Decisions, Decisions: The top 50 keeper league players
01/01/2008
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Now that fantasy football season is over, it’s a fine time to look at keeper league values. Below is my list of the top 50 keeper league players, ranked from 50-1. Here are a couple things to keep in mind:
Youth matters. Sure, Terrell Owens might have a better ’08 than Braylon Edwards, but which player would you rather have in your keeper league? Owens has 2-3 good years left while Edwards should be a WR1 for the next 7-8 years, minimum.
Position depth can influence rankings. In every fantasy draft, RBs are snatched up early as there isn’t much depth at the position. A team can have two (or even three) productive WRs, but other than a few exceptions, teams generally only have one productive RB (if that). Also, since most fantasy rosters require two starters at RB, demand is higher than other positions, like QB, where there are 32 actual starters for 10-12 starting fantasy slots. This inflates the value of RBs relative to the other positions, and that’s accounted for in my rankings.
Note: These rankings are for a PPR scoring format such as the High Performance Scoring System at Antsports.
When figuring out which players to keep, it’s best to hold onto guys that will help you the most in the short term. But when deciding between two players with comparable value, go with the younger player. You don’t want a keeper roster full of guys on the downswing, or you’ll find yourself scrambling if they all start to falter at the same time. On the other hand, I’ve seen a few fantasy owners skew their rosters too young. They are constantly choosing potential over performance and their teams are never good enough to compete in the here and now.
With that in mind, before we dive into the top 50, let’s discuss a few guys that just missed the cut:
Laurence Maroney
Selvin Young
Michael Turner
Heading for unrestricted free agency, Michael “The Burner” Turner could see his value skyrocket this offseason if he signs with the right team. If he goes to a new team as the unchallenged starter, his ADP will probably climb into the third round. He’s a nice guy to target in a trade.
Likewise, Selvin Young’s stock would get a major boost if Travis Henry isn’t on the Broncos’ roster next season. Mike Shanahan has said that Young is a big part of the team’s long-term plans, but Henry signed a big contract prior to the ’07 season so there’s no telling who’ll be the RB1 in Denver next season.
Maroney (right) finished the season strong but was otherwise a huge disappointment in ’07. If Sammy Morris (or some other quality backup) is there, then the Pats could and probably will split the load like they did this season. He has the skills to be a top 10 back, but unless it’s clear that he’s going to get that type of work, he’s not worth a pick in the first four rounds.
Marvin Harrison
What to do with Marvin? He only appeared in five games this season due to a knee injury. He’ll be 35 at the start of the ’08 season and, prior to this year, he finished in the top 10 in eight consecutive seasons. Does he have one or two good years left or did we already witness the downfall of one of the greatest wideouts of all time? The playoffs should give us a good idea where Marvin’s stock is headed in the near future.
Rudi Johnson
The 1254 carries that Rudi got from 2003-06 caught up with him in ’07, as a hamstring injury caused him to miss six games. Even when he played, he wasn’t all that effective. He’s only 28, so it’s a little early for him to be breaking down. If the hamstring doesn’t become a chronic problem, Rudi should break back into the top 15 in ’08, so he may be worth the gamble if you can acquire him in a trade.
Earnest Graham
Graham didn’t take over as the Bucs’ RB1 until week 3, but he finished the season as a top 10 RB. His keeper value depends solely on what the team decides to do with Carnell Williams. It appears Graham is the better back, but Tampa Bay may decide to go with a RBBC or give the starting job back to Caddy. If Williams isn’t there in ’08, Graham’s value vaults into the 20’s.
Donald Driver
Driver’s number of catches held steady, but his yards were down a bit and he caught fewer than five TD for the first time in five years. It’s clear that Greg Jennings has taken over as the team’s main scoring threat, but Driver is still Brett Favre’s favorite target over the middle, which makes him a solid (if unspectacular) WR2 in PPR leagues.
Jerricho Cotchery
Laveranues Coles just turned 30 and showed signs of breaking down this season. Cotchery’s catches were down in ’07 and he only scored twice, but he increased his yards per catch and broke the 1000-yard barrier for the first time in his young career. If the Jets can get consistent play at QB, Cotch should develop into an 85-catch, 1200-yard WR.
Plaxico Burress
Due to his inconsistency, Burress always seems to have a better year than he actually has. In ’07, he got off to a torrid start, but he suffered a mid-season ankle injury that limited him to three good games in his last 10. He catches a lot of touchdowns but doesn’t catch enough balls to be a consistent WR1 in PPR leagues.
