04/22/2008
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Here’s a bit of a head-scratcher for NFL draft fans. Just recently, Tampa Bay Bucs head coach Jon Gruden had this to say about 2007 Rookie of the Year Adrian Peterson:
"This running back might be the best back I've ever seen coming out of college.”
Really? Then why didn’t the Bucs take him when they had the chance to at No. 4 overall last year? If he was the best running back Gruden had ever seen coming out of college, why not race to the draft podium when he was still available?
That got us thinking: Given a mulligan, would Gruden pass on Peterson again?
With the 2008 NFL Draft on the horizon, we’ve decided to take a look into the past. No, we’re not going to re-do last year’s draft or one from three years ago. Instead, we’re going to take the five teams (Raiders, 49ers, Lions, Texans, Cardinals) with the worst winning percentages over the past five years and re-draft their first three picks from 2003 to 2005. We’re going to give these five losers some much-needed help, courtesy of our Monday morning quarterback skills.
Why re-do the drafts from 2003 through 2005? Simple -- most pundits agree that it’s unfair to grade players until they’ve been in the league at least three full seasons. With that said, the 2007 and 2006 drafts are automatically thrown out. And with more and more players bolting their original teams for big paydays on the free agent market, it doesn’t make sense to look too far back into the past anyway.
The players who were drafted from 2003 through 2005 should now be entering their prime and thus helping their teams win. And given that teams like to find starters in the first three rounds, it makes sense to concentrate on those rounds from those years.
Obviously we understand that the draft is subject to a major domino effect once one player comes off the board. We’re asking you to have an open mind and assume that the rest of the draft would have gone as originally planned, except for the teams that we’re re-drafting for, of course.
Let's see how different these five NFL bottom feeders would look like today had they drafted differently in the years 2003, 2004 and 2005.
2003 Draft Re-do
No. 31 – Nnamdi Asomugha, CB, California (Originally selected by the Raiders at No. 31)
Original Pick: Asomugha
No. 32 – Osi Umenyiora, DE, Troy State (Originally selected by the Giants at No. 52)
Original Pick: Tyler Brayton, DE, Colorado
No.63 – Lance Briggs, LB, Arizona (Originally selected by the Bears at No. 68)
Original Pick: Teyo Johnson, TE, Stanford
The Raiders might have avoided a serious drop off following their 2002 Super Bowl appearance had they gone all defense in the 2003 draft. They did very well with their original first pick by selecting future Pro Bowler Asomugha. They acquired pick No. 32 from Tampa via a trade and instead of choosing Brayton to fill their pass rushing needs, they could have gone with Umenyiora (right), who obviously has had a more productive career. In round two, the Raiders could have passed on Johnson and instead upgraded their outside linebacker position with Briggs, although one could make the argument that Briggs is a product of the Bears’ Cover 2 defense. Still, Oakland could have plugged Briggs into the weak-side spot that eventually was vacated by Eric Barton following the ’03 season.
2004 Draft Re-Do
No. 2 – Steven Jackson, RB, Oregon State (Originally selected by the Rams at No. 24)
Original Pick: Robert Gallery, OT, Iowa
No. 45 – Nick Hardwick, C, Purdue (Originally selected by the Chargers at No. 66)
Original Pick: Jake Grove, C, Virginia Tech
No. 67 – Jared Allen, DE, Idaho State (Originally selected by the Chiefs at No. 126)
Original Pick: Stuart Schweigert, S, Purude
Since they went primarily defense in the 2003 draft re-do, the Raiders could have landed some major offensive help in 2004. Even though Gallery appears to have found a home at guard on Oakland’s current offensive line, he’s still a massive bust considering he was selected second overall. How much of an upgrade would the versatile Jackson (right) have been over the combination of Amos Zereoue, Tyrone Wheatley and Justin Fargas? And really, Oakland could have easily gone with receivers Larry Fitzgerald or Roy Williams and been happy, too. In the second round, instead of choosing Grove, the Raiders could have landed the future Pro Bowler Hardwick to help open holes for Jackson. In round three, Allen replaces Schweigert, but only on the contingency that Oakland sticks with the 4-3 defensive front that they had in 2003, instead of switching to the 3-4. That would have given them Umenyiora at one end and Allen at the other, with free agent pick up Warren Sapp staying at tackle instead of moving outside to play end in a 3-4.
