass-catching backs and with limited options in the passing game, Jay Cutler will have to look Forte’s way early and often. Moreover, the Bears’ O-line looks to be improved with the addition of Orlando Pace, who needs to stay healthy for Forte to drastically improve his pedestrian ypc (3.9).
Projected stats: 269 carries, 1103 rushing yards, 8 rush TD; 57 rec, 433 rec yards, 3 rec TD...277 fantasy points

3. Adrian Peterson, Bears (1.01)
It looks like Brett Favre isn’t going to be under center for the Vikings, so the offense will again be extremely dependent on Peterson’s ability to run the football. Even though he faced a host of eight-man fronts last season, he still averaged 4.8 yards per carry, in no small part because Minny has one of the best offensive lines in football. AP is a threat in the passing game, but the Vikings don’t make much of an effort to get him the ball in space. One downside – he led the league in fumbles (9) in 2008.
Projected stats: 340 carries, 1632 rushing yards, 11 rush TD; 20 rec, 160 rec yards, 1 rec TD...271 fantasy points

4. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers (1.06)
LT2 didn’t turn in the kind of season that we were all expecting, but he still had a solid year, finishing as 2008’s RB10. (Had he scored one more TD, he would have been RB6.) He fought through groin and toe injuries, but looks completely healthy now and head coach Norv Turner expects him to challenge for the rushing title. Tomlinson is on the wrong side of 30, and has carried the ball 2657 times in his career. But he’s always been special, so there’s a good chance he can buck the odds and squeeze another top 5 season (or two) out of those old bones.
Projected stats: 260 carries, 1092 rushing yards, 11 rush TD; 45 rec, 338 rec yards, 2 rec TD...266 fantasy points

5. Steven Jackson, Rams (1.05)
Even though he missed (or was limited) in five games in 2008, Jackson still finished the season as RB19 and was one of only five backs – Forte, DeAngelo Williams, Brian Westbrook and Reggie Bush being the other four – to average at least 19 fantasy points per game. Clearly, he’s a top 5 back when healthy, but can he stay healthy? He has missed eight games over the last two seasons, so it’s a legitimate concern. Still, his upside is too good to pass up at 1.05.
Projected stats: 280 carries, 1148 rushing yards, 9 rush TD; 45 rec, 383 rec yards, 2 rec TD...264 fantasy points

You may be wondering where Michael Turner’s name is, but as the Falcons open up the playbook more and more for Matt Ryan (along with the addition of Tony Gonzalez), I don’t think Turner will approach 370 carries again this season. Besides, he’s not involved enough in the Falcons’ passing game to warrant a spot on this list, at least in a PPR league.

Of course, I always reserve the right to change my mind (or my projections), but as it stands today, this is the order in which I would go if I were drafting in a high performance PPR league. In the meantime, be sure to follow "FantasyTips" on Twitter, where we'll be publishing even more fantasy content as the season gets closer.

Related content: Surprises and Busts: Trying to predict the unpredictable in fantasy football

When it comes to fumbles, nobody drops the ball more than quarterbacks, because they handle the ball more than anyone besides the center. Brett Favre has 157 of them, which leads active players (yes, we’re considering Favre active). But many times when a QB fumbles, he can pounce right back on the ball. Running backs are a different story. The ones who fumble a lot often wind up in their coach’s doghouse because most of the time it’s because of careless ball handling. As for fantasy football, you’ll want to be careful with these guys too because they take points off your scoreboard, both by negative points for fumbles, and for lost opportunities on offense. So here is the active Top 10 in fumbles by running backs…..

1. Edgerrin James (43)-James isn’t as bad as early in his career, like when he fumbled 8 times during his rookie year of 1999 with the Colts. But you tend to look the other way when the other numbers offset the fumbles-and James was an All Pro that year with 2139 yards from scrimmage and 17 total touchdowns.

2. Ricky Williams (41)-Ricky definitely comes down with fumble-it is pretty often, and that has to drive Bill Parcells crazy. I wonder if it would help if Ricky thought he was carrying a bag of..…oh forget it.

3. Jamal Lewis (39)-Lewis has improved drastically in this area, fumbling only twice last season. But he fumbled 8 times in back to back seasons in 2002 and 2003 while with Baltimore. Yikes.

4. Ahman Green (37)-He hasn’t fumbled since 2006, but that’s only because Green has carried the ball just 144 times since then.

5. Michael Pittman (31)-Pittman was one of like 15 running backs used by the Broncos last season.

6. Shaun Alexander (31)-For a few years there, Alexander was putting up such ridiculous numbers that Mike Holmgren was forced to accept some drops.