Tony Gonzalez
Gonzo keeps saying he’s only going to play another year, so the Chiefs will have to make major progress next season in order to convince him to play in ’09. He’s still a top tier TE but since he’s a short-timer, he doesn’t have huge value in keeper leagues.
50. Derek Anderson
49. Matt Hasselbeck
The Browns have a decision to make with Anderson. He broke out this season and was the catalyst for a very productive Cleveland offense. The Browns should lock him in to a long-term contract, but a late season mini-slide might convince the team to go with Brady Quinn instead. If Anderson lands elsewhere, his fantasy value will be affected.
Hasselbeck gets the slight nod over Anderson due to his strong play in the second half of the season and the stability of his claim on QB1 in Seattle. Mike Holmgren decided mid-season to start airing it out and Hass responded well.
48. Santonio Holmes
47. Calvin Johnson
46. Roddy White
45. Brandon Marshall
44. Greg Jennings
43. Dwayne Bowe
Call this the “Young and Talented” group. Marshall and Jennings are making a serious push to become their team’s WR1, while White and Bowe have already claimed that title (albeit in lesser passing attacks).
Save for Johnson (who might have the most upside of them all), everyone in this group finished in the top 30, and other than Marshall (whose value might be hindered by the return of a healthy Javon Walker), they should all see an uptick in their numbers next season.
42. Lendale White
The Titans want White to be their feature back but given White’s questionable focus and the presence of Chris Brown and Chris Henry, there are no guarantees. He gained 1224 total yards from scrimmage and scored seven times in ’07. If he’s able to build on those numbers next season, he’ll be good RB2 in most leagues.
41. Torry Holt
Holt went over 81 catches for the eighth consecutive season, but his yards were down (1096) and he clashed with new head coach Scott Linehan. He’ll be 32 when the ’08 season starts, so the end can’t be too far off. If he can stay healthy, he should be a borderline WR1 or a solid WR2 for the next two to three years, but if he starts struggling with injuries in training camp, it might be time to part ways with Torry.
40. Roy Williams
Williams struggled with his consistency before a knee sprain sidelined him for Detroit’s final four games. He was on pace to finish solidly in the top 15, which makes him a borderline WR1. His stock would likely take a dip if Mike Martz leaves the team, though he still has the talent to put up top-five numbers if things break his way.
39. Wes Welker
Welker finished in the top-10 in most PPR leagues and turned out to be a great complement to Randy Moss. He is savvy at creating space underneath and teams can’t afford to double-team him with Moss on the other side. He’s likely to remain undervalued this offseason because a good portion of fantasy owners might think his great season was just a fluke. Don’t be one of those owners.
38. Carson Palmer
37. Ben Roethlisberger
36. Drew Brees
Owners who stuck with Brees after his brutal start in the Saints’ first four games were rewarded with a serious hot streak to finish the season. This is his second consecutive great season, so it’s a trend, not an aberration.
Meanwhile, Roethlisberger bounced back from a rough ’06 to put up consistently terrific numbers in ’07. Considering he was the 11th or 12th QB off the board in most leagues, his top-five finish was a nice bonus for fantasy owners who waited until the seventh or eighth round to draft Big Ben.
Palmer (right) had an off year but still finished in the top 10 in most scoring formats. I think the Bengals’ offense will bounce back in ’08; there is just too much talent there.
All three guys will have ADPs in the late third or early fourth, and would be great picks in the fifth.
35. Jamal Lewis
After three consecutive mediocre RB2 seasons in Baltimore, Lewis found new life in Cleveland and developed into a solid RB1 option. He’ll be 29 at the start of the ’08 season so the end isn’t too far off, but he could put up RB1/RB2 numbers for another year or three. It looks like the Browns want to keep him, but keep an eye on his status this summer.
34. Terrell Owens
TO is a bona fide second-round pick in redraft formats, but the guy is 34, so he can’t have too many more top-five seasons left. (Right?) He’s going to hit a wall; it’s just a matter of when.
33. Kellen Winslow
32. Jason Witten
31. Antonio Gates
The race for best TE in fantasy football got a lot tighter this season. I think I’d still take Gates first, but if you measure a TE by the number of clunker games he puts up, Antonio didn’t do so well. Witten and Winslow were far more consistent (though Winslow struggled in weeks 13-15). For his part, Witten had the best year of any TE, real or fantasy, and he’s an absolute monster in PPR leagues.
In years past, Gates’ ADP climbed into the beginning of the third round, but now that there are four (if you count Gonzo) TE in that first tier, I suspect that the first TE run won’t start until the late third or early fourth.