2005 Draft Re-Do
No. 23 – Logan Mankins, G, Fresno State (Originally selected by New England at No. 32)
Original Pick: Fabian Washington, CB, Nebraska
No. 38 – Lofa Tatupu, MLB, USC (Originally selected by Seattle at No. 45)
Original Pick: Stanford Routt, CB, Houston
No. 78 – Derek Anderson, QB, Oregon State (Originally selected by Baltimore at No. 213)
Original Pick: Kirk Morrison, LB, San Diego State
Originally, the Raiders selected Washington at No. 23, but with Asomugha and Charles Woodson at the corner positions, they instead could have concentrated on their offensive line. Mankins would have been a bit of a reach at No. 23, but the point is that the interior of the Raiders’ offensive line would have been solid following the ’04 selection of center Nick Hardwick. In the second round, they could have nabbed their defensive leader for years to come with Tatupu (right), who would have been a nice upgrade over Danny Clark at middle linebacker. Finally, while Morrison has been steady in the middle of Oakland’s defense over the past three years, Tatupu already fills that need. So they draft Anderson in the third round and maybe the former Oregon State product is leading the Raiders to a potential playoff berth last year instead of the Browns. Hey, you never know.
2003 Draft Re-Do
No. 26 – Anquan Boldin, WR, Florida State (Originally selected by Arizona at No. 54)
Original Pick: Kwame Harris, OT, Stanford
No. 57 – Jason Witten, TE, Tennessee (Originally selected by Dallas at No. 69)
Original Pick: Anthony Adams, DT, Penn State
No. 89 – Asante Samuel, CB, Central Florida (Originally selected by New England at No. 120)
Original Pick: Andrew Williams, DE, Miami
The Niners had a brutal first three picks in ’03, starting with the hold-machine Harris and two defensive linemen who didn't make an impact in Adams and Williams. Knowing what we do now about Larry Johnson, it would have been hard to pass on him at No. 26, but with Garrison Hearst on the roster and Frank Gore to be chosen in 2005, Boldin makes more sense. Plus, if the 49ers got their wide out in Boldin in 2003, one would assume they would have stayed away from potential first round bust Rashaun Woods in 2004. In the second round, Witten (right) would have made a great target for Jeff Garcia in the West Coast Offense, and assuming Samuel wasn’t a product of the Patriots’ defensive system, he would have added more stability to San Fran’s young secondary.
2004 Draft Re-Do
No. 31 – Bob Sanders, S, Iowa (Originally selected by Indianapolis at No. 44)
Original Pick: Rashaun Woods, WR, Oklahoma State
No. 46 – Darnell Dockett, DT, Florida State (Originally selected by Arizona at No. 64)
Original Pick: Justin Smiley, OG, Alabama
No. 58 – Matt Schaub, QB, Virginia (Originally selected by Atlanta at No. 90)
Original Pick: Shawntae Spencer, CB, Pittsburgh
How good would the 49ers’ secondary be if they had Samuel and Sanders (right) roaming the defensive backfield? And what if they still added Nate Clements in the 2007 offseason? Sure, there might have been salary cap ramifications, but dream people – dream! And had the team waited one more year to complement long-time vet Bryant Young at defensive tackle, San Fran could have hauled in Dockett instead of 2003 second round bust Anthony Adams. In the third round, the 49ers could have landed their potential quarterback of the future in Schaub, which would have been huge because then they could have avoided the weak QB class in 2005.
2005 Draft Re-Do
No. 1 – Shawne Merriman, LB, Maryland (Originally selected by San Diego at No. 12)
Original Pick: Alex Smith, QB, Utah
No. 33 – Khalif Barnes, OT, Washington (Originally selected by Jacksonville at No. 52)
Original Pick: David Bass, C, Michigan
No. 65 – Frank Gore, RB, Miami (Originally selected by San Francisco at No. 65)
Original Pick: Gore
Was Merriman (right) the best player in the 2005 draft? Probably not, but then again, which player was? The ’05 draft class was weak as a whole. And really, take your pick between Merriman and DeMarcus Ware because they’re both solid defenders and nasty pass-rushers. Think about how good the 49ers’ linebacker corps would be with Merriman lining up next to future Defensive Rookie of the Year Patrick Willis. If we didn’t already know San Fran would land Willis in 2007, Lofa Tatupu would have been the pick in the second round. But since we do know about Willis, Barnes is a nice consolation prize. As long as we overlook some off-field issues (like being arrested for speeding and calling a cop a “KKK devil who hates all colored people” in 2006), Barnes has been a solid pro. Everyone knows what Gore can do, so anybody but him in the third round doesn’t make much sense.