7. Warrick Dunn (26)-He’s never had more than 4 fumbles in a season, but he’s been playing for so long that he wound up on here. Dunn may be one of the most underrated RBs in the history of the NFL.

8. Fred Taylor (26)-Taylor has fumbled less in recent years, but he’s also carried the ball less. It should be interesting to see if his career is re-ignited in a Patriots’ uniform.

9. LaDainian Tomlinson (25)-He fumbled 8 times in his rookie year, and only 17 times since. With 2657 total carries, that’s not bad at all.

9 (tie). Clinton Portis (25)-Portis is a solid RB, but he does have two quirks-he’s injury prone and he drops the ball a few too many times.

Source: Pro Football Reference

Most fantasy owners draft a running back in the first round and oftentimes their season depends on how that player fares. If he misses a few games with an injury and is bothered by it for a few more, his production will suffer and it will put his fantasy team in a tough spot. This can be offset if his owner is savvy enough to draft one of the “surprise” backs that inevitably crash the top 10 every season.

But how does one pluck one of these backs out of the middle rounds? Better yet, how can we avoid drafting an early round bust in the first place?

As a forewarning, this is not a tight article. I ponder, deliberate and meander as I go along. Trying to predict the future is nebulous at best and futile at worst, so please bear with me as I muddle my way through this topic.

Here’s a list of the top RBs from 2008...

RB1 – Matt Forte (RB30)
RB2 – DeAngelo Williams (RB36)
RB3 – Maurice Jones-Drew (RB13)
RB4 – Thomas Jones (RB23)
RB5 – Brian Westbrook (RB3)
RB6 – Michael Turner (RB19)
RB7 – Adrian Peterson (RB2)
RB8 – Steve Slaton (RB67)
RB9 – Chris Johnson (RB40)
RB10 – LaDainian Tomlinson (RB1)
RB11 – Clinton Portis (RB8)
RB12 – Marshawn Lynch (RB9)

Michael Turner went on average in the very late third round, so that makes six backs that were drafted outside the first two rounds that made the top 12. Maurice Jones-Drew was a fringe first round pick, so players that were drafted in the first round finished in the top 12 about 50% of the time. Marion Barber (drafted RB7, finished RB13) and Frank Gore (drafted RB6, finished RB14) just missed the top 12. There were three first round “busts” – Joseph Addai, Larry Johnson and Willis McGahee – who finished outside the top 35. All three missed significant time due to injury. The final first round pick, Steven Jackson, finished as RB19 even though he missed four games due to injury.

What does this all mean? Good question...

Of the first 12 picks, eight finished in the top 20, and seven finished in the top 15. While that success rate certainly wouldn’t qualify as a sure thing, it doesn’t dispel the notion that fantasy owners should look to draft a running back in the first round. It’s not like drafting a WR was any more rewarding last year. The top three receivers – Randy Moss, Terrell Owens and Reggie Wayne – finished 11th, 13th and 12th amongst wideouts, respectively. The top QB, Tom Brady, missed the entire season with an injury and the second QB off the board, Peyton Manning, finished as 2008’s QB6.

Looking at the four middle- to late-round picks that made the top 12, we can draw some common themes. Five of the six are/were young. Thomas Jones had eight years in the league entering the 2008 season. The next most experienced player was Michael Turner, who had four years in the league. Four of the six were newcomers to their respective teams, with three rookies and Turner, who joined the Falcons after four seasons with the Chargers. Three entered the season as members of a committee -- Williams split time with Jonathan Stewart, Chris Johnson shared carries with LenDale White and Steve Slaton emerged as the last man standing in Houston.

Now let’s take a look at 2007…

RB1 – Brian Westbrook (RB8)
RB2 – LaDainian Tomlinson (RB1)
RB3 – Clinton Portis (RB16)
RB4 – Joseph Addai (RB6)
RB5 – Adrian Peterson (RB26)
RB6 – Jamal Lewis (RB27)
RB7 – Frank Gore (RB4)
RB8 – Marion Barber (RB24)
RB9 – Willis McGahee (RB13)
RB10 – Earnest Graham (RB??, undrafted)
RB11 – Maurice Jones-Drew (RB15)
RB12 – Reggie Bush (RB10)

There were four major surprises in the top 12 in 2007 – Peterson, Lewis, Barber and Graham. Peterson and Lewis were newcomers to their respective teams, while Barber and Graham each emerged from a RBBC as the main man. (Graham was actually the last man standing.) Portis was a semi-surprise, as he was coming off an injury-plagued 2006 and finished the season as RB3. The other seven top 12 players weren’t that surprising, as they were all picked in the top 15.

