The Hype Machine II: Electric Boogaloo
10/19/2007
Paulsen Home / Sports Channel / Bullz-Eye Home
In an early September column, “The Hype Machine,” I highlighted 10 players who received a lot of hype in fantasy circles this summer. I outlined the reasons to be optimistic, the reasons to be pessimistic and provided a bottom line for each player. It’s always fun to take a look back, so let’s peruse the list and see how these hyped players are doing now that the season is six weeks old.
Note: For each player, I’ve included the Antsports.com August ADP for a 12-team, PPR format, along with the positional ranking (both draft and actual). I’ve also included a grade for the pick, assuming the player was taken at his ADP.
Vincent Jackson, Chargers
ADP: 7.06, Draft: WR28, Actual: WR30
On the surface, Jackson’s performance doesn’t seem like too much of a disappointment, but it’s important to remember that he hasn’t yet had his bye, so his actual positional ranking is a bit misleading. Simply stated, Jackson has had just two good games (6-98-1 against the Packers and 3-84-1 against the Broncos) and four mediocre to bad games. His schedule (CHI, NE, GB, KC, DEN and OAK) has been pretty brutal, so there is reason for optimism. However, he is averaging 5.8 targets a game, and when that’s compared to the average targets for Antonio Gates (9.0) and LaDainian Tomlinson (6.3), it’s apparent that Jackson is the third option in the Chargers’ passing attack. Making matters worse, his 57% completion rate is very average. Verdict: Jackson hasn’t emerged as an every week starter, but he isn’t a bust either. He’s a WR3 or a WR4 with some upside, but he’s not very dependable. Going forward, the schedule looks a little easier and the Chargers’ offense is starting to click, so his numbers could improve, though San Diego’s acquisition of Chris Chambers really throws everything up in the air. Grade: C-
Vernon Davis, 49ers
ADP: 7.02, Draft: TE5, Actual: TE39
Davis has missed the last three games with a knee sprain, but even if you take his production over the first three games and project it over the full six, he’d still be TE22 at best. Davis showed some life against the Rams, turning eight targets into four catches for 56 yards, but left the game with the aforementioned knee injury. Part of the problem is the 49ers offense. Even before Davis and Alex Smith were injured, it simply wasn’t clicking. Verdict: At some point, Davis is probably going to be a great fantasy TE, but it just doesn’t look like it’s going to be this season. However, once he comes back, if he gets eight targets a game, he could be productive. Even so, the hype surrounding him this summer caused a lot of owners to pass on guys like Kellen Winslow, Chris Cooley and Jason Witten to take Davis, and they’re surely regretting that pick right now. Grade: D
Laurence Maroney, Patriots
ADP: 1.10, Draft: RB10, Actual: RB63
Man, is Maroney a disappointment! He was a first round fantasy pick who was supposed to take most of Corey Dillon’s work. Instead, he found himself splitting time with Sammy Morris for three games before getting hurt. Projecting his average over a full six games would put him at RB32, so even if he didn’t get hurt, he’d still be considered a bust. Verdict: Maroney owners are struggling all over the country unless they scored later in the draft with guys like Adrian Peterson, Marion Barber or LaMont Jordan, or if they picked up Sammy Morris as a handcuff. Morris is out for two weeks now with a chest injury, so Maroney could hold some value during that span if he can get back on the field. But that’s a big “if.”
Grade: D
D.J. Hackett, Seahawks
ADP: 9.01, Draft: WR36, Actual: WR??
