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| 2006 March Madness brackets, March Madness preview, bracket analysis, bracket breakdown
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2006 Bracket Breakdown
By John Paulsen (jpaulsen@bullz-eye.com)
03/13/2006
ALSO:
See John's Tourney Countdown for a
deeper look at the NCAA Tournament, and don't miss his
Upset Couples
bracket.
After every Selection Sunday, everyone loves to
second-guess the selection committee. I’m no different, so here are my thoughts
about each region, including general thoughts on the seeds, upset possibilities,
intriguing potential match-ups and possible dark horses. I’ll also discuss a
couple of the bigger snubs and talk about a team that doesn’t really belong in
the tournament.
Got your own comments on the tournament? Post them at
The Scores Report, the National Sports Blog.
ATLANTA REGIONAL
Seedings
Duke is the #1 seed in the region as well as the #1 seed overall. The good news
is that the Blue Devils will get to play in Greensboro, NC and that UConn and
Villanova are on the other side of the bracket. The bad news is that Duke is
going to have a hell of a time getting to the Final Four. In the second round,
they could potentially play George Washington, who was ranked in the top 10
before a couple of losses that were probably the result of the loss of Pops Mensah-Bonsu to injury. He should be back and if GW can get by UNC-Wilmington,
they could give Duke a tough game. After that, the Blue Devils will probably
face Syracuse or LSU; both teams would present serious problems. Texas looms on
the bottom half of the regional as a potential revenge match-up in the Elite
Eight. (Duke beat Texas by 31 early in the season.)
The seedings in this regional look pretty solid to me, though I have a hard time
believing that Texas is the lowest-ranked #2 seed (which should be the case if
Duke is rated #1 overall). I’m sure Duke would rather see Tennessee, Ohio State
or UCLA in place of the Longhorns.
Upset Possibilities
Syracuse and LSU have tough games against Texas A&M and Iona, respectively. The
Orangemen are riding high after their storybook run in the Big East tournament
and have gone from being a bubble team to a #5 seed. We’ll see if Jim Boeheim
can help his team avoid a letdown. Iona has a great player in Steve Burtt, who
is averaging 25 points per game for the Gaels. His performance (28 ppg on 52%
shooting) during the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tourney was outstanding.
Intriguing Potential Match-ups
The Duke/GW and WVU/Iowa second round match-ups would be quite interesting. Down
the road, the Duke/Texas rematch would be a great battle. The potential
second-round match-up between Cal’s Leon Powe and Texas’ LaMarcus Aldridge would
be a beauty.
Dark Horse
Sixth-seed West Virginia had a great run last season and their unique style of
play might cause some problems for the opposition this year. Kevin Pittsnogle
gets a lot of press, but Mike Gansey is the guy that makes the Mountaineers go.
They have a tough road ahead (#3 Iowa and #2 Texas are possible match-ups) but
they have a group of talented veterans and had a rugged Big East schedule. They
could pull a surprise or two.
OAKLAND REGIONAL
Seedings
Memphis is supposedly the fourth ranked #1 seed, and they drew the #2-seeded
UCLA Bruins. Gonzaga as a #3-seed is probably right, considering their 96th
ranked strength of schedule, but I rank them ahead of Tennessee. These two
teams, along with Kansas, who is coming off a Big 12 tourney win over Texas,
present all sorts of problems for Memphis’ hopes for a Final Four appearance.
Upset Possibilities
As I noted in my Tourney Countdown, Indiana has to travel to Utah and play in
the altitude against a feisty San Diego State team that has experience playing
in the thin air. If SDSU’s Marcus Slaughter is able negate Marco Killingsworth’s
impact on the game, the Aztecs will have a great shot at the upset.
Bucknell should be able to beat Arkansas, though in the 8/9 game, it’s not
really an upset.
Intriguing Potential Match-ups
The youth of #4 Kansas vs. the experience of #5 Pitt in the second round should
make for a good one. Gonzaga vs. UCLA in the Sweet Sixteen would give the
Bulldogs an opportunity to make a statement about their place in the world. It
would be interesting to see the Bruin defense try to handle Adam Morrison and
J.P. Batista.