Seven of the top 12 picks in 2007 could be considered disappointments. Steven Jackson (drafted RB2, finished RB15), Willie Parker (drafted RB7, finished RB20) and Ronnie Brown (drafted RB12, finished RB23) were minor disappointments, while Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Rudi Johnson and Laurence Maroney all finished outside of the top 30. All four players missed significant time due to injury. LJ, Alexander and Johnson all had at least 622 carries during the previous two seasons.

WHAT TO MAKE OF ALL OF THIS

It’s difficult to predict who is going to bust because usually underperformance stems from some sort of injury. Some fantasy football analysts argue that a heavy workload in previous seasons will eventually cause a breakdown, but a large number of carries also indicates dependability and consistency, which is why these players are being drafted this early in the first place.

LaDainian Tomlinson is 30 and has averaged 332 carries over his eight years in the league. Even though he showed some signs of breaking down in 2008 (with a very pedestrian 3.8 ypc), he still gained 1536 yards from scrimmage and scored 12 TD, finishing the season as RB10. Would you pass on him late in the first round?

Steven Jackson is only 26, but he has missed eight games over the past two seasons after a stellar 2006 campaign. He should bounce back, but he’s also shown signs that he’s injury-prone. Brian Westbrook, Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, Clinton Portis, Brandon Jacobs and Marion Barber are all first- or second-round guys that are injury concerns for one reason or another. Unfortunately, it’s impossible to accurately predict which players are going to break down much less when.

So the best we can do is identify some possible surprises and hope they pan out, giving ourselves a safety net if one or more of our early picks have a disappointing season. We identified that youth, newcomer status, and starting the season in a RBBC were the top three factors of finding value in the middle to late rounds.

Right now, three names jump out at me: Derrick Ward (ADP: 5.03), Knowshon Moreno (4.10) and Chris Wells (6.01).

Ward was excellent when given the opportunity to start in place of an injured Brandon Jacobs in New York. He had 15+ carries eight times over the past two seasons, averaging 104 rushing yards in those games. He's also a very adept pass catcher, averaging 2.8 catches per game over the last two years. Most importantly, he's proven to be an efficient runner, averaging 4.8 ypc and 5.6 ypc in 2007 and 2008. He joins a semi-crowded backfield in Tampa that also includes Earnest Graham and Carnell Williams. But the Bucs gave Ward starter’s money, so he should have first crack at the job. His chances are further boosted by Williams’ knee injury and Graham’s ability to play fullback.

At first glance, Moreno looks to face something of an uphill battle to get carries in Denver. But these aren’t (or shouldn’t be) your father’s Broncos. Mike Shanahan is gone, and hopefully new coach Josh McDaniels didn’t inherit Skeletor’s joy of messing with his RB depth chart. Peyton Hillis, Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan and Ryan Torain are also there, but Moreno is the most talented runner of the group. Here’s an excerpt from Moreno's scouting report at FFToolbox…

Moreno is naturally blessed with a nice blend of size and speed, but it is his athleticism, vision, and ability to hit the hole that sets him apart as arguably the best running back in this year's draft class.

Moreover, the Broncos were 2nd in the league in yards per carry with 4.8. This was with Michael Pittman, Peyton Hillis and Selvin Young rushing the football. I expect Moreno will get starter’s carries and finish in the top 15, maybe even the top 10.

Lastly, Chris “Beanie” Wells joins Tim Hightower in the Arizona backfield. What’s worrisome about Wells is that the Cardinals have struggled with their ground game over the past several seasons. Last year, they averaged just 3.5 ypc, which was next to last in the league.

On the plus side, teams don’t usually burn a first round pick on a running back unless they plan to use him. Clearly, the Cardinals did not feel strongly enough about Hightower to use their first pick to shore up another weakness, and they must have seen something in Wells that they really liked. This kind of favoritism usually leads to opportunity, and that’s half the battle.

As the training camps wear on, we may be able to identify some of the other “surprise” prospects. Inevitably, a veteran will go down with an injury, or a rookie will make a splash. This might help us recognize who the next Earnest Graham or Chris Johnson will be.

Stay tuned.

It’s almost fantasy football time, and many of you, like me, have already been doing your research. So let’s take a look at a category that you may not pay much attention to, and many experts will tell you not to anyway. That’s field goal percentage. I realize choosing a kicker is like throwing spaghetti against the wall to see what sticks, but good references are to pick those on good offensive teams, or those that can’t score TDs and create more field goal attempts. But it’s also good to pick an accurate kicker, whether that kicker plays in a dome or not. I mean, why take your chances on someone who kicks 25 field goals but misses another 25? So here is a list of the active Top 10 in field goal percentage. You can thank me later.