Hackett began the season as the starting WR opposite Deion Branch. He was supposed to get all (or most) of Darrell Jackson’s work, but after six games, Hackett has one catch for seven yards and has missed the last five games with a high ankle sprain. He hasn’t even been able to crack the top 100 at his position. Verdict: While Hackett has been out, Deion Branch, Bobby Engram and Nate Burleson have all had big games, so there’s no telling where he’ll fit in once he returns to the field. Given the good play by Engram and Burleson, it may take Hackett a while to earn back his starting spot. Grade: F
Tony Romo, Cowboys
ADP: 6.10, Draft: QB8, Actual: QB2
I’m the first to admit I wasn’t too high on Romo this year. I did end up with him in one league, but on my other teams I took Peyton Manning in the late first/early second or waited until 10 or 11 QBs were off the board before grabbing someone like Ben Roethlisberger. Simply stated, Romo has been phenomenal and is on pace to throw for 4,552 yards and 40 TD. Verdict: Anytime you can get QB2 in the 6th round, you’re doing pretty well for yourself. His remaining schedule is mixed, but the only reason to expect a dropoff is that he’ll probably fall back into the stratosphere at some point. Considering the Cowboys’ decision to wait on an extension, it looks like Romo made himself some serious dough this year. Grade: A+
Cedric Benson, Bears
ADP: 3.02, Draft: RB18, Actual: RB19
All things considered, Benson hasn’t been a huge disappointment. He has yet to have his bye, so he’s actually missing his preseason expectations by a bit more, but he’s getting enough work to make him an adequate RB2 in most fantasy leagues. With Thomas Jones gone the starting job is his, but he hasn’t really performed up to his predecessor’s standards. Benson is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry, which is well off Jones’ 4.1 ypc last season. Verdict: Benson’s upcoming schedule includes the Lions, Raiders, Seahawks and Broncos, so he could be in for some good games. He’s a grinder who lacks burst, so it doesn’t seem likely that he’s going to break any long runs. He’s a guy you can count on for a bunch of touches, which makes him dependable yet unexciting. Grade: C-
Brandon Jacobs, Giants
ADP: 3.07, Draft: RB20, Actual: RB59
Jacobs missed three games with a knee injury, but has come back and played pretty well. When his last two games are projected out over a six game span, he would be RB13, so there is reason for optimism. However, he was dinged up again on Monday night, so it’s starting to look like he’s injury-prone. Verdict: He’s a good fantasy player when healthy, but the Giants have two other RBs (Derrick Ward and Reuben Droughns) who have played well in his place. The Giants may form a committee to try to keep all three guys fresh, though Jacobs figures to get most of the goal line work when he’s in the game. Grade: D
Jerious Norwood, Falcons
ADP: 5.08, Draft: RB27, Actual: RB25
Norwood’s positional rankings are a little misleading. He was on pace to be RB41 before his six-carry, 87-yard (and a TD) performance on Monday night. Of course, it’s doubtful that any of his owners had the foresight to start him after such a slow start to the season. He hasn’t established himself as RB1 in Atlanta and is averaging just 9.2 touches per game. That’s not going to get it done. Verdict: Before Monday night’s game, he was averaging a healthy 4.2 yards per carry compared to Warrick Dunn’s 3.2 ypc, so it appears that Bobby Petrino simply trusts Dunn more. Norwood showed his explosiveness on a 67-yard run in the first quarter against the Giants, upping his season ypc to 5.7. We’ll see if this makes him a bigger part of the Falcons’ offensive attack. Grade: C-
Bernard Berrian, Bears
ADP: 8.02, Draft: WR31, Actual: WR22
Berrian has caught at least five passes in five of his team’s six games, and his only dud performance (@ GB) was partly due to an injury that knocked him out of the game. He is the clear WR1 in Chicago, though the team’s two tight ends – Desmond Clark and Greg Olsen – provide strong competition for targets. He’s a better route runner than a year ago, so he’s not just a one-dimensional deep threat anymore. Verdict: Along with Tony Romo, Berrian is a player on this list who has clearly worked out. There were concerns that Berrian’s numbers would suffer when Brian Griese entered the lineup, but Griese has targeted Berrian 25 times in three games. He hasn’t yet had his bye, but he was still a nice pick in the seventh or eighth. Grade: B
Vince Young, Titans
ADP: 7.04, Draft: QB10, Actual: QB25
Last season, Young averaged 39.4 yards and 0.5 rush TD once he took over as the Titans starter. This season, he’s averaging 25.8 yards and 0.2 rush TD. Teams have had a full offseason to study film on Young and it looks like they’ve identified his tendencies. Also, the team decided to let Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade go and failed to acquire any good weapons in the passing game. Adding to his troubles, Young now has a strained quad and isn’t practicing. Verdict: With all the depth at the QB position, it’s not hard to fall from QB10 to QB25. With a few big games, Young could get back to solid starter status, but right now things aren’t looking too good. Grade: D
What’s the lesson? Don’t believe the hype.
Two players on this list – Romo and Berrian – have exceeded expectations. Three players – Jackson, Benson and Norwood – are only mildly disappointing, while the remaining five are big disappointments. Considering the ADP of both Romo (6.10) and Berrian (8.02), it’s wise to spend the middle or later picks rolling the dice on these high-risk/high-reward players. Any Maroney owner will tell you, it’s tough to overcome a first round bust.
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