2003 Draft Re-Do
No. 2 – Andre Johnson, WR, Miami (Originally selected by Houston at No. 3)
Original Pick: Charles Rogers, WR, Michigan State
No. 34 – Rashean Mathis, CB, Bethune-Cookman (Originally selected by Jacksonville at No. 39)
Original Pick: Boss Bailey, LB, Georgia
No. 66 – Cory Redding, DT, Texas (Originally selected by Detroit at No. 66)
Original Pick: Redding
It almost seems asinine to have the Lions select a receiver again with how much the media continues to mock their absolute infatuation with the position in previous drafts. But in 2003, Detroit did need a wide out – they just chose the wrong one in Rogers. This time around, the Lions get it right with Johnson (right), and therefore can focus on other positions in future drafts. The team also boosts their secondary with the addition of Mathis (who joins Dre’ Bly to form a solid cornerback duo) and once again tabs Redding – an up and coming defensive tackle – in the third.
2004 Draft Re-Do
No. 7 – Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Miami OH (Originally selected by Pittsburgh at No. 11)
Original Pick: Roy Williams, WR, Texas
No. 30 – Ben Watson, TE, Georgia Originally selected by New England at No. 32)
Original Pick: Kevin Jones, RB, Virginia Tech
No. 37 – Bob Sanders, S, Iowa (Originally selected by Indianapolis at No. 44)
Original Pick: Teddy Lehman, LB, Oklahoma
Williams obviously wasn’t a bad pick, but with Johnson being selected in the first round in ’03, there’s no need to add yet another wide out (we know we just lost the attention of Matt Millen). There’s no telling if Big Ben (right) would have had the same success in Detroit as he’s had in Pittsburgh, but there’s a great chance he would have faired better than one John Joseph Harrington. Sanders would finally have given the Lions a quality safety (something they’ve lacked for years) and while we’re not enamored with the Watson pick, at least he would have been a great target for Roethlisberger.
2005 Draft Re-Do
No. 10 – Jammal Brown, OT, Oklahoma (Originally selected by New Orleans at No. 13)
Original Pick: Mike Williams, WR, USC
No. 37 – Lofa Tatupu, MLB, USC (Originally selected by Seattle at No. 45)
Original Pick: Shaun Cody, DT, USC
No. 72 – Marion Barber III, RB, Minnesota (Originally selected by Dallas at No. 109)
Original Pick: Stanley Wilson, CB, Stanford
It’s no surprise that the Lions have struggled as much as they have considering the offensive line is a major weakness every season. The selection of Brown would not only shore up the coveted left tackle position, but would also allow quality starter Jeff Backus to move to the right side, forming an above average tackle duo for Detroit. As seen in previous drafts, the Lions haven’t had much success filling their middle linebacker need, so the selection of Tatupu is a no-brainer. Since the team passed on Kevin Jones in the 2004 re-do, Barber (right) is a steal in the third round and gives them a bruising back for years to come.
2003 Draft Re-Do
No. 3 – Andre Johnson, WR, Miami (Originally selected by Houston at No. 3)
Original Pick: Johnson
No. 41 – Osi Umenyiora, DE, Troy State (Originally selected by the Giants at No. 52)
Original Pick: Bennie Joppru, TE, Michigan
No. 67: Tony Romo, QB, Eastern Illinois (Originally undrafted)
Original Pick: Antwan Peak, LB, Cincinnati
It’s hard to argue with the Texans’ original first round pick in 2003 since Johnson has developed into one of the most dangerous receivers in the game. Here’s something to chew on: Let’s say the Texans did take Umenyiora in the second round. Would they have drafted Mario Williams with the first overall pick in 2006? Or would they have possibly gone with Reggie Bush? Hmm. Considering he was undrafted, Romo was obviously off everyone’s radar in ’03, but what a steal he would have been as Houston’s third round pick. Romo to Johnson is a pretty nice combination.
2004 Draft Re-Do
No. 10 – Tommie Harris, DT, Oklahoma (Originally selected by Chicago at No. 14)
Original Pick: Dunta Robinson, CB, South Carolina
No. 27 – Bob Sanders, S, Iowa (Originally selected by Indianapolis at No. 44)
Original Pick: Jason Babin, DE, Western Michigan
No. 122 – Jared Allen, DE, Idaho State (Originally selected by Kansas City at No. 126)
Original Pick: Glenn Earl, S, Notre Dame
If the 2004 draft played out this way for the Texans, they would have had Umenyiora, Harris and Allen starting on their defensive line. Scary. As with the 49ers and Lions’ draft re-dos, Sanders (right) would have made a great second round pick for Houston. They could have also gone with Steven Jackson with their first pick, but once again, if they built a defensive line through the 2003 and ’04 drafts, they could have landed Reggie Bush, Frank Gore or Marion Barber in future drafts.