1. Nick Folk, Dallas Cowboys (86.79%)-For as good as Folk’s rookie season was in 2007, he had less attempts but was even more accurate in 2008, kicking 20 of 22 field goals (90.9%). Which reminds me, what the hell ever happened to Mike Vanderjagt?

2. Nate Kaeding, San Diego Chargers (86.13%)-Sure, he kicks mostly in warm weather, but Kaeding is about as automatic as they come.

3. Robbie Gould, Chicago Bears (85.94%)-If you’re hitting better than 17 out of 20 times when your home field is in the WINDY city, you’re damn good.

4. Shayne Graham, Cincinnati Bengals (85.64%)-One of the lone bright spots on a team that is perpetually going nowhere.

5. Stephen Gostkowski, New England Patriots (85.56%)-No Adam Vinatieri? No problem. This kid stepped in as a rookie in 2006 and has improved each year, hitting 36 of 40 field goal attempts last season (90%) and leading the NFL in total points (148).

6. Rob Bironas, Tennessee Titans (84.50%)-Bironas is extremely dependable, but nothing topped his 2007 All-Pro campaign, when dude kicked an NFL record 8 field goals against Houston.

7. Matt Stover, free agent (83.70%)-The amazing thing about Stover is that he’s been doing it for so long. He broke in with the Browns in 1991 and moved with the team to Baltimore in 1996, where he played until last season.

8. Phil Dawson, Cleveland Browns (82.81%)-One of the original “expansion” Browns, Dawson, like his counterpart Graham in southern Ohio, has been a bright spot on a bad team for years.

9. Jeff Reed, Pittsburgh Steelers (82.65%)-Every year they seem to talk about how hard it is to kick in Heinz Field, so the fact that Jeff Reed is even on this list says a lot about his ability. I’d love to know what the guy could do playing in Minnesota for a year.

10. John Carney, free agent (82.59%)-Carney stepped in for Lawrence Tynes last season and all he did was hit 35 of 38 field goal attempts, an amazing 92.1% clip. It’s even more amazing because Carney played half his games in windy Giants Stadium, and because he did it at the age of 44.

Source: Pro Football Reference

When you are drafting your fantasy football team, you’re picking running backs, receivers and quarterbacks first. Tight ends and kickers are usually taken in the mid-late rounds because their value isn’t as high, and, especially in the case of kickers, you can still get a decent one in the draft’s final round. Here is a look back at the 2008 leaders at the two positions and how we think those numbers will project to 2009:

TIGHT ENDS

1. Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs-During a season in which he was kind of auditioning for other teams, Gonzalez had one of his best campaigns-96 catches for 1058 yards and 10 touchdowns. Those are, like, Torry Holt numbers. Gonzo is now with the Atlanta Falcons, where he should have the opportunity to put up similar numbers in 2009.

2. Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers-Gates had a disappointing season overall, with zero 100 yard games. But he was hurt most of the year, so even when he played he was hobbling. Still, 704 yards and 8 scores is not too shabby. This season, Gates should top that by at least 50%.

3. Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts-Clark was injured to start the 2008 season, but he really came on strong toward the end of it, just like his Colts team did. Clark owners were treated to a 12-catch, 142-yard, 1 TD game in week 15, and overall he finished with 77 catches for 848 yards and 6 touchdowns. There is no good reason to expect any less in ’09.

4. Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota Vikings-Shiancoe made more headlines for inadvertently showing his bare ass on camera, but he finished the season with one huge game to pad his 2008 stats, too. That was in Week 16, known in the fantasy world as title week-so Shiancoe no doubt helped some of you win your league by catching 7 passes for 136 yards and 2 scores, giving him totals of 42-596-7 on the season. But dude is too streaky to consider drafting earlier than the 12th round or so.

5. Anthony Fasano, Miami Dolphins-Fasano was streaky but, like Shiancoe, he had a 2-TD game in Week 16, which boosted his season value. Fasano finished with 34 catches for 454 yards and 7 TDs, but I’d be surprised if he’s even drafted by 50% of you. I mean, Jason Witten didn’t even make this list due to being hurt most of ’08.

KICKERS

1. Stephen Gostkowski, New England Patriots-The Patriots didn’t score as many TDs as they did in 2007 so Gostkowski only had 40 extra points as opposed to 74 the year before. That meant more field goal opps, and he converted 36 of 40 to lead all kickers with 148 points. He also had four field goals and five PATs in week 16 to help some win titles. With Tom Brady back, there is no reason to think Gostkowski’s numbers will dip much, but he may have more extra points in ’09.