30. Ryan Grant
It looks like the Packers have found something in Grant, an undrafted rookie free agent they acquired from the Giants. Although he didn’t take over as the team’s starter until week 8, he finished the season in the top-20 in most scoring formats. Over the next nine games, he rushed for 872 yards and seven scores. Project that production over a full season and Grant would have been fantasy’s RB3. His value probably isn’t as strong as some of the bigger names, but his future is just as bright.
29. Anquan Boldin
28. Andre Johnson
27. Marques Colston
Call this group the “Young and Super-Talented” group. Boldin’s season was hindered by a knee injury but his per-game production was still in the 90+ catch, 1100+ yard range. The main question now with Boldin is his health; he has missed significant parts of two of his five seasons and isn’t as dependable of a pick as he was last summer.
Johnson (right) missed almost half the season with his own injury but still finished in the top 30 and would have been a top-five WR had he stayed healthy. Like the rest of the Saints, Colston got off to a slow start but once New Orleans found its groove, he put together a string of terrific games. All three guys are looking at ADPs in the third round.
26. Brandon Jacobs
25. Willie Parker
24. Marshawn Lynch
Jacobs missed time with two different injuries but looks great when he plays. Parker’s TD rate plummeted and he doesn’t catch many passes, but he might have led the league in rushing had he stayed healthy. Lynch missed some time with injuries but had the best season by a rookie RB not named Adrian Peterson. Depending on how his rehab goes, Parker’s ADP might sneak into the first round, but Jacobs and Lynch should be second (or very early third) round picks come August.
23. Maurice Jones-Drew
Even though Jones-Drew played second fiddle to Fred Taylor, he still put up top 15 RB numbers. His ADP will linger in the second or third round as long as Taylor is around, but once he gets the job to himself, he’ll be a solid first-round pick. The Jags have a great running game and there appears to be room for both players for the time being.
22. Marion Barber III
He’s still splitting carries with Julius Jones so if Jones hangs around in ’08, Barber’s upside is somewhat limited. Still, he was a top-10 back this season, so there’s no reason to think that he won’t be a solid RB1 next year. I’d love to see what this guy could do with 250+ carries, but the two-back system has worked for Dallas, so there isn’t much incentive to change.
21. Reggie Bush
Bush’s knee injury derailed an otherwise solid fantasy season. He’s a poor man’s Brian Westbrook and would be wise to watch how Westy avoids contact even when he runs between the tackles. Westbrook takes yards when he can get them and manages to avoid a lot of hits by going down early. Bush runs upright and always seems to be looking to break the big play, even when it’s not there. Still, he’s a special talent and is quite valuable in PPR leagues since he’s a beast in the passing game.
20. Willis McGahee
McGahee took over as RB1 in Baltimore and, despite the team’s problems, he had a very impressive season. He set a career high for catches (43), which put him in the top 10 for the first time since his rookie season. Given his week-to-week consistency, he’ll be one of the safer picks in the late first or early second in ’08 fantasy drafts.
19. Ronnie Brown
Even with two mediocre games to start the year, Brown was the top fantasy back before a torn ACL cut his season short in week 7. During that span, he averaged 142 yards from scrimmage and 0.7 TD per game, and was a dangerous threat in the passing game (4.0 catches per contest). Assuming his rehab progresses as planned, he should be a second-round fantasy pick come August. If he looks good in the preseason, he could sneak into the first round.
18. Steve Smith
Smith didn’t have a great year but those fantasy owners lucky enough to have him in their starting lineup in week 16 were rewarded with a huge game. His numbers were down because of poor QB play, and I think the Panthers will figure that out in the offseason. Just getting Jake Delhomme back would be a huge upgrade over David Carr, Matt Moore and Vinny Testaverde.
17. Larry Fitzgerald
Concerns about Fitzgerald’s involvement in Ken Whisenhunt’s new offense were overstated as the talented wideout racked up 100 catches for 1409 yards and 10 scores. He is the centerpiece of the Arizona offense going forward and will be a solid WR1 in most fantasy leagues for the next several years.
16. Larry Johnson
Due to the 416 carries he received in ’06 (and the fact that he was a holdout last August), there were a lot of durability concerns about LJ heading into the season. Those concerns turned out to be quite valid as a foot injury limited Johnson to just 158 carries in eight games. Being shut down isn’t all bad for LJ’s fantasy value, though. Johnson has had a lot of time to recover and should be ready to roll next season.
15. Chad Johnson
14. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
It sure seemed like CJ had an off season, but he still finished the season as WR6. Meanwhile, Housh established himself as a bona fide top-10 WR and a more consistent fantasy option than his counterpart. Those owners drafting in the late second round may have a shot at both guys, which would provide the foundation for a potent receiving corps and insurance if either guy goes down with an injury. The Bengals’ offense is bound to bounce back, so I wouldn’t be leery of either player on draft day.