2005 Draft Re-Do
No. 16 – Logan Mankins, OG, Fresno State (Originally selected by New England at No. 32)
Original Pick: Travis Johnson, DT, Florida State
No. 73 – Marion Barber, RB, Minnesota (Originally selected by Dallas at No. 109)
Original Pick: Vernand Morency, RB, Oklahoma State
No. 114 – Michael Boley, LB, Southern Mississippi (Originally selected by Atlanta at No. 160)
Original Pick: Jerome Mathis, WR, Hampton
As stated in the Raiders’ 2005 draft re-do, Mankins would have been a major reach at No. 16. However, given how bad the Texans’ offensive line has been over the years, one would think they would jump at the chance to land a Pro Bowl guard to help open holes for Barber (right) and keep Romo upright. Speaking of Barber, how bad do the Texans want a re-do on taking Morency in the third round? They could have had their pick between Barber and Brandon Jacobs (who was originally taken just one pick after Barber). Boley is still a relative unknown, but he won’t be once he starts making yearly trips to Honolulu. He’s incredibly versatile and would have made a great pairing with 2006 Defensive Rookie of the Year DeMeco Ryans.
2003 Draft Re-Do
No. 17 – Larry Johnson, RB, Penn State (Originally selected by Kansas City at No. 27)
Original Pick: Bryant Johnson, WR, Penn State
No. 18 – Nnamdi Asomugha, CB, California (Originally selected by Oakland at No. 31)
Original Pick: Calvin Pace, DE, Wake Forest
No. 54 – Anquan Boldin, WR, Florida State (Originally selected by Arizona at No. 54)
Original Pick: Boldin
Instead of signing the over-the-hill Emmitt Smith in the 2003 offseason, the Cards could have drafted LJ (right) and kick- started his career two seasons earlier than it did in Kansas City. Plus, with their second pick in the first round, ‘Zona could have vastly upgraded a weak secondary with the incredibly well rounded Asomugha. The original selection of Boldin still makes sense given his amazing rookie season (101 receptions, 1,377 yards, 8 TDs) and the degree of success he’s had thus far as a pro.
2004 Draft Re-Do
No. 3 – Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Pittsburgh (Originally selected by Arizona at No. 3)
Original Pick: Fitzgerald
No. 33 – Karlos Dansby, LB (Originally selected by Arizona at No. 33)
Original Pick: Dansby
No. 64 – Darnell Dockett, DT, Florida State (Originally selected by Arizona at No. 64)
Original Pick: Dockett
No need for a double take – yes, these picks are the Cards’ originally choices in 2004. They had a great draft and while you could make an argument for Bob Sanders in the second, current strong safety Adrian Wilson has been as solid as they come since his rookie year in 2001, so why make a change? After a draft like this, it’s surprising to see the Cards have one of the lowest winning percentages over the past five years.
2005 Draft Re-Do
No. 8 – Jammal Brown, OT, Oklahoma (Originally selected by New Orleans at No. 13)
Original Pick: Antrel Rolle, CB, Miami
No. 44 – Lofa Tatupu, MLB, USC (Originally selected by Seattle at No. 45)
Original Pick: J.J. Arrington, RB, California
No. 75 – Derek Anderson, QB, Oregon State (Originally selected by Baltimore at No. 213)
Original Pick: Eric Green, CB, Virginia Tech
Brown would have been a bit of a reach at No. 8, but looking back, so was Rolle. Brown would have allowed the Cards to move Leonard Davis to guard and therefore form a tremendous wall on the left side of the offensive line for Larry Johnson to run behind. Obviously Brown and Davis could have helped Anderson stay upright as well. Since the Cards decided to pass on Bob Sanders for Dansby in the second round of 2004, adding Tatupu (right) to their linebacker corps makes sense. Once again, Anderson would have been a reach in the third round, but considering how the Cards would eventually spend a high first round pick on Matt Leinart, maybe Anderson turns out to be the Pro Bowler he was last year for the Browns and Arizona finally gets their quarterback. Green is slowly developing into a nice defensive back, so re-selecting him in the third round isn’t a terrible idea either, although how could a team pass on a potential franchise QB?