2. David Akers, Philadelphia Eagles-He’s had a history of injuries, but when he’s in the lineup, Akers is one of the game’s most accurate kickers. Last season he had two 4-field goal games and three 3-field goal games. The Eagles are going to put points on the board, so Akers is draft material for sure.

3. John Carney, New York Giants-This was almost a fluke, as Carney had to fill in for the injured Lawrence Tynes. He did so well that he made the Pro Bowl, kicking 35 of 38 field goals and 38 of 38 on extra points. But with Tynes healthy, Carney is once again looking for work in ’09.

4. Matt Bryant, Tampa Bay Bucs-Bryant had to endure the death of his infant son a few games in, but he battled admirably. However, this is the Bucs we’re talking about, and they only allowed Bryant 36 PAT chances. Overall he had 32 of 38 field goals and 35 of the 36 extra points. But guys like Bryant are valuable because they play on teams that don’t score a lot of TDs, giving them more field goal chances. He should have similar numbers this season.

5. John Kasay, Carolina Panthers-Kasay had a 4-field goal game in week 1 and another in week 17, but only 20 field goals in the other 15 games. I’m just saying, I probably wouldn’t draft the guy.

So you still want to draft a running back with your number one pick after we crunched the numbers to find that quarterbacks have become equally or more valuable in fantasy football? Well, I can’t blame anyone that goes the traditional route here, especially with guys like Michael Turner and Adrian Peterson looking like legitimate #1 picks. Here are last season’s Top 10 running backs in fantasy points, keeping in mind that this is based on my league, and stats vary from league to league:

1. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers-I know some players take a few years to develop, but I live in Tennessee and saw Williams play on TV a lot when he was with Memphis. I drafted him in 2006 because I knew what not everyone knew-his upside was tremendous. Of course, he had 501 yards and a TD that year. But once DeShaun Foster was gone, Williams exploded, and last year racked up 1639 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns. Potential realized, and there’s more where that came from despite Jonathan Stewart sharing the load.

2. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons-Turner “The Burner” finally got out from under LT’s shadow in San Diego and showed with his new team that he can be a #1 RB-in a big, big way. In fact, Turner out-rushed LT by almost 600 yards. Take that, AJ Smith.

3. Thomas Jones, New York Jets-Jones had a big year, with 1519 total yards and 15 scores. But something tells me to expect a substantial drop-off this year. I mean, this is the same guy who scored 1 rushing TD in 2007.

4. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears-A rookie in 2008, Forte was a pleasant surprise and was basically the Bears’ entire offense. Now they have Jay Cutler at QB, which could mean just a bit less focus on the running game. Still, it’s the Bears, and plus Forte is just as valuable a receiver as he is a runner. Don’t expect a re-run of 2008 (1715 yards and 12 total touchdowns) but don’t expect a crappy season either.

5. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings-He may be frequently injured but AP is about as explosive as any player in the NFL. In fact, he may be what everyone expected Reggie Bush to be. Who? Yeah, I know. Anyway, Peterson had 1885 all-purpose yards but only 10 TDs. This season, I’m looking for 2400 yards from scrimmage and 15-20 scores. I can feel it.

6. Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles-Off-season surgery is either going to hamper Westbrook or make him better. I’ll still take a Brian Westbrook at 70% than, say, a Willis McGahee at 100%. When Westbook is on the field (1338 total yards, 54 catches, 14 total TDs in ‘08), he’s fantasy money.

7. Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants-Jacobs seemed to perform best when he shared carries with Derrick Ward, who is now in Tampa. Jacobs will still share carries, but with Ahmad Bradshaw. Jacobs had his second straight 1000-yard season (Ward also topped 1000 yards) with 15 touchdowns, and there is no reason to believe he’ll fall short of that in ’09. Well, unless the injury bug bites again.

8. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers-I’m still sick about drafting LT #1 last season in my league. I know that having the top pick doesn’t happen too often, and this guy just killed my season and probably everyone else’s that picked him first or second.
I mean, 1536 yards from scrimmage and 12 scores is not bad, but consider LT’s 2006 season-2323 overall yards and 31 TDs. Last year, LT was more like Thomas Jones in a good year.

9. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars-Streaky yes, but a solid player who can run and catch passes effectively. MJD had 824 rushing yards, and 62 receptions for 565 with 14 total touchdowns. With Fred Taylor in New England, expect those numbers to jump this season.

10. LenDale White, Tennessee Titans-This guy was the touchdown bogart for Chris Johnson, with only 773 yards but 15 scores. Should we expect an encore? It’s hard to say, but Jeff Fisher is definitely a creature of habit.