13. Frank Gore
Gore didn’t come close to matching the 2000 total yards he racked up in ’06, but the 836 total yards and three TD he posted in the final six games thrust him back into the top 10 at his position. He’s also a dangerous threat in the passing game, which will make him a late-first round pick in 2008 fantasy drafts. The main knock against Gore is the talent around him. If they don’t get good QB play next season, Gore won’t be able to flourish like we all know he can.
12. Clinton Portis
Many fantasy owners were worried about Portis last summer, so much so that fantasy’s surprise RB4 was readily available in the fourth round. He responded with a terrific, consistent season and should be a premier producer next season. Don’t be surprised if his ADP creeps back into the first round this summer.
11. Braylon Edwards
10. Randy Moss
Due to his undependability, I have trouble ranking Moss ahead of Edwards, but he had a wonderful first season in New England and there’s no reason to doubt similar numbers in ’08. His preseason hamstring injury pushed his ADP into the fourth or fifth rounds in most fantasy leagues, and at that point in the draft, owners who rolled the dice were rewarded with the top fantasy WR in 2007.
Edwards fits the profile of a wideout having a breakout season in his third year. His season was enhanced by the terrific play of Derek Anderson at QB, and his value will take a little bit of a hit if Anderson leaves this offseason. For his part, Edwards should be a solid WR1 for the next seven to 10 years, making him a very valuable commodity in keeper leagues.
9. Tony Romo
Some of Romo’s value depends on the presence of Jason Garrett. If Garrett takes a head coaching job somewhere, it’s possible that Romo will struggle with a new offensive coordinator. Even with Garrett gone, Romo will still have a great running game and several dangerous weapons in the passing game, so there’s no reason to think that he won’t have a top-three or -four season in ’08. (Assuming whatever starlet he’s dating at the time doesn’t show up to his games, of course.)
8. Steven Jackson
Jackson’s mid-season injury knocked most of his owners out of playoff contention, but he had a solid late-season run that proved that he’s still a force to be reckoned with. He’s a serious threat in the passing game and is still a first-round pick if he’s healthy going into the ’08 season.
7. Reggie Wayne
Marvin Harrison’s extended absence allowed Wayne to become the stud WR we always knew he was. This was the first season that I advocated drafting Wayne ahead of Harrison. Marvin has been so good for so long that it was just a matter of time before he had a down year, so if both guys are available, Wayne was (and is) clearly the better option.
6. Peyton Manning
5. Tom Brady
With the additions of Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth, along with the Pats’ propensity to pass the ball on every down, Brady surpassed Manning as the top fantasy QB. Come August, I suspect Brady’s ADP will be solidly in the first round, while Manning’s will drop into the second. The stocks of Carson Palmer and Marc Bulger have taken a dump, which will make drafting Brady or Manning (or even Romo) a little more appealing in the first two rounds.
4. Adrian Peterson
3. Joseph Addai
It’s a tough call between Addai and Peterson. In his rookie season, the latter proved that he’s at least the second-best natural runner in the league. He’s still injury-prone and Chester Taylor’s presence depresses his value, but Minnesota’s offensive line is terrific and his future is bright, assuming the Vikings can assemble some sort of a passing attack. A late season mini-slide is a little worrisome.
Addai was a stud for much of the season and was one of the few first-round picks who actually played like a first rounder. He missed a little time with injuries but proved that he could handle a full load. In Indy’s offense, he’s guaranteed to have a ton of scoring chances and will consistently be a threat in the passing game. Aside from getting nicked up, the only knock on him is that every year the Colts seem to be wrapping their season up in week 14 or 15, which isn’t good for those counting on Addai in their fantasy playoffs.
2. Brian Westbrook
Westy is golden in PPR leagues where he racks up tons of points in the passing game. This makes him especially consistent because we know he’ll get 3-5 catches for 30-50 yards in just about every game. That’s 6-10 sure points every week. He has a rep for being injury-prone but he has played in at least 12 games in each of his first six seasons, and has a clear (and talented) handcuff, Correll Buckhalter, who doesn’t need to be drafted until the later rounds.
1. LaDainian Tomlinson
Sure, he had an off year, but he still put up big numbers; they just weren’t what we’re used to. Westy, Peterson and Addai are hot on his trail, but LT is durable and uber-talented, and other than a couple of slight hammy twinges, he hasn’t shown any signs of breaking down. Barring an injury, he’ll be the consensus #1 pick this summer and should give his owners the inside track to a championship.
Send questions and comments to jpaulsen@bullz-eye.com.