Dark Horse
If Carl Krauser shoots the ball well, Pitt has a great shot to beat Kansas and a
decent shot at upending Memphis. They have a lot of experience, play good
defense and have been getting good interior play from Aaron Gray. Then again,
they could lose to Kent State in the first round.
WASHINGTON D.C. REGIONAL
Seedings
Connecticut appears to have the easiest road to the Final Four for any of the #1
seeds. Barring a big surprise, the only real roadblock appears to be North
Carolina and, as I mentioned in my Tourney Countdown, there’s no guarantee that
the Tar Heels will make it to the Elite Eight to challenge the Huskies.
Tennessee is a weak #2 seed, and that spot probably should have been given to
North Carolina, Gonzaga or even Boston College.
Upset Possibilities
None of the higher seeds jump out at me as real upset candidates, but keep an
eye on that Winthrop/Tennessee match-up. The Eagles go 10 deep and might give
the Volunteers more than they can handle.
Intriguing Potential Match-ups
The North Carolina/Michigan State match-up would be an interesting second-round
battle. Both schools have great pedigrees and it would feature two of the best
coaches in the game.
Dark Horse
Don’t be surprised if Wichita State is able to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. The
Shockers feature a balanced attack, with four players averaging double digits in
scoring. If they get by Seton Hall, they would face a vulnerable #2-seed in
Tennessee. Michigan State is another team that could surprise in this region.
MINNEAPOLIS REGION
Seedings
Villanova is the #1 seed in Minneapolis and they have to hate seeing Boston
College as a potential Sweet Sixteen match-up. BC should have been a #3 seed or
even a #2 seed and they have all the makings of a championship squad. I like
Villanova a lot, but I think BC is the class of the region.
Upset Possibilities
The two Wisconsin teams, UW-Milwaukee and UW, should be able to spring upsets in
the 6/11 and 8/9 games, respectively. Both games will be contrasts in styles as
the Panthers’ up-tempo game could give the Sooners fits, while the Badgers’
methodical approach may wear down Arizona.
Intriguing Potential Match-ups
As good as both teams are, the Villanova/BC game might as well be a Final Four
or an Elite Eight match-up. I would also like to see Georgetown take on Ohio
State – that would be a real good test for the Buckeyes in the second round.
Dark Horse
I think Boston College will go to the Final Four, so they’re definitely my dark
horse from the Minneapolis Region. They just have too much size in Craig Smith
and Jared Dudley and I think they’ll be a nightmare to defend on short notice.
MY FINAL FOUR
At press time, I’ve decided on three of my Final Four teams. I like Duke
slightly over Texas in Atlanta, UConn to come out of D.C. and Boston College to
come out of Minneapolis. The toughest region to pick is Oakland, where I can
make a strong case for the top five seeds (Memphis, UCLA, Gonzaga, Kansas and
Pitt). At this point, I’ll take Duke over any of these five and BC slightly over
UConn. If Duke plays UConn, I think the Huskies have the advantage, but if they
face BC, I think they can repeat Sunday’s win.
WHERE’S THE BEEF?
Hofstra
Even though Hofstra beat George Mason twice in the last 10 days of the season,
the Patriots still got the at-large nod over the Pride. In the end, Hofstra
couldn’t overcome a weak strength of schedule (149), but it’s not like George
Mason played a tough schedule (120) either, so the Pride got jobbed.
Missouri State
With an RPI of 21 and a
Sagarin
ranking
of 25, Missouri State got hosed. They played a pretty tough schedule (49) in the
Missouri Valley Conference, but the Bears just didn’t have a big win to hang its
hat on. They also didn’t have any bad losses – all eight came against teams that
at least had a chance to make the tournament on Selection Sunday.
HOW DID THEY GET IN?
Air Force
The Falcons had a strength of schedule of 166 and had a Sagarin ranking
of 54. They did beat Miami and Georgia Tech, but neither of those teams made the
tourney, so it’s curious how the Falcons got an at-large bid but Missouri State
and Cincinnati did not. Some say that the “snub” discussion is pointless as none
of these teams would be a threat to go to the Final Four, but there’s always the
chance that they could have an impact on the tourney and that’s the most
important thing. Let’s hope that the Falcons justify their bid.
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