Last week we looked at the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks from 2008 with a look toward 2009. This week, it’s about those who catch passes. Wide receivers have become almost as valuable as running backs, so it’s important not to overlook that when you’re preparing for your fantasy draft. And you are preparing, right? Or will you cram on Labor Day weekend? If you’re like me, you’re reading this stuff now because these long months without football suck. So, about those receivers….and keep in mind this Top 10 is based on scoring from one of my own fantasy leagues, and stats may differ from league to league:

1. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals-There should be no question remaining as to who has the best hands in football. In fact, I’ll just say it -- that Larry Fitzgerald is the best receiver in football, and one of the best since the days of (dare I say it) Jerry Rice, or Lynn Swann. Yeah, he’s that good, and he’s just getting started. In ’08, Fitzgerald had 96 catches for 1431 yards and 12 touchdowns….and that’s with Kurt Warner having two other legitimate targets in Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston.

2. Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions-This poor bastard put up huge numbers last year for an 0-16 team-78 receptions for 1331 yards and 12 scores. It’s difficult to draft anyone on the Lions, though.

3. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans-This guy is just a beast. I mean, a freaking beast. Johnson had SIX games of over 130 receiving yards, and wound up with 115 catches for 1575 yards and 8 TDs…all usually with two guys covering him. Like I said, a beast. Now what would he do with a real QB?

4. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals-Q wants the ball, and he may not get it in Arizona this season. But his numbers and skills have every other GM salivating. Last year, despite missing four games with injuries, Boldin caught 89 passes for 1038 yards and 11 scores. He even rushed 9 times for 67 yards.

5. Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers-Jennings has been on the verge of fantasy superstardom for a few years now, and I think the next two seasons may be peak years for him -- especially with Aaron Rodgers coming into his own and Donald Driver losing a step or two. His 2008 numbers? 80 catches for 1292 yards and 8 touchdowns. This year, I’m saying 100-1500-12.

6. Randy Moss, New England Patriots-The fact that Moss still had a 1000-yard season catching passes from the yet-unproven Matt Cassel says a lot about Moss. Dude is a sick receiver. He had just four 100-yard games, but was consistent over the season with 69 receptions for 1008 yards and 11 TDs. He gets his boy Brady back in 2009, so look for 2007-ish numbers again.

7. Terrell Owens, Dallas Cowboys-He had one game over 200 yards, one more over 100, and every other game below 100. Owens managed 1052 yards on 69 catches with 10 scores, but by his standards the season was a bust. In Buffalo, I can’t imagine his numbers will be much better.

8. Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints-Marques Colston was never quite right after coming back from an injury, but Drew Brees kept throwing the ball to this guy, to the tune of 79 catches for 928 yards and 10 touchdowns-with three 100-yard games.

9. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers-He was suspended for the first two games in 2008, but still racked up 1421 yards on 78 catches with 6 scores…and a whopping eight 100-yard games. Steve Smith is just money, and he should be a Top 5 receiver in every fantasy league.

10. Antonio Bryant, Tampa Bay Bucs-Bryant had his best season as a pro last year after missing the entire 2007 campaign, catching 83 passes for 1248 yards and 7 TDs…and he gets bonus points for doing it with the Tampa Bay Bucs!

Remember when we were instructed to draft running backs with our first two, and in some cases, our first four, fantasy football picks? Yeah, that was so 1999. Heck, that was so 2004 or 2005 when LT and Shaun Alexander were dominating the gridiron. But a funny thing has happened. Running backs by committee are not only keeping legs fresh, they are wreaking havoc on fantasy rosters. Also, a recent trend toward pass-happy offenses is making quarterbacks and receivers more valuable. Last season, QBs were dominating -- here is how the Top 10 QBs finished fantasy-wise in 2008 (your league may have scored differently than mine) and what you can expect from them in 2009:

1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints-Brees fell 15 yards short of Dan Marino’s single season passing yards record, finishing with 5069 yards, along with 34 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. Is he going to match that? There’s no reason to believe he won’t.

2. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers-I had LT last year and one of the reasons his stats suffered was because this guy kept throwing the damn ball. Rivers threw for 4009 yards with 34 TDs and just 11 picks. This year, will they go back to more of a run-first offense? Probably not -- not with LT a year older.

3. Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals-Ah, the Fountain of Youth is a beautiful thing. Warner drank from it often, and of course when you have guys named Boldin and Fitzgerald to throw to, it can make you look good and feel ten years younger. Still, who expected 4582 yards and 30 touchdowns with 14 picks and a trip to the Super Bowl? Not me. This year, Warner may not have Boldin, who just keeps whining about his contract, but don’t think the QB’s numbers will suffer all that much.

4. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers-Brett who? You certainly won’t hear anyone blaming the Packers’ 6-10 season on Rodgers. It was in fact their defense that failed them, because Rodgers passed for 4038 yards with 28 TDs and 13 interceptions. And just for kicks, Favre’s numbers with the Jets were 3472 yards, but 22 TDs and league leading 22 picks. Going into 2009, Rodgers’ stock has to be even higher.

5. Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos-On what planet does 4526 yards and 25 touchdown passes get you run out of town? In Denver, where new coach Josh McDaniel screwed up and tried to trade for Matt Cassel. Oops. Cutler is now in Chicago, so that means his fantasy stock automatically drops a few notches.

6. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts-The Colts got off to a horrible start and in fact didn’t win the division for the first time in years. But Manning finished strong, with 4002 yards, 27 TDs and just 12 picks. Marvin Harrison is no longer catching his passes, but that doesn’t mean Manning doesn’t have weapons.

7. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles-It was a roller coaster season in 2008, but the Eagles came within about a quarter of reaching the Super Bowl. Somehow McNabb held it together (what, they have ties in the NFL?) and wound up having a great season, passing for 3916 yards with 23 TD passes and 11 picks. He only had 147 rushing yards and 2 rushing scores, but that’s what Philly has Brian Westbrook for. McNabb is getting long in the tooth, but he’s smarter and as accurate as ever.

8. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys-Okay, so there may be trouble in paradise and there is no T.O. anymore, but Romo is still a very good fantasy QB. His 3448 yards and 26 TDs were a bit off his 2007 pace (4211, 36 TDs), but part of that is because he missed a few games with a thumb injury.

9. Matt Cassel, New England Patriots-With zero pro experience and almost zero college experience, who would have thought Matt Cassel could come in for Tom Brady and have the season he did? Okay, so he is no Brady, but Brady is in a class of his own anyway. Cassel’s 3490 yards with 21 TD passes and just 10 interceptions were good enough to land him the starting job in Kansas City. How that will affect his fantasy stats remains to be seen, but don’t expect too much of a drop-off on an improved Chiefs’ team.

10. Chad Pennington, Miami Dolphins-You know Chad is still gloating after being pushed out of New York by Brett Favre, and then leading his Dolphins to the division title. Pennington is always risky as a fantasy QB because of injuries and inconsistency, but 3653 yards and 19 TDs is not shabby, nor was his microscopic total of 7 picks. If he stays healthy, Chad should have another good season.

The other name you’ll have to consider in 2009 is Brady. He missed the final 15 ¾ of the season after getting knocked out of the opener against Kansas City, but early reports are that Brady is looking and feeling great and will be at full strength in 2009. Randy Moss is salivating, and so will fantasy owners, though they will do so skeptically.

Are you ready for some football? I know I am and feel great just talking about it!

(Next week: Wide Receivers)

Fantasy football drafts won’t fire up in earnest for a few more months, but now that the real draft is over, it’s a good time to take a look at the rookie class and try to identify those players that have the best chance to make an impact in 2009.

At any position, a rookie’s value can be estimated with the following equation:

Value = Talent + Opportunity + Readiness

Talent is probably the tougher of the three to judge, but luckily we can leverage the work of those scouts and coaches who just put a ton of time into putting together their draft boards. A first rounder is probably a little better than a second rounder, a second rounder is probably a little better than a third rounder, and so on.

Opportunity is (usually) pretty obvious. If a team has a big hole at running back and they draft one in the first round, the chances are pretty good that he’ll be the team’s leading rusher by the end of the season.

Readiness has more to do with position than anything else. Year in and year out, running back is by far the easiest position for a rookie to excel. The big hurdle is pass blocking, so if they can get that down, they’ll see a lot of playing time. Just hand them the ball and let ‘em run. Rookie wide receivers have a tougher time finding success early on, but there are usually one or two guys each year who crack the top 30. Last year, it was Eddie Royal and Desean Jackson. In 2007, it was Dwayne Bowe. In 2006, it was Marques Colston. Larry Fitzgerald, Lee Evans and Michael Clayton thrived in 2004. The list goes on.

Generally speaking, very few tight ends and quarterbacks make a substantial fantasy impact in their rookie seasons. In 2008, Matt Ryan had the best season for a rookie QB in years, and he finished #16 amongst quarterbacks, making him only a decent backup in most fantasy leagues.

So it's best to focus on the running backs and wide receivers. Here are a few guys to keep your eye on...

RUNNING BACKS

Knowshon Moreno looks to be the odds on favorite to lead all rookies in rushing, though the Denver backfield is crowded with Correll Buckhalter, LaMonth Jordan, Ryan Torain and Selvin Young fighting for carries. Still, the team burned a first round pick to get him, so they obviously plan to use him. He’s a great all around back and an underrated receiver...Chris “Beanie” Wells joins Tim Hightower in the Arizona backfield. Hightower seems to be more of a short-yardage guy, but don’t rule out the Cards utilizing a RBBC. Wells has had a few nagging injuries throughout his career, but he hasn’t missed much time. His competitiveness has been questioned, though he’s a superb natural runner...Shonn Greene isn’t explosive, but he runs hard and is a patient runner. He has Thomas Jones and Leon Washington ahead of him, but those are two guys that could be overtaken if he plays extremely well in the preseason...Bernard Scott is a sleeper in Cincinnati. Cedric Benson is the starter there and Chris Perry was just cut, so it’s feasible that Scott could overtake Benson if he falters, on or off the field. Scott is a good all around back from a small school (Abilene Christian) who could surprise some people...Most of the other guys drafted early on are going to situations where they'll likely be unable to overtake the starter unless there's an injury of some sort. Donald Brown (IND), LeSean McCoy (PHI) and Glen Coffee (SF) fall into this category.

WIDE RECEIVERS

This is an interesting class of rookie wideouts. The first eleven WRs off the board went to teams in moderate to desperate need of help at the position. Michael Crabtree jumps out as a NFL-ready prospect who should have a ton of opportunity in San Francisco. His big negative is his QB situation...Percy Harvin is a DeSean Jackson-type who can make plays all over the field. If he has a good camp, he shouldn’t have a problem beating out Sidney Rice and become Minny’s WR2...Speaking of Jackson, the Eagles might have found his running mate in Jeremy Maclin. He has good speed and quickness, but needs to learn how to deal with the physicality of NFL corners...With the departure of Plaxico Burress, Hakeem Nicks is an interesting prospect for the Giants. Domenick Hixon and Steve Smith are penciled in as the starters, but Nicks could push either for playing time...Our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter, called Brian Robiskie “the most polished receiver in this year’s draft.” He’s a possession receiver, so maybe a Wes Welker/Anthony Gonzalez type. He’ll be more valuable in PPR leagues than standard TD-heavy leagues…Much has been made of Oakland’s pick of Darrius Heyward-Bey. He’s a burner, but isn’t the greatest route runner and lacks focus at times. However, Al Davis will be eager to prove everyone wrong, so there’s a good chance that Heyward-Bey will start, and that’s something...Kenny Britt joins Justin Gage and Nate Washington in Tennessee. Britt is the kind of guy that doesn’t do any one thing great, but is pretty solid across the board. With the guys ahead of him, there’s some opportunity for playing time...Juaquin Iglesias will have a chance to start if he can beat out Earl Bennett in Chicago (though Bennett played with Jay Cutler at Vandy, so he’ll probably get every chance to start)…Keep an eye on Jarrett Dillard in Jacksonville. The Jags just signed Torry Holt, but Dillard put up huge numbers at Rice.

TIGHT ENDS

Top TE pick Brandon Pettigrew looks like the best bet to make a rare impact as a rookie TE. He’s the complete package and the Lions will probably be trailing for most of ’09, so expect a lot of opportunity...Chase Coffman is a pass-catching TE out of MIZZOU that joins a Bengals team that just lost T.J. Houshmandzadeh...I’ve never seen this guy play, but Stalter thinks that Cornelius Ingram is a sleeper in Philly, though he missed all of last season with a knee injury. When healthy, the guy is a pass-catching stud.

QUARTERBACKS

Rookie QBs are best left to the late rounds, when most of the proven backups are already off the board. There are three guys that look to have a serious shot at starting in ’09. The first is Matthew Stafford, who takes over a Lions team in disarray. Working in his favor is the fact that he has Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew to throw to, Kevin Smith to hand the ball off to, and the Lions’ propensity to be trailing 95% of the time. If he can stay upright, it’s conceivable that he could have a decent fantasy year...Mark Sanchez was greeted by Jet fans like he was the second coming of Jesus. He doesn’t have very many starts under his belt, but he ran a pro-style offense at USC, so if he can pick up the playbook quickly, he should be able to start the season under center. He has Jerricho Cotchery to throw to and a pretty good defense to lean on, so he might be more of a Joe Flacco than a Matt Ryan in his rookie season in the sense that he may be more of a game manager than the leader of a potent offense...Josh Freeman joins a crowded stable of QBs in Tampa Bay, but there’s a reason the Bucs took him in the first round. He’s big, strong and has a great arm, so if he can pick up the playbook quickly, he has a good chance to start from the get-go.

A very special thanks to Anthony Stalter. You are